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Luongo Trade Value

View Poll Results: What is Luongo's Value?
High Value (e.g., Schenn & Kadri / etc.) 57 13.87%
Moderate Value (e.g., Franson & MacArthur / etc.) 211 51.34%
Low Value (e.g., Franson / 2nd rounder / etc.) 99 24.09%
Negative Value (e.g., Komisarek / etc.) 30 7.30%
Highly Negative Value (e.g., Komisarek & Lombardi) 14 3.41%
Voters: 411. You may not vote on this poll

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Old
06-21-2012, 09:25 AM
  #826
satyr9
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To me Komisarek is a must going the other way to create value for the trade. The last 4 years are just retirement money at 7 million and Komi is due 7 million, so the 'nucks move silly money into a guy they would probably play the next 2 years. That leaves a 33 year-old on a 6/40 deal, although with its cap hit lowered. IMO that's fairly close to his FA value if he were on the open market. With a lack of suitors I think it'd be less, but not as much less as I was inclined to think at the end of the season.

IMO, some combo of Ashton/Frattin, Holzer/Blacker, a 2nd/3rd pick, and they're welcome to as many of the Connolly, Lombardi, MacArthur, Armstrong guys as they want (wouldn't expect that though), but the value is the young winger, the right-handed d-man to take over for Komi if he fails, and a decent, but not 1st rounder pick.

I'm sure they'd rather have Franson than Holzer/Blacker and probably start out asking for Kadri/Colborne instead of Ashton/Frattin and maybe that's where it ends up, but even with Komi for some ballast, the combo of the marketplace and Luongo's deal just doesn't make it a deal that should include the Schenn, Kadri, Gardiner, even Colborne types (although the last one isn't off the table and I might actually prefer moving him over Frattin, can't decide).

My prediction:
Komisarek
Frattin
Blacker
2013 2nd
2013 5th


Last edited by satyr9: 06-21-2012 at 09:37 AM.
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Old
06-21-2012, 09:31 AM
  #827
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Quote:
Originally Posted by xyzz View Post
From our friend incarcerated bob:

**BREAKING NHL NEWS**Source: Leafs & Canucks are this close 2completing deal (Med Reports Left)that would send Luongo to Leafs 98% Done WOW!



Interesting to see what happens =)

I hope we get him. Instant playoffs.
Still waiting for Jeff Carter's med reports to be approved, what's taking so long?

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06-21-2012, 12:37 PM
  #828
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Dreger is reaching Eklund status for me and many other people.
Now that is just plain mean.

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06-22-2012, 07:40 AM
  #829
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Burke's comments, taken by many as his real and true feelings . . . is all part of the negotiation process. This is how negotiations take place, when you have a team (Vancouver) that needs to realise their options for dealing Luongo are limited (Toronto) and they need to drastically reduce their asking price.

So Burke will insist he is willing to start with two young goalies again (no one could be THAT stupid, could they?), and Vancouver will inevitably have to blink first, before they are reduced to being fully stuck with Luongo, and then having to deal with a vicious goalie controversy to start their season with. They will at that point have to sit their very expensive starting goalie of the past and lose massive value by doing so, spitting in the face of all fans; or, they will have to sit Schneider, and risk pissing him off, while pissing off most fans; or, the third option - tandem, which sort of does both, plus adds more drama and controversy to the entire situation.

Vancouver management will not want to let it get to that point, I don't see it. They will blink first, and Burke, he will get his goalie at a very, VERY good price.

I see Komisarek and a 2nd.

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Old
06-23-2012, 12:05 AM
  #830
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Strange how people keep thinking Mike "Press Box" Komisarek has any value whatsoever. If a trade happens between the leafs and vancouver, they will definitely want a player that's worth more, and paid less. Komi has ZERO trade value these days. He's being outperformed by a rookie for god's sake.

If it's a d-man they want, I mean, hell, they can go ahead and take Komi if they want, but they don't want him.

NHL-ready D-men that are attainable for them are JML, Franson, and Gunnar.
They can have their pick with just about any Marlie they want. Would Kadri be part of that package? Possibly.
They'd take a pick as well. No higher than a 2nd, no later than a 4th.

