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Wherein we pin our salvation on someone besides Guerrero (wallpaper/avys - posts 1&2)

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Old
06-14-2012, 10:03 AM
  #901
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This is what makes McCoy valuable. When McCoy plays, it is not instead of someone else. It is because we need speed/defense/a day off. McCoy over Vizquel is not a bad trade off, but McCoy over Escobar/Johnson is.

McCoy can play good defense at three premium positions plus passable defense at 5 others (and can be emergency catcher). He can be a late inning speed pinch runner. He walks. He just sucks at contact and power (or else everyone would love him).

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06-14-2012, 10:10 AM
  #902
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I think its easy enough to understand why people can accept stats like WHIP, and OPS, and not one like WAR.

WHIP and OPS are both easily calculated, and more common. WAR tries to take an individual player's contribution and figure out how many wins he is responsible for (essentially), not very many people know how to calculate it, and the whole premise seems a little weird to me...baseball is a game of inches, and to measure how many wins a player contributes to his team seems a little off (as in hard to do). But what do I know, I'm no expert, I'm sure whoever made the statistic has great stats to back it up, considering some MLB teams use it.
Great post and really sums up my view on Sabremetrics and why I don't put much if any stock into it. Baseball is played by humans and the mental part of the game plays a huge part of it. Baseball is a game of inches. Baseball is a team game that is played by 9 guys on the field and each one plays a part in the other persons success.

So and example is say Butterfield moves Johnson more up the middle when Morrow is told to throw to the outside corner on a lefty batter. What happens if Morrow throws it inside now Johnson is further away from where he would normally be in the hole and that ball is now a basehit. How does that affect Johnson UZR?? Its not his fault he was moved over by his coach.

So my question why were Sabremetrics even created? Was it someone in baseball that asked to create these stats???

I go back again to the team game aspect of baseball and the other factors human element involved in all plays of the game.

Anyways like I said earlier its a debate that will never end and maybe I should just create my own Sabremetric stats to become more aware of them.

Mine will be WBTC = Wins by a third base coach.

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06-14-2012, 10:25 AM
  #903
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try arencebia at 1b
call up d'arnaud

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06-14-2012, 10:31 AM
  #904
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try arencebia at 1b
call up d'arnaud
your the guy who called into Jeff Blair?
Arencibia can't even hit that well. There would be more value to trade one of them to a team that needs a catcher, after getting good looks at D'arnaud. Move Mathis first and let him back up JPA, DHing when hes not catching.

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06-14-2012, 10:36 AM
  #905
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Originally Posted by Bjindaho View Post
This is what makes McCoy valuable. When McCoy plays, it is not instead of someone else. It is because we need speed/defense/a day off. McCoy over Vizquel is not a bad trade off, but McCoy over Escobar/Johnson is.

McCoy can play good defense at three premium positions plus passable defense at 5 others (and can be emergency catcher). He can be a late inning speed pinch runner. He walks. He just sucks at contact and power (or else everyone would love him).
You forgot that he can even pitch if need be.

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06-14-2012, 10:36 AM
  #906
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your the guy who called into Jeff Blair?
Arencibia can't even hit that well. There would be more value to trade one of them to a team that needs a catcher, after getting good looks at D'arnaud. Move Mathis first and let him back up JPA, DHing when hes not catching.
i wanna see what d'arnaud can do

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06-14-2012, 10:36 AM
  #907
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your the guy who called into Jeff Blair?
Arencibia can't even hit that well. There would be more value to trade one of them to a team that needs a catcher, after getting good looks at D'arnaud. Move Mathis first and let him back up JPA, DHing when hes not catching.
Not a terrible idea as long as Gomes is on the bench as an emergency catcher.

I think they have to explore trade options for either Mathis or JPA at the deadline.

