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Trottier’s Fearless 2011-12 Predictions

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09-15-2011, 11:33 PM
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Trottier’s Fearless 2011-12 Predictions

With a record of picking four of the last six Cup Finalists, I immodestly submit to you my 2011-12 NHL predictions. Have at it.

Eastern Conference

1 - Washington Capitals – love the additions of Brouwer and Hamrlik. Likewise, Halpern and Ward add depth of the non-sexy variety – lacking on this team in the past. Vokoun will win a lot of games, October-March. But that has not been the Caps problem in goal in recent years. Rather they have not had goalies capable of stealing games and series come April forward. Vokoun has delivered shiny personal save% numbers and GAA in his career, he is yet to deliver anything in the postseason. Color me skeptical. Plus, while not a believer in franchise karma, Washington has a history of under-performing come the spring. If Backstrom, Ovechkin, Semin and Green (read: their core players) evolve from being great players to winning players (a quote stolen from Guy Boucher, who knows a bit more than HF posters who suggest there is no difference), they should win the Cup. I don’t believe they will. Another hollow regular season domination by a team - and coach - that are over their head once the level of competition increases.

2 - Pittsburgh Penguins – this, of course, assumes that the best player on earth plays the majority of the season. The Pens acquired a solid team defense identity last season which served them greatly in the aftermath of the injuries to Crosby and Malkin. If they can retain that and reap the benefit of the return of two of the top five players in the game, watch out.

3 - Montreal – the sum is greater than the parts with this team. I expect Price to emerge as a Vezina winner this year….and the team’s game and success to be built from goal out. This also assumes that Markov stays healthy. Finally, Martin is an underrated coach. They will not finish third in the conference in points, but they will win a very competitive Northeast division, likely in the last days of the season.

4 - New York Rangers – if Crosby and Malkin do not return healthy and productive, swap NYR and the Pens. Sather has assembled a solid squad, with an intriguing combination of veterans and youth. I wonder if this team is ultimately as quick up front as some other squads, but they are deep, assuming that McDonough and Sauer continue to progress as the second pairing. Tortarella is a good coach and Lundqvist assures that they are in every game. With the addition of Richards, no excuses - it’s time for them to make and advance in the postseason.

5 - Tampa Bay Lightning – on paper, they lose depth, what with Gagne and Bergenheim leaving and kiddies Ashton and perhaps Connelly getting a crack. I’m confident that Boucher will make it work, however. The D corp is solid and Yzerman will go hunting for a vet forward at the deadline. Does Roloson have another quality year in him? I’m confident that this team will win a Cup within the next several years. Not sure it’s this one, however.

6 - Buffalo Sabres – a coach, goaltender and overall team built for the regular season. Love their upgrade on the backline and that will be the backbone of this team, from the net to D out. Should be superb on the transition. However, not enough size and grit up front come the second season.

7 - New Jersey Devils – a bluechip, albeit rookie dman. A coach with great credentials and, now, NHL experience. The return of a 30+ goal scorer. A prideful team of vets who have a lot to answer for (for themselves) coming off of last year’s debacle. Elias and Brodeur will have one more run before their Devil days are up. If the kiddies do not progress, and/or Zajac does not return by January, this team is on the outside of the playoff picture looking in, so this assumes they do. And once in, watch out; that’s just my hunch.

8 - Boston Bruins – a Cup hangover, but this is a very good team, obviously.

9 - New York Islanders – this prediction assumes stability in net, be it Dipietro (never a fan, I’m now rooting for him, based on his persistence and refusal to quit, despite the endless, premature pleas to do so from some of NYI’s ungrateful fans) or the returning Nabokov, who is an NHL question mark at this point. They will go nowhere if Montoya, Poulin (who I like) or any other noobs see any notable time in net. Tavares is ready to emerge as a star and regardless, the guy “gets it” in every sense of the word; you build around his type. The positive impact of Streit’s return, and the minutes he will eat, cannot be over-stated. Ultimately this team lacks experienced depth and is physically vulnerable down the middle (There is no more overrated player in the league than waif/hometown hero Frans Neilsen). But this team is trending in the correct direction. Could easily trade places with NJD if things do not fall into place for the Devils, as noted above.

10 - Toronto Maple Leafs – another team that can easily sneak in the top eight. Burke knows what he is doing. Connelly and Lombardi offer down the middle both impressive speed…and huge physical question marks. Connelly, in particular, always leaves one looking for more. Kessel will score 30+ and Kulemin is a keeper. I like their D Corp…I do not like them in net. That will be their downfall, in my opinion.

