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Old
06-19-2012, 09:09 PM
  #676
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jeh82 View Post
That was in response to a series of posters who asked for:

- a 2nd line center
- a top-6 winger
- a top-4 defenseman

(all in their mid-20s).

You cannot construct a return that matches those demands without adding assets from Anaheim.

thus:

- Schenn
- JVR / Voracek
- Mez
- 1st (20th)

for

- Ryan
- 6th

Again.

Schenn >= 6th

JVR, Mez, 1st =< Ryan.

It seemed like a decent deal to me. I actually think it is a modest overpayment, which is why I suggested a middling prospect from Anaheim, but I wouldn't hold the deal up on that point.
Basically, I imagine most Ducks fans see Mez as negative value even, basically don't want him, and for good reason. But as for getting three players, I imagine that had more to do with getting three potential guys that fit that bill, or three guys who are capped at that status, not guys like Schenn and JVR who already fit the bill of second line center and top-6 winger, but can grow.

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06-19-2012, 09:16 PM
  #677
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bobby Ryan Getzlaf View Post
Basically, I imagine most Ducks fans see Mez as negative value even, basically don't want him, and for good reason. But as for getting three players, I imagine that had more to do with getting three potential guys that fit that bill, or three guys who are capped at that status, not guys like Schenn and JVR who already fit the bill of second line center and top-6 winger, but can grow.
Ok, well, your absurd analysis of Mezsaros aside (he's a 26 year-old #4 defenseman (at worst)--how can he hold negative value), wouldn't that make the deal better rather than worse for Anaheim? In other words, Schenn is your 2C next year, but could easily develop into a 1B-type; JVR is probably a second-line winger, but could easily develop and hit Ryan's career average to date.

I just don't get it. I'm usually pretty decent at gauging value.

I keep going back to that proposal, and I cant' for the life of me figure out how it can be labeled as troll-worthy.

EDIT:

I figure out the problem.

I began with the premise that Schenn > 6th overall--and thus was a positive switch for the Ducks.

That, apparently, is not true, because...

Quote:
Originally Posted by DuckJet View Post
Not sure I would. Schenn hasn't really established himself yet. I don't like the risk of that pick becoming a better player than the guy I traded him for
(This, mind you, is all with the premise that what Anaheim really needs is a young, potentially elite 2C to slot behind Getzlaf).

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06-19-2012, 09:42 PM
  #678
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jeh82 View Post
Ok, well, your absurd analysis of Mezsaros aside (he's a 26 year-old #4 defenseman (at worst)--how can he hold negative value), wouldn't that make the deal better rather than worse for Anaheim? In other words, Schenn is your 2C next year, but could easily develop into a 1B-type; JVR is probably a second-line winger, but could easily develop and hit Ryan's career average to date.

I just don't get it. I'm usually pretty decent at gauging value.

I keep going back to that proposal, and I cant' for the life of me figure out how it can be labeled as troll-worthy.

EDIT:

I figure out the problem.

I began with the premise that Schenn > 6th overall--and thus was a positive switch for the Ducks.

That, apparently, is not true, because...



(This, mind you, is all with the premise that what Anaheim really needs is a young, potentially elite 2C to slot behind Getzlaf).
That was just one fan. Any Ducks fan would trade that pick for Schenn, I'm sure.

As for Meszaros, it's not absurd at all. He makes a lot of money over the next two years and doesn't add much to our defense. Maybe not negative, but basically, we don't want him, so adding him in basically adds nothing to your proposal in the eyes of Ducks fans.

Like I've said, your problem was including 6th overall. Instead of looking at Schenn and 6th being comparables, look at 20th+Mez for 6th being one side of it, which no Ducks fan would do. The other side, Schenn+JVR for Ryan, fits.

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06-19-2012, 09:47 PM
  #679
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bobby Ryan Getzlaf View Post
That was just one fan. Any Ducks fan would trade that pick for Schenn, I'm sure.

As for Meszaros, it's not absurd at all. He makes a lot of money over the next two years and doesn't add much to our defense. Maybe not negative, but basically, we don't want him, so adding him in basically adds nothing to your proposal in the eyes of Ducks fans.