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06-14-2012, 11:14 AM
  #908
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why do i get the impression AA is rushing his young players through the system, calling them up too soon, then seeing half of them getting injured ?

so you know we're going to see at some pt this season:

d'arnaud
hecheverria
gose
mcquire (after a few good starts in AA

quite possibly as injury replacements

kind of ironic our GM has the initials AA

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06-14-2012, 11:48 AM
  #909
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Great post and really sums up my view on Sabremetrics and why I don't put much if any stock into it. Baseball is played by humans and the mental part of the game plays a huge part of it. Baseball is a game of inches. Baseball is a team game that is played by 9 guys on the field and each one plays a part in the other persons success.

So and example is say Butterfield moves Johnson more up the middle when Morrow is told to throw to the outside corner on a lefty batter. What happens if Morrow throws it inside now Johnson is further away from where he would normally be in the hole and that ball is now a basehit. How does that affect Johnson UZR?? Its not his fault he was moved over by his coach.

So my question why were Sabremetrics even created? Was it someone in baseball that asked to create these stats???

I go back again to the team game aspect of baseball and the other factors human element involved in all plays of the game.

Anyways like I said earlier its a debate that will never end and maybe I should just create my own Sabremetric stats to become more aware of them.

Mine will be WBTC = Wins by a third base coach.
UZR is based on how far to your left/right you can range. It has nothing to do with where you were positioned.

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06-14-2012, 11:53 AM
  #910
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UZR is based on how far to your left/right you can range. It has nothing to do with where you were positioned.
How do you figure. Here is wiki take on it. Your telling me that moving a player over to the left or right won't impact UZR????? Hmmm again another example of a Sabremetric that is flawed as it does not take into account shifting done by managers or coaches and the spray charts by opposing batters.

Proponents of the statistic advise that defense is best judged over three-year spans, as a given year contains a relatively small sample and can result in large statistical swings.[2] Major League Baseball shortstop David Eckstein says "a lot of defense is putting yourself in the right position to make plays." Josh Stein, San Diego Padres director of baseball operations, said UZR "can be skewed if the player is not starting from the exact middle of [UZR's zone] chart."[1]

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06-14-2012, 12:16 PM
  #911
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Originally Posted by Chandrashekhar Limit View Post
Everytime I see Cain related news, I remember the Rios for Cain deal that almost went down.

What could have been.
It was suposedly Rios for Lincecum, who at that point hadn't broken through and wouldn't have been a "loss" to the major league team, but Sabean decided against it, nothing we could really do to make it happen besides tying him up and forcing his signature lol.

Still, I've always loved Cain and it sucks that we won't be able to sign him in the winter

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So and example is say Butterfield moves Johnson more up the middle when Morrow is told to throw to the outside corner on a lefty batter. What happens if Morrow throws it inside now Johnson is further away from where he would normally be in the hole and that ball is now a basehit. How does that affect Johnson UZR?? Its not his fault he was moved over by his coach.
You're a gong show...you're using a scenario that will never play out to support your point. Butter has no clue what pitch is coming from his pitcher, he just uses what a batter does against certain types of pitchers.

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06-14-2012, 12:17 PM
  #912
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Originally Posted by ryno23 View Post
How do you figure. Here is wiki take on it. Your telling me that moving a player over to the left or right won't impact UZR????? Hmmm again another example of a Sabremetric that is flawed as it does not take into account shifting done by managers or coaches and the spray charts by opposing batters.

Proponents of the statistic advise that defense is best judged over three-year spans, as a given year contains a relatively small sample and can result in large statistical swings.[2] Major League Baseball shortstop David Eckstein says "a lot of defense is putting yourself in the right position to make plays." Josh Stein, San Diego Padres director of baseball operations, said UZR "can be skewed if the player is not starting from the exact middle of [UZR's zone] chart."[1]
That might be their interpretation of UZR. It is supposed to be based on raw data based on a player's ability to get to balls 7, 10, and 14 feet away from them when they were still.

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06-14-2012, 12:26 PM
  #913
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The point a SABr fan will make is that if the Yankees didn't always rely on Jeter to get on for their boppers, he'd statistically have led them in RBIs at least once.

What most people who like "the traditional stats" miss is that a double is a valuable hit. With a runner on 2nd, it scores the runner almost every single time. OPS and SLG are ways to show power (and the ability to get on in the first place) in a way where guys still get credit for non-homer extra base hits. For example, if a guy hits 40 doubles and 20 home runs, that's 160 total bases. It isn't the same as 40 home runs (since that is 40 guaranteed runs), but the difference is offset by the fact that there are 20 extra hits there in general and runners on for other hitters.