For Lu, you're looking at D, prospect, and a decent pick.

He may want out of Vancouver, but we wouldn't get him for scraps. He's still a top 10 goaltender in this league, and those are hard to come by.

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06-23-2012, 09:13 AM
  #831
satyr9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Beaninfritz View Post
Strange how people keep thinking Mike "Press Box" Komisarek has any value whatsoever. If a trade happens between the leafs and vancouver, they will definitely want a player that's worth more, and paid less. Komi has ZERO trade value these days. He's being outperformed by a rookie for god's sake.

If it's a d-man they want, I mean, hell, they can go ahead and take Komi if they want, but they don't want him.

NHL-ready D-men that are attainable for them are JML, Franson, and Gunnar.
They can have their pick with just about any Marlie they want. Would Kadri be part of that package? Possibly.
They'd take a pick as well. No higher than a 2nd, no later than a 4th.

For Lu, you're looking at D, prospect, and a decent pick.

He may want out of Vancouver, but we wouldn't get him for scraps. He's still a top 10 goaltender in this league, and those are hard to come by.
Komi's negative value is absolutely the reason why he's often included. It's a cost offset for the insanely overpaid burden of the 43 million remaining on Luongo's deal. I haven't seen anyone putting Komi in as if he's worth something, he's ballast for the trade, that's it.

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Old
06-23-2012, 09:34 AM
  #832
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Komisarek would actually be a good fit in Vancouver. As would Connolly, Lombardi or Armstrong. (seriously)

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Old
06-23-2012, 09:50 AM
  #833
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Anyone know why there is a standoff right now?

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Old
06-23-2012, 10:13 AM
  #834
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I like Luongo and frankly feel that this one move alone would vault the Leafs into a certain playoff position. Having said that... I would offer Vancouver a 7th round pick in 2022 (the year that Bobby Lu's deal runs out) and the playing rights to Tie Domi (currently 42 years of age... or the same age that Bobby Lu will be at the end of his contract). That's the best deal that they're going to get IMHO.

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06-23-2012, 10:16 AM
  #835
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I'm positive Gillis wanted the 5th (and Reilly) for Loungo.

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06-23-2012, 10:23 AM
  #836
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This talk of Florida is such B.S. They will never take on that contract when they're nearly bankrupt and have the world's best goalie prospect ready to play.

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06-23-2012, 10:36 AM
  #837
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Originally Posted by RogerRoeper View Post
This talk of Florida is such B.S. They will never take on that contract when they're nearly bankrupt and have the world's best goalie prospect ready to play.
Agreed. Panthers are not going to get him, with Theodore too. No way CBJ takes him with Sergei and Dansk now. Lightning bowed out with the acquisition of Lindback as well as unwilling to take Luongo's contract. Who else now? Vancouver I am sorry but they need to rid themselves of Luongo or Schnieder. Schnieder will command up to 3-4 mil I think, and with Lu's contract that is around 8-9 mil. This is atrocious for a goalie tandem. They are going to trade Lu as Cory is their future. Their only outlet is the Hawks or the Leafs.

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06-23-2012, 11:01 AM
  #838
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I hope we don't start next season with Reimer

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06-23-2012, 11:11 AM
  #839
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Originally Posted by wreckingcru View Post
Agreed. Panthers are not going to get him, with Theodore too. No way CBJ takes him with Sergei and Dansk now. Lightning bowed out with the acquisition of Lindback as well as unwilling to take Luongo's contract. Who else now? Vancouver I am sorry but they need to rid themselves of Luongo or Schnieder. Schnieder will command up to 3-4 mil I think, and with Lu's contract that is around 8-9 mil. This is atrocious for a goalie tandem. They are going to trade Lu as Cory is their future. Their only outlet is the Hawks or the Leafs.
in general i don't see many teams in the US taking him 'cause many are on shaky grounds financially

also, every year that passes his value goes down dramatically due to his best years being at the front end

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06-23-2012, 11:17 AM
  #840
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Franson
Armstrong/Komisarek
Colborne (?) -- I'm really high on Colborne and don't want to see him go. But we desperately need someone like Lu.