11 – Carolina Hurricanes – Erik Staal is one of the best (and, oddly, underappreciated, by some) players in the league, period. Kaberle improves their backline, giving them three quality, big minute blueliners, along with Pitkanen and Gleason. Ward is a top-level netminder. But beyond that, this team lacks depth and is counting a lot on younger players to come through. I don’t see it.

12 – Philadelphia Flyers – when those Richards and Carter deals were made, all one read was “this makes the Flyers really good in the fuuuuture”. Perhaps. But that future is not now. The Flyers went from mean and huge and talented down the middle to…talented, smaller and inexperienced. Bryz is the latest version of the hero goalie on inferior teams who has yet to win an important NHL game. Lavy wears on his teams after a couple of seasons. Hence this surprise prediction.

13 – Ottawa Senators – they could finish higher, and I like where Murray has them headed. But it’s too soon to expect much of anything. Can finish anywhere from 9th to 15th.

14 – Winnipeg Jets – new team, new city, lots of excitement. Same positives: exciting offensive fire power. Same flaws: horrible on the other side of the puck. Same results.

15 – Florida Panthers – massive change does not equal success. They will need to be wearing name tags in camp. They’ll be looking to unload half of this roster by February. Dale Tallon will likely be stepping up to the podium first next June.

Western Conference

1 - Los Angeles Kings – Richards/Kopitar is a great 1-2 pivot and winning teams are built down the middle. Quick/Bernier is impressive in net. Despite the melodrama, Doughty will sign and all will be well on their backline. Modest on the wings depth wise, but there is enough there to win a lot.

2 - Chicago Black Hawks – the hangover is over, this team’s core remains young, proven and exceptionally skilled. Crawford still needs to demonstrate the ability to win come postseason; he’ll get a another chance next spring.

3 - Vancouver Canucks – just have a hunch that team is going to come back very hungry and determined. Say what you will (and Boston ultimately emasculated them in the Finals); this is a very deep, quality team.

4 - San Jose Sharks – like Doug Wilson’s offseason. Speed and skill beats skill alone, especially come the postseason. He realized it and addressed that point. Also like the smaller, secondary acquisitions: Colin White; and yes, even Sheppard and Winchester. If Havlat and Burns stay healthy, he upgraded bigtime at both positions. A perennial Cup contender.

5 - Detroit Red Wings – still a quality team and class organization. Datsyuk and Zetts are a great combination and they have skill/heft on the wing. Babcock is a great coach and you can win with Howard in net. I do think, however, that they will experience a slight dropoff on their blueline this season.

6 – Calgary Flames – a surprise pick, perhaps, but reports of the flames demise is greatly exaggerated, primarily by those suffering from ageism. Sutter is a good coach. Iginla remains productive. They have depth down the middle and the backline, and speed on the wing. An eminently unspectacular team and I may regret this pick. But if they stay healthy, they will make the dance, in my opinion.

7 – St. Louis Blues – it’s time for John Davidson’s team. Time for Backes, Berglund, Oshie, Stewart, Shattenkirk, et al to step up. Arnott and Langenbrunner, though non-sexy vets, are actually attractive as a team’s third line (depth) players and I believe they collectively have a year left in the tank. Halak is a solid goaltender. Several jobs, both on the ice and front office, riding on this season, in all likelihood.

8 – Anaheim Ducks – if Fowler and Sbisca can evolve this year, this team could move up even further in the Conference and do damage. Still not as sold just yet as others on Hiller. But this team’s core is very impressive and I love the speed up front. An exciting Anaheim/LA first round series awaits; bank on the upset.

9 – Columbus Blue Jackets -- Carter (not a fan), Vermette, Brassard could be a superb trio down the middle. Nash is a superb player. Mason has to be able to bounce back, no? Still, weak on the wing and D corp relative to others in this conference.

10 – Nashville Predators – love the coach, like the goaltender, love the franchise’s work ethic; it’s part of their DNA (much like NJD). Do not particularly like the forward group; not much “there” there. A step back this season.

11 – Minnesota Wild – I really like their offseason. Not a Heatley fan, but he will provide goals and he stays healthy; Havlat is always a physical question mark. Expect Koivu to flourish. Setoguchi offers quickness on the wing, as does a now-healthy Bouchard. If Latendresse is healthy, he adds another missing element up front – size and talent. Lots of “ifs”, of course. Backstrom is serviceable. Ultimately, a shallow D corp and overall lack of quality depth will do them in.

