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06-01-2012, 05:04 PM
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McTankel
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Buffalo Sabres Player Usage Charts

http://sites.google.com/site/hockeya...attredirects=2

From the Sabres section, found this extremely interesting and may be the reason we missed the playoffs last year. I Advise ALL to read this. Some amazing points in here. I posted the Sabres only section if you do not want to go through the link. Enjoy!

Quote:
It is evident here that Lindy Ruff does not utilize zone starts to optimize players’ talents as much as other coaches like Alain Vigneault or Joel Quenneville. Ruff likes to have well-rounded players that he can put on the ice in any situation; as such, he often does not tend to employ certain players almost exclusively in specific situations as Vigneault does with Malhotra in the defensive zone or the Sedins in the offensive zone. Granted, Buffalo does not have anybody of the Sedin’s caliber but it would be interesting to see players like Hodgson, Vanek, and Ennis starting 60+% of their shifts in the offensive zone.

Ruff also tends to shelter rookies, which is not at all uncommon but Ruff may do so more consistently than most other coaches. We consider “sheltered” to be the bottom right quadrant; that is an offensive zone start percentage greater than 50% and CorsiQoC less than 0. There are five players on the Sabres who qualified as rookies this season: Adam, Foligno, McNabb, Tropp, and Hodgson. Hodgson is the only player of those five rookies who doesn’t fall in the quadrant of the easiest minutes*. Also, of the six players in that “sheltered” quadrant, four of them happen to be rookies.

Despite Ruff’s relatively conservative ways when it comes to zone starts, there are still some obvious trends on which players he tends to give the heavy lifting minutes in the defensive zone and which players he tends to shelter. You can see here than he actively shelters Luke Adam, Brad Boyes, and Marcus Foligno. All three of them start in the offensive zone ~55% of the time while facing relatively weak competition. One the other side, Nathan Gerbe and Patrick Kaleta comprised two-thirds of the Sabres very effective shutdown line (along with Paul Gaustad) and that is exhibited in this chart as Kaleta and Gerbe received the most difficult minutes among forwards. Joining those two in the defensive ranks are Robyn Regehr and Andrej Sekera. Each of these four players were trusted by Ruff to take care of business in their own zone while facing quite difficult competition....
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There are a few players of particular interest from this chart: Luke Adam, Robyn Regehr, and Andrej Sekera. This chart gives rise to some very interesting numbers that tend to fly in the face of common perception of how these players were handled or how well they performed this season
.


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The common perception around the league is that Robyn Regehr had a very poor season in his first year in Buffalo. Who can blame them? Five points and a -12 in 76 games paints a pretty ugly picture. Only Mike Weber finished with a worse +/- and five points in 76 games is Regehr’s worst total since his sophomore season over a decade ago. A casual glance at this player usage chart visualizes the kind of minutes Robyn Regehr faced this season. He was Lindy Ruff’s workhorse, he handled the minutes that most of the other defensemen couldn’t handle. Nobody started in the defensive zone more often that Regehr among defensemen and nobody on the team faced more difficult competition than Regehr. He was given a clearly defined role and his 2.01 goals against per 60 minutes of ES time (2nd best among defensemen) speaks to his success at the task he was given. One contributing factor to his brutal +/- is the fact that Regehr was put on the ice for one reason and one reason only, to defend the other teams top players and keep the puck out of his net. As a result, the team did not produce much offense with Regehr on the ice. Regehr’s 23.3 shots for/60 min was 2nd worst on the team (behind only Hecht) and the team’s shooting percentage of 6.03 with Regehr on the ice is one of the worst as well. He had a clearly defined role and he executed that role extremely well
.


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Lindy Ruff has been said to make his forwards responsible for two-way hockey (i.e. play offensive and defensive assignments) when they are on the ice. The chart above supports this, by showing how the majority of top six forwards (Ennis, Hodgson, Pominville, Roy, Stafford, and Vanek) were not sheltered and had to face positive QoC when on the ice.
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Nathan Gerbe and Pat Kaleta had the most defensive zone starts and the highest QoC among all forwards, which supports Ruff use of them as a “shut-down” forward line. This was most clearly seen before the trade deadline when Paul Gaustad centered this line before his trade to Nashville.
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Robyn Regher and Andrej Sekera had the toughest competition and least offensive zone starts of all the defensemen.
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...but players like Ville Leino and Cody Hodgson belong in the offensive zone the majority of the time. And if you can't use them that way, your GM shouldn't acquire them. The chart may even suggest that the GM and coach aren't exactly on the same page.


