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Old
06-19-2012, 10:07 AM
  #126
MrWigglez
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Originally Posted by videofarmer View Post
Yeah, I prefer when players do it the way Slates did, but everyone and every situation is different.
Just ignore any talk about Pavs wanting to play somewhere else for more money rather than Winnipeg. This same thing would be happening if he was playing on any other team.
Yea I don't think this is about playing in Winnipeg, I think this is just about wanting more money.

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06-19-2012, 10:12 AM
  #127
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The bigger question here is the fairness of the entire thing. How is it fair to the other young players on the team when one player is getting paid way above their market value? It is not likely that this will set a precedence for future RFA and UFAs who would use this deal as a baseline? Pavelec is good but not 4 million good (for some reference in the Kane thread a couple of months ago people were saying 4-4.5 million for Kane is a fair deal. That's for Kane a player who has proven himself at the NHL level.) Pavelec simply hasn't proven himself to be worth that much. FA goaltending can get you .910 sv%,
This is my thoughts on it. I love pavs. I think he'll be great starter. I think he's a good starter now.

Last year, he just wasn't good enough.

For every night he was lights out and our team failed him, there was a night he let in 1-2 bad goals that cost us the game.

Is he worth 4 mil? In a vacuum, no, probably not, but i don't think he's miles away from that.

That being said, if he posts 2 good seasons in a row, with a moderate improvement from now (numbers wise .915+/2.45-) he'd be worth well over 4.

The biggest issue is he hasn't done that to date. Yes he has potential, and yes he's developed consistantly, but caving to a strong arm tactic at 4mil, it'll need to be a long term deal that eats into some of those seasons where he'd be worth 4.5-6.

The problem their is your gambling on that happening (which isn't a huge gamble IMO, his developments been great so far).

Paying for potential is fine, as long as your getting the years of that potential

.Unfortunately, I'd rather sign him short term (how many more years of RFA does he have?) and then pay out a bigger longer term contract when he's shown he's definitely going to be worth it.

Essentially, don't pay the "potential tax" with this contract. Pay the "performance" contract, which would dictate a much lower number, and statistically, it would be easier to replace via F/A doller-for-performance wise.

I'd like to see one more season out of him before we pay the potential premium.

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06-19-2012, 10:31 AM
  #128
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Originally Posted by Grind View Post
This is my thoughts on it. I love pavs. I think he'll be great starter. I think he's a good starter now.

Last year, he just wasn't good enough.

For every night he was lights out and our team failed him, there was a night he let in 1-2 bad goals that cost us the game.

Is he worth 4 mil? In a vacuum, no, probably not, but i don't think he's miles away from that.

That being said, if he posts 2 good seasons in a row, with a moderate improvement from now (numbers wise .915+/2.45-) he'd be worth well over 4.

The biggest issue is he hasn't done that to date. Yes he has potential, and yes he's developed consistantly, but caving to a strong arm tactic at 4mil, it'll need to be a long term deal that eats into some of those seasons where he'd be worth 4.5-6.

The problem their is your gambling on that happening (which isn't a huge gamble IMO, his developments been great so far).

Paying for potential is fine, as long as your getting the years of that potential

.Unfortunately, I'd rather sign him short term (how many more years of RFA does he have?) and then pay out a bigger longer term contract when he's shown he's definitely going to be worth it.

Essentially, don't pay the "potential tax" with this contract. Pay the "performance" contract, which would dictate a much lower number, and statistically, it would be easier to replace via F/A doller-for-performance wise.

I'd like to see one more season out of him before we pay the potential premium.
Completely agree. I think a lot of the problem is that Pavs agent knows the Jets are screwed if we lose him. We're not like a Vancouver where they can lose Luongo with Schneider ready to go. Would be shocked if Pavs bolts, he legitimately loves it here.

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06-19-2012, 10:42 AM
  #129
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I would say if he wants multi-years and long-term (which is being reported), the contract demands likely begin at 4 million and escalate from anywhere to 5-6 million throughout the deal. I highly, highly doubt it's 4 million across the board in terms of the length of the contract. Pavelec is going to be 25 in August and to begin the season, players in this case don't sign multi-year / long-term deals with a low salary of 4 million across the board, the salary generally always escalates, especially for a player in Pavelec's case where it's likely (but not certain) that he will improve. Do we really think Pavelec would want to play for 4 million on a 4-5 year deal as a no. 1 goaltender? I highly, highly doubt it. He'd be 30 by the end of a deal like that.

I honestly think the Jets would be fine paying Pavelec 4 million per season, but I have a feeling it's the future years of the deal where Pavelec may be demanding 5-6 million that the Jets likely do not feel comfortable with. And as of right now, I cannot blame them if this is the case.