12 – Colorado Avalanche -- Duchene is a great player and will likely emerge this season. I love them down the middle….but they are lacking elsewhere. If Johnson takes the next step this season and Varlomov (unfairly ripped on HF) stays healthy, they can snag a playoff spot. But I see their real move in this conference one year away.

13 – Dallas Stars – weak down the middle and a no-name defense, though I expect Goligoski to flourish with a major role. Simply not enough talent relative to the rest of the conference…and ultimately talent wins out.

14 – Phoenix Coyotes – a good coach, a very respectable D corp, and recent playoff experience works to their favor. However, they have a lot of question marks up front and quite possibly the worst goaltending duo in the league.

15 – Edmonton Oiler “Team HF” (where youth is king) have a ton of unproven skill and promise. And holes virtually everywhere. Another lottery trip is ahead.

Cup Finals:
Pittsburgh Penguins (assumes a healthy #87)
San Jose Sharks


Last edited by Trottier: 09-16-2011 at 01:51 AM.
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09-15-2011, 11:38 PM
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I like this. Islanders are winning the cup though

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09-15-2011, 11:39 PM
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A lot of good analysis in that post trotts. I actually agree on your cup prediction should sid be healthy..

And lol. The Oilers truly are the HF fantasy team. ZOMFG look at all those shiny prospects!!!!! Who cares about this year's results, look at our prospect pool!

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09-15-2011, 11:41 PM
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i dont seeing the sharks making it that far without d heater and seto.

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09-15-2011, 11:43 PM
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Trotts, I would actually flip-flop STL and Nash in the west. Just one man's opinion.

Beyond that, I'd have Nash at 6, Ducks at 7 and then a big fight for the 8th seed including stl, flames, etc..

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09-15-2011, 11:47 PM
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As usual, I dont see the Rangers living up to their mandatory hype, and thus dont see them anywhere near the #4 seed, I have a pretty solid record of predicting NYR underperformance and/or underachievement in the face of "expert's" hype.

In fact, with an ill-timed injury or two, I could even see the Rangers missing the playoffs.

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09-15-2011, 11:47 PM
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Do people forget that Richards was out for like half the season with a concussion?

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09-15-2011, 11:48 PM
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Originally Posted by Lord Ned Stark View Post
i dont seeing the sharks making it that far without d heater and seto.
Setoguchi leaving hurts a bit, but Heatly leaving makes them better IMO. He was TERRIBLE in the playoffs. Looked very slow and completely uninspired. I think minus Seto Heater, plus Burns Havlat actually makes them better.

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09-15-2011, 11:48 PM
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Trotts, I would actually flip-flop STL and Nash in the west. Just one man's opinion.

Beyond that, I'd have Nash at 6, Ducks at 7 and then a big fight for the 8th seed including stl, flames, etc..
I was talking to my friend today and i do think perry will drop off but they have such a strong core that getzy/ryan will be able to take the reigns easily. they are a very strong team. Hiller is one of my fav goalies.

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09-15-2011, 11:49 PM
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Plus Teemu is back.

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09-15-2011, 11:50 PM
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Setoguchi leaving hurts a bit, but Heatly leaving makes them better IMO. He was TERRIBLE in the playoffs. Looked very slow and completely uninspired. I think minus Seto Heater, plus Burns Havlat actually makes them better.
thats very true. with the addition of havlat .. they are ridiculously strong. Couture is poised to have another great year.. (to me hes the sidney crosby of the west.. they look so similar lol). Not only that but their veteran presence up front is scary.

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09-15-2011, 11:52 PM
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Quote:
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Setoguchi leaving hurts a bit, but Heatly leaving makes them better IMO. He was TERRIBLE in the playoffs. Looked very slow and completely uninspired. I think minus Seto Heater, plus Burns Havlat actually makes them better.
Heatley is mind-numbingly slow at this point. I'll take havlat all day over that trash. It's an upgrade for SJ. Havlat will be able to keep up with pavelski, thornton, lac, marleau, etc...whomever he's placed with. Then you add in Burns and SJ becomes dangerous.

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09-15-2011, 11:53 PM
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Setoguchi leaving hurts a bit, but Heatly leaving makes them better IMO. He was TERRIBLE in the playoffs. Looked very slow and completely uninspired. I think minus Seto Heater, plus Burns Havlat actually makes them better.
derp doublepost


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09-15-2011, 11:53 PM
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none of my posts in this thread are showing up

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09-15-2011, 11:56 PM
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12 – Philadelphia Flyers – when those Richards and Carter deals were made, all one read was “this makes the Flyers really good in the fuuuuture”. Perhaps. But that future is not now. The Flyers went from mean and huge and talented down the middle to…talented, smaller and inexperienced. Bryz is the latest version of the hero goalie on inferior teams who has yet to win an important NHL game. Lavy wears on his teams after a couple of seasons. Hence this surprise prediction.
surprised on how far out you have philly. i don't think they'll have a problem preventing goals, however there offense is a question mark for me. they still have giroux, briere, hartnell, etc. i would slate them more in the 8-10 range, as i believe they still have a decent team with a coach that has proven he can beat us.

but anyway, as always, excellent analysis trottier!