The biggest problem with traditional views is that when you are down 8-0, how do you come back?

The old school approach is to swing for the fences every at bat and hope to hit 5-8 home runs (resulting in losses 99% of the time).

The intelligent approach is to aim for hits. Nothing kills a rally faster than a home run (because the pitcher can go back to the wind up and pretend nothing happened).
I think the intelligent and the old-school approach are one in the same. Cito Gaston's approach was to try to hit a homerun at every AB (or so it seemed). What I've been told by coaches and what I've learned by listening to broadcasts over the years is that rallies are started by getting on base (doesn't matter how you do it), and having the same plate approach no matter what the situation; that is, trying to get good wood on the ball, not swinging for the fences. I don't think that approach is new.


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The part people don't like with WAR are defensive and running values. Hitting stats can easily be compiled to give a quantitative value, but quantifying a Benji Molina's poor running is a lot harder. Another thing most fans don't like is that a lot of average fielders actually vary from below average to above (they miss that nagging injuries and a few extra errors could make a world of difference to the value someone brings in the field).

An example of why people don't like fielding WAR is Bautista. Jose is an average to above average outfielder, but doesn't get to use his primary asset (his arm), because teams know it is good and won't run on him. Because of that, his fielding stats only reflect what he does (there is nothing to show respect).
Here's the thing, how are these areas of the game weighted? For a position player, my opinion is that hitting > defence > baserunning in terms of importance. For some players, their hitting is far more important than their defence. I.e. in a so-called "low-priority" position like RF, defence is not as important as for a SS. Is the weighting for defence in the WAR statistic adjusted for RFers?

Additionally: does WAR take into account the mental aspect of the game? For example: Jose Molina was a terrible baserunner. His WAR contribution from baserunning will likely be atrocious; however, he is one of the smartest catchers in the game; that is, he knows how to call a game better than almost anyone. A rookie catcher would not be as experienced, and wouldn't call as good of a game. Is their a way to quantify this impact?

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06-14-2012, 12:40 PM
  #914
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Originally Posted by ryno23 View Post
How do you figure. Here is wiki take on it. Your telling me that moving a player over to the left or right won't impact UZR????? Hmmm again another example of a Sabremetric that is flawed as it does not take into account shifting done by managers or coaches and the spray charts by opposing batters.

Proponents of the statistic advise that defense is best judged over three-year spans, as a given year contains a relatively small sample and can result in large statistical swings.[2] Major League Baseball shortstop David Eckstein says "a lot of defense is putting yourself in the right position to make plays." Josh Stein, San Diego Padres director of baseball operations, said UZR "can be skewed if the player is not starting from the exact middle of [UZR's zone] chart."[1]
I give up. You continue to be more interested in beating up the Sabremetric strawman than having a real debate.

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06-14-2012, 12:56 PM
  #915
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Originally Posted by p.l.f. View Post
why do i get the impression AA is rushing his young players through the system, calling them up too soon, then seeing half of them getting injured ?

so you know we're going to see at some pt this season:

d'arnaud
hecheverria
gose
mcquire (after a few good starts in AA

quite possibly as injury replacements

kind of ironic our GM has the initials AA
How do you figure he's rushing them through? If that's the case guys like Sanchez and Nicolino are in Hi A, Nolin is in AA, etc.

And maybe the top 2 on your list come up if there are injuries. Numerous people would have to get hurt for Gose to come up. And McGuire isn't coming up this year unless he does a 180 in the 2nd half.

Obviously not counting sept call ups.

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06-14-2012, 01:26 PM
  #916
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I give up. You continue to be more interested in beating up the Sabremetric strawman than having a real debate.

So to me Sabremetrics are black and white stats drawn up by formulas created to make a certain outcome good or bad.

