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Luongo Trade Talk - Part VI

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Old
06-16-2012, 07:52 PM
  #951
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Originally Posted by TheDiver View Post
True, but to be fair, Luongo feasted on some non-playoff teams.

In the 28 games he played against playoff teams he got 15 W's, 8 Losses and 5 went to a shootout.

That's a regulation win in 53% of those games.


Cory Schneider had 13 games against playoff teams, and had regulation wins in 7 of them, with three losses and 1 shootout and then he got pulled in one after a period in Nashville.

That's a regulation win in about 54% of those games.

No here is the kicker...


Schneider's GAA was the 3rd best in the NHL his year. Against playoff teams? It was dismal... A 2.31 GAA.
Against non-playoff teams...it was a stellar 1.68 GAA.

Luongo's was a 2.41 against playoff teams. Dismal as well.

To me it's a wash.


Now these are my calculations so numbers might be off but probably not by much.

As a result...both these goalies are a microcosm of their team: feasting on a weak division and other weak opponents, and faultering against the best defensive teams. This needs to be addressed.


I think the numbers, when you break them down, are pretty similar.

In the end, the advantage to keeping Schneider over Luongo is that he is cheaper, leaving cap space for the Canucks' REAL PROBLEM: not having a second line.

Booth hasn't proven he can play top 6, Mason Raymond is a joke in that role, Chris Higgins is better on the third, and Kesler is coming off surgery again.
I'm still working on my new "advanced stat", but in reading your post, I think you have the numbers a little off.

If luongo produced 35 points in 28 games against playoff teams, that means he secured 62.5% of available points while Schneider secured just 57.5% of available points against playoff teams.

Common sense should dictate that the difference in stats is only due to Schneider playing weaker opponents. Should both goalies play an even amount (or percentage) of playoff teams as well as non-playoff teams, Luongo will surely come out ahead in not only stats but also points/wins gained.

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06-16-2012, 09:07 PM
  #952
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I don't see a huge discrepancy between the quality of starts between the two goalies this last season. 26 of Luongo's 54 starts (48.1%) were against playoff teams while 11 of Schneider's 28 starts (39.3%) were against playoff competition. The fact is the Canucks simply had a really easy schedule with only 37 of their 82 games coming against playoff teams.

As for how they performed in those starts, here are the numbers:

Luongo: 14-7-5; .923 sv%; 2.41 gaa

Schneider: 6-4-1; .932 sv%; 2.19 gaa

So Schneider performed better, though his goal support was lacking in a lot of those games. Schneider also played almost all of those games earlier in the season when the skaters were actually playing well. From early December to the end of the season he only started 3 games against playoff teams. Conversely, about 2/3rds of Luongo's starts against playoff teams were after Christmas when the team basically checked out.

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06-16-2012, 09:13 PM
  #953
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Originally Posted by opendoor View Post
I don't see a huge discrepancy between the quality of starts between the two goalies this last season. 26 of Luongo's 54 starts (48.1%) were against playoff teams while 11 of Schneider's 28 starts (39.3%) were against playoff competition. The fact is the Canucks simply had a really easy schedule with only 37 of their 82 games coming against playoff teams.

As for how they performed in those starts, here are the numbers:

Luongo: 14-7-5; .923 sv%; 2.41 gaa

Schneider: 6-4-1; .932 sv%; 2.19 gaa

So Schneider performed better, though his goal support was lacking in a lot of those games. Schneider also played almost all of those games earlier in the season when the skaters were actually playing well. From early December to the end of the season he only started 3 games against playoff teams. Conversely, about 2/3rds of Luongo's starts against playoff teams were after Christmas when the team basically checked out.
I wonder if the team played harder in front of Schneider, but scored less because they have taken Roberto for granted.

They play a more defense first game with CS in the pipes....why?

