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CBJ-PHI (Rick Nash rumors and proposed deals; update: traded to NYR, July 23)

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Old
06-30-2012, 09:26 PM
  #776
Haute Couturier
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Stizzle View Post
I just don't want Rick Nash. Stay the course... But, I think deep down we all know this is Holmer helping Howson drive up the price on the Rangers. If it's anything else, I'd be shocked.
Why do you believe that? Holmgren is scared of being shut out in free agency. With the exception of Briere every major piece he has added has been through a trade.

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06-30-2012, 09:28 PM
  #777
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Originally Posted by toughfighter83 View Post
it's a pipe dream that you think a goalie will give you a cup, it doesnt work that way, you cant put pressure bryz to win it, if the team cant score goals or play defense, it will never happen, it's a team game, you have to upgrade, you cant downgrade or else there will be no playoffs or a cup next year. they tried that in 06-07 it backfired.



why dont you just wave a white flag then? better player nash, or a losing season, you want losing season then keep complaining on why this team will never win while waiting for unproven players to develop while the team is losing.
A. I never said that

B. just to clarify, im saying that our defense is good enough to win if bryz doesnt suck...we dont need to panic and make a desperation move

C. we can score goals without nash

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06-30-2012, 09:30 PM
  #778
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Originally Posted by Canteen Boy View Post
Anyone think Homer is looking to make a splash because the rumors of Parise going to the Pens? Kind of like a counter move? I hope he's not that stupid.
Like I said last week, we should push to acquire Ryan ASAP for the right price (no Couturier, no Giroux, no Schenn) just so Pittsburgh doesn't dictate the availability and price of players.

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06-30-2012, 09:30 PM
  #779
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Schenn + Couturier? Howsen's hitting something strong.

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Old
06-30-2012, 09:36 PM
  #780
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Well kudos to you for answering the question, but I have a bone to pick with a lot of these [because of injuries].
Correlation does not equal causation. That goes for specific players changing teams as well as changing health situations. I am just answering your query to the best of my ability. I have listed players who defied statistical aging curves after changing teams. In the past, certain players have defied statistical aging curves while changing teams and/or changing reported health status, or while doing none of these things. But from these facts alone, we cannot say why they defied aging curves.

But in general, injury and health are gigantic reasons that players decline over time. You can't put Nash in his decline phase and then discard health/injury as a valid reason that players bounce back or decline. And as I said, there is more to these jumps than just time missed.

Also it's extremely difficult / impossible to find veteran players without any injuries to speak of and there's no way for us to know how much these injuries effected each player, especially in comparison to other players. The best you can do is look at PPG in combination with points, which also supports my case for nominating these players, as I said. PPG shows genuinely improved production for these players.


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Selanne had a bad knee. Colorado certainly didn't lack talent. The knee was most likely the biggest reason for his flop in Colorado and resurgance the following year.
Selanne's points decline began far before he ever arrived in Colorado (although that was rock bottom).

Selanne averaged 1.43 PPG in his age 28 season. He declined through his age 33 season.

His age 31-33 seasons were the worst three years of PPG decline, where he averaged .62 PPG in San Jose and Colorado while only missing 4 games.

In the last 6 years (age 35-41 seasons) covering his second tour in Anaheim, Selanne has bounced back with a .84 PPG clip while missing 112 games due to semi-retirement, recuperation and injury. This is even more remarkable given his age.


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Mogilny was plagued with injuries for three straight seasons.
When Mogilny was healthy enough to get on the ice, he averaged .82 PPG in his final 2+ seasons with Vancouver (age 28-30). He was a PPG player in his next 3 seasons with NJ and Toronto. He still had nagging injuries during this time, missing 31 games.


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Originally Posted by Libertine View Post
Murray was also injured.
There's more to it than that.

In his entire LAK career, Murray played 304 games during taking up his 25-28 age seasons and averaged .69 PPG while missing 43 games. In his two best seasons as a King he played a combined 159 games and scored 122 points (.77 PPG; age 25 and 27). According to the aging curve alone, his age 29+ seasons in Boston should have been a worse part of his career.

But in his Boston career (age 29-35), Murray bettered on all of that and scored 340 points in 422 games (.81 PPG) while still missing 62 games with injury. In his two best seasons in Boston, Murray scored 152 points in 155 games (age 29 and 30).

Murray's career looks like an almost perfect aging curve save for a large boost when he arrived in Boston.


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Cammalleri was injured during his final season in LA. The year before he was healthy and had 80 points in 81 games. In Calgary he had 82 in in 81 games.
I would argue that his full year in Calgary was still his finest season, but Cammalleri has never sustained a peak level of play for whatever reason, so I admit that is a bad example.