Maybe its just certain Sabremetrics stats that I take issue with such as

WAR - From wiki "There is no clearly established formula for WAR. Sites that provide the statistic, such as Baseball Prospectus, Fangraphs, and Baseball Reference, all calculate it differently; however, all of these sites calculate the value of WAR using these principles, and each site publicly acknowledges their methods for calculating their individual WAR values." - So how can you use a stat that is not even agreed on and is calculated differently.

EqA or TAv - have you seen how they calculate it really most baseball fans probably have a grade 12 math education and it would take a Math whiz to figure it out. Again trying to take out the mental part of this stat makes no sense cause a player hitting in Fenway vs Petco takes a total different approach to the plate and the pitchers also pitch different and also its not the same pitcher throwing the same pitches to each batter in each park.

VORP - you have to adjust the stat based on parks but again that takes out the mental aspect of each manager, pitcher or hitter has when playing in their home park or away park.

OPS is a stat that is pretty basic and easy to get and can be useful.

The rest of the stats just have too many holes or omit certain things like score of game, time of game is there people on base vs not and so many other non black and white factors that the game of baseball has to offer that is what makes baseball great the strategy of the game are not black and white and you can't take out the human element of the game.

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06-14-2012, 01:27 PM
  #917
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Originally Posted by p.l.f. View Post
why do i get the impression AA is rushing his young players through the system, calling them up too soon, then seeing half of them getting injured ?

so you know we're going to see at some pt this season:

d'arnaud
hecheverria
gose
mcquire (after a few good starts in AA

quite possibly as injury replacements

kind of ironic our GM has the initials AA
d'arnaud yes, we likely see at some point. But not because he's been rushed. Because he's ready for it.

Hechavarria I believe it's been said will stay in AAA unless there are long-term injuries in the middle infield that basically necessitates him being called up (it'd probably take at least 2 injuries among the group of Escobar, Johnson, Vizquel and McCoy to get to that point)

Ditto for Gose too. We'd likely see Thames back up, Francisco off the DL, and Snider & Sierra called up from the minors before they put Gose in. Unless he's absolutely raking at the time and they want to just give him a look.

McGuire might've made it if he weren't struggling the way he is. As it stands there seems to be more than enough arms on the depth chart ahead of him (Laffey, Cecil, Carreno, Beck, Crawford, Chavez, Coello) to fill bullpen and rotation spots before they have to turn to McGuire.

Also consider that Gose and Mcguire aren't on the 40-man roster. Room would have to be made to include them.

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06-14-2012, 01:33 PM
  #918
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d'arnaud yes, we likely see at some point. But not because he's been rushed. Because he's ready for it.

Hechavarria I believe it's been said will stay in AAA unless there are long-term injuries in the middle infield that basically necessitates him being called up (it'd probably take at least 2 injuries among the group of Escobar, Johnson, Vizquel and McCoy to get to that point)

Ditto for Gose too. We'd likely see Thames back up, Francisco off the DL, and Snider & Sierra called up from the minors before they put Gose in. Unless he's absolutely raking at the time and they want to just give him a look.

McGuire might've made it if he weren't struggling the way he is. As it stands there seems to be more than enough arms on the depth chart ahead of him (Laffey, Cecil, Carreno, Beck, Crawford, Chavez, Coello) to fill bullpen and rotation spots before they have to turn to McGuire.

Also consider that Gose and Mcguire aren't on the 40-man roster. Room would have to be made to include them.
I think with the season the way its going now maybe its time to move JPA and Escobar for a good package...maybe pull a classic Gillick Alomar deal.

I think D'Arnaud can come up and play and still have Mathis as insurance and Hech can do no worse at the plate than Escobar.

I wonder what team would need a SS and C that can trade an LF or 1B or good starting pitching.

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06-14-2012, 02:27 PM
  #919
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I think with the season the way its going now maybe its time to move JPA and Escobar for a good package...maybe pull a classic Gillick Alomar deal.

I think D'Arnaud can come up and play and still have Mathis as insurance and Hech can do no worse at the plate than Escobar.

