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Old
06-02-2012, 07:22 PM
  #1
SenatorsLegionary
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Player Usage Charts

http://e9b8db0d-a-62cb3a1a-s-sites.g...attredirects=1

Saw this on the main board and thought it was a very interesting read. Really like the analysis of Spezza's playoff performance using the stats and also shows that Karlsson played against pretty high competition this year.

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06-02-2012, 07:27 PM
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Link's broken.

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06-02-2012, 07:38 PM
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Here's the 6th sens link:

http://www.the6thsens.com/2012-artic...ge-charts.html

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06-02-2012, 07:49 PM
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So... we only outshoot (or out-attempt-shoot) the opposition when Karlsson is on the ice?

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06-02-2012, 07:49 PM
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GAWDDDAMN, that is one sexy chart.

I love relevant stats. As Bill James said, the only stats worth anything have language. These stats have language in spades.

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06-02-2012, 08:05 PM
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So... who is the puck possession winger Spezza needs? Do we have a guy in the organization who can handle the minutes now? Stone, Noesen, Zibanejad? Or do we have to go outside?

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06-02-2012, 08:12 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mcnorth View Post
So... who is the puck possession winger Spezza needs? Do we have a guy in the organization who can handle the minutes now? Stone, Noesen, Zibanejad? Or do we have to go outside?
I think Zibanejad could eventually fit the bill. But PA Parenteau also comes to mind.

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06-02-2012, 08:27 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CanadianHockey View Post
So... we only outshoot (or out-attempt-shoot) the opposition when Karlsson is on the ice?
no, that distinction only belongs to Winchester, Konopka and Daugavins. Senators are pretty good at puck possession.

But yeah Karlsson is the heart of this team's possession skill. 12.68 corsi when on, 1.37 when off.

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06-02-2012, 08:49 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Immanuel View Post
no, that distinction only belongs to Winchester, Konopka and Daugavins. Senators are pretty good at puck possession.

But yeah Karlsson is the heart of this team's possession skill. 12.68 corsi when on, 1.37 when off.

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06-03-2012, 12:09 AM
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Originally Posted by Immanuel View Post
Thanks for checking out the site guys.

The guy who spearheaded this whole project is Rob Vollman. He just did a post the other day using this data to compare top-pairing d-men.



Kinda explodes this whole notion it's essential the Sens retain Kuba.

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06-03-2012, 12:32 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Immanuel View Post
no, that distinction only belongs to Winchester, Konopka and Daugavins. Senators are pretty good at puck possession.

But yeah Karlsson is the heart of this team's possession skill. 12.68 corsi when on, 1.37 when off.
Ok, I'm not really sure I understand the chart then. I'll admit I haven't looked too much into Corsi, care to elaborate what the circles are supposed to represent?

Because based on the explanation in the article, it seems to me that Karlsson pairings are the only ones that outshoot the opponent (blue circle) while a pairing that doesn't include Karlsson will generally get outshot (because every defenceman not named Karlsson has a white circle).

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06-03-2012, 12:36 AM
  #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CanadianHockey View Post
Ok, I'm not really sure I understand the chart then. I'll admit I haven't looked too much into Corsi, care to elaborate what the circles are supposed to represent?

Because based on the explanation in the article, it seems to me that Karlsson pairings are the only ones that outshoot the opponent (blue circle) while a pairing that doesn't include Karlsson will generally get outshot (because every defenceman not named Karlsson has a white circle).
So what you're saying is that our defense (minus Karlsson) really sucks. Fair.

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06-03-2012, 07:41 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CanadianHockey View Post
Ok, I'm not really sure I understand the chart then. I'll admit I haven't looked too much into Corsi, care to elaborate what the circles are supposed to represent?

Because based on the explanation in the article, it seems to me that Karlsson pairings are the only ones that outshoot the opponent (blue circle) while a pairing that doesn't include Karlsson will generally get outshot (because every defenceman not named Karlsson has a white circle).
Pretty much. It shows that the Kuba-Karlsson pairing pretty much saw every team's best players. Kuba a little more so, probably due to the fact that we didn't use Karlsson on the PK as much.

Also interesting to note: just how much we protected Carkner. The guy played, literally, against the weakest competition out of any Senator last year, including Filatov, Rundblad and DaCosta.

O'Brien having his minutes sheltered is something to note as well, it will be interesting to see how he responds next year to tougher competition and maybe more defensive zone starts.

ALSO: Maclean played Gilroy (in his short time here) against tougher competition than he did Phillips, Cowen, Lee or Carkner. That's a stat that might give some insight as to whether we re-sign him.

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06-03-2012, 09:17 AM
  #14
mcnorth
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I was impressed how well Rundblad fared on this. Sheltered, but he created offense and was fine defensively on the chart. Just from watching I would have thought he struggled a bit more on D.

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06-03-2012, 10:57 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CanadianHockey View Post
Ok, I'm not really sure I understand the chart then. I'll admit I haven't looked too much into Corsi, care to elaborate what the circles are supposed to represent?