Like I've said, your problem was including 6th overall. Instead of looking at Schenn and 6th being comparables, look at 20th+Mez for 6th being one side of it, which no Ducks fan would do. The other side, Schenn+JVR for Ryan, fits.

Would he not replace Visnovsky? Visnovsky is teetering on the edge of retiring, isn't he?

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06-19-2012, 09:52 PM
  #680
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bobby Ryan Getzlaf View Post
That was just one fan. Any Ducks fan would trade that pick for Schenn, I'm sure.

As for Meszaros, it's not absurd at all. He makes a lot of money over the next two years and doesn't add much to our defense. Maybe not negative, but basically, we don't want him, so adding him in basically adds nothing to your proposal in the eyes of Ducks fans.

Like I've said, your problem was including 6th overall. Instead of looking at Schenn and 6th being comparables, look at 20th+Mez for 6th being one side of it, which no Ducks fan would do. The other side, Schenn+JVR for Ryan, fits.
I'm sure it does, for Anaheim. It doesn't really work for Philadelphia.

Perhaps my fellow Flyers fans can weigh in and let me know if I went wrong on "our" side of the analysis?

Quote:
Originally Posted by CobraAcesS View Post
I think the idea of making an offer by filling ANA's need for a #2C as the main piece and adding a top 6 winger to replace Ryan gives them the option to go after a defender in the draft, makes more sense. Which is what the top of this draft is deepest in.

Just my thought.
Of course, but Schenn + JVR / Voracek is an overpayment for Ryan.

In other words, I fully agree, but I was trying to create a proposal that doesn't screw the team I root for at the same time.

Anatomy of a proposal:

Quote:
Voracek + Schenn for Ryan.
(I can't see the Flyers trading two of their young forwards for Ryan straight up. A logical starting place to close the gap seemed a pick swap--which would allow Anaheim to pick up an admittedly lesser defensive prospect at 20.)

Quote:
Voracek, Schenn, 20th for Ryan, 6th
(That's obviously pretty tough on Anaheim, so I added Mezsaros, a 26 year old #4D who can presumably slot in Anaheim's line-up until "Prospect Picked at #20" is ready.)

Thus:
Quote:
Voracek, Schenn, Mezsaros, 20th for Ryan, 6th.
(I've since been informed that Mezsaros actually has no / negative value to Anahein--which would seem to contract the request for a top-4 defenseman made earlier in the thread--and that at least some Anaheim fans would prefer the 6th to Schenn.

Thus, the proposal fails to meet Anaheim's needs, even while I maintain that, in the abstract, it is decent value.

In short, I give up, but depart this thread (I hope) on amicable terms.


Last edited by Jack de la Hoya: 06-19-2012 at 10:00 PM.
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06-19-2012, 09:54 PM
  #681
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bobby Ryan Getzlaf View Post
That was just one fan. Any Ducks fan would trade that pick for Schenn, I'm sure.

As for Meszaros, it's not absurd at all. He makes a lot of money over the next two years and doesn't add much to our defense. Maybe not negative, but basically, we don't want him, so adding him in basically adds nothing to your proposal in the eyes of Ducks fans.

Like I've said, your problem was including 6th overall. Instead of looking at Schenn and 6th being comparables, look at 20th+Mez for 6th being one side of it, which no Ducks fan would do. The other side, Schenn+JVR for Ryan, fits.
Doesn't fit for us. Previous offer seems quite fair. Essentially JvR, and Mez for Ryan and Schenn, and the 20th overall for your 6th overall.

I don't see how that's unfair. You get a young LW that all posters are underrating and Flyers fans are overrating, your future 2C (which is a major need, no?), a physical veteran D-Man who can play anywhere 2-6 who loves to jump up in the offense, and a 20th overall pick.


Your baseless dismissal of Meszaros doesn't work or me. Just saying "he gets paid a lot of money, but adds nothing, we don't want him" leaves a lot of questions out there...

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06-19-2012, 09:54 PM
  #682
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bobby Ryan Getzlaf View Post
Schenn+JVR for Ryan, fits.
I certainly wouldnt say that.

Ryan is good, but let's not get ahead of ourselves. That's more than the Richards trade, and Mike Richards definitely had more value than Ryan.