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06-19-2012, 11:34 AM
  #130
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Originally Posted by MrWigglez View Post
It just doesn't seem like Pavs will be here for the long term at this rate... Maybe it's time we start looking for another starter now.

This is of course assuming all the stories/rumours are true.
This doesn't say at all that Pavs won't be here long-term, IMO. It says he has a wildly aggressive agent who plays hardball, especially when he doesn't have much else to go with.

It's frustrating to hear this stuff as an outsider and I can't imagine Chevy is a happy camper right now but that's the business part of the league. And who knows, maybe it's not as bad as it's being made out to be.

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06-19-2012, 12:03 PM
  #131
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And who knows, maybe it's not as bad as it's being made out to be.
I you're right! I really like Pavs... I hoped he would be here for a long time.

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06-19-2012, 12:04 PM
  #132
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I really don't understand what Dreger is doing. It's like he's trying to will Pavelec into being traded to the Leafs for some reason.

For an "insider" I think it's laughable that he's trying to scare the organization by saying we need to "pay him [4+ million a year] or trade him [to the Leafs]" .

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06-19-2012, 12:55 PM
  #133
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I don't really think Pavelec would want to go to the KHL next year. I obviously can't speak for Pavelec, but I don't think he worked this hard to make it to the NHL to then jump to the KHL.

And for all we talk about the KHL maybe offering him 4 million, we also have to admit that the "comfort" factor of the two leagues is nowhere close. NHL players are treated much, much better than their counterparts in the KHL.

One question I have is, where did the fact that Pavelec has an offer from the KHL get leaked from? Did it come from the KHL team? Did it come from a reporter? Or did it come from Pavelec's agent looking to put the screws to the Jets? It seems like we are assuming it was the last, but it just as easily could have been the 1st, and therefore we would have to infer much less intent on Pavelec to bolt.

I also don't get what's so strange about the KHL offering him a contract in the 1st place. If I was a GM in the KHL, I would get a list of all the UFAs and RFA's, and put them on the wall. At the top of the list are guys who maybe have a greater chance of playing in the KHL in case of a lockout (Russians, Czech's, etc). What would I have to lose to offer some of these guys contracts? If there is a lockout, wouldn't some or most of them rather make some money as opposed to none?

On the Jets side, unless Pavelec really does want to go to the KHL, I don't think it should be a huge issue getting a deal done. Chevy might just be waiting to see what happens with Rask and Schneider. Maybe he wants to see where they land.

In the unlikely event that Pavelec bolts, I would much rather see us try to sign or trade for a B level goalie instead of giving up huge assets (Kane, etc), for a top goalie. Everyone obviously wants to "help" us out by trading us their backup for Kane, but I don't see how that makes us better in the long run.

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06-19-2012, 01:08 PM
  #134
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Originally Posted by WJG View Post
I really don't understand what Dreger is doing. It's like he's trying to will Pavelec into being traded to the Leafs for some reason.

For an "insider" I think it's laughable that he's trying to scare the organization by saying we need to "pay him [4+ million a year] or trade him [to the Leafs]" .
Keep in mind Dreger enjoys F'ing with Winnipegers, can't blame him after all the flack we gave him for his misinformation during the Phoenix/Atlanta saga.

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Old
06-19-2012, 01:11 PM
  #135
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If Pavelec was being offer-sheeted by an NHL club for 1st and 3rd compensation level ($3,134,088 — $4,701,131, which appears to be the ballpark figure he's looking for) and a 5 year deal, would you match? Because I sure as heck would.

I think part of the issue is it's the big, bad KHL, and it creates a "we won't negotiate with terrorists" kind of mentality. Chevy needs to just suck it up and play ball. The TNSE vision seems to be centred around establishing and retaining core players, and I don't think you can argue that Pavelec is an important core piece.

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06-19-2012, 01:33 PM
  #136
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Old
06-19-2012, 01:35 PM
  #137
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I think its all part of the negotiation process, RFAs using whatever means they can to gain any leverage and hopefully drive up their value.
Remember the john tavares rumors he wanted out of long island. Even Pierre Lebrun got into the act and said JT might leave once he reached RFA status. NYI signed him to a long-term extension last fall.

Its RFAs trying to get leverage because they have very little, at the moment. Chevy has to simply put all that aside and offer a reasonable & fair deal. Don't overpay, but don't be cheap either. Do a fair deal and they will sign, imo. They are both young players playing increasing roles on the team. Their contract offers will reflect that.

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06-19-2012, 01:55 PM
  #138
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Its RFAs trying to get leverage because they have very little, at the moment. Chevy has to simply put all that aside and offer a reasonable & fair deal. Don't overpay, but don't be cheap either. Do a fair deal and they will sign, imo. They are both young players playing increasing roles on the team. Their contract offers will reflect that.
I agree, yeah. In the end for all the rhetoric and rumours and fears, the choice is ultimately Pavelec's. If he wants to come back, they'll find a way to get a deal done. And everything I've ever heard from him, or heard about him, indicates to me that he would like to be a Winnipeg Jet this year and going forward.