Last edited by Chainshot: 06-02-2012 at 10:14 AM. Reason: Edits for legal content...
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06-01-2012, 05:41 PM
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Originally Posted by Awwufelloff View Post
http://sites.google.com/site/hockeya...attredirects=2

From the Sabres section, found this extremely interesting and may be the reason we missed the playoffs last year. I Advise ALL to read this. Some amazing points in here. I posted the Sabres only section if you do not want to go through the link. Enjoy! ...
Bravo! Good breakdown of the findings. I too dislike Ruff's "system". Rather than exploit weaker lines with his best forwards he forces them into difficult matchups and positions thereby negating many offensive opportunities by instead giving them out to the likes of Matt Ellis, my least favorite Sabre in 5 years.


Last edited by Chainshot: 06-02-2012 at 10:10 AM.
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06-01-2012, 06:19 PM
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I didn't realize how overwhelming the shutdown role played by Gerbe the entire year was. Wow.

Seeing this, I fully expect the Sabres to pursue a shutdown center to play with him and Kaleta as our 4th line.

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06-01-2012, 07:22 PM
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Originally Posted by buffalowing88 View Post
Bravo! Good breakdown of the findings. I too dislike Ruff's "system". Rather than exploit weaker lines with his best forwards he forces them into difficult matchups and positions thereby negating many offensive opportunities by instead giving them out to the likes of Matt Ellis, my least favorite Sabre in 5 years.
Agreed, especially the praise to the OP. I still can't always tell who is out on the ice with my TV! This really helps put things into perspective.

Imagine what this team could accomplish with a great forecheck like the Devils and Kings have?

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06-01-2012, 07:31 PM
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Originally Posted by Husko View Post
I didn't realize how overwhelming the shutdown role played by Gerbe the entire year was. Wow.

Seeing this, I fully expect the Sabres to pursue a shutdown center to play with him and Kaleta as our 4th line.
i used those numbers mid season to make a point of the trust that Ruff was putting in a young Gerbe, and a "4th line" Kaleta... they, along with Goose, were playing a straight up shut down line role for a large portion of the season, and it never did seem to get the recognition it deserved.

Put Jay McClement in between them and you have a very good checking line

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06-01-2012, 09:02 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ZZamboni View Post
A good read, and nice solid data. Thanks for posting..





On a different, yet related note. Why are some posters allowed to cut and paste or quote huge writeups, and other posters are edited down to 1/4 of what is in the first post

Seems confusing and inconsistent :shrug:
I don't know. This is my first time posting such a large excerpt. But every single bit of this information is so relevant to this team, I thought every bit of it was needed. Also with this, the link portion is 100 pages and features every team. I made it easier by posting the only relevant information which is our team.

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06-02-2012, 01:36 AM
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I was the "Derek Jedamski" portion of that input.

There is some really good stuff in there for every team, I would strongly advise taking a glance through there. I also did a post on my blog yesterday utilizing player usage charts to determine role changes from last season to this season.

Not sure if I'm allowed to post links, I can't remember the rules...but I'm going to try this and see if I get warned...

http://www.thehosers.com/2012/05/ozq...le-shifts.html

Quote:
One of the many insights you can gather from player usage charts is role changes. An increase in quality of competition along with a decrease in offensive zone starts likely means increased defensive responsibility for a player, many times that is indicative of a coach placing that player in a defensive or shutdown role. On the other side, an increase in offensive zone faceoffs likely means that player is taking on a bigger role in the offense.

Analyzing role changes is really quite simple if given the right information, luckily all of that information is already provided in a player usage chart. We took each player's offensive zone start percentage and CorsiRelQoC from 2011-2012 and then subtracted his 2010-2011 o-zone start percentage and CorsiRelQoC. So these numbers on the chart are each player's change from last season to this season. The bubbles also account for the change in Relative Corsi rating. Just as they were above, large blue bubble means large increase in CorsiRel this season, small white would mean a slightly regression in CorsiRel from last season.

