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Luongo Trade Talk - Part VI

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06-16-2012, 10:59 PM
  #976
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Originally Posted by opendoor View Post
But Luongo didn't face vastly higher of a percentage of '10 second' shots than some other elite goalies (Lundqvist and Thomas most notably), he just saved more of them. If he was posting a hugely unsustainable number (like Schneider's .960 PK SV% this year) I'd buy that there'd be a regression, but given that you're working with a 3 year sample, there's already some demonstrable sustainability.

Perhaps accounting for and normalizing these differences in the percentage of those shots each goalie faces makes sense, but completely eliminating them doesn't in my mind.

Not to mention, most of Luongo's numbers are going to take a hit in a 3 year sample because it includes the worst season of his career 3 years ago. His last 2 years were much better as were the 3 before that.
I think we can all agree that those stats are bunk.

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06-16-2012, 11:04 PM
  #977
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So, you want to sign Schneider with all his 70 odd games to an 8 year deal? Personally, I'd take the guy we have locked up, bank the 100 points, have a look at Lack and not worry about goaltending for a few more years.
Never said i want an 8 year deal, I said he can be our franchise goalie for another 8 years, he has that amount of time in the league, and if we treat him right, and have a good relationship and plays well, theres no reason he cannot resign here for a 2nd time. Your also proving the argument we would face when people think schneider should be traded because he will fetch such a huge amount. Teams will say he is still unproven and we wont get what everyone thinks we should for him.

Again with roberto i give him 3 more solid years in his prime (and thats an if as well), at which point he will be 36 going on 37, and if the story about him wanting to retire in 4 years is true even if he is still playing good...then where do we go? Hope that lack works out? And if lack works out whats to say he would even want to stay and resign here? Lack puts us back in the position we are at right now with schneider, and thats a big if whether he can be what schneider is. With schneider we have goalie with a bright future and a good chance at keeping him our franchise goalie for a number of years.


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06-16-2012, 11:22 PM
  #978
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Never said i want an 8 year deal, I said he can be our franchise goalie for another 8 years, he has that amount of time in the league, and if we treat him right, and have a good relationship and plays well, theres no reason he cannot resign here for a 2nd time. Your also proving the argument we would face when people think schneider should be traded because he will fetch such a huge amount. Teams will say he is still unproven and we wont get what everyone thinks we should for him.

Again with roberto i give him 3 more solid years in his prime (and thats an if as well), at which point he will be 36 going on 37, and if the story about him wanting to retire in 4 years is true even if he is still playing good...then where do we go? Hope that lack works out? And if lack works out whats to say he would even want to stay and resign here? Lack puts us back in the position we are at right now with schneider, and thats a big if whether he can be what schneider is. With schneider we have goalie with a bright future and a good chance at keeping him our franchise goalie for a number of years.
The only known we have in this entire equation is that we have the best goalie we've ever had locked up until he retires, that's pretty good for me. Worrying about what happens with lack or without Schneider is all just overreaction.

Let's face reality and worry about who or what will replace the Sedins and Burrows in a couple years. I'd bet anything that Luongo is a more effective player long after the Sedins are deemed ineffective.

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06-16-2012, 11:55 PM
  #979
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While we're at it, I think we should also exclude shots/saves on odd man rushes, because the save percentage will be greatly affected by the quality of defending, and defending a 2-on-1 is primarily a function of good coaching, therefore save percentage on 2-on-1s is really a measure of coaching effectiveness, not goaltending effectiveness.

 
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06-16-2012, 11:57 PM
  #980
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what would the canucks expect off the leafs you think (if they traded luongo to them) ?

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06-17-2012, 12:06 AM
  #981
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If the Canucks don't play a better defensive system in front of their own net, it won't matter who's in net. Too bad we're stuck with another season of elite goaltending covering up the woeful coaching of Alain Vigneault's best friend Ricky Bowness.
IMO that ties into AV's coaching as well with the poor forward support for the D when attempting to break out of our zone. Very curious to know how many scoring chances this team gives up compared to other NHL teams.

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06-17-2012, 12:50 AM
  #982
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Egod some people take hockey to seriously.

We need to deal a goalie; everyone agrees that it should be based on "moneypuck" (a new word i invented) evaluation. compare the offers against the short and long term value of the two "elite" goalies, taking into the account that Schnieder is more flashy, could be generational vs Luongo is proven, with a longer expensive contract that is either a good deal or a bad deal depending on whether or not you are arguing with Y2K, and go from there.

Either of these goalies could be a mistake to move. None of us know which (yes i know Y2K believes he knows) but I will trust GMMG to be better than HF boards on the decision.

And come on, arguing that we will get a better return from Schneider cuz he is the weaker goalie is a poor arguement.

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06-17-2012, 01:56 AM
  #983
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Originally Posted by billvanseattle View Post
Egod some people take hockey to seriously.

