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06-12-2012, 10:51 AM
  #376
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Originally Posted by sonsofcain View Post
I just can't wait to see how hilarious the Capitals' offense is without him.

I also still don't understand why people don't see the difference between 21 goals scored by Semin and 21 goals scored by Brouwer/Knuble. Semin creates most of his goals himself. Players like Brouwer score half of their goals because of players like Semin. NBTW keeps pretending you can put three Brouwers on a line and get 60+ goals out of that line, and it's just not true.
What's the difference between 21 goals scored by Semin and 21 goals scored by Hudler? Or Whitney? Jokinen?

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06-12-2012, 10:53 AM
  #377
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What's the difference between 21 goals scored by Semin and 21 goals scored by Hudler? Or Whitney? Jokinen?
I'll answer my own question.

The difference is around $2M.

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06-12-2012, 10:56 AM
  #378
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Originally Posted by NobodyBeatsTheWiz View Post
What's the difference between 21 goals scored by Semin and 21 goals scored by Hudler? Or Whitney? Jokinen?
Or Chimera? Or Kyle Brodziak?


AmIDoinItRight?

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06-12-2012, 10:56 AM
  #379
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It's not always just hits logged, its dangerous hits taken. That one Rags game, maybe game 4, he took 3 or 4 really hard hits in a row, maybe in one shift. I think all Caps fans were cringing during that stretch. For some reason, the Rags then left him alone.

It's obvious to me that teams can do this repeatedly to him if they want to. He makes almost no attempt to brace himself for hits. That is not a player you can build your defense around. If you do, expect injuries or turnovers and playoff loses. It's too easy to game plan against us. Pitt he got targeted and injured and was playing with one arm if that. Montreal, they bum rushed him into a few huge goals that cost us - big.

This may have been his best playoffs, but with no offensive game, he is far overpaid.

A teams highest paid D man has to do better.
on one hand you are saying green can't take a hit. in the next sentance you are saying his problem is that he gets hit more than anyone else and harder.

logically, the same player can't be both of those. either he gets hit too hard too often or he cant take a hit. which label would you like to attach to green?

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06-12-2012, 10:58 AM
  #380
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Originally Posted by NobodyBeatsTheWiz View Post
What's the difference between 21 goals scored by Semin and 21 goals scored by Hudler? Or Whitney? Jokinen?
Well, I didn't mean to imply he would score 21 goals again. People have said it already: That's his floor. He may not score 40 again, but he's at least as likely not to score 21 again either (I know, that was last year). Get Ribeiro from Dallas and put them together, and see what happens. They don't need to replace 21G/54P if he walks; they need to replace around 30G/70P. He and Ovechkin put up horrible totals this year and the team's offense was terrible. You don't re-sign Semin expecting 21 goals, but 30, just like you don't keep Ovechkin and his contract on the roster if you're expecting him to keep scoring 65 points. If they think Semin is a 21-goal scorer from now on, I can certainly see why they'll let him walk.

I've said that I'm alright with him leaving at this point though. It's more that I don't trust McPhee to properly replace him than anything.

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06-12-2012, 11:00 AM
  #381
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I'm sold! Extend him for 5 years $35 mil!
the point as i see is that replacing semin is a lot more than replacing the 21 goals from this past season. he's a top 20 goal scorer who had a bad season rather than a middle of the lineup plugger with some hands like troy brouwer.

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06-12-2012, 11:01 AM
  #382
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CLEARLY he means can't take a hit without getting hurt.

Green continues to put himself in bad positions, although against the Rags, I thought he was as good as he has ever been in protecting himself (not saying a lot for a guy who constantly puts himself in harms way). Not saying there weren't some I was cringing at, but he seemed more aware.

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06-12-2012, 11:02 AM
  #383
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on one hand you are saying green can't take a hit. in the next sentance you are saying his problem is that he gets hit more than anyone else and harder.

logically, the same player can't be both of those. either he gets hit too hard too often or he cant take a hit. which label would you like to attach to green?
Logically, how in the world are those mutually exclusive? He gets hard, often, and has shown to break down when on the receiving end of those hits.