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09-16-2011, 12:01 AM
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i dont seeing the sharks making it that far without d heater and seto.
i completely disagree. although the departure of seto will hurt a little, they have replaced a slow heatley with a fast havlat. now heatley is more of a natural scorer, but just seemed to hit a wall in sj and couldn't bounce back from it. i love the acquisition of burns, their d is extremely scary now:

boyle, burns, demers as the offensive roles from the backend. murray, white, vlasic as the dependable dmen.

the sharks and kings are my favorites to win the west. however i also predict a huge rebound season for the blackhawks.

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09-16-2011, 12:03 AM
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Interesting. A few reasonable gambles here and there.

I do think Washington had a tremendous off-season, but the level of play in their division has gotten substantially stronger in just one year.

My '11-12 gamble: the Pegula experiment will fall flat on its face in year one.

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09-16-2011, 12:03 AM
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surprised on how far out you have philly. i don't think they'll have a problem preventing goals, however there offense is a question mark for me. they still have giroux, briere, hartnell, etc. i would slate them more in the 8-10 range, as i believe they still have a decent team with a coach that has proven he can beat us.
Good points, JN. You virtually have to make at least one "outside the box" pick every year in order to make these predictions work....and clearly the Philly pick is mine, for they are obviously better than a #12 pick.

I really think they are going to miss Richards, immensely.


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09-16-2011, 12:05 AM
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i completely disagree. although the departure of seto will hurt a little, they have replaced a slow heatley with a fast havlat. now heatley is more of a natural scorer, but just seemed to hit a wall in sj and couldn't bounce back from it. i love the acquisition of burns, their d is extremely scary now:

boyle, burns, demers as the offensive roles from the backend. murray, white, vlasic as the dependable dmen.

the sharks and kings are my favorites to win the west. however i also predict a huge rebound season for the blackhawks.
i do agree that they have a ridiculously good team. they will no doubt make the playoffs now.. will they make it to the cup final.. i dont know lol

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09-16-2011, 12:05 AM
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I'd have the Flyers higher honestly. In fact, I think they may finish 1st in the East. While losing Carter and Richards hurts, that team is still incredibly talented. They will still score goals, they will still be intimidating, they still have a great defense, they still have a great leader in Pronger, and now they have that competent goalie they've been missing for years.

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09-16-2011, 12:13 AM
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My '11-12 gamble: the Pegula experiment will fall flat on its face in year one.
I would agree with you if you mean that the Ehrhoff and Leino signings will prove to be foolhardy, but that team has way too much depth to actually mess up and miss the playoffs.

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09-16-2011, 12:14 AM
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I don't even try this anymore. The gap between FA and camp makes me even forget who plays for who.

The first time Florida comes into town I'm going to have my mind blown.

I saw Buffalo up, I think that team is odd... but more for future things. 1) they are not built organizationally to carry that payroll, so deep pockets or no, losing $15M a year will get old quick if there's no big results and 2) what the hell are they thinking regarding next season's cap figure (they're in the mid $50's at 16 players, I think)... without knowing what the system will be or even if there will be a lockout that could create a wildcard situation when the CBA is finalized, where some weird things happen.

oh, and also 3) obviously someone needs to be traded before clear day. they are ridiculously over the cap

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09-16-2011, 12:17 AM
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also you absolutely nothing about hockey if you think...
Indeed, I know nothing about hockey...if my opinions do not align with yours.

Open mindedness and critical thought on display!

No need to be so small. I tossed out harmless predictions/commentary to faciliate informed discussion, not to hurt anyone's feelings. And I certainly do not claim any of them to be fact, just a point of view. Everyone, with the exception of you, seems to understand that, fortunately.


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09-16-2011, 12:35 AM
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Very believable predictions.

Cannot wait for October 8th.

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09-16-2011, 01:21 AM
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Wonderful read. I think Washington's gonna have the hunger this year, though. Much the way Thornton willed his team to the WCF last year, I think Ovechkin will do the same this year.

Toss-up for me in the West between Vancouver, San Jose, and LA.

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