We need to deal a goalie; everyone agrees that it should be based on "moneypuck" (a new word i invented) evaluation. compare the offers against the short and long term value of the two "elite" goalies, taking into the account that Schnieder is more flashy, could be generational vs Luongo is proven, with a longer expensive contract that is either a good deal or a bad deal depending on whether or not you are arguing with Y2K, and go from there.

Either of these goalies could be a mistake to move. None of us know which (yes i know Y2K believes he knows) but I will trust GMMG to be better than HF boards on the decision.

And come on, arguing that we will get a better return from Schneider cuz he is the weaker goalie is a poor arguement.
That word's been around a while. But u're right, we need to deal a goalie and it should be Luongo. No offense to Lu, but we drafted and developed Schneids. I'll be pissed if the Canucks org does all the hard work to help some other team get better at the most important position. Whatever return we get won't be enough to cover what we lose in Schneids.

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06-17-2012, 04:14 AM
  #984
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Originally Posted by opendoor View Post
Much like with Luongo, I have a hard time criticizing Schneider's W/L record when the team simply didn't score. In his 5 losses against playoff teams the team generated only 3 GF with him in net (they did get 5 GF in the 6-5 Nashville loss where he was pulled, but only 1 of those was with him in net). That's basically an impossible scenario for a goalie to come away with a good record. So much like in his 3 games this playoffs, I don't think Schneider's record is reflective at all of how he played in those games.
Precisely.

The Canucks don't have a second line. Its only June...but if they don't have one come September, I would panic.

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06-17-2012, 07:27 AM
  #985
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While we're at it, I think we should also exclude shots/saves on odd man rushes, because the save percentage will be greatly affected by the quality of defending, and defending a 2-on-1 is primarily a function of good coaching, therefore save percentage on 2-on-1s is really a measure of coaching effectiveness, not goaltending effectiveness.
There has been a lot of work done on this sort of thing but most dismiss 'shot quality' being important to consider. I do not agree but have not found a way to account for it with currently available stats.

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06-17-2012, 09:42 AM
  #986
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Originally Posted by billvanseattle View Post
Egod some people take hockey to seriously.

We need to deal a goalie; everyone agrees that it should be based on "moneypuck" (a new word i invented) evaluation. compare the offers against the short and long term value of the two "elite" goalies, taking into the account that Schnieder is more flashy, could be generational vs Luongo is proven, with a longer expensive contract that is either a good deal or a bad deal depending on whether or not you are arguing with Y2K, and go from there.

Either of these goalies could be a mistake to move. None of us know which (yes i know Y2K believes he knows) but I will trust GMMG to be better than HF boards on the decision.

And come on, arguing that we will get a better return from Schneider cuz he is the weaker goalie is a poor arguement.
Seriously? people think that?

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06-17-2012, 09:52 AM
  #987
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Seriously? people think that?
no.

I think the poster means "generational" in the sense Schneider could be the #1 for this team for the rest of his career.

Think Cam Ward, not Martin Brodeur.

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06-17-2012, 10:31 AM
  #988
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Seriously? people think that?
no what i was trying to say is we have no idea if Schneider is going to be a generational talent aka Crosby as one extreme, and at the other be just another goaltender who looked like he was up and coming and turns out to be a complete flop; leaving us needing a starting goaltender.

Clearly the two extremes are just that; reality is that we expect Cory to be a damned good goalie but he is unproven. What you have with Luongo is already proven.

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06-17-2012, 11:02 AM
  #989
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no what i was trying to say is we have no idea if Schneider is going to be a generational talent aka Crosby as one extreme, and at the other be just another goaltender who looked like he was up and coming and turns out to be a complete flop; leaving us needing a starting goaltender.

Clearly the two extremes are just that; reality is that we expect Cory to be a damned good goalie but he is unproven. What you have with Luongo is already proven.
Exactly, meaning with Luongo you know you're going to get elite goaltending. With Schneider, perhaps you get better goaltending, or perhaps you get the next Andrew Raycroft.

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06-17-2012, 11:32 AM
  #990
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I guess my view is that Luongo is better than Cory, I've never felt super confidant in the team in front of him, when we made it to the finals I was surprised, happy for sure.

I've never felt like our offense was killer enough and I've felt as though our d needs two more, I'm content with the Sedins + Burrows for a top line, I am not impressed with Booth in the slightest and poor Raymond had me in stitches this last season, in my mind we still need to find people to play with Kesler and maybe ZK steps up maybe hes a year or two out still, either way I'm skeptical about next years play offs and I'd much much rather trade Cory for an elite winger and sign a legit D.

Yes Luongo has made some mistakes but my god, the rest of the team has been collectively far worse and something needs to be changed, whats between the pipes is the very least of the Canucks problems.

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06-17-2012, 11:34 AM
  #991
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no.