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06-12-2012, 11:06 AM
  #384
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Originally Posted by sonsofcain View Post
Well, I didn't mean to imply he would score 21 goals again. People have said it already: That's his floor. He may not score 40 again, but he's at least as likely not to score 21 again either (I know, that was last year). Get Ribeiro from Dallas and put them together, and see what happens. They don't need to replace 21G/54P if he walks; they need to replace around 30G/70P. He and Ovechkin put up horrible totals this year and the team's offense was terrible. You don't re-sign Semin expecting 21 goals, but 30, just like you don't keep Ovechkin and his contract on the roster if you're expecting him to keep scoring 65 points. If they think Semin is a 21-goal scorer from now on, I can certainly see why they'll let him walk.

I've said that I'm alright with him leaving at this point though. It's more that I don't trust McPhee to properly replace him than anything.
I'm pretty sure Semin is on the decline. You never see 28 year old forwards succeed anymore.

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06-12-2012, 11:06 AM
  #385
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the point as i see is that replacing semin is a lot more than replacing the 21 goals from this past season. he's a top 20 goal scorer who had a bad season rather than a middle of the lineup plugger with some hands like troy brouwer.
For my $7 mil, I'd prefer a player who makes those around him better, along with a respectable lockerroom presence. Semin may very well go to an ideal situation like Detroit and have a fantastic year points-wise (as I predicted long ago), but assuming McPhee does his job and fills that hole in the top-6, the Caps will likely be better off for it in the long run.

And Semin's had two bad seasons in a row now, so this is no knee jerk reaction by fans or Cap's management.

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06-12-2012, 11:07 AM
  #386
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Yeah, I'm really warming to the idea of Ribeiro, not that I didn't like him before - and if the price is futures of that caliber, we'd be stupid not to pull the trigger.


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06-12-2012, 11:08 AM
  #387
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Originally Posted by sonsofcain View Post
Well, I didn't mean to imply he would score 21 goals again. People have said it already: That's his floor. He may not score 40 again, but he's at least as likely not to score 21 again either (I know, that was last year). Get Ribeiro from Dallas and put them together, and see what happens. They don't need to replace 21G/54P if he walks; they need to replace around 30G/70P. He and Ovechkin put up horrible totals this year and the team's offense was terrible. You don't re-sign Semin expecting 21 goals, but 30, just like you don't keep Ovechkin and his contract on the roster if you're expecting him to keep scoring 65 points. If they think Semin is a 21-goal scorer from now on, I can certainly see why they'll let him walk.

I've said that I'm alright with him leaving at this point though. It's more that I don't trust McPhee to properly replace him than anything.
And we thought Semin's floor was 28 goals before last year, right? I'd much rather spread the Semin money out over a couple upgrades than bring him back and hope he learns consistency in year 8 of his NHL career.

I'm down with getting Ribeiro, but if you bring back Semin at the $6M he'll demand, that's likely the only forward upgrade you'll get. The forward group probably looks something like:

Ovechkin-Backstrom-Johansson
Semin-Ribeiro-Brouwer
Chimera-Laich-Ward
Hendircks-Beagle-random plug

If, instead of bringing back Semin at $6M and all of his off-ice issues, you get a forward that's very productive for the money, like Whitney or Samuelsson, along with a real 3rd line center, like Stoll, Gaustad, or McClement. That forward groupd looks something like:

Ovechkin-Backstrom-Johansson
Laich-Ribeiro-Samuelsson
Chimera-Stoll-Brouwer
Hendricks-Beagle-Ward

That's roughly the same money spent on each one. I know which one I think looks more balanced and deep.

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06-12-2012, 11:08 AM
  #388
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Originally Posted by NobodyBeatsTheWiz View Post
I frankly don't care what Semin did 3 years ago. The last two seasons, he's got 28 and 21 goals. He hasn't even been close to an elite goal scorer over that period.

If he wants to take $5M, then fine, bring him back. Be with Gandler as his agent, he won't take that contract. Replacing him with someone cheaper that provides similar production not only helps the salary cap situation, but by all accounts helps the locker room situation.

I'm mystified as to why there's such staunch Semin defense on here.
Again, you're ignoring context. Those 28 and 21 goal campaigns were second on the team in their respective seasons.

If you think it is as simple as plugging in a guy who has a career average of 20-25 goals and putting him on the Caps team of the past 2 seasons with the centers that Semin has had and expect the same type of production, that is your call. I happen to disagree with that position.