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Originally Posted by Libertine View Post
Thornton had 101 points in 03 w/ Boston, had a down year the following year, and then was off to a 1.43 ppg pace in Boston right before the trade. He finished the season with 1.58 ppg in San Jose.
Thornton saw a significant boost when moving to San Jose right smack in the middle of his prime.

207 points in his last 177 games as a Bruin (1.17 PPG; age 23-26) vs 302 points in his first 222 games as a Shark (1.36 PPG; age 26-28).


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Originally Posted by Libertine View Post
You are including Gaborik's developing years in his Minnesota totals while NYR only has had him during his prime. Gaborik's last 2 years in Minnesota: 1.08 ppg, 1.35 ppg (in 17 games). His first year in NYR was 1.13 ppg. He had a marginal improvement from his last 'full' season in Minnesota and has been under a ppg since.
He's still improved his overall point production in his expected late prime / early decline while moving away from arguably the most defensive-oriented team structure in the NHL. He put up two of his best seasons on a new team when the aging curve suggests he should have been falling.


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Originally Posted by Libertine View Post
Most of these did not improve solely because they switched teams, had new linemates, system. Most of them also didn't see their point totals decrease for three seasons straight that wasn't explained by injured. Most of those who did see their totals increase were not able to sustain it either.
I'm not claiming to know why the statistical performance of these players improved after changing teams. I only know that it did, and that they at least partially satisfy your question.

But I think the fact that many of them did not sustain their PPG increases could actually point to the team factor playing a role. Many of these were declining/late prime players who may have gotten a statistical boost from a "change of scenery" while not actually improving their skills.

For instance, if you see something like pic related, I think that still strongly suggests or supports the idea, even though the player continued to decline.




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Originally Posted by Libertine View Post
Nash could certainly have a better year. I'm not saying he will never hit 70+ again, but is he going to produce at that level on a regular basis to say he was worth the $7.8M a year for the next 6 years plus the assets required to obtain him? That's unlikely.
I'm not a proponent of a paying anything close to the asking price for Nash. But a player can improve his PPG after his expected peak age

I think "expected peak" is also an important term to keep in mind. Not every player's actual peak matches their expected peak, nor can we say that their statistical peak necessary matches their physical peak.

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Old
06-30-2012, 09:36 PM
  #781
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Originally Posted by sobrien View Post
Like I said last week, we should push to acquire Ryan ASAP for the right price (no Couturier, no Giroux, no Schenn) just so Pittsburgh doesn't dictate the availability and price of players.
Easier said that done. Aren't they asking for Schenn and Couturier?

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Old
06-30-2012, 09:40 PM
  #782
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If Homer really does trade Schenn or Couturier for anyone then I give up, he'd basically undo all the good he did last year...

The team is young, we shouldn't be gearing up prematurely for a cup run... just let our players develop, if we are hot next year make a move at the trade deadline, we certainly don't need a superstar winger going into the season.

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06-30-2012, 09:49 PM
  #783
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trading for Nash would leave us near post Lindros trade levels of talent depletion

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Old
06-30-2012, 09:51 PM
  #784
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Libertine View Post
Easier said that done. Aren't they asking for Schenn and Couturier?
I think that's Howson for Nash. Though I expect Murray to be asking for a lot for Ryan as well. The market for forwards will only become more volatile once Parise is signed, and especially if it's Pittsburgh who gets him. Teams in the East (TOR, NY, BUF, BOS, PHI) will scramble to acquire an elite winger...unfortunately.

Perhaps Laughton, Voracek, and a mid-round pick for Ryan?

edit: I don't expect us to be big players for Parise, I'd like us to go full boar in an attempt to get Doan. Won't be as big of a splash, but he'll certainly help.

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Old
06-30-2012, 09:53 PM
  #785
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Originally Posted by sobrien View Post
I think that's Howson for Nash. Though I expect Murray to be asking for a lot for Ryan as well. The market for forwards will only become more volatile once Parise is signed, and especially if it's Pittsburgh who gets him. Teams in the East (TOR, NY, BUF, BOS, PHI) will scramble to acquire an elite winger...unfortunately.

Perhaps Laughton, Voracek, and a mid-round pick for Ryan?
I remember reading a week ago that they were also asking for one of them. I don't see Ryan coming much cheaper (if the Ducks have brains) because he is a comparable player at a cheaper cap hit.