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Old
06-23-2012, 11:35 AM
  #841
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Originally Posted by wreckingcru View Post
Anyone know why there is a standoff right now?
The belief is that Gillis wants a hockey deal, that is, he wants a team to give them a return solely based on Luongo's value as a hockey player.

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Old
06-23-2012, 11:54 AM
  #842
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Originally Posted by yoss View Post
Exactly, which why is i am kind of surprised at how little value some Leafs fans seem to put on Lou. I would even venture to say that barring any other significant moves, they will likely miss the playoffs again without him. Just my opinion, but who knows.
Value has different facets.

Lu may be the only elite, albeit declining, goaltender out there, but there aren't very many teams seeking goaltenders that can take on that contract. Chicago and Vancouver aren't trading with eachother, cash-strapped Florida (their main beat writer said talks haven't even happened) isn't going to move valuable assets for a 10 year contract that pays $7m for a 33 year old over the next 6 years. Ditto for the Bluejackets. Especially when they have the best goaltending prospect in the world. Toronto makes sense, but that contract will hamper us in 3-4 years when Lu is in the twilight of his career. That depreciates his value now, as well as later, as he'll prevent any team from upgrading in other areas due to his cap hit.

Realize this, Vancouver is the only team that stands to lose in this situation. Should the Leafs make a contract offer of $4.5m on Cory Schneider, for example, the compensation is a first and third. He's a young goaltender with great upside. He'll be around for a long time, making a 5-6 year contract worth it. Luongo, by comparison, will not be worth it in the long-run, so it makes little sense to offer anything more than the equivalent of a first and third. In fact, it makes little sense to offer even that. Should Vancouver match, which is plausible, they would be dedicating massive amounts of cap space (~$10m) to goaltending. That's twice as much as they should be, and prevents them from upgrading in other areas.

Vancouver's best bet is to move Schneider for a good return that is roughly in the same ballpark as a first and third (Schenn) or move Lu as a salary dump. Otherwise, the Leafs are best going forward with Reimer and either Scrivens or one of the other cheap alternatives out there. The Leafs were in the playoff race for most of the year last season, and having Reimer out of his sophomore slump should bring him back to what he's been capable of.

If the Canucks care more about massive returns than asset-management, that's their prerogative.

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06-23-2012, 01:20 PM
  #843
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Quote:
Originally Posted by satyr9 View Post
Komi's negative value is absolutely the reason why he's often included. It's a cost offset for the insanely overpaid burden of the 43 million remaining on Luongo's deal. I haven't seen anyone putting Komi in as if he's worth something, he's ballast for the trade, that's it.
Why do people keep talking like Luongo's contract is such an albatross? It isn't! "insanely overpaid burden"? Are you drunk or something? Given who he is, and his career stats, paying him $6.7 mil/season for the next 6 seasons is nothing to the leafs. His cap hit is $5.3, but he's getting $6.7 for the next 5 years, then it drops sharply to $3.5, etc. As far as his cap-hit being a problem, what if the salary cap goes up by $5 million by the time he retires? It's not outrageous to think that, in fact, it's quite the conservative estimate.

When it comes to paying salaries, the leafs could afford to front load a dozen contracts, to the tune of 9 million per season, and STILL be one of the most profitable teams in the league. It's a moot point. Don't give me this crap that "Oh! He's going to bankrupt us!", he's not. We've spent some pretty big money on far worse players. Like that... ummmm.. Jeff Finger guy? Making $4 mil to play in the Marlies?

If age is a concern? How old was Thomas when he won a cup? How old was Belfour when he had one of his best seasons (hint: it was with the leafs)? How old was Roloson during Edmonton's and Tampa's playoff runs? Luongo's managed to remain free of serious injury throughout his career. People say he'll decline, and yes, he probably will. But how much? He's not going to be playing like a geriatric when he's 35. His contract pays him well up to 40, and probably for a good reason IMO.

If we're going with Carlyle's D first mentality, Luongo is the perfect fit for it. We KNOW he'll stop the shots. Which is what we desperately need. Since in the past, we haven't known if our goalie would stop the shots.

