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Craig Button's Final 2012 Draft Rankings

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Old
06-13-2012, 09:18 AM
  #76
mydnyte
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Interactif View Post
As much as you want to believe this, he was spot on last year.
not quite ...in fact he was other than the consensus #1 pick he was in fact 97% wrong.
He only got pick #10 correct. I guess Scheifele was Last seasons Grigorenko for him.

Lower Case = Actual Draft Spot
Uppercase = Button

Draft#:1
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
RYAN NUGENT-HOPKINS

Draft#:2
Gabriel Landeskog
JONATHAN HUBERDEAU

Draft#:3
Jonathan Huberdeau
GABRIEL LANDESKOG

Draft#:4
Adam Larsson
RYAN MURPHY

Draft#:5
Ryan Strome
MIKA ZIBANEJAD

Draft#:6
Mika Zibanejad
RYAN STROME

Draft#:7
Mark Scheifele
SEAN COUTURIER

Draft#:8*
Sean Couturier
ADAM LARSSON

Draft#:9*
Dougie Hamilton
NATHAN BEAULIEU

Draft#:10
Jonas Brodin
JONAS BRODIN

Draft#:11*
Duncan Siemens
SVEN BARTSCHI

Draft#:12
Ryan Murphy
DOUGIE HAMILTON

Draft#:13
Sven Bartschi
JAMIESON OLEKSIAK

Draft#:14
Jamieson Oleksiak
MATTHEW PUEMPEL

Draft#:15
Jonathan Miller
ZACK PHILLIPS

Draft#:16
Joel Armia
MARK SCHEIFELE

Draft#:17
Nathan Beaulieu
NIKITA KUCHEROV

Draft#:18
Mark McNeill
PHILLIP DANAULT

Draft#:19*
Oscar Klefbom
JOEL ARMIA

Draft#:20
Connor Murphy
TOMAS JURCO

Draft#:21*
Stefan Noesen
BRANDON SAAD

Draft#:22*
Tyler Biggs
OSCAR KLEFBLOM

Draft#:23
Joseph Morrow
VLADISLAV NAMESTNIKOV

Draft#:24*
Matt Puempel
RICKARD RAKELL

Draft#:25*
Stuart Percy
JOSEPH MORROW

Draft#:26*
Phillip Danault
CONNOR MURPHY

Draft#:27
Vladislav Namestnikov
JOHN GIBSON

Draft#:28*
Zack Phillips
STUART PERCY

Draft#:29
Nicklas Jensen
TY RATTIE

Draft#:30*
Rickard Rakell
MARK MCNEILL

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Old
06-13-2012, 09:25 AM
  #77
Interactif
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mydnyte View Post
not quite ...in fact he was other than the consensus #1 pick he was in fact 97% wrong.
He only got pick #10 correct. I guess Scheifele was Last seasons Grigorenko for him.

Lower Case = Actual Draft Spot
Uppercase = Button

Draft#:1
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
RYAN NUGENT-HOPKINS