I wonder what team would need a SS and C that can trade an LF or 1B or good starting pitching.
IMO those moves will be made in the off season. If he makes those kinds of trades now it's to a team in contention and I'm thinking youth and prospects would be coming back which could make some people crazy. They are two pretty good pieces but at this point we may be selling low on them which goes against AA's philosophy. Again unless something crazy presents itself I think we'll see most movement take place in the off season.

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06-14-2012, 03:04 PM
  #920
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It was suposedly Rios for Lincecum, who at that point hadn't broken through and wouldn't have been a "loss" to the major league team, but Sabean decided against it, nothing we could really do to make it happen besides tying him up and forcing his signature lol.

Still, I've always loved Cain and it sucks that we won't be able to sign him in the winter




You're a gong show...you're using a scenario that will never play out to support your point. Butter has no clue what pitch is coming from his pitcher, he just uses what a batter does against certain types of pitchers.
Well he signed for six years and the Jays will only sign players for five years or less.

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06-14-2012, 03:25 PM
  #921
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So to me Sabremetrics are black and white stats drawn up by formulas created to make a certain outcome good or bad.

Maybe its just certain Sabremetrics stats that I take issue with such as

WAR - From wiki "There is no clearly established formula for WAR. Sites that provide the statistic, such as Baseball Prospectus, Fangraphs, and Baseball Reference, all calculate it differently; however, all of these sites calculate the value of WAR using these principles, and each site publicly acknowledges their methods for calculating their individual WAR values." - So how can you use a stat that is not even agreed on and is calculated differently.

EqA or TAv - have you seen how they calculate it really most baseball fans probably have a grade 12 math education and it would take a Math whiz to figure it out. Again trying to take out the mental part of this stat makes no sense cause a player hitting in Fenway vs Petco takes a total different approach to the plate and the pitchers also pitch different and also its not the same pitcher throwing the same pitches to each batter in each park.

VORP - you have to adjust the stat based on parks but again that takes out the mental aspect of each manager, pitcher or hitter has when playing in their home park or away park.

OPS is a stat that is pretty basic and easy to get and can be useful.

The rest of the stats just have too many holes or omit certain things like score of game, time of game is there people on base vs not and so many other non black and white factors that the game of baseball has to offer that is what makes baseball great the strategy of the game are not black and white and you can't take out the human element of the game.
Personally, I'm not a fan of VORP or EqA. They only tell partial stories (and have the flaws you outlined). As a general rule, I used fWAR (because I peruse fangraphs). It is common for most fans to indicate if they are referencing a different WAR (like bWAR), but they are very simliar (the big difference is the weighting of D/baserunning).

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06-14-2012, 03:26 PM
  #922
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I think with the season the way its going now maybe its time to move JPA and Escobar for a good package...maybe pull a classic Gillick Alomar deal.

I think D'Arnaud can come up and play and still have Mathis as insurance and Hech can do no worse at the plate than Escobar.

I wonder what team would need a SS and C that can trade an LF or 1B or good starting pitching.
Nobody wants to hear it, but a Bautista trade would be the move to make.

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06-14-2012, 03:26 PM
  #923
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IMO those moves will be made in the off season. If he makes those kinds of trades now it's to a team in contention and I'm thinking youth and prospects would be coming back which could make some people crazy. They are two pretty good pieces but at this point we may be selling low on them which goes against AA's philosophy. Again unless something crazy presents itself I think we'll see most movement take place in the off season.
I don't think selling JPA right now is selling low. His upside is still there and many teams would view him as an upgrade and a good core piece moving forward. It just so happens D'Arnaud is probably better all round.

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06-14-2012, 03:38 PM
  #924
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It was suposedly Rios for Lincecum, who at that point hadn't broken through and wouldn't have been a "loss" to the major league team, but Sabean decided against it, nothing we could really do to make it happen besides tying him up and forcing his signature lol.
IIRC, Ricciardi game him the option of choosing Lincecum or Cain.

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06-14-2012, 03:52 PM
  #925
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IIRC, Ricciardi game him the option of choosing Lincecum or Cain.
And technically they chose neither, so it wasn't really close to happening But yeah, the rumours were he said either, they were going to do Lincecum, then they signed Rowand and the rest is history

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