Because based on the explanation in the article, it seems to me that Karlsson pairings are the only ones that outshoot the opponent (blue circle) while a pairing that doesn't include Karlsson will generally get outshot (because every defenceman not named Karlsson has a white circle).
The circles represent CorsiRel, not "raw" corsi. CorsiRel is (corsi on - corsi off) which is corsi relative to the rest of the team's corsi rating.

Karlsson is the only one with a blue circle because he's so far above average and plays so much that everyone else gets a minus. In raw corsi the rest of the team is actually decent, just bad in relation to Karlsson.

Quote:
Originally Posted by mcnorth View Post
I was impressed how well Rundblad fared on this. Sheltered, but he created offense and was fine defensively on the chart. Just from watching I would have thought he struggled a bit more on D.
Yeah I think Rundblad will be one of those Malkin/Sedin type players where they need to be sheltered to be effective.


Last edited by Pietraneglo222: 06-03-2012 at 11:03 AM.
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06-03-2012, 02:02 PM
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Turris really stands out to me on the chart. High Cosrsi QOC, good Rel Corsi, and his off zone starts % was below the teams average.

Zibanajad also surprised with a very his QOC for a rookie, and again below the teams average for offensive zone starts. I think as he grows more comfortable at the NHL level, his corsi will come up (one of the few sens with a raw corsi in the negative makes his rel corsi look even worse).

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06-03-2012, 03:28 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Immanuel View Post
The circles represent CorsiRel, not "raw" corsi. CorsiRel is (corsi on - corsi off) which is corsi relative to the rest of the team's corsi rating.

Karlsson is the only one with a blue circle because he's so far above average and plays so much that everyone else gets a minus. In raw corsi the rest of the team is actually decent, just bad in relation to Karlsson.



Yeah I think Rundblad will be one of those Malkin/Sedin type players where they need to be sheltered to be effective.
If you could pair him with a serious shutdown guy ala Regehr or the like, he could really be a nice piece.

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06-03-2012, 03:37 PM
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Originally Posted by mcnorth View Post
If you could pair him with a serious shutdown guy ala Regehr or the like, he could really be a nice piece.
Alternatively, you use him like a Corvo. Give him a ton of PP time, not much ES time, and play him as often as possible in offensive zone faceoffs against depth players.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Immanuel View Post
The circles represent CorsiRel, not "raw" corsi. CorsiRel is (corsi on - corsi off) which is corsi relative to the rest of the team's corsi rating.

Karlsson is the only one with a blue circle because he's so far above average and plays so much that everyone else gets a minus. In raw corsi the rest of the team is actually decent, just bad in relation to Karlsson.
Thanks!

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Old
06-10-2012, 08:18 PM
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-More proof that Condra is the most underrated player on the team

-One thing that worries me is Cowen's low QoC. I know he's only a rookie, but with Phillips and Gonchar getting older, he'll probably be relied on more next year, and those are the kinds of guys who go through "sophomore slumps"


Last edited by brochenski: 06-10-2012 at 08:22 PM. Reason: One last thing
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06-10-2012, 08:27 PM
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More proof that Condra is the most underrated player on the team
Eh, I don't know.

I'm not saying Condra is a bad player, I like his game (stone hands notwithstanding). But if you ask me, if you're going to use this chart to analyze who is the most underrated guy (based on the stats they're measuring), I'd give it to Turris. Condra looks good too.

I think it also shows how much Zibanejad struggled to find his game during his 9-game stint. Shows just how tough it is for 18 year old rookies to really play and have an impact in the NHL.

It also paints Brian Lee in a fairly bad light... didn't really face a high level of competition compared to other Sens defenceman (outside of Carkner, obviously, who was team-worst in that regard), but still managed to show very little for his sheltered time on the ice. Don't miss the guy at all.

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06-10-2012, 09:20 PM
  #21
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These charts are stupid. Just my opinion.

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06-10-2012, 09:38 PM
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I've been looking more closely at the player usage charts in terms of comparisons between the Sens and other teams around the league and I have a few observations.

Observation One:

The Senators have a very tight grouping of compared to teams around the league in terms of line matching (spread in terms of Quality of Competition) AND offensive/defensive usage (spread in terms of Zone starts). {This of course, excluding the obvious examples that mostly weren't even with the team anymore by the end of the season - Da Costa, Filatov, Rundblad and surprisingly Carkner}

Of course, you can see the trends, 9MM had the most offensive zone starts on the team, Kuba and Karlsson saw the toughest matchups, Winchester was our defensive faceoff specialist, but compared to the rest of the league, MacLean was pretty much rolling his lines no matter the situation in terms of opponent or faceoff position. {This is especially the case when you look at the quality of competition numbers. Just about the entire team is between 0.5 and -0.5, while most teams have a range from 1.5 to -1.5}

Make whatever you will of that, maybe Paul doesn't do enough linematching, maybe we don't really have anyone capable of fulfilling that shutdown capacity, or maybe everyone on the team is capable enough to play against any line, so no one needs to be sheltered, leaving 'stache the flexibility to play whomever whenever they are needed at any specific situation on the ice.

