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The All Things Parise Thread (Part III)

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Old
06-19-2012, 04:45 PM
  #1001
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Feed Me A Stray Cat View Post
It's kind of funny, because you would think after the Jay Pandolfo's, the Ville Nieminen's, the Fernando Pisani's, and the countless, countless others who have a good 20 game run and then revert back to their normal selves in seasons following, that people would eventually learn not to put stock in playoff performances like that.

Can someone come up with an example of a player, who was established as nothing more than a career checking line guy or grinder, who actually sustained the increase in offensive production for subsequent seasons?
Not off the top of my head. And you can add a guy like Joel Ward to that list..

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06-19-2012, 04:50 PM
  #1002
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Originally Posted by Feed Me A Stray Cat View Post
People actually think Salvador, at 36, has improved offensively?

And Salvador did not "rise to the occasion." He got very lucky.
most of his goals were lucky, but guy had some great D zone play and a few amazing assists.

That being said He will not have as many points in the next two full seasons as he did in the playoffs.

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06-19-2012, 04:50 PM
  #1003
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Originally Posted by manilaNJ View Post
If I'm remember correctly, Sal & Zid had the most minutes out of all the defensemen.
Greene & Fayne were used more for being the shut down pair in the defensive zone.
Volch was pretty bad all around during the playoffs, save for a few games here and there.
Harrold got the 2nd least amount of minutes (I'm pretty sure, can't check right now) after Volch.
Larsson... well, obviously.

No one's expecting him to gather up points at this current pace. But I definitely wouldn't be surprised if there were an offensive uptick in his game next season. Depending upon where he ends up that is. Obviously not on another defensive minded team.

That being said, I'll stop threadjacking this with non-Parise stuff.
Salvador got like 10% more ice time than Greene and Fayne. And no PP time. Doesn't come close to making up the difference.

Harrold averaged 15min/game and sat for like 7 games.

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06-19-2012, 04:52 PM
  #1004
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Originally Posted by Feed Me A Stray Cat View Post
Moreover, if it's the system, why didn't we see large increases in the statistics of the other defensemen?
Because Greene and Fayne spent all their time in the defensive zone, and because Harrold and Volchenkov only ever wind up their lackluster and inaccurate slapshots.

It's not just the system, it's Salvador and the system. If it was just luck, wouldn't we see some sort of increase due to chance in any of the other pairings? It was ONLY ever Salvador. Salvador was apparently the only defenseman to settle into the role of calmly lofting pucks towards the net, and it worked for him. It worked in a large part due to chance, but it WORKED. It's not sustainable production, but it was production, and it was Salvador's. What grinds people's gears is that they have this idea that "statistical anomaly" is akin to Salvador not EARNING those points.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Feed Me A Stray Cat View Post
I will bet a considerable sum of money that Salvador won't score 20 points next season.
So you realize we're agreeing, right? I'm simply trying to point out that even production due to random chance can still have a human element to it. People turn their nose up at stats because they believe it takes the spirit out of the game, and in a sense it does, but hopefully they can learn to understand stats as simply part of the narrative.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Feed Me A Stray Cat View Post
Can someone come up with an example of a player, who was established as nothing more than a career checking line guy or grinder, who actually sustained the increase in offensive production for subsequent seasons?
Does Claude Lemieux count? Sean Bergenheim, in the playoffs, has outplayed his regular seasons two years in a row. It's a small sample size, yes. We'll have to wait and see what happens this season I guess.

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06-19-2012, 04:57 PM
  #1005
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Feed Me A Stray Cat View Post
Salvador got like 10% more ice time than Greene and Fayne. And no PP time. Doesn't come close to making up the difference.

Harrold averaged 15min/game and sat for like 7 games.
I didn't say that was the only difference, just adding further onto what I've already said.

Regardless, Eggers is saying exactly what I'm trying to and doing a hell of a lot better of a job at it.

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06-19-2012, 04:58 PM
  #1006
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Eggers View Post
Because Greene and Fayne spent all their time in the defensive zone, and because Harrold and Volchenkov only ever wind up their lackluster and inaccurate slapshots.

