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The Armchair GM Thread - Part XXIV

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Old
06-16-2012, 02:32 PM
  #76
AmazingNuck
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The Sedins need to score more. Kesler, when healthy, needs to score at even strength more. Hamhuis and Bieksa need to play better defense. Edler needs to play better defense. Ballard needs to improve.

The problem with the roster is not that we don't have good depth or good cap efficiency. The problem is that the players we depend on are the players that cause us to fail because they not only get a lot of money, they also get all of the best minutes (ie. o-zone starts, pp minutes). I think Vigneault is a great coach but extreme specializing of the lines is his downfall. The Canucks need to better distribute responsibility.

There's a similar principle in basketball to play against teams with a superstar player... Shut the rest of his teammates down instead of him. Even if the star scores 60 points, the rest of the team scoring 20 causes the team to lose. The Canucks do this to themselves.

Also, zero flexibility when the situation surrounds the Sedins. They don't play defense THAT well, they can't be split up to distribute scoring, they aren't physical and they aren't fast. When they aren't scoring, what the hell do they do besides take up the best offensive minutes?

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06-16-2012, 03:11 PM
  #77
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Originally Posted by kcunac View Post
What about Steve Ott? There were a bunch of rumors at the trade deadline, but we didn't pay the (presumably) high price. I like that he's 29 and plays both wing and centre.
I like Ott, would be good replacement for either Manny or Sammy. The price might be high. Rumor had it that GMJN wanted Hodgson and a roster player for him at the deadline. Hopefully that price has gone down.

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06-16-2012, 03:38 PM
  #78
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AmazingNuck View Post
The Sedins need to score more. Kesler, when healthy, needs to score at even strength more. Hamhuis and Bieksa need to play better defense. Edler needs to play better defense. Ballard needs to improve.

The problem with the roster is not that we don't have good depth or good cap efficiency. The problem is that the players we depend on are the players that cause us to fail because they not only get a lot of money, they also get all of the best minutes (ie. o-zone starts, pp minutes). I think Vigneault is a great coach but extreme specializing of the lines is his downfall. The Canucks need to better distribute responsibility.

There's a similar principle in basketball to play against teams with a superstar player... Shut the rest of his teammates down instead of him. Even if the star scores 60 points, the rest of the team scoring 20 causes the team to lose. The Canucks do this to themselves.

Also, zero flexibility when the situation surrounds the Sedins. They don't play defense THAT well, they can't be split up to distribute scoring, they aren't physical and they aren't fast. When they aren't scoring, what the hell do they do besides take up the best offensive minutes?
I completely agree with everything you've just said and I think that's what I find irritating is there seems to be a sort of union mentality on this team where seniority over talent or potential rules. This is my biggest problem with AV and why I wanted him shown the door is the entitlement culture on this team needs to go.

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06-16-2012, 04:33 PM
  #79
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Do you guys even read what you're typing? Lol

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06-16-2012, 04:37 PM
  #80
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When the Sedins are playing their cycle game down in the corner for shifts at a time, they're playing superb defense even if they're not scoring. The best defense imaginable is controlling the puck while being literally as far away from your own net as possible.

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06-16-2012, 04:48 PM
  #81
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Originally Posted by AmazingNuck View Post
The Sedins need to score more. Kesler, when healthy, needs to score at even strength more. Hamhuis and Bieksa need to play better defense. Edler needs to play better defense. Ballard needs to improve.

The problem with the roster is not that we don't have good depth or good cap efficiency. The problem is that the players we depend on are the players that cause us to fail because they not only get a lot of money, they also get all of the best minutes (ie. o-zone starts, pp minutes). I think Vigneault is a great coach but extreme specializing of the lines is his downfall. The Canucks need to better distribute responsibility.

There's a similar principle in basketball to play against teams with a superstar player... Shut the rest of his teammates down instead of him. Even if the star scores 60 points, the rest of the team scoring 20 causes the team to lose. The Canucks do this to themselves.