I think the poster means "generational" in the sense Schneider could be the #1 for this team for the rest of his career.

Think Cam Ward, not Martin Brodeur.
I'm always kind of hesitant to use the words 'generational talent' with Brodeur. Kind of thought of him as a 'poor man's Gordie Howe' with respect to goalies (in terms of longevity AND level of performance). But people often forget, Howe *was* THE dominant player for a number of seasons (eg., wasn't just a "Mike Gartner type" who was able to score a respectable number of goals per season for umpteen years but never one of the best players in the league for a length of time). Brodeur had those type of seasons once in a while but I don't think he was that dominant over his peers for a lengthy period of time).

Call be baised.

(Luongo is a "poor man's Brodeur").

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06-17-2012, 11:40 AM
  #992
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I think Schnieds is the real deal. He's proved that he is elite at every level, even the NHL - he was every bit as good as Quick was this past playoffs, but Schnieds just hasn't seen enough games to pass the "unproven" barrier.

Is there anything that indicates Schnieder couldn't handle the load? No - he has the skills, the calm demeanor, the track record, and his elite NHL stats.

IMO, he is all but proven, unless you think he will crack under the pressure... but I prefer to believe in irony - Canucks never having an elite goalie, then as soon as we acquire one, we finally develope one. (much like looking for forwards with size, while we could've drafted Quinton Howden instead of acquiring Ballard)

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06-17-2012, 11:56 AM
  #993
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I'm always kind of hesitant to use the words 'generational talent' with Brodeur. Kind of thought of him as a 'poor man's Gordie Howe' with respect to goalies (in terms of longevity AND level of performance). But people often forget, Howe *was* THE dominant player for a number of seasons (eg., wasn't just a "Mike Gartner type" who was able to score a respectable number of goals per season for umpteen years but never one of the best players in the league for a length of time). Brodeur had those type of seasons once in a while but I don't think he was that dominant over his peers for a lengthy period of time).

Call be baised.

(Luongo is a "poor man's Brodeur").
The thing is, you win a Cup and all those other accomplishments (Vezinas, Gold medals, team MVP awars, etc) become supporting arguments to the greatness of the players legacy.

When you don't win a Cup, those things like Gold Medals or Vezinas are met with a dismissive, "yeah, but he didn't win a Cup."

Those other acomplishments are reduced to minor blips in the players career.

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06-17-2012, 12:00 PM
  #994
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Originally Posted by Barney Gumble View Post
I'm always kind of hesitant to use the words 'generational talent' with Brodeur. Kind of thought of him as a 'poor man's Gordie Howe' with respect to goalies (in terms of longevity AND level of performance). But people often forget, Howe *was* THE dominant player for a number of seasons (eg., wasn't just a "Mike Gartner type" who was able to score a respectable number of goals per season for umpteen years but never one of the best players in the league for a length of time). Brodeur had those type of seasons once in a while but I don't think he was that dominant over his peers for a lengthy period of time).

Call be baised.

(Luongo is a "poor man's Brodeur").
i kind of see luongo as a slightly richer man's barrasso. big goalie who was destined to destroy the league, but for various reasons can look as awful as he looks unstoppable.

both guys have also taken a beating from the media, rightly or wrongly.

and both guys had their worst regular season stretches due to family illness (barrasso ceded his starting position to wendell young when his daughter was diagnosed with cancer, luongo self-destructed down the stretch when his wife had her difficult pregnancy). luongo hasn't quite experienced the heights barrasso did in the '92 playoffs, but his season-to-season consistency has been better, and he's had more elite seasons overall.

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06-17-2012, 01:06 PM
  #995
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Which goalies would posters elect to have over Schneider if you could trade him today, one for one, for any other goalie in the league?

My list would be very short.

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06-17-2012, 01:16 PM
  #996
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Which goalies would posters elect to have over Schneider if you could trade him today, one for one, for any other goalie in the league?

My list would be very short.
Mine too.

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06-17-2012, 01:21 PM
  #997
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Which goalies would posters elect to have over Schneider if you could trade him today, one for one, for any other goalie in the league?

My list would be very short.
What does it matter, which goalie brings back the best asset?

The best goalie doesn't always win.

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06-17-2012, 01:24 PM
  #998
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What does it matter, which goalie brings back the best asset?

The best goalie doesn't always win.
In the last 2 years the best goalie has won the cup.

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06-17-2012, 01:38 PM
  #999
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What does it matter, which goalie brings back the best asset?

The best goalie doesn't always win.
Goaltending is the most important position on the team.

Taking a long-term view, it's quite possible that:

Schneider > Luongo + trade asset.

And that doesn't even account for what Luongo might return in a trade.

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06-17-2012, 01:47 PM
  #1000
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Last!

Who we trade should depend on returns. Prefer to keep Schneider but if he returns FAR more, he should go.

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