Draft#:2
Gabriel Landeskog
JONATHAN HUBERDEAU

Draft#:3
Jonathan Huberdeau
GABRIEL LANDESKOG

Draft#:4
Adam Larsson
RYAN MURPHY

Draft#:5
Ryan Strome
MIKA ZIBANEJAD

Draft#:6
Mika Zibanejad
RYAN STROME

Draft#:7
Mark Scheifele
SEAN COUTURIER

Draft#:8*
Sean Couturier
ADAM LARSSON

Draft#:9*
Dougie Hamilton
NATHAN BEAULIEU

Draft#:10
Jonas Brodin
JONAS BRODIN

Draft#:11*
Duncan Siemens
SVEN BARTSCHI

Draft#:12
Ryan Murphy
DOUGIE HAMILTON

Draft#:13
Sven Bartschi
JAMIESON OLEKSIAK

Draft#:14
Jamieson Oleksiak
MATTHEW PUEMPEL

Draft#:15
Jonathan Miller
ZACK PHILLIPS

Draft#:16
Joel Armia
MARK SCHEIFELE

Draft#:17
Nathan Beaulieu
NIKITA KUCHEROV

Draft#:18
Mark McNeill
PHILLIP DANAULT

Draft#:19*
Oscar Klefbom
JOEL ARMIA

Draft#:20
Connor Murphy
TOMAS JURCO

Draft#:21*
Stefan Noesen
BRANDON SAAD

Draft#:22*
Tyler Biggs
OSCAR KLEFBLOM

Draft#:23
Joseph Morrow
VLADISLAV NAMESTNIKOV

Draft#:24*
Matt Puempel
RICKARD RAKELL

Draft#:25*
Stuart Percy
JOSEPH MORROW

Draft#:26*
Phillip Danault
CONNOR MURPHY

Draft#:27
Vladislav Namestnikov
JOHN GIBSON

Draft#:28*
Zack Phillips
STUART PERCY

Draft#:29
Nicklas Jensen
TY RATTIE

Draft#:30*
Rickard Rakell
MARK MCNEILL
Looks pretty good to me, nailed a couple of droppers and the 2 top picks on his list justified their high ratings this year. His list mirrors what happened with the exception of a few picks. The point is not predicting, the point is where he ranks players and gauging them to the actual placings. Predicting is Mckenzie's thing.

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Old
06-13-2012, 09:27 AM
  #78
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Quote:
Originally Posted by birddog View Post
Ernie, you called the guy an idiot. I didn't call anyone an idiot. You tell me what's ignorant.
My opinion is shared by many, based on the prior history of Button and his draft rankings.

He's notorious for having wild rankings that get people talking. It's worked on this board to the extreme.

All you need to look at is his draft history. Not that impressive as a GM either.

I think he drafted Stoll, Lombardi, Phaneuf, Moen, Kobasew, and Moss, that played in the NHL. He whiffed BIG with the vast majority of his draft picks.

He was a better trader than he was drafting GM.

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Old
06-13-2012, 09:34 AM
  #79
mydnyte
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Interactif View Post
Looks pretty good to me, nailed a couple of droppers and the 2 top picks on his list justified their high ratings this year. His list mirrors what happened with the exception of a few picks. The point is not predicting, the point is where he ranks players and gauging them to the actual placings. Predicting is Mckenzie's thing.
I guess we see things differently, i see this list SO off base it's pathetic.
He's off on many players by 10-12 spots.

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06-13-2012, 09:58 AM
  #80
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Interactif View Post
Looks pretty good to me, nailed a couple of droppers and the 2 top picks on his list justified their high ratings this year. His list mirrors what happened with the exception of a few picks. The point is not predicting, the point is where he ranks players and gauging them to the actual placings. Predicting is Mckenzie's thing.
I think you got your last sentence right. If you want someone who is likely to be about as correct as possible in his predictions, go to Bobby M. I don't know how much of Button's list represents his true opinion and how much is designed to stir interest by being different. But it isn't worth getting hot about his list. Take it for entertainment purposes for the most part.

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Old
06-13-2012, 09:59 AM
  #81
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 67Cup View Post
I think you got your last sentence right. If you want someone who is likely to be about as correct as possible in his predictions, go to Bobby M. I don't know how much of Button's list represents his true opinion and how much is designed to stir interest by being different. But it isn't worth getting hot about his list. Take it for entertainment purposes for the most part.
Most of life, and everything that happens on this board, should live by your last sentence...

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Old
06-13-2012, 09:59 AM
  #82
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As the draft goes on, the margin of error increases when it comes to predictions like this. I think Button should be happy if his corrections are within +/- 2 spots in the top-10, +/- 3 spots in the 10-20 range, and +/- 5 spots in the 20-30 range.

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Old
06-13-2012, 10:30 AM
  #83
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Quote:
Originally Posted by robdicks View Post
In reality the draft almost never goes the way we predict it. Button might not be far off in his assessment because we have no idea what each team's draft list looks like. Most people consider McKenzie's draft list to be pretty reliable as it is based off of NHL scouts, but look how different his varies last year from actual:

Mckenzie's prediction is in parenthesis and next number is the difference.

1. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (1) E
2. Gabriel Landeskog (4) 2
3. Jonathan Huberdeau (3) E
4. Adam Larrson (2) 2
5. Ryan Strome (7) 2
6. Mika Zibanejad (9) 3
7. Mark Sheifele (12) 5
8. Sean Couturier (5) 3
9. Dougie Hamilton (6) 3
10. Jonas Brodin (10) E
11. Duncan Siemens (13) 2
12. Ryan Murphy (8) 4
13. Sven Bartschi (16) 3
14. Jamie Oleksiak (17) 3
15. J.T. Miller (18) 3
16. Joel Armia (14) 2
17. Nathan Beaulieu (11) 8
18. Mark McNeil (19) 1
19. Oscar Klefbom (21) 3
20. Connor Murphy (30) 10
21. Stefan Noeson (33) 12
22. Tyler Biggs (15) 7
23. Joe Morrow (20) 3
24. Matt Puempel (27) 3
25. Stuart Percy (34) 9
26. Phillip Danault (39) 13
27. Vladislav Namestnikov (31) 4
28. Zach Phillips (28) E
29. Niklas Jensen (24) 5
30. Rickard Rakell (32) 2