Also, zero flexibility when the situation surrounds the Sedins. They don't play defense THAT well, they can't be split up to distribute scoring, they aren't physical and they aren't fast. When they aren't scoring, what the hell do they do besides take up the best offensive minutes?
I think the Sedins can play on separate lines. It's just that AV never chooses that as an option. Every time Hank plays alone without Daniel he shows that he's got a lot more to his game than when he's playing with him. He carries the puck, fights off defenders on the boards, shoots the puck more, and on and on.

I don't actually know how Daniel plays without Hank on his line because it's something we've hardly seen in their 10 or so years of playing here. But I'm sure he's a good enough player to do well, and I've mentioned this before, but Kesler would defer to him which would mean he'd actually pass to him. Because Dan actually has a shot, he'd probably score some goals. And Daniel as we know is a great passer who would be able to get the puck back to Kesler in good scoring positions. Seems like a win win proposition.

I'm not sure I'd want to split the twins up full time, but it's definitely something that should be happening more, especially when they go into their mid-season funks.

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06-16-2012, 05:32 PM
  #82
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MW View Post
When the Sedins are playing their cycle game down in the corner for shifts at a time, they're playing superb defense even if they're not scoring. The best defense imaginable is controlling the puck while being literally as far away from your own net as possible.
The Sedins were eaten alive defensively in the 2011 playoffs. They were by far our worst defensive players.

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06-16-2012, 05:57 PM
  #83
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Originally Posted by AmazingNuck View Post
The Sedins need to score more. Kesler, when healthy, needs to score at even strength more. Hamhuis and Bieksa need to play better defense. Edler needs to play better defense. Ballard needs to improve.

The problem with the roster is not that we don't have good depth or good cap efficiency. The problem is that the players we depend on are the players that cause us to fail because they not only get a lot of money, they also get all of the best minutes (ie. o-zone starts, pp minutes). I think Vigneault is a great coach but extreme specializing of the lines is his downfall. The Canucks need to better distribute responsibility.

There's a similar principle in basketball to play against teams with a superstar player... Shut the rest of his teammates down instead of him. Even if the star scores 60 points, the rest of the team scoring 20 causes the team to lose. The Canucks do this to themselves.

Also, zero flexibility when the situation surrounds the Sedins. They don't play defense THAT well, they can't be split up to distribute scoring, they aren't physical and they aren't fast. When they aren't scoring, what the hell do they do besides take up the best offensive minutes?
Great post.

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Originally Posted by MW View Post
When the Sedins are playing their cycle game down in the corner for shifts at a time, they're playing superb defense even if they're not scoring. The best defense imaginable is controlling the puck while being literally as far away from your own net as possible.
You have to be able to get it first before going up ice with it. You can't start them 100% of the time in the O zone, though AV may try.

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06-16-2012, 06:00 PM
  #84
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Quote:
Originally Posted by vanuck View Post
Great post.



You have to be able to get it first before going up ice with it. You can't start them 100% of the time in the O zone, though AV may try.
Would be nice to have first liners who didn't need to be sheltered with all the O-zone starts.

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06-16-2012, 06:08 PM
  #85
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AmazingNuck View Post
There's a similar principle in basketball to play against teams with a superstar player... Shut the rest of his teammates down instead of him. Even if the star scores 60 points, the rest of the team scoring 20 causes the team to lose. The Canucks do this to themselves.
That's not close to the same thing, unless you're trying to argue that the Sedins become (proportionately) worse offensive players because they're getting offensive minutes.

The reason that works in basketball is that you're reducing the star's efficiency and forcing him to make plays to get points. That leads the other team to score on a smaller proportion of their possessions.

In hockey, it's totally different. The Sedins taking on more offensive zone draws means that the other lines are taking on fewer, but has no bearing on their efficiency. On average, forty offensive zone draws equal a GF in goal differential. Say the Sedins are better than average at one every thirty-five, and the third/fourth lines are worse than average at one out of forty-five. That doesn't change if the offensive zone draws are split 50/50 or 80/20, and the Canucks are better off for it.