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06-12-2012, 11:12 AM
  #389
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Originally Posted by Stewie G View Post
Again, you're ignoring context. Those 28 and 21 goal campaigns were second on the team in their respective seasons.

If you think it is as simple as plugging in a guy who has a career average of 20-25 goals and putting him on the Caps team of the past 2 seasons with the centers that Semin has had and expect the same type of production, that is your call. I happen to disagree with that position.
I think most would agree.

Then again, with NBTW's rationality, maybe all of the inferiorly skilled players similar to Chimera will actually INCREASE their production, since Chimera did last year as well.

Oh god, I get it now!

All of our skill players are getting worse and our benders are getting better. So we should get all the benders out there.

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06-12-2012, 11:13 AM
  #390
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Originally Posted by Stewie G View Post
Again, you're ignoring context. Those 28 and 21 goal campaigns were second on the team in their respective seasons.

If you think it is as simple as plugging in a guy who has a career average of 20-25 goals and putting him on the Caps team of the past 2 seasons with the centers that Semin has had and expect the same type of production, that is your call. I happen to disagree with that position.
I'm not ignoring context.

I don't care that those goal totals were second on the team. The context of the situation is that the forwards on those two teams sucked, and underachieved. It wasn't by design. It was ineffectiveness.

And if you don't think a lot more than just substituting production of one player for another goes into how a team will do with a change in personnel, then that is your call. I disagree with that position.

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06-12-2012, 11:14 AM
  #391
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And we thought Semin's floor was 28 goals before last year, right? I'd much rather spread the Semin money out over a couple upgrades than bring him back and hope he learns consistency in year 8 of his NHL career.

I'm down with getting Ribeiro, but if you bring back Semin at the $6M he'll demand, that's likely the only forward upgrade you'll get. The forward group probably looks something like:

Ovechkin-Backstrom-Johansson
Semin-Ribeiro-Brouwer
Chimera-Laich-Ward
Hendircks-Beagle-random plug

If, instead of bringing back Semin at $6M and all of his off-ice issues, you get a forward that's very productive for the money, like Whitney or Samuelsson, along with a real 3rd line center, like Stoll, Gaustad, or McClement. That forward groupd looks something like:

Ovechkin-Backstrom-Johansson
Laich-Ribeiro-Samuelsson
Chimera-Stoll-Brouwer
Hendricks-Beagle-Ward

That's roughly the same money spent on each one. I know which one I think looks more balanced and deep.
You mean just like most thought Ovechkin's 85 points of 2 years ago was his floor, right?

I know which of those lineups lacks a serious 2nd scoring threat.

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06-12-2012, 11:16 AM
  #392
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I'm not ignoring context.

No, I'm pretty sure you are.

The team switches from an offensive-based team to a defensive-based team and offensive totals...went down?!

Can we get some Mike Milbury-esque analysis on this thought process, I think I'm the only one seeing it.

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06-12-2012, 11:16 AM
  #393
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Originally Posted by NobodyBeatsTheWiz View Post
And we thought Semin's floor was 28 goals before last year, right? I'd much rather spread the Semin money out over a couple upgrades than bring him back and hope he learns consistency in year 8 of his NHL career.

I'm down with getting Ribeiro, but if you bring back Semin at the $6M he'll demand, that's likely the only forward upgrade you'll get. The forward group probably looks something like:

Ovechkin-Backstrom-Johansson
Semin-Ribeiro-Brouwer
Chimera-Laich-Ward
Hendircks-Beagle-random plug

If, instead of bringing back Semin at $6M and all of his off-ice issues, you get a forward that's very productive for the money, like Whitney or Samuelsson, along with a real 3rd line center, like Stoll, Gaustad, or McClement. That forward groupd looks something like:

Ovechkin-Backstrom-Johansson
Laich-Ribeiro-Samuelsson
Chimera-Stoll-Brouwer
Hendricks-Beagle-Ward

That's roughly the same money spent on each one. I know which one I think looks more balanced and deep.
Maybe. I wouldn't mind that lineup. I do know that the second line in your first example as much more potential than the one in your second. Whether that would be realized is difficult to say.

Quote:
I don't care that those goal totals were second on the team. The context of the situation is that the forwards on those two teams sucked, and underachieved. It wasn't by design. It was ineffectiveness.
See, that's the issue for me. It wasn't by design, but there was no design to prevent it. I would like a coach to come in who actually coaches them offensively. They have very good puck-moving defensemen and their breakout has been absolutely abysmal for a while. How ****ing hard is it to do something about that? Institute an actual system on offense and try to get the most out of the players.