So really it is incredibly hard to predict. Also keep in mind he is ranking them by how good he thinks each player will be. In other words he is not high on Grigorenko. Does that mean he would leave him until 22nd to draft him? No it means he would likely trade down to a team that wants him. If noone wanted him, he would drop.
Let's try a mathematical grade...E=0 and then add up the rest of the numbers and then compare them to someone else. The smaller the number the better. I'm also going to subtract the worst score to help with the averages.

Button's top 15 last year = 35 - 5 = 30
McKeen's = 64 - 24 = 41
ISS = 57 - 18 = 39
Redline = 98 - 27 = 71
Hockey News = 103 - 29 = 74
Cerntral Scouting = 60 - 26 = 34

So, unfortunately for me, Button was the most accurate and was the only one that didn't have a major miss.

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Old
06-13-2012, 11:18 AM
  #84
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Smif View Post
Let's try a mathematical grade...E=0 and then add up the rest of the numbers and then compare them to someone else. The smaller the number the better. I'm also going to subtract the worst score to help with the averages.

Button's top 15 last year = 35 - 5 = 30
McKeen's = 64 - 24 = 41
ISS = 57 - 18 = 39
Redline = 98 - 27 = 71
Hockey News = 103 - 29 = 74
Cerntral Scouting = 60 - 26 = 34

So, unfortunately for me, Button was the most accurate and was the only one that didn't have a major miss.
double post

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Old
06-13-2012, 11:20 AM
  #85
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Smif View Post
Let's try a mathematical grade...E=0 and then add up the rest of the numbers and then compare them to someone else. The smaller the number the better. I'm also going to subtract the worst score to help with the averages.


Button's top 15 last year = 35 - 5 = 30
McKeen's = 64 - 24 = 41
ISS = 57 - 18 = 39
Redline = 98 - 27 = 71
Hockey News = 103 - 29 = 74
Cerntral Scouting = 60 - 26 = 34

So, unfortunately for me, Button was the most accurate and was the only one that didn't have a major miss.
not sure how you did your math, but Button missed by 50+ spots on the top 15

SCHEIFELE missed by 9 spots
PUEMPEL missed by 10 spots
PHILLIPS missed by 13 spots
...that alone is 32, and he only got #1 and #10 correct, the rest were 1-4 spots on average

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06-13-2012, 11:23 AM
  #86
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Button always tries to hit a home run with his ranking's instead he strikes out falls on his ass and gets laughed at by everyone as he makes it back to the dugout.

He mostly puts his rankings out for comedic value.

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06-13-2012, 11:32 AM
  #87
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mydnyte View Post
not sure how you did your math, but Button missed by 50+ spots on the top 15

SCHEIFELE missed by 9 spots
PUEMPEL missed by 10 spots
PHILLIPS missed by 13 spots
...that alone is 32, and he only got #1 and #10 correct, the rest were 1-4 spots on average
For Button's list I just went with what robdicks' had (the post I quoted). Is that not Button's list? The other ones I did myself so I know they're accurate.

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06-13-2012, 11:39 AM
  #88
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Smif View Post
For Button's list I just went with what robdicks' had (the post I quoted). Is that not Button's list? The other ones I did myself so I know they're accurate.
Looks like he has McKenzie's list there, not Buttons. Mydnyte posted Button's 2011 list.

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06-13-2012, 11:42 AM
  #89
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controversial rankings like this are great for majore brands/outlets

gets people checking and talking about them. its almost better for TSN that he's so off from the norm.

IMO you look at ISS and Central Scouting

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06-13-2012, 11:52 AM
  #90
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EazyB97 View Post
Looks like he has McKenzie's list there, not Buttons. Mydnyte posted Button's 2011 list.
Oops...helps to read I guess. My bad. Looks like McKenzie is the man like usual.

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Old
06-13-2012, 12:00 PM
  #91
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Most personal scouting lists probably do look a lot like Button's. Watch the behind the draft series that teams have, sometimes you get a glimpse of certain scouting lists. Or read the book Future Greats and Heart Breaks, I believe it touches on where certain players were ranked vs. the 'consensus' of the scouting agencies.