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06-02-2012, 01:43 AM
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Like I said in the last thread, good until the last page of analysis. Ennis wasn't the team's #1 center, in minutes played or competition faced. And why would you want Myers against the Crosby's/Giroux's when you already had two guys doing well in the shutdown role the kid couldn't hold down early in the year? Looking at production before role is a no-no.

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06-03-2012, 02:46 AM
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Too many forwards come from ther teams and struggle in Lindy Ruffs system.

Ville Lieno goes from 19 goals the previous season to 8 in Buffalo and has fewer points than Vanek has goals when Vanek has a down year.

Boyes, Torres, Niedermyer, Moore, Hodson have all produced less when coming from other teams into Ruff's system

Too many inconsistencies from other players are another problem which brings me back to coaching and Ruff's system.

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06-03-2012, 03:04 AM
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Too many players played multiple positions causing lack of continuity.
Too many forwards played both wing positions or center and wing or all 3 forward positions. The lines were constantly juggled where it's almost like players didn't know from shift to shift who they were playing with or where they were suppose to play or what their responsibilities on that shift was. Too much thinking for the players leads to chaos and turnovers.

For example Vanek played left wing most of his career. Tropp played mostly right wing most of his career. So Ruff decides to put Vanek at the right wing and Tropp on the left wing with Hodson in the middle. Why would Ruff put those wingers on their opposite wings? Tropp struggled to accept passes to his backhand while playing the left wing. Vanek struggled the second half of the season playing much of it on the right wing. It makes no sense.

It's like Ruff doesn't know who to play with who or where the best position for his players are to get the most out of them.

Lieno questioning Ruff's system is interesting too.
http://www.buffalonews.com/sports/co...icle823322.ece


Last edited by Superhero: 06-03-2012 at 03:30 AM.
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06-03-2012, 05:38 AM
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Too many forwards come from ther teams and struggle in Lindy Ruffs system.

Ville Lieno goes from 19 goals the previous season to 8 in Buffalo and has fewer points than Vanek has goals when Vanek has a down year.

Boyes, Torres, Niedermyer, Moore, Hodson have all produced less when coming from other teams into Ruff's system

Too many inconsistencies from other players are another problem which brings me back to coaching and Ruff's system.
I disagree with this analysis entirely. The only case in which you could possibly point at Ruff would be Leino.

Boyes' career was spiraling when we acquired him. He was given every chance to succeed, but was ultimately placed on the fourth line because he just didn't produce - even with ample PP time. Torres was out of shape and just awful when he was brought in. Niedermayer was old and for the most part played as expected. Dom Moore had a broken wrist when in Buffalo and only put up big numbers in Toronto because he was used as a top-6 center.

And how in the world can you include Cody Hodgson in this group. Hodgson was riding an awful cold streak when we brought him in. His lack of production had nothing to do with Ruff. And I'm not even a Ruff fan.

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06-03-2012, 10:16 AM
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I kind of agree with OP. I had a similar theory. I said that Ruff isn't coaching the players/team in the way it would be most effective. The Sabres have a lot of scoring power when they want to play. IE Vanek, Pom, Ennis, CoHo could be. Ehrhoff is a threat on the blueline.Stafford if he stays consistent could be good as well. Not sure about roy. But I feel like he puts them out in bad situations and less than ideal mtchups. Too defensie maybe. Not enough structure in the offense.

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06-03-2012, 10:44 AM
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One of the guys who popped out at me in this study was Brandon Dubinsky. Despite a high quality of competition, and a low percentage of offensive-zone starts, he still had a great Relative Corsi. Over his career he's had a very good FO%--in a sample size far more significant than Leino's--and you know he'll be defensively responsible after playing Torts' system. His lower offensive numbers were largely a product of an outlier in shooting%: he was at 7.1% after two seasons of 12.1% and 11.9%, respectively. I fully expect that to correct itself over time, and Dubinsky to progress to his mean. He's a 45-50 pt, two-way center with size.

If the Rags make him available, I could see Darcy kicking the tires. He could be the "center with size" to play center along with Hodgson and Ennis that Regier was alluding to.

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06-03-2012, 12:19 PM
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Wow, this was really insightful.

Anyone have link to the website this game from? The one in the OP is just a direct download link.


Last edited by HockeyH3aven: 06-03-2012 at 03:32 PM.
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06-03-2012, 12:49 PM
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Originally Posted by kpatterson14206 View Post
Wow, this was really insightful?