Quote:
Originally Posted by y2kcanucks View Post
Would be nice to have first liners who didn't need to be sheltered with all the O-zone starts.
They don't need to be, as Henrik's 100+ point season three seasons ago shows. They are because the team is smart and understands the concept of comparative advantage. I'm certain they'd do the same thing with any top line players they had on the team.

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06-16-2012, 06:11 PM
  #86
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pitseleh View Post
That's not close to the same thing, unless you're trying to argue that the Sedins become (proportionately) worse offensive players because they're getting offensive minutes.

The reason that works in basketball is that you're reducing the star's efficiency and forcing him to make plays to get points. That leads the other team to score on a smaller proportion of their possessions.

In hockey, it's totally different. The Sedins taking on more offensive zone draws means that the other lines are taking on fewer, but has no bearing on their efficiency. On average, forty offensive zone draws equal a GF in goal differential. Say the Sedins are better than average at one every thirty-five, and the third/fourth lines are worse than average at one out of forty-five. That doesn't change if the offensive zone draws are split 50/50 or 80/20, and the Canucks are better off for it.



They don't need to be, as Henrik's 100+ point season three seasons ago shows. They are because the team is smart and understands the concept of comparative advantage. I'm certain they'd do the same thing with any top line players they had on the team.
Well then this year was a huge regression for them. Perhaps they are on a steep decline? Under a PPG, with a significant advantage in offensive zone starts does not bode well.

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06-16-2012, 06:17 PM
  #87
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FORWARDS
Daniel Sedin ($6.100m) / Henrik Sedin ($6.100m) / Alexandre Burrows ($2.000m)
David Booth ($4.250m) / Ryan Kesler ($5.000m) / Nikolai Kulemin ($2.400m)
Chris Higgins ($1.900m) / Jordan Schroeder ($1.025m) / Jannik Hansen ($1.350m)
Mason Raymond ($2.200m) / Manny Malhotra ($2.500m) / Maxim Lapierre ($1.000m)
Aaron Volpatti ($0.600m) /

DEFENSEMEN
Kevin Bieksa ($4.600m) / Dan Hamhuis ($4.500m)
Alexander Edler ($3.250m) / Carl Gunnarsson ($1.325m)
Keith Ballard ($4.200m) / Chris Tanev ($0.900m)
Andrew Alberts ($1.225m) / Marc-Andre Gragnani ($0.700m)

GOALTENDERS
Cory Schneider ($3.333m)
Eddie Lack ($0.900m)


CAP SPACE (23-man roster): $8,941,667

Kassian starts out in the AHL.
Almost 9M in cap space for upgrades (or throwing stupid money at Parise)

Luongo for Gunnarsson, Kulemin, picks.

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06-16-2012, 06:22 PM
  #88
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kthsn View Post
FORWARDS
Daniel Sedin ($6.100m) / Henrik Sedin ($6.100m) / Alexandre Burrows ($2.000m)
David Booth ($4.250m) / Ryan Kesler ($5.000m) / Nikolai Kulemin ($2.400m)
Chris Higgins ($1.900m) / Jordan Schroeder ($1.025m) / Jannik Hansen ($1.350m)
Mason Raymond ($2.200m) / Manny Malhotra ($2.500m) / Maxim Lapierre ($1.000m)
Aaron Volpatti ($0.600m) /

DEFENSEMEN
Kevin Bieksa ($4.600m) / Dan Hamhuis ($4.500m)
Alexander Edler ($3.250m) / Carl Gunnarsson ($1.325m)
Keith Ballard ($4.200m) / Chris Tanev ($0.900m)
Andrew Alberts ($1.225m) / Marc-Andre Gragnani ($0.700m)

GOALTENDERS
Cory Schneider ($3.333m)
Eddie Lack ($0.900m)


CAP SPACE (23-man roster): $8,941,667

Kassian starts out in the AHL.
Almost 9M in cap space for upgrades (or throwing stupid money at Parise)

Luongo for Gunnarsson, Kulemin, picks.
Terrible.