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06-30-2012, 09:59 PM
  #786
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I remember reading a week ago that they were also asking for one of them. I don't see Ryan coming much cheaper (if the Ducks have brains) because he is a comparable player at a cheaper cap hit.
You're absolutely right, but they can't expect him to start enjoying his time in Anaheim again. And they can't employ a cancer in their locker room, especially with young players coming up. Laughton, Read/Simmonds/Voracek, and a pick is still a very solid haul for an unhappy, albeit elite, scorer.

The public attitudes of Schultz and Ryan (and privately Getzlaf in my opinion bearing 0 proof) could derail that franchise for years. They should get everything they can out of them. Already failed with Schultz.

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06-30-2012, 10:03 PM
  #787
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I can't wait for all of the pieces around the league to start to fall into place. I can't take it any more. Just want to see the final results!

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Old
06-30-2012, 10:05 PM
  #788
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Originally Posted by sg12lw View Post
A. I never said that

B. just to clarify, im saying that our defense is good enough to win if bryz doesnt suck...we dont need to panic and make a desperation move

C. we can score goals without nash
you cant stand pat and wait for other teams to get better or else you looking at the flyers going to the bottom. the flyers have to keep up with the teams that get better to match their talent.

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06-30-2012, 10:07 PM
  #789
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If the Flyers don't sign a big FA, the asking price for Nash and Ryan will go down. Some managers think they hold all the cards but they really hold are an unhappy player and delusions they can receive more than a player is worth.

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Old
06-30-2012, 10:07 PM
  #790
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Originally Posted by toughfighter83 View Post
you cant stand pat and wait for other teams to get better or else you looking at the flyers going to the bottom. the flyers have to keep up with the teams that get better to match their talent.
It'll take some teams several years to get where the Flyers are currently. We shouldn't see the bottom for a loooong time.

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Old
06-30-2012, 10:08 PM
  #791
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Originally Posted by King Fish View Post
Just heard Columbus GM is playing extreme hardball, asking for Coutier and Brayden Schenn!

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Old
06-30-2012, 10:12 PM
  #792
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If we could get Briere to waive his NMC, how does the value of this trade look?

To Buffalo:
Danny Briere

To Philly:
Bobby Ryan

To Anaheim:
Derek Roy
Andrej Meszaros
Philly 1st Round 2013

Edit: getting more teams involved may be helpful in filling everyones needs

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Old
06-30-2012, 10:12 PM
  #793
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NHL.com reporting Flyers and CBJ in serious talks about trading for Nash, said it will cost Schenn or Couts, please don't do this Homer, why not go after Ryan? Suter? Parise? I have a bad feeling something stupid is going to happen by tomorrow

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06-30-2012, 10:16 PM
  #794
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Originally Posted by RespectTheMajor View Post
NHL.com reporting Flyers and CBJ in serious talks about trading for Nash, said it will cost Schenn or Couts, please don't do this Homer, why not go after Ryan? Suter? Parise? I have a bad feeling something stupid is going to happen by tomorrow

They should definitely be off the table for either one of Nash or Ryan, but especially for Nash. Those guys along with Giroux and possible Simmonds and Voracek (depending on if they are involved in a trade) are the core of our offense going forward.

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06-30-2012, 10:21 PM
  #795
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I'm fearing the worst.

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06-30-2012, 10:26 PM
  #796
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What's the best offer we can put together without loosing Couturier or the Schenns?


Voracek, Read, Meszaros, and a 1st?

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Old
06-30-2012, 10:26 PM
  #797
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It better not be Couturier. That's all I care about. Schenns brother is here now so we want to see them play together, but I'd trading Brayden means keeping couts, then by all means...

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Old
06-30-2012, 10:30 PM
  #798
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What's the best offer we can put together without loosing Couturier or the Schenns?


Voracek, Read, Meszaros, and a 1st?
I'd venture to say that Laughton may be a good chip to throw in as well. He's probably more valuable as a trade asset to us than in our system because what are the chances that he develops into a better player than G, Schenn or Couturier? Pretty low IMO.

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Old
06-30-2012, 10:32 PM
  #799
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Quote:
Originally Posted by King Fish View Post
Just heard Columbus GM is playing extreme hardball, asking for Coutier and Brayden Schenn!
Good (even though I doubt that's true).

Demanding both makes it much more likely that they get neither and basically assures that talks have already broken off again.

Edit: If there are actually any legit sources behind this, I suspect that they could be on CBJ's behalf, trying to jack up the price in anticipation of signings tomorrow

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06-30-2012, 10:35 PM
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Good (even though I doubt that's true).

Demanding both makes it much more likely that they get neither.
And if one of them is involved in a trade, id rather it be for Ryan than Nash. He's younger, on a better contract and has similar offensive upside.

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