Anyone have link to the website this game from? The one in the OP is just a direct download link.
Hockey Abstract. On phone, else I'd link it.

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06-03-2012, 01:07 PM
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Originally Posted by buffalowing88 View Post
Matt Ellis, my least favorite Sabre in 5 years.
And here you have it, the elusive "wrong opinion."

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06-03-2012, 03:06 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kpatterson14206 View Post
Wow, this was really insightful?

Anyone have link to the website this game from? The one in the OP is just a direct download link.
https://sites.google.com/site/hockeyabstract/

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06-03-2012, 03:20 PM
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Originally Posted by Zip15 View Post
One of the guys who popped out at me in this study was Brandon Dubinsky. Despite a high quality of competition, and a low percentage of offensive-zone starts, he still had a great Relative Corsi. Over his career he's had a very good FO%--in a sample size far more significant than Leino's--and you know he'll be defensively responsible after playing Torts' system. His lower offensive numbers were largely a product of an outlier in shooting%: he was at 7.1% after two seasons of 12.1% and 11.9%, respectively. I fully expect that to correct itself over time, and Dubinsky to progress to his mean. He's a 45-50 pt, two-way center with size.

If the Rags make him available, I could see Darcy kicking the tires. He could be the "center with size" to play center along with Hodgson and Ennis that Regier was alluding to.
Dubinsky is a good two-way player. He seems like a realistic target and, like Staal, would fit nicely next to Pominville at both ES and on the PK.

Offensively, he could be a nice little reclamation project. Playing with Pominville wouldn't hurt.

Offensively, it could be a nice little reclamation project. Playing next to

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06-03-2012, 03:31 PM
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Originally Posted by Jame View Post
i used those numbers mid season to make a point of the trust that Ruff was putting in a young Gerbe, and a "4th line" Kaleta... they, along with Goose, were playing a straight up shut down line role for a large portion of the season, and it never did seem to get the recognition it deserved.

Put Jay McClement in between them and you have a very good checking line
Problem with McClement is, though he had a high number of defensive zone starts, he got dominated by secondary lines; he had the lowest QualComp of all the Avs' non-grinder forwards, and his Relative Corsi was poor, as well. Some of that is to be expected given that he was starting in the defensive zone so frequently, but that's not an encouraging sign if we were to sign him. Gerbe and Kaleta were deployed against other teams' better players--Gerbe had the highest QualComp of LWs, Kaleta second amongst RWs. Based on this data, one has to wonder whether McClement could handle that role. It seems that Dom Moore may be a better option, because he can match up with better competition while taking a high number of defensive zone starts. I also like Moore's postseason experience, as well.

The data also suggests that conventional wisdom that Jeff Halpern had a poor season was incorrect. Halpern started fewer than 40% of his shifts in the offensive zone, played above-average competition, and still had a positive Relative Corsi. I think I'd prefer Halpern at $600k to McClement at $1.4m.

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06-03-2012, 03:37 PM
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Originally Posted by Fatal System Ehrhoff View Post
And here you have it, the elusive "wrong opinion."
My hatred of Matt Ellis is by no means rational nor defendable. I'm sure he's a perfectly adequate player for his role/salary. That being said I just personally can't stand when players who are physically incapable of creating offense are on the ice. I felt the same way about Paille before him.

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06-03-2012, 09:30 PM
  #21
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I disagree with this analysis entirely. The only case in which you could possibly point at Ruff would be Leino.

Boyes' career was spiraling when we acquired him. He was given every chance to succeed, but was ultimately placed on the fourth line because he just didn't produce - even with ample PP time. Torres was out of shape and just awful when he was brought in. Niedermayer was old and for the most part played as expected. Dom Moore had a broken wrist when in Buffalo and only put up big numbers in Toronto because he was used as a top-6 center.

And how in the world can you include Cody Hodgson in this group. Hodgson was riding an awful cold streak when we brought him in. His lack of production had nothing to do with Ruff. And I'm not even a Ruff fan.
Torres had 19 goals the season he was brought to the Sabres and had the more than anyone on the team. All of the sudden he becomes a Sabre and is fat and out of shape to where he scores only 0 or 1 goal the rest of the season. Come on. Then he showed he can score again the following season.

Niedermyer scored half the goals here compared to his previous season. It was only 1 year later.