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06-12-2012, 11:18 AM
  #394
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They need those players regardless if they want to win a Cup. They're too easy to match up against otherwise.

The same old group geared differently is maybe enough in the regular season but not as contenders, not absent huge growth in Johansson's game. The tough thing with a flawed approach is properly self-evaluating what you have going forward. I can maybe see Brouwer as a decent enough 2W making it two top six forwards needed but finding that playmaking center and goal-scoring winger combo to provide necessary secondary scoring is not easy.
IMO you can't have an Ovechkin making what he is making and then another 2 guys making what Backstrom and Semin are making and still have at least 2 or even 3 more 100% legit top 6 guys.

Ovechkin, Semin, Backstrom, and Laich more or less made as much as the entire King's top 6 of Kopitar, Richards, Carter, Penner, Williams, and Brown.

You can either have a few very high end guys or great depth but not both IMO...

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06-12-2012, 11:18 AM
  #395
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You mean just like most thought Ovechkin's 85 points of 2 years ago was his floor, right?

I know which of those lineups lacks a serious 2nd scoring threat.
This isn't a discussion about Ovechkin. I don't know why the Semin supporters always want to make it into one. This is a discussion about a player that's a pending UFA, who a decision has to be made about within the next 3 weeks.

I know which of those lineups lacks a real 3rd line center. I know which of those lineups spends $6M+ on a UFA that's a locker room problem and has regressed massively the last two years.

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06-12-2012, 11:19 AM
  #396
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I'm not ignoring context.

I don't care that those goal totals were second on the team. The context of the situation is that the forwards on those two teams sucked, and underachieved. It wasn't by design. I was ineffectiveness.

And if you don't think a lot more than just substituting production of one player for another goes into how a team will do with a change in personnel, than that is your call. I disagree with that position.
You absolutely are. Putting a consistent 20-25 goal scorer in Semin's position with his linemates and the team's defensive posture and I doubt any of them hit 20 goals last season.

I don't even know what you're trying to say in your 3rd paragraph, other than a sad attempt at mocking me.

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06-12-2012, 11:20 AM
  #397
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This isn't a discussion about Ovechkin. I don't know why the Semin supporters always want to make it into one.
Yea guys, get with the program.

We can only talk about one Russian underacheiver at a time. Don't even THINK about talking about both at the same time or think the offensive numbers declining across the board for the entire team has anything to do with Semin. It's all Semin's fault.

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06-12-2012, 11:22 AM
  #398
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You absolutely are. Putting a consistent 20-25 goal scorer in Semin's position with his linemates and the team's defensive posture and I doubt any of them hit 20 goals last season.

I don't even know what you're trying to say in your 3rd paragraph, other than a sad attempt at mocking me.
No, I'm not. I watched the context unfold. Semin wasn't a victim of his situation. He was a victim of his own inconsistency and unintelligent play. You're ignoring that.

I'm trying to say exactly what I said in the 3rd paragraph.

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06-12-2012, 11:26 AM
  #399
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Originally Posted by NobodyBeatsTheWiz View Post
This isn't a discussion about Ovechkin. I don't know why the Semin supporters always want to make it into one. This is a discussion about a player that's a pending UFA, who a decision has to be made about within the next 3 weeks.

I know which of those lineups lacks a real 3rd line center. I know which of those lineups spends $6M+ on a UFA that's a locker room problem and has regressed massively the last two years.
This is a discussion about context. Overall team and individual teammate offensive numbers are essential in developing that context. You appear to be ignoring the rest of the team's offensive floundering when it comes to Semin. His numbers didn't drop while the rest of the team kept up their previous numbers.

I know which hole I'd rather have. 3rd line centers, while important, are easier to find than high-end scoring threats.

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06-12-2012, 11:29 AM
  #400
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This is a discussion about context. Overall team and individual teammate offensive numbers are essential in developing that context. You appear to be ignoring the rest of the team's offensive floundering when it comes to Semin. His numbers didn't drop while the rest of the team kept up their previous numbers.
No Stewie, it's only you that sees this. Semin is the reason the team's numbers went down, because like if Semin's numbers are up, so are the team's! NBTW totally gets it.

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