It's from personal viewings and perspectives and everyone is different. Players are generally all over the map for many different reasons. You get your general consensus at the top from time to time (depending on the type of draft it is), but then I think most here would be surprised at where some players rank on teams personal lists.

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06-13-2012, 12:09 PM
  #92
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Smif View Post
Let's try a mathematical grade...E=0 and then add up the rest of the numbers and then compare them to someone else. The smaller the number the better. I'm also going to subtract the worst score to help with the averages.

Button's top 15 last year = 35 - 5 = 30
McKeen's = 64 - 24 = 41
ISS = 57 - 18 = 39
Redline = 98 - 27 = 71
Hockey News = 103 - 29 = 74
Cerntral Scouting = 60 - 26 = 34

So, unfortunately for me, Button was the most accurate and was the only one that didn't have a major miss.
Accurate/Revised Top 15 for 2011:

McKenzie = 35 - 5 = 30
McKeen's = 64 - 24 = 41
ISS = 57 - 18 = 39
Redline = 98 - 27 = 71
Hockey News = 103 - 29 = 74
Central Scouting = 60 - 26 = 34
Button = 60 - 13 = 47

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Old
06-13-2012, 12:12 PM
  #93
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He has two goalies in the top 15, something that has never worked out in recent memory. i.e. without at least one of them being a bust.

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06-13-2012, 12:40 PM
  #94
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Imagine the draft went by Button's rankings, Capitals could get Murray and Grigs.

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06-13-2012, 01:15 PM
  #95
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Here is our results from last year, as we combined several agencies for the rankings.

If you find any errors I won't be surprised I didn't get paid for this ;-)


Final CSS Avg Rank Combined Rank Player Actual
1 1 1 Nugent-Hopkins, Ryan 1
2 4.8 5 Landeskog, Gabriel 2
3 3.5 3 Huberdeau, Jonathan 3
1 2 2 Larsson, Adam 4
8 8.8 8 Strome, Ryan 5
2 6.8 6 Zibanejad, Mika 6
16 16.5 15 Scheifele, Mark 7
6 4.8 4 Couturier, Sean 8
4 9.8 9 Hamilton, Dougie 9
3 18.5 17 Brodin, Jonas 10
10 14.3 12 Siemens, Duncan 11
9 7 7 Murphy, Ryan 12
7 13.8 11 Baertschi, Sven 13
13 19.5 19 Oleksiak, Jamieson 14
23 24.8 25 Miller, Jonathan 15
4 16 14 Armia, Joel 16
5 12.5 10 Beaulieu, Nathan 17
14 16.5 16 McNeill, Mark 18
6 14.8 13 Klefbom, Oscar 19
25 30 30 Murphy, Connor 20
35 28.7 28 Noesen, Stefan 21
22 27.7 27 Biggs, Tyler 22
12 24 24 Morrow, Joseph 23
28 23.3 22 Puempel, Matthew 24
53 35.3 36 Percy, Stuart 25
27 55.3 51 Danault, Phillip 26
11 23.3 23 Namestnikov, Vladislav 27
15 30.3 32 Phillips, Zack 28
21 23 21 Jensen, Nicklas 29
30 43.7 40 Rakell, Rickard 30
38 46.5 41 Musil, David 31
17 25 26 Rattie, Ty 32
32 20.5 20 Grimaldi, Rocco 33
24 29.7 29 Mayfield, Scott 34
20 31 33 Jurco, Tomas 35
45 55 49 Clendening, Adam 36
18 19.3 18 Jenner, Boone 37
29 35 35 Khokhlachev, Alexander 40
5 32.7 34 Jaskin, Dmitri 41
12 37.5 38 Rask, Victor 42
19 30.3 31 Saad, Brandon 43
36 36.3 37 Ritchie, Brett 44
33 49 44 Edmundson, Joel 46
43 49 43 Nieto, Matthew 47
60 50.3 46 Ouellet, Xavier 48
54 49.7 45 Sproul, Ryan 55
46 42.7 39 Lessio, Lucas 56
40 56 52 Wotherspoon, Tyler 57
34 46.7 42 Lucia, Mario 60
26 58 54 Prince, Shane 61
41 66.7 56 Trocheck, Vincent 64
58 64.3 55 Lowry, Adam 67
42 68.5 58 Shaw, Logan 76
37 52 47 Catenacci, Daniel 77
56 67 57 Shore, Nicholas 82
48 103 67 Welinski, Andy 83
72 82 63 Quine, Alan 85
55 55.3 50 Russo, Robbie 95
52 115.3 68 Reilly, Mike 98
51 71 59 Labate, Joseph 101
59 54 48 St. Croix, Michael 106
49 75 61 Noebels, Marcel 118
31 57.3 53 Ambroz, Seth 128
50 79.5 62 Kuraly, Sean 133
57 83.5 64 Scarlett, Reece 159
47 93.5 66 Tesink, Ryan 162
39 71.5 60 Bell, Myles
44 92 65 Oke, Scott