If you want to break it up the way you're doing it, then it would be:

Meszaros + 20th < 6th
Schenn + JVR > Ryan


I'd say the proposed del is pretty fair value. If you want to say that the Ducks cant give up the 6th overall and would rather draft a prospect themselves, that's perfectly fine. But no matter which way you slice up the original proposal, it'll come out to even value.

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06-19-2012, 10:01 PM
  #683
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jeh82 View Post
I'm sure it does, for Anaheim. It doesn't really work for Philadelphia.

Perhaps my fellow Flyers fans can weigh in and let me know if I went wrong on our side of the analysis?



Of course, but Schenn + JVR / Voracek is an overpayment for Ryan.

In other words, I fully agree, but I was trying to create a proposal that doesn't screw the team I root for at the same time.

Anatomy of a proposal:



(I can't see the Flyers trading two of their young forwards for Ryan straight up. A logical starting place to close the gap seemed a pick swap--which would allow Anaheim to pick up an admittedly lesser defensive prospect at 20.)


(That's obviously pretty tough on Anaheim, so I added Mezsaros, a 26 year old #4D who can presumably slot in Anaheim's line-up until "Prospect Picked at #20" is ready.)

Thus:

(I've since been informed that Mezsaros actually has no / negative value to Anahein--which would seem to contract the request for a top-4 defenseman made earlier in the thread--and that at least some Anaheim fans would prefer the 6th to Schenn.

Thus, the proposal fails to meet Anaheim's needs, even while I maintain that, in the abstract, it is decent value.

In short, I give up, but depart this thread (I hope) on amicable terms.
Then that's cool, Anaheim keeps Ryan. Flyers felt they had to deal Richards and their return was in accordance with that. Ducks don't feel they have to trade Ryan whatsoever, they're just putting it out there to see if they can get a home-run package. Remember, the last time Ryan was available, Bob Murray made some outrageous reported proposals, like Ryan for Kessel+. He's not going to do a "fair" deal, he's going to do a deal where the other team overpays.

And as for Meszaros, again, that's just what a fan said, those three pieces. A defenseman doesn't have to be included, and Anaheim would never want Meszaros. He'd be the highest paid defenseman and might end up on the third pairing(you might find that ridiculous, but it's very possible) playing the right side as a left shot. There are tons of defensemen the Ducks would value higher than him.

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06-19-2012, 10:04 PM
  #684
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bobby Ryan Getzlaf View Post
Then that's cool, Anaheim keeps Ryan. Flyers felt they had to deal Richards and their return was in accordance with that. Ducks don't feel they have to trade Ryan whatsoever, they're just putting it out there to see if they can get a home-run package. Remember, the last time Ryan was available, Bob Murray made some outrageous reported proposals, like Ryan for Kessel+. He's not going to do a "fair" deal, he's going to do a deal where the other team overpays.

And as for Meszaros, again, that's just what a fan said, those three pieces. A defenseman doesn't have to be included, and Anaheim would never want Meszaros. He'd be the highest paid defenseman and might end up on the third pairing(you might find that ridiculous, but it's very possible) playing the right side as a left shot. There are tons of defensemen the Ducks would value higher than him.
i'd think Meszaros would be fine with Lydman

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06-19-2012, 10:07 PM
  #685
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Ryan isn't that much better than Voracek or a healthy JVR or a grown up Schenn. Yet some of you are throwing assets at Anaheim like you need your next fix.

Screw Nash. Screw Ryan. Weber? We will talk, but temper your expectations.

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06-19-2012, 10:07 PM
  #686
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Krishna View Post
i'd think Meszaros would be fine with Lydman
Oh, it'd be a sweet pairing. But spending $7.75 million on your third pairing isn't exactly a good move for a team on a tight budget. If they could do that, or even think of it, they'd be better off dumping Lydman and offering all that to Suter.

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06-19-2012, 10:25 PM
  #687
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bobby Ryan Getzlaf View Post
Oh, it'd be a sweet pairing. But spending $7.75 million on your third pairing isn't exactly a good move for a team on a tight budget. If they could do that, or even think of it, they'd be better off dumping Lydman and offering all that to Suter.
What about Visnovsky retiring?