Chevy might have to cough up a bit more than they hoped for, but that's business. I DON'T see Chevy ever grossly overpaying anyone with the kind of contract that kills you with cap or flexibility later, so I'm not worried about having one goalie scoring a bit extra. We can take that chance.

As far as Dreger and willing Pavs to be available to the Leafs... well... SOMEONE has to goaltend for them... LOL.

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06-19-2012, 02:40 PM
  #139
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I DON'T see Chevy ever grossly overpaying anyone with the kind of contract that kills you with cap or flexibility later, so I'm not worried about having one goalie scoring a bit extra. We can take that chance.
You mean like Mike Gillis and Paul Holmgren?

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06-19-2012, 02:52 PM
  #140
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If I had my way I would give Pavelec 3MM on a one year deal and say "The ball is in your court. Play this year for your next contract. We will pay you what you show us you are worth"

Any other position other than goal and I might be a little more lenient. There are so many examples of goalies getting big paydays and not being able to live up to them. The position is so fickle.

I love Pavelec, but he needs to prove himself, by being in the best shape of his career, and working extremely hard to correct his flaws. Zach Bogosian did that and look at the year he had last year.

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06-19-2012, 03:09 PM
  #141
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Number 1 important thing for any Media that resides in Toronto or the Center of the Universe.


Everyone wants to play/come/get traded to the Leafs. It will be non stop all summer long and guess what? Nothing they ever say really comes to fruition

Look at last year

Brad Richards was all but rapped in a bow and coming to Toronto. It was a perfect fit according to the Media. Plan the Stanley cup parade. It never happened.

I remember when the Oilers got the first overall pick in 2010 and it was all the Leafs will get the number 1 pick and draft Hall because they have so many assets the Oilers need blah blah. Never happened.

You are better off not listening to anything any Toronto media person says. They are just there to throw **** at the wall so the TO masses can salivate like a pavlovian dog. Dreger used to be a decent insider. I don't think he has gotten anything right with regards to TO in years.

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06-19-2012, 03:15 PM
  #142
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I am not concerned about the rumors. I think the process behind the scenes is what counts and what we hear in public is part of the gamesmanship that goes with negociations at this level. Much like the CBA since I have no control over the process I take it for what it is and treat it as a learning opprotunity. If it was only about money Pavs would have signed with the KHL by now so the "leak" is motivated.

It may not be real hockey but it is a game.......Jet dog anyone

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06-19-2012, 04:42 PM
  #143
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I am now regretting all the votes I placed for Pavs to win play of the year.... hopefully it hasn't gone to his head!

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06-19-2012, 09:03 PM
  #144
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Let the guy walk. Puck Prospectus showed years ago a goalie is the most easily replaceable position because of how little difference there is in style between goalies. Detroit's been proving this theory for years.

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06-19-2012, 09:29 PM
  #145
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Let the guy walk. Puck Prospectus showed years ago a goalie is the most easily replaceable position because of how little difference there is in style between goalies. Detroit's been proving this theory for years.
Yeah Detroit hasn't made it past the second round in three years despite have an elite roster... They haven't proved any theory. Last time they went somewhere it was with Chris Osgood, who was a better goalie than most people knew.

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06-19-2012, 09:44 PM
  #146
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Originally Posted by WJG View Post
I really don't understand what Dreger is doing. It's like he's trying to will Pavelec into being traded to the Leafs for some reason.

For an "insider" I think it's laughable that he's trying to scare the organization by saying we need to "pay him [4+ million a year] or trade him [to the Leafs]" .
Dreger was kicking up a rumour for the Toronto market. He plays to the interests of his audience.

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06-20-2012, 09:40 AM
  #147
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Who needs an agent when you have the Winnipeg media?

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06-20-2012, 10:03 AM
  #148
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Who needs an agent when you have the Winnipeg media?
Exactly. Let's get Lawless to be everyone's agent.

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06-20-2012, 10:42 AM
  #149
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Who needs an agent when you have the Winnipeg media?
As usual, that sun article was unbiased, well written, level headed, eloquent, and entirely factual.

God bless the winnipeg sun and the pillar of integrity it presents to the journalism community, not only locally, but across the globe.

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06-20-2012, 11:33 AM
  #150
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one important thing to remember

We are a new team and organization. Agents are going to "test" the waters with us untill they get a feel for how much we will bend. we are going to see lots of "threats" and rumours and outlandish demands untill we have a reputation with the agents and players. The worst thing for the long term of the jets is to give into them, which they will not.

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