Observation Two:

We have exactly one defenseman with <50% Offensive Zone Starts. That being Chris Phillips and he is barely under 50%. The only way that makes sense is that apparently we as a team have way more offensive zone faceoffs than defensive zone faceoffs. Apparently we were very good at getting out of our own zone (either that or everytime we got stuck in our own zone, we got scored on so the faceoff went to center ice, instead of being able to force a defensive zone faceoff).

This might also be a good argument for those downplaying Karlsson's Norris credentials because of his high zone starts number compared to the other Norris hopefuls. His zone starts are inflated by the team's high zone start numbers.

Observation Three:

I have no idea why the Senators have a distribution that is backwards compared any heavy line-matching team. One only has to look at the St. Louis Blue for example to see a distribution that goes from top left to bottom right. Some players are the shutdown guys that play against the opponent's top players in the defensive zone while others are "sheltered" players that play against the opponent's worse players in the offensive zone. That distribution makes sense.

What doesn't make sense is the Sens' distribution from the bottom left to top right. Apparently the Sens play against the opponent's top players in the offensive zone, while they play against the opponent's worse players in the defensive zone.

The only way I can explain it is this way:

When our bottom six players are playing against the opponent's bottom six players, they dominate and end up getting a faceoff in the offensive zone. Thus, when the top players are rested and ready for another shift they end up having to take a faceoff in their defensive zone. We then play our top players against those top players. Our top players aren't quite as capable at dominating the opponent's top guys as our bottom six guys, so when a faceoff happens and our depth guys are back out for the faceoff against the other's team's depth guys, they aren't in the offensive zone quite as much.

Does that make sense at all? Maybe I'm missing something.

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06-10-2012, 10:02 PM
  #23
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I was impressed how well Rundblad fared on this. Sheltered, but he created offense and was fine defensively on the chart. Just from watching I would have thought he struggled a bit more on D.
Remember that long stretch pass from behind our goal line straight up the middle on Greening's stick for a break away goal against the Leafs. Yeah that kid has skill and as much as I know we needed a 2nd line C and Turris has been good for us, I still miss the chance of seeing him develop.

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06-10-2012, 10:20 PM
  #24
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Observation Three:

I have no idea why the Senators have a distribution that is backwards compared any heavy line-matching team. One only has to look at the St. Louis Blue for example to see a distribution that goes from top left to bottom right. Some players are the shutdown guys that play against the opponent's top players in the defensive zone while others are "sheltered" players that play against the opponent's worse players in the offensive zone. That distribution makes sense.

What doesn't make sense is the Sens' distribution from the bottom left to top right. Apparently the Sens play against the opponent's top players in the offensive zone, while they play against the opponent's worse players in the defensive zone.

The only way I can explain it is this way:

When our bottom six players are playing against the opponent's bottom six players, they dominate and end up getting a faceoff in the offensive zone. Thus, when the top players are rested and ready for another shift they end up having to take a faceoff in their defensive zone. We then play our top players against those top players. Our top players aren't quite as capable at dominating the opponent's top guys as our bottom six guys, so when a faceoff happens and our depth guys are back out for the faceoff against the other's team's depth guys, they aren't in the offensive zone quite as much.

Does that make sense at all? Maybe I'm missing something.
According to behind the net's numbers, Condra, Smith, Turris, and Winchester are the only players who are more likely to finish a shift in the offensive zone than they were to start the shift in the offensive zone. None of them are more than 1-2% more likely to have an offensive finish than an offensive start. So I'm not sure your theory makes sense - (correct me if I'm wrong but) you'd expect to see a lot of our bottom-6ers have higher offensive zone finishes than starts.

Edit - The only thing I can think of is that they maybe counted icing plays to be 'defensive zone finishes' and that we forced a ton of icings, Meaning whoever was coming off got a 'defensive zone finish' while whoever went to take the faceoff in the offensive zone got an 'offensive zone start'.


Last edited by CanadianHockey: 06-10-2012 at 10:25 PM.
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06-11-2012, 06:51 PM
  #25
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AndrePetersson View Post
Observation Two:

We have exactly one defenseman with <50% Offensive Zone Starts. That being Chris Phillips and he is barely under 50%. The only way that makes sense is that apparently we as a team have way more offensive zone faceoffs than defensive zone faceoffs. Apparently we were very good at getting out of our own zone (either that or everytime we got stuck in our own zone, we got scored on so the faceoff went to center ice, instead of being able to force a defensive zone faceoff).

This might also be a good argument for those downplaying Karlsson's Norris credentials because of his high zone starts number compared to the other Norris hopefuls. His zone starts are inflated by the team's high zone start numbers.
As a team Ottawa starts 54.7% of the time in the Offensive zone. While it does soften the argument, Karlsson is still 2.4% above the team average, where as a guy like Weber is starting 44.6% in the OZ, but his team averages 46.0%, so 1.4 below the average. Much the same with Chara who is at 48.1% on a team that averages 51.4.

On a side note, yeah team, 54.7% is very high.

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