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06-16-2012, 09:21 PM
  #954
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Originally Posted by opendoor View Post
I don't see a huge discrepancy between the quality of starts between the two goalies this last season. 26 of Luongo's 54 starts (48.1%) were against playoff teams while 11 of Schneider's 28 starts (39.3%) were against playoff competition. The fact is the Canucks simply had a really easy schedule with only 37 of their 82 games coming against playoff teams.

As for how they performed in those starts, here are the numbers:

Luongo: 14-7-5; .923 sv%; 2.41 gaa

Schneider: 6-4-1; .932 sv%; 2.19 gaa

So Schneider performed better, though his goal support was lacking in a lot of those games. Schneider also played almost all of those games earlier in the season when the skaters were actually playing well. From early December to the end of the season he only started 3 games against playoff teams. Conversely, about 2/3rds of Luongo's starts against playoff teams were after Christmas when the team basically checked out.
Luongo: 14-7-5; .923 sv%; 2.41 gaa = 63.4% of available points

Schneider: 6-4-1; .932 sv%; 2.19 gaa = 59% of available points

You can say Schneider played better, but Luongo earned more points for the team, and that's really what it's all about.

Now, we have to go back and see what the average goals scored for the opposing teams was and see whether our goalies played above or below those averages.


P.S - 5 OT losses might earn you points (and in some cases Lu's best games were these), but they'll kill your stat line


Last edited by Hal 9000*: 06-16-2012 at 09:26 PM.
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06-16-2012, 09:49 PM
  #955
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I wonder if the team played harder in front of Schneider, but scored less because they have taken Roberto for granted.

They play a more defense first game with CS in the pipes....why?
Schneider was actually ranked first in save percentage when facing shots from 1-15 feet out, according to the data collected in a dobberhockey article I read.

http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index...ics&Itemid=117

Not really sure where Luongo ranks, but he's out of the top 6. The data also suggests that Schneider would have been on pace to face more shots from that distance per game than all the other goaltenders on that list, save for Hiller.

The article doesn't list the data from 15-30 feet out. The data lists the save percentage for shots 30-45 feet out, where Schneider ranks 5th. Luongo is ranked 10th at this distance.

Perhaps it isn't that the Canucks played better defensively in front of Schneider, but rather that Schneider was able to make saves Luongo didn't.

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06-16-2012, 09:51 PM
  #956
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Originally Posted by Hal 9000 View Post
Luongo: 14-7-5; .923 sv%; 2.41 gaa = 63.4% of available points

Schneider: 6-4-1; .932 sv%; 2.19 gaa = 59% of available points

You can say Schneider played better, but Luongo earned more points for the team, and that's really what it's all about.

Now, we have to go back and see what the average goals scored for the opposing teams was and see whether our goalies played above or below those averages.


P.S - 5 OT losses might earn you points (and in some cases Lu's best games were these), but they'll kill your stat line
Much like with Luongo, I have a hard time criticizing Schneider's W/L record when the team simply didn't score. In his 5 losses against playoff teams the team generated only 3 GF with him in net (they did get 5 GF in the 6-5 Nashville loss where he was pulled, but only 1 of those was with him in net). That's basically an impossible scenario for a goalie to come away with a good record. So much like in his 3 games this playoffs, I don't think Schneider's record is reflective at all of how he played in those games.

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06-16-2012, 09:56 PM
  #957
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Originally Posted by opendoor View Post
Much like with Luongo, I have a hard time criticizing Schneider's W/L record when the team simply didn't score. In his 5 losses against playoff teams the team generated only 3 GF with him in net (they did get 5 GF in the 6-5 Nashville loss where he was pulled, but only 1 of those was with him in net). That's basically an impossible scenario for a goalie to come away with a good record. So much like in his 3 games this playoffs, I don't think Schneider's record is reflective at all of how he played in those games.
Schneider let in 3 goals on 5 shots in that game, the Canucks came back to make a game of it, but Luongo took the official loss. Otherwise, Luongo's W/L record would be better - but that game was an anomaly anyway.