It's not just the system, it's Salvador and the system. If it was just luck, wouldn't we see some sort of increase due to chance in any of the other pairings? It was ONLY ever Salvador. Salvador was apparently the only defenseman to settle into the role of calmly lofting pucks towards the net, and it worked for him. It worked in a large part due to chance, but it WORKED. It's not sustainable production, but it was production, and it was Salvador's. What grinds people's gears is that they have this idea that "statistical anomaly" is akin to Salvador not EARNING those points.


So you realize we're agreeing, right? I'm trying to point out that even production due to random chance can still have a human element to it.



Does Claude Lemieux count? Sean Bergenheim, in the playoffs, has outplayed his regular seasons two years in a row. It's a small sample size, yes. We'll have to wait and see what happens this season I guess.
I'm sorry that people interpret it as Salvador "not earning those points." I'm not even sure what that means, or what constitutes the line between earned and unearned points.

Claude Lemieux definitely is not an example. He was a 30 goal scorer from the outset of his career.

And I'm referring to players who actually had a sustained increase in production for the next several seasons, not who strung back to back strong postseasons.

And Volchenkov has an inaccurate slapshot? You realize he gets more shots on goal season to season than Salvador, right?

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Old
06-19-2012, 05:16 PM
  #1007
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Feed Me A Stray Cat View Post
And I'm referring to players who actually had a sustained increase in production for the next several seasons, not who strung back to back strong postseasons.
Ah, I gotcha. Misread that. Once again, we're not really disagreeing here I think. I've stated twice that I don't expect Salvador to come close to replicating production like this over the course of an entire season.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Feed Me A Stray Cat View Post
And Volchenkov has an inaccurate slapshot? You realize he gets more shots on goal season to season than Salvador, right?
Let's think about this for a second. If the shots are hitting the goalie, they're not going in the net off of a deflection. How many quality chances did the Devils get off of rebounds and loose pucks that resulted from a point shot? This is getting into the kind of anecdotal territory that statisticians will hate, but I don't remember it being very many. The Devils didn't have a strong netfront presence throughout the playoffs. Their style was more about skating THROUGH the slot at the right time for a deflection or looking for a rebound. Teams like the Rangers and the Kings were too good about clearing the slot to give up easy rebound chances, which is why Volchenkov hitting the net with his slapshot and not a teammate's stick with a wrist shot wasn't productive.

Also, Harrold doesn't pass much, and on the off chance that pairing was actually in the offensive zone and the puck was on Harrold's stick, it wasn't often getting to Volchenkov for his chance at a shot. So Volch didn't really have a lot of opportunities to let chance go his way.

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06-19-2012, 05:33 PM
  #1008
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Eggers View Post
Ah, I gotcha. Misread that. Once again, we're not really disagreeing here I think. I've stated twice that I don't expect Salvador to come close to replicating production like this over the course of an entire season.



Let's think about this for a second. If the shots are hitting the goalie, they're not going in the net off of a deflection. How many quality chances did the Devils get off of rebounds and loose pucks that resulted from a point shot? This is getting into the kind of anecdotal territory that statisticians will hate, but I don't remember it being very many. The Devils didn't have a strong netfront presence throughout the playoffs. Their style was more about skating THROUGH the slot at the right time for a deflection or looking for a rebound. Teams like the Rangers and the Kings were too good about clearing the slot to give up easy rebound chances, which is why Volchenkov hitting the net with his slapshot and not a teammate's stick with a wrist shot wasn't productive.

Also, Harrold doesn't pass much, and on the off chance that pairing was actually in the offensive zone and the puck was on Harrold's stick, it wasn't often getting to Volchenkov for his chance at a shot. So Volch didn't really have a lot of opportunities to let chance go his way.
Right, I'm just saying that it's a bit erroneous to say Volchenkov and whoever else are inaccurate shooters when they, historically, get as many SOGs as Salvador.

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Old
06-19-2012, 05:43 PM
  #1009
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We can debate whether or not Sal "earned" his points or not, or if it was luck, or the system, or a combination, but the real question is what do we expect from Salvador going forward, and what are his expected salary demands.

Do we expect him to continue at his playoff pace? No, we'd all be happy with 10 points over the entire season. But it's likely that his next contract will be for a performance higher than 10 points. He did awesome this post-season, but what matters more at this point is what can you expect next season?

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