Final CSS Avg Rank Combined Rank Player Actual
1 1 1 Nugent-Hopkins, Ryan 1
1 2 2 Larsson, Adam 4
3 3.5 3 Huberdeau, Jonathan 3
6 4.8 4 Couturier, Sean 8
2 4.8 5 Landeskog, Gabriel 2
2 6.8 6 Zibanejad, Mika 6
9 7 7 Murphy, Ryan 12
8 8.8 8 Strome, Ryan 5
4 9.8 9 Hamilton, Dougie 9
5 12.5 10 Beaulieu, Nathan 17
7 13.8 11 Baertschi, Sven 13
10 14.3 12 Siemens, Duncan 11
6 14.8 13 Klefbom, Oscar 19
4 16 14 Armia, Joel 16
16 16.5 15 Scheifele, Mark 7
14 16.5 16 McNeill, Mark 18
3 18.5 17 Brodin, Jonas 10
18 19.3 18 Jenner, Boone 37
13 19.5 19 Oleksiak, Jamieson 14
32 20.5 20 Grimaldi, Rocco 33
21 23 21 Jensen, Nicklas 29
28 23.3 22 Puempel, Matthew 24
11 23.3 23 Namestnikov, Vladislav 27
12 24 24 Morrow, Joseph 23
23 24.8 25 Miller, Jonathan 15
17 25 26 Rattie, Ty 32
22 27.7 27 Biggs, Tyler 22
35 28.7 28 Noesen, Stefan 21
24 29.7 29 Mayfield, Scott 34
25 30 30 Murphy, Connor 20
19 30.3 31 Saad, Brandon 43
15 30.3 32 Phillips, Zack 28
20 31 33 Jurco, Tomas 35
5 32.7 34 Jaskin, Dmitri 41
29 35 35 Khokhlachev, Alexander 40
53 35.3 36 Percy, Stuart 25
36 36.3 37 Ritchie, Brett 44
12 37.5 38 Rask, Victor 42
46 42.7 39 Lessio, Lucas 56
30 43.7 40 Rakell, Rickard 30
38 46.5 41 Musil, David 31
34 46.7 42 Lucia, Mario 60
43 49 43 Nieto, Matthew 47
33 49 44 Edmundson, Joel 46
54 49.7 45 Sproul, Ryan 55
60 50.3 46 Ouellet, Xavier 48
37 52 47 Catenacci, Daniel 77
59 54 48 St. Croix, Michael 106
45 55 49 Clendening, Adam 36
55 55.3 50 Russo, Robbie 95
27 55.3 51 Danault, Phillip 26
40 56 52 Wotherspoon, Tyler 57
31 57.3 53 Ambroz, Seth 128
26 58 54 Prince, Shane 61
58 64.3 55 Lowry, Adam 67
41 66.7 56 Trocheck, Vincent 64
56 67 57 Shore, Nicholas 82
42 68.5 58 Shaw, Logan 76
51 71 59 Labate, Joseph 101
39 71.5 60 Bell, Myles
49 75 61 Noebels, Marcel 118
50 79.5 62 Kuraly, Sean 133
72 82 63 Quine, Alan 85
57 83.5 64 Scarlett, Reece 159
44 92 65 Oke, Scott
47 93.5 66 Tesink, Ryan 162
48 103 67 Welinski, Andy 83
52 115.3 68 Reilly, Mike 98

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06-13-2012, 02:11 PM
  #96
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Originally Posted by Hotlanta View Post
Imagine the draft went by Button's rankings, Capitals could get Murray and Grigs.
Well who thought Hamilton & Couturier were going to drop like they did last year?

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06-13-2012, 02:16 PM
  #97
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Quote:
Originally Posted by birddog View Post
Well who thought Hamilton & Couturier were going to drop like they did last year?
or fowler

i still think button is out to lunch and probably on purpose for ratings

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06-18-2012, 10:27 PM
  #98
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Looks like McKenzie's 10 NHL scouts agree with Button that expectations for Grigerenko are dropping fast.

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