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06-19-2012, 10:28 PM
  #688
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris Shafer View Post
Ryan isn't that much better than Voracek or a healthy JVR or a grown up Schenn. Yet some of you are throwing assets at Anaheim like you need your next fix.

Screw Nash. Screw Ryan. Weber? We will talk, but temper your expectations.
JvR has shown nothing outside 10 games in the playoffs 2 years ago. The only thing he has shown is how he can get hurt every 5 weeks. The team performed well without him last year. If you can trade him for someone who is better than him, without giving up too much more, you do it in a heartbeat

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06-19-2012, 10:29 PM
  #689
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris Shafer View Post
Ryan isn't that much better than Voracek or a healthy JVR or a grown up Schenn. Yet some of you are throwing assets at Anaheim like you need your next fix.

Screw Nash. Screw Ryan. Weber? We will talk, but temper your expectations.
Chris, I think it is a bit different to give up assets for Ryan (and a #6 overall pick) than it is for Nash, no?

Assume, for a moment, that Anaheim did accept the deal I proposed (with Voracek)...

FORWARDS
James Van Riemsdyk ($4.250m) / Claude Giroux ($3.750m) / Bobby Ryan ($5.100m)
Scott Hartnell ($4.200m) / Danny Briere ($6.500m) / Wayne Simmonds ($1.750m)
Eric Wellwood ($0.580m) / Sean Couturier ($1.375m) / Matt Read ($0.900m)
Jody Shelley ($1.100m) / Maxime Talbot ($1.750m) / Zac Rinaldo ($0.544m)
Ben Holmstrom ($0.750m) /

DEFENSEMEN
Kimmo Timonen ($6.333m) / Nicklas Grossmann ($3.500m)
Braydon Coburn ($4.500m) / Matt Dumba ($1.375m)
Matt Carle ($4.250m) / Marc-Andre Bourdon ($0.875m)
Andreas Lilja ($0.738m) /

GOALTENDERS
Ilya Bryzgalov ($5.667m)
Sergei Bobrovsky ($1.750m)
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled without the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $70,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $61,536,944; BONUSES: $1,300,000
CAP SPACE (22-man roster): $8,763,056

Now there are some obvious problems there. Wellwood doesn't belong on the 3rd line, for one. Maybe Dumba (a projection at #6) isn't ready.

But there's 8.7 million in cap space. Room enough to make a deal or two to address those concerns.

Mostly, though, it keeps a young core in place. We swap a young winger and a young center for a better young winger and a stud (RHD) prospect.

If that extra cap space is properly spent, I think that puts us in a better position to compete next year without sacrificing the future.


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Old
06-19-2012, 10:45 PM
  #690
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What about Visnovsky retiring?
That one's news to me, and to anyone with the Ducks. He'll likely be back in a top-4 role next year and then gone after that, where hopefully Sami Vatanen will be ready to fill his role.

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06-19-2012, 11:00 PM
  #691
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Originally Posted by Bobby Ryan Getzlaf View Post
That one's news to me, and to anyone with the Ducks. He'll likely be back in a top-4 role next year and then gone after that, where hopefully Sami Vatanen will be ready to fill his role.
I thought he was saying all year that he can't keep his mind on the game since the whole Lokomotiv accident and has been in depression since his friend Demitra died

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06-19-2012, 11:16 PM
  #692
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I thought he was saying all year that he can't keep his mind on the game since the whole Lokomotiv accident and has been in depression since his friend Demitra died
Nope, there's been no talk of him retiring. Actually I do remember that rumor now, but I believe Visnovsky came right out and denied it. Said he wants to be here.

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06-19-2012, 11:16 PM
  #693
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JvR has shown nothing outside 10 games in the playoffs 2 years ago. The only thing he has shown is how he can get hurt every 5 weeks. The team performed well without him last year. If you can trade him for someone who is better than him, without giving up too much more, you do it in a heartbeat
I agree with this. Bobby Ryan is who we hope JVR can become, but Bobby Ryan is the more talented player. I would take Bobby Ryan over JVR every time. And I am a supporter of JVR, just not when it comes to comparing him to Bobby Ryan. Ryan with Giroux has the potential to be better then Ryan and Getzlaf. He could have a monster year with him. Of course that is if we acquire him(I think unlikely as of now).