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06-16-2012, 09:57 PM
  #958
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There's an interesting article on zone start adjusted save percentage for goaltenders, and the author has used these numbers to argue against Luongo's value. He says that these numbers would indicate that when the action starts in Luongo's own zone, his numbers dip down to league average save percentage.

http://hockeyanalysis.com/2012/04/26...ve-percentage/

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06-16-2012, 10:09 PM
  #959
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Quote:
Originally Posted by opendoor View Post
Much like with Luongo, I have a hard time criticizing Schneider's W/L record when the team simply didn't score. In his 5 losses against playoff teams the team generated only 3 GF with him in net (they did get 5 GF in the 6-5 Nashville loss where he was pulled, but only 1 of those was with him in net). That's basically an impossible scenario for a goalie to come away with a good record. So much like in his 3 games this playoffs, I don't think Schneider's record is reflective at all of how he played in those games.
So do you trade the goalie who won't bring back an asset that addresses our needs, thus putting the goalie you are left with in the same position to not succeed? Or do you trade the goalie that will bring back an asset that addresses our needs, thus putting the goalie we keep in a position to succeed?

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06-16-2012, 10:27 PM
  #960
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Originally Posted by y2kcanucks View Post
So do you trade the goalie who won't bring back an asset that addresses our needs, thus putting the goalie you are left with in the same position to not succeed? Or do you trade the goalie that will bring back an asset that addresses our needs, thus putting the goalie we keep in a position to succeed?
Haven't been many goalies traded lately. How can we determine what a return would be.

Lindback, a backup goalie who went for a pair of 2nd round picks.
Lehtonen, traded for a Ivan Vishnevsky (former 1st rounder) and a 4th rounder. Vishnevsky now plays in the KHL.
Giguere, traded for Jason Blake.
Varlamnov traded for a 1st and 2nd round pick.
Halak dealt for Eller (former 1st rounder) and Schultz.
Anderson and Elliott were swapped for each other in 2011.
Bryz dealt to Philly for very little when he was about to become a UFA.
Roloson went for Wishart (former 1st rounder).
Vokoun, going from Nash to FLA went for a 1st, 2nd and 3rd rounder.

How do you read the goalie market from that? Go through the 60 goalies that were on opening day rosters and see how those teams acquired them... Only a handful were via traded.

I don't think Cory would return the top notch young scorer the team covets. Scoring is way down in the NHL these days for teams to move a top 6 forward. I mean, how many teams on TSN review analysis are looking for a top 6 forward? How many have top 6 calibre players to spare?

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06-16-2012, 11:00 PM
  #961
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Originally Posted by Bourdon View Post
There's an interesting article on zone start adjusted save percentage for goaltenders, and the author has used these numbers to argue against Luongo's value. He says that these numbers would indicate that when the action starts in Luongo's own zone, his numbers dip down to league average save percentage.

http://hockeyanalysis.com/2012/04/26...ve-percentage/
FWIW, he is a Leafs fan. Not saying it discounts all his work, but there might be some bias there.

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06-16-2012, 11:07 PM
  #962
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Originally Posted by Bourdon View Post
There's an interesting article on zone start adjusted save percentage for goaltenders, and the author has used these numbers to argue against Luongo's value. He says that these numbers would indicate that when the action starts in Luongo's own zone, his numbers dip down to league average save percentage.

http://hockeyanalysis.com/2012/04/26...ve-percentage/
It's also one of the worse statistics blogs around. I haven't read this particular article, but stuff he has written in the past has been highly suspect and I've seen more errors than I can count. I, personally, don't even go there anymore.

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06-16-2012, 11:12 PM
  #963
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Originally Posted by Bourdon View Post
There's an interesting article on zone start adjusted save percentage for goaltenders, and the author has used these numbers to argue against Luongo's value. He says that these numbers would indicate that when the action starts in Luongo's own zone, his numbers dip down to league average save percentage.

http://hockeyanalysis.com/2012/04/26...ve-percentage/
I question the utility of disregarding the first 10 seconds after every faceoff. Unless it can be argued that saves made in that time are not based on a goalie's skill or are primarily a product of the skaters, it seems like a pointless exercise.