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06-23-2012, 02:55 PM
  #844
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Originally Posted by rojac View Post
The belief is that Gillis wants a hockey deal, that is, he wants a team to give them a return solely based on Luongo's value as a hockey player.
If that is true, which I agree that it likely is, then Gillis is ignoring the basic economics of a cap-based system. Nevermind the real-world realities of what millions of dollars in a recession actually means.

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06-23-2012, 02:59 PM
  #845
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don't know what you guys are smoking. A top goaltender for Mac & Franson? A blue-chip prospect or a very good young player AT LEAST have to be going the other way.

Think about parting with at least a Kadri / Schenn / Gardiner at worst and maybe even Gunnarsson.

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06-23-2012, 03:05 PM
  #846
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wreckingcru View Post
Anyone know why there is a standoff right now?
Gillis clearly is asking for more than Burke is willing to pay. In this interview:

http://video.mapleleafs.nhl.com/vide...182743&lang=en

Burke says he is not happy with the asking price for goalies. He wont overpay to upgrade at that position.

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06-23-2012, 03:07 PM
  #847
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Beaninfritz View Post
Why do people keep talking like Luongo's contract is such an albatross? It isn't! "insanely overpaid burden"? Are you drunk or something? Given who he is, and his career stats, paying him $6.7 mil/season for the next 6 seasons is nothing to the leafs. His cap hit is $5.3, but he's getting $6.7 for the next 5 years, then it drops sharply to $3.5, etc. As far as his cap-hit being a problem, what if the salary cap goes up by $5 million by the time he retires? It's not outrageous to think that, in fact, it's quite the conservative estimate.

When it comes to paying salaries, the leafs could afford to front load a dozen contracts, to the tune of 9 million per season, and STILL be one of the most profitable teams in the league. It's a moot point. Don't give me this crap that "Oh! He's going to bankrupt us!", he's not. We've spent some pretty big money on far worse players. Like that... ummmm.. Jeff Finger guy? Making $4 mil to play in the Marlies?

If age is a concern? How old was Thomas when he won a cup? How old was Belfour when he had one of his best seasons (hint: it was with the leafs)? How old was Roloson during Edmonton's and Tampa's playoff runs? Luongo's managed to remain free of serious injury throughout his career. People say he'll decline, and yes, he probably will. But how much? He's not going to be playing like a geriatric when he's 35. His contract pays him well up to 40, and probably for a good reason IMO.

If we're going with Carlyle's D first mentality, Luongo is the perfect fit for it. We KNOW he'll stop the shots. Which is what we desperately need. Since in the past, we haven't known if our goalie would stop the shots.
Leafs can afford Luongo, but Burke's leverage is that the leafs are probably the only team that can absorb the contract and need a goalie.

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06-23-2012, 03:08 PM
  #848
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Originally Posted by mig174 View Post
don't know what you guys are smoking. A top goaltender for Mac & Franson? A blue-chip prospect or a very good young player AT LEAST have to be going the other way.

Think about parting with at least a Kadri / Schenn / Gardiner at worst and maybe even Gunnarsson.
He is a top goaltender, but he:
-is 33yo
-is signed to a big $$ ten year contract
-has an NMC
-wants out
-prevents you from signing shneider
-doesnt have any other suitors other than us and florida (of which florida wants a soft deal)

Thats the only reason why we are interested, because we can get him for cheap. Mike Gillis may want to play hardball, but lets face it, burke is in control of the situation.

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06-23-2012, 03:08 PM
  #849
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mig174 View Post
don't know what you guys are smoking. A top goaltender for Mac & Franson? A blue-chip prospect or a very good young player AT LEAST have to be going the other way.

Think about parting with at least a Kadri / Schenn / Gardiner at worst and maybe even Gunnarsson.
What are you smoking?

There is a reason the leafs are the only team bidding on Luongo. His contract and age gives him negative value.

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06-24-2012, 11:26 AM
  #850
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Burke was quoted yesterday..

Quote:
Burke maintains he's willing to move forward with a goaltending tandem of James Reimer and Ben Scrivens, although it's known the team has had discussions with Vancouver about Roberto Luongo. However, that's another situation where the asking price has simply been too high for Burke to stomach.

"Rather than strip the organization to fill one positional need, we'll go with what we have," he said.

http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=399090
So those expecting a soft deal for Lou, are likely going to disappointed.

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