Also if Murray is looking for some outrageous amount back for Ryan that nobody will give, why does this even become news? Every player is available for an over payment.

Also would you give as much as a team did for Richards as you would for Ryan? I think Anaheim will be disappointed with the return. I wouldn't trade Schenn, Simmonds and a 2nd for Ryan. Centers are harder to come by for teams, especially good two way players like Richards was. Ryan is primarily a winger.


Last edited by Prongo: 06-19-2012 at 11:27 PM.
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06-19-2012, 11:17 PM
  #694
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Originally Posted by Bobby Ryan Getzlaf View Post
Nope, there's been no talk of him retiring. Actually I do remember that rumor now, but I believe Visnovsky came right out and denied it. Said he wants to be here.
Gotcha

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06-19-2012, 11:59 PM
  #695
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Sorry if it's a repost, from Meltzer...

At the recent NHL Scouting Combine the Flyers reportedly met with several players who are certain to be drafted long before the team's current 20th slot comes up. It's been said off-the-record that the Flyers told at least two of the top rated North American defensemen and one of the top European forwards at the Compound they are considering ways to move up on Friday.

http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog/Bill-...nials/45/45032
Two North American defensemen: Matthew Dumba and Cody Ceci

European forward: Filip Forsberg. That's immediately what popped into my mind. Come on, people, it's destiny. Hopefully the Flyers would hold on to this Forsberg, too. How would the Flyers get Forsberg? By trading with Brian Burke for the 5th overall pick, perhaps? It's always been reported in the past that Burke likes JVR, and with all the rumblings about him, I could see that deal coming out of nowhere. Sorry, the whole thing just got my mind racing.

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06-20-2012, 12:03 AM
  #696
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Originally Posted by Amateur Hour View Post
Two North American defensemen: Matthew Dumba and Cody Ceci

European forward: Filip Forsberg. That's immediately what popped into my mind. Come on, people, it's destiny. Hopefully the Flyers would hold on to this Forsberg, too. How would the Flyers get Forsberg? By trading with Brian Burke for the 5th overall pick, perhaps? It's always been reported in the past that Burke likes JVR, and with all the rumblings about him, I could see that deal coming out of nowhere. Sorry, the whole thing just got my mind racing.
I appreciate the ambition, but I sort of doubt it is Forsberg.

I believe he'll go 4. One of Columbus, Montreal (if Gachenyuk is gone), or the Islanders will take him. I also believe that the only way Toronto considers dealing #5 is if the top four forwards (Yakupov, Galchenyuk, Forsberg, and Grigorenko, in some order) are all gone.

The European could pretty easily be TT, Faksa, or Girgensons

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06-20-2012, 12:21 AM
  #697
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Originally Posted by jeh82 View Post
I appreciate the ambition, but I sort of doubt it is Forsberg.

I believe he'll go 4. One of Columbus, Montreal (if Gachenyuk is gone), or the Islanders will take him. I also believe that the only way Toronto considers dealing #5 is if the top four forwards (Yakupov, Galchenyuk, Forsberg, and Grigorenko, in some order) are all gone.

The European could pretty easily be TT, Faksa, or Girgensons
I guess we'll just have to wait and see on Friday. Are Faksa and Girgensons even considered European skaters in this draft? Wouldn't they fall under North American skaters because they're playing in North American leagues? At least I always thought that's how it worked.

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06-20-2012, 12:23 AM
  #698
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I guess we'll just have to wait and see on Friday. Are Faksa and Girgensons even considered European skaters in this draft? Wouldn't they fall under North American skaters because they're playing in North American leagues? At least I always thought that's how it worked.
According to NHL Central Scouting, you're absolutely right.

But I'm not certain the guys at Hockey Buzz are quite that precise in their language.

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06-20-2012, 12:33 AM
  #699
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This scared the **** out of me

Thank god it's fake

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06-20-2012, 12:36 AM
  #700
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This scared the **** out of me

Thank god it's fake
Actually--if it only cost JVR, Couturier and a 1st, and we got back both Weber and C. Smith, I'd count it was a win . Smith's a really nice young player in his own right.

p.s. Despite the fact that you told me it was fake, I must admit to immediately looking up Dreger's twitter...just to make sure


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