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06-16-2012, 11:27 PM
  #964
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Originally Posted by opendoor View Post
I question the utility of disregarding the first 10 seconds after every faceoff. Unless it can be argued that saves made in that time are not based on a goalie's skill or are primarily a product of the skaters, it seems like a pointless exercise.
In advanced stat analysis it is common to disregard portions of stats in order to get a fairer comparison. This is whywe often disregard powerplay or short handed ice time. PP shots against are more difficult and because goalies face different number of Pp shots for fairness we just consider even strength save percentage. Goalies face differing number of easier '10 second' shots so for fairness we should not factor them into the comparison.

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06-16-2012, 11:28 PM
  #965
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If the Canucks don't play a better defensive system in front of their own net, it won't matter who's in net. Too bad we're stuck with another season of elite goaltending covering up the woeful coaching of Alain Vigneault's best friend Ricky Bowness.

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06-16-2012, 11:30 PM
  #966
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Originally Posted by HockeyAnalysis View Post
In advanced stat analysis it is common to disregard portions of stats in order to get a fairer comparison. This is whywe often disregard powerplay or short handed ice time. PP shots against are more difficult and because goalies face different number of Pp shots for fairness we just consider even strength save percentage. Goalies face differing number of easier '10 second' shots so for fairness we should not factor them into the comparison.
Sounds to me like you should factor them all in and then compare the differences instead of doctoring the stats to fit you argument.

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06-16-2012, 11:30 PM
  #967
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FWIW, he is a Leafs fan. Not saying it discounts all his work, but there might be some bias there.
I am a Leaf fan yes, but I am torn as to whether i want Luongo or not. On a 4-5 year contract yes, a 10 year contract maybe not.

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06-16-2012, 11:34 PM
  #968
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Anyone think if the CBA wasn't in need of an extension for another few years we'd be able to get what we think is fair for Luongo?

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06-16-2012, 11:34 PM
  #969
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So do you trade the goalie who won't bring back an asset that addresses our needs, thus putting the goalie you are left with in the same position to not succeed? Or do you trade the goalie that will bring back an asset that addresses our needs, thus putting the goalie we keep in a position to succeed?
I can also ask you do you trade a goalie who can be your starter for another 8-10 years, or trade one who has another 2-3 years in his prime left. But with 10 years left on his deal?

I also question these absurd amounts people think schneider will return, he will fetch a better return then roberto, but it wont be game changing different. For every argument you hear about lous contract, your going to hear schneider is not proven enough and has not started an entire season and you will get lower offers then you expect for him as well. And is it worth getting a bit better return now for a possible future franchise goalie that can provide us another 8 years of goaltending? Everyone is thinking about this supposed window we have, and panicking. We have no idea about this window. We could have bad injuries this year again and not go far.

People on here over value there own teams players. Schneider will fetch a good return imo, but he will not return a game changing player yet.

I think if you throw him out there on the main board some fans will get disappointed just like roberto with lower then expected returns and offers.

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06-16-2012, 11:35 PM
  #970
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Sounds to me like you should factor them all in and then compare the differences instead of doctoring the stats to fit you argument.
You can factor them in using some sort of standardized weighting but then you may come up against small sample size issues. There is no perfect solution for dealing with it but not taking it into consideration is probably worse. The effect on a goalies save percentage is significant.

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06-16-2012, 11:39 PM
  #971
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I can also ask you do you trade a goalie who can be your starter for another 8-10 years, or trade one who has another 2-3 years in his prime left. But with 10 years left on his deal?

I also question these absurd amounts people think schneider will return, he will fetch a better return then roberto, but it wont be game changing different. For every argument you hear about lous contract, your going to hear schneider is not proven enough and has not started an entire season and you will get lower offers then you expect for him as well. And is it worth getting a bit better return now for a possible future franchise goalie that can provide us another 8 years of goaltending? Everyone is thinking about this supposed window we have, and panicking. We have no idea about this window. We could have bad injuries this year again and not go far.