Hodson gets here and scores at a slower pace than he did in Vancoover and his plus minus took a nose dive

Moore was having the best year of his career then gets here and can't score.

You are making excuses for too many players. The problem is Ruff.

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06-03-2012, 09:38 PM
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Originally Posted by Superhero View Post
Torres had 19 goals the season he was brought to the Sabres and had the more than anyone on the team. All of the sudden he becomes a Sabre and is fat and out of shape to where he scores only 0 or 1 goal the rest of the season. Come on. Then he showed he can score again the following season.

Niedermyer scored half the goals here compared to his previous season. It was only 1 year later.

Hodson gets here and scores at a slower pace than he did in Vancoover and his plus minus took a nose dive

Moore was having the best year of his career then gets here and can't score.

You are making excuses for too many players. The problem is Ruff.
Until you can spell Hodgson's name correctly you should refrain from this horrid argument.

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06-04-2012, 12:00 PM
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Originally Posted by Zip15 View Post
One of the guys who popped out at me in this study was Brandon Dubinsky. Despite a high quality of competition, and a low percentage of offensive-zone starts, he still had a great Relative Corsi. Over his career he's had a very good FO%--in a sample size far more significant than Leino's--and you know he'll be defensively responsible after playing Torts' system. His lower offensive numbers were largely a product of an outlier in shooting%: he was at 7.1% after two seasons of 12.1% and 11.9%, respectively. I fully expect that to correct itself over time, and Dubinsky to progress to his mean. He's a 45-50 pt, two-way center with size.

If the Rags make him available, I could see Darcy kicking the tires. He could be the "center with size" to play center along with Hodgson and Ennis that Regier was alluding to.
big pass on dubinsky from me. dude's a turd. while he has size (i suppose) he doesn't really play like it. more of the same. no one in the league worries about playing against dubinsky.

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06-04-2012, 12:08 PM
  #24
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big pass on dubinsky from me. dude's a turd. while he has size (i suppose) he doesn't really play like it. more of the same. no one in the league worries about playing against dubinsky.
If Torterella doesn't like him... it should be a concern.

Dubinsky doesn't block shots, and isn't particularly good at any one thing...

While the need for someone to play center is near desperate for the Sabres... I do worry that Dubinsky would be another Ville Leino. (bad fit)

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06-04-2012, 01:06 PM
  #25
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Torres had 19 goals the season he was brought to the Sabres and had the more than anyone on the team. All of the sudden he becomes a Sabre and is fat and out of shape to where he scores only 0 or 1 goal the rest of the season. Come on. Then he showed he can score again the following season.

Niedermyer scored half the goals here compared to his previous season. It was only 1 year later.

Hodson gets here and scores at a slower pace than he did in Vancoover and his plus minus took a nose dive

Moore was having the best year of his career then gets here and can't score.

You are making excuses for too many players. The problem is Ruff.
-Torres was out of shape when he came to Buffalo. He played awful and was eventually a healthy scratch - because he was awful. All you had to do was watch the games to see that.

-The Niedermayer argument is dreadful. The guy scored five goals not because of Lindy Ruff's system, but because he was old (and never was much of a scorer). Niedermayer isn't in the league anymore and it's not because Lindy Ruff coached the goals out of him. You realize that while playing under Ruff, Niedermayer scored the same amount of goals the year the Ducks won the cup, right? He's never been a goal scorer. His offensive numbers when he was with Buffalo were expected for a guy on the downside of his career - and those numbers were right in line with his previous four seasons' numbers.

-As I already said, Hodgson was brought in when he was in the middle of riding a cold streak entailing three points in 13 games. His overall production took a dip not because of Lindy Ruff but because for the first time in his career he was facing tougher checking assignments. He wasn't being sheltered playing behind Sedin and Kesler. He's a poor "example" especially considering his age and likely future contributions to the club.

-Dom Moore, as previously stated, was playing top-6 minutes in Toronto and played with a broken wrist in Buffalo. And again, look at his numbers after leaving Buffalo. Not spectacular. He, like Niedermayer, just isn't very good.

The only one you can make a case for is Torres, and even that's a faulty argument with no weight (except Torres').


Please, enlighten me, how does Lindy Ruff's alleged "system" coach the offense out of players? Explain that system to me. Because right now it seems like you're just trying to make Ruff the scapegoat for something that he actually isn't at fault (and I'm not a Ruff fan).

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