People on here over value there own teams players. Schneider will fetch a good return imo, but he will not return a game changing player yet.

I think if you throw him out there on the main board some fans will get disappointed just like roberto with lower then expected returns and offers.
Schneider is going to sign a 2-3 year deal, and nothing guarantees he'll be here after that.

I absolutely hate that argument he could be here for 8-10 years, I can't wrap my head around that.

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06-16-2012, 11:43 PM
  #972
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Schneider is going to sign a 2-3 year deal, and nothing guarantees he'll be here after that.

I absolutely hate that argument he could be here for 8-10 years, I can't wrap my head around that.
How do you know it will be a 2-3 year deal? Are you privy to these conversations? If we treat schneider right, and pay him a fair wage, i think like most goalies he will stay with us for awhile and show loyalty. We put alot of faith in him building him and giving him the starting job, even possibly pushing a possible hall of fame goalie aside for him. Its a bit different with lou who was established and signed to a huge contract when he came here. We are essentially building schneider ourselves. And at least schneider has the potential to be our franchise goalie for a number of years, one thing is for certain lou only has so many good years left due to his age.

I know what your saying, dreger discussed schneiders agent needs to decide to go long term all in now with the canucks incase he has a bad season and his value goes down. Or to take a small contract for a couple years and possibly increase his worth, its a risk nobody knows the answer to. Even if he does sign 2-3 years theres nothing to say he cannot resign with us again.

I cant wrap my head around the idea people seem to think lou has a good 6 years left, or we can simply switch to lack.


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06-16-2012, 11:44 PM
  #973
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Originally Posted by HockeyAnalysis View Post
In advanced stat analysis it is common to disregard portions of stats in order to get a fairer comparison. This is whywe often disregard powerplay or short handed ice time. PP shots against are more difficult and because goalies face different number of Pp shots for fairness we just consider even strength save percentage. Goalies face differing number of easier '10 second' shots so for fairness we should not factor them into the comparison.
That's because people have shown there is no repeatability to PKSV% season to season and randomness dwarfs any skill element - hence the huge disparities between top and bottom PKSV%s season to season. Can you say the same thing for EVSV% in the ten seconds following a faceoff?

Why not just normalize the numbers to an equivalent proportion of shots coming in 10 seconds after a faceoff?

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06-16-2012, 11:53 PM
  #974
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How do you know it will be a 2-3 year deal? Are you privy to these conversations? If we treat schneider right, and pay him a fair wage, i think like most goalies he will stay with the organization for quite awhile. We put alot of faith in him building him and giving him the starting job, even possibly pushing a possible hall of fame goalie aside for him.

I cant wrap my head around the idea people seem to think lou has a good 6 years left, or we can simply switch to lack.
So, you want to sign Schneider with all his 70 odd games to an 8 year deal? Personally, I'd take the guy we have locked up, bank the 100 points, have a look at Lack and not worry about goaltending for a few more years.

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06-16-2012, 11:55 PM
  #975
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Originally Posted by HockeyAnalysis View Post
In advanced stat analysis it is common to disregard portions of stats in order to get a fairer comparison. This is whywe often disregard powerplay or short handed ice time. PP shots against are more difficult and because goalies face different number of Pp shots for fairness we just consider even strength save percentage. Goalies face differing number of easier '10 second' shots so for fairness we should not factor them into the comparison.
But Luongo didn't face vastly higher of a percentage of '10 second' shots than some other elite goalies (Lundqvist and Thomas most notably), he just saved more of them. If he was posting a hugely unsustainable number (like Schneider's .960 PK SV% this year) I'd buy that there'd be a regression, but given that you're working with a 3 year sample, there's already some demonstrable sustainability.

Perhaps accounting for and normalizing these differences in the percentage of those shots each goalie faces makes sense, but completely eliminating them doesn't in my mind.

Not to mention, most of Luongo's numbers are going to take a hit in a 3 year sample because it includes the worst season of his career 3 years ago. His last 2 years were much better as were the 3 before that.

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