Kulemin is not a top 6 forward...the guy scored 7 goals last year. SEVEN GOALS.

Gunnarson is a left side defenseman...just plugging him in on the right side in our top 4 isn't going to work.

If all we get for Luongo is Gunnarsson and Kulemin, Gillis has failed big time. That lineup doesn't go anywhere in the playoffs.

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06-16-2012, 06:28 PM
  #89
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Originally Posted by y2kcanucks View Post
Terrible.

Kulemin is not a top 6 forward...the guy scored 7 goals last year. SEVEN GOALS.

Gunnarson is a left side defenseman...just plugging him in on the right side in our top 4 isn't going to work.

If all we get for Luongo is Gunnarsson and Kulemin, Gillis has failed big time. That lineup doesn't go anywhere in the playoffs.
Kulemin shot a very unlucky 7%, he will rebound. He's also big and great defensively. A great tweener forward. He plays RW which fills a organizational need.

Gunnarsson does play LD, but he ends up covering a lot for Phaneuf's willingness to roam. I think him at RD is an experiment worth trying.
Otherwise we get a cheap LD who played on the top pairing against the East's best. This makes Ballard expendable.

We also get picks in my proposal, and even if that pick is the 5th it won't make an impact on our roster this year.

Let me guess you want Gardiner?

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06-16-2012, 06:31 PM
  #90
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Well then this year was a huge regression for them. Perhaps they are on a steep decline? Under a PPG, with a significant advantage in offensive zone starts does not bode well.
PPG is pretty irrelevant when looking at the impact of EV zone starts. Regression in their play might be a part of it but there are simpler explanations.

First, their on-ice shooting percentage was due for some regression. They were around 14% in 09/10 and 11% in 10/11. Given their track record, you can adjust their expected on-ice SV% above from the normal range for most NHLers (8-9%), but even 11% is probably too high in terms of true talent. They regressed back to about 9%, which may be a bit on the low side for their true talent.

Second, while they've gotten easier zone starts, they've also faced tougher competition because the team doesn't line match as much as it used to. So that counteracts some of the benefit they've received from getting favourable zone starts.

Their Corsi has improved correspondingly with their increase in zone starts. That says they're being killed by percentages. It also means that they're primed for a better season next season, because Corsi predicts future success much better than the percentages do.

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06-16-2012, 06:31 PM
  #91
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kthsn View Post
Kulemin shot a very unlucky 7%, he will rebound. He's also big and great defensively. A great tweener forward.

Gunnarsson does play LD, but he ends up covering a lot for Phaneuf's willingness to roam. I think him at RD is an experiment worth trying.
Otherwise we get a cheap LD who played on the top pairing against the East's best. This makes Ballard expendable.

We also get picks in my proposal, and even if that pick is the 5th it won't make an impact on our roster this year.

Let me guess you want Gardiner?
7% isn't "very unlucky" it's below average, but not nearly as unlucky as he was lucky when he scored 30 goals shooting 17%. Kulemin is more likely a consistent 15 goal scorer which doesn't really help us. He's another 3rd line tweener to go along with Higgins, Hansen, Raymond. He's not that good.

I'm not willing to trade an elite goalie for an experiment. What if he doesn't workout? We have an overpaid 3rd/4th pairing LD. I'm not even convinced he's better than Ballard.

If we get the 5th overall pick I pull the trigger. IMO any deal with the Leafs MUST include either the 5th overall pick or Gardiner.

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06-16-2012, 06:38 PM
  #92
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Originally Posted by y2kcanucks View Post
7% isn't "very unlucky" it's below average, but not nearly as unlucky as he was lucky when he scored 30 goals shooting 17%. Kulemin is more likely a consistent 15 goal scorer which doesn't really help us. He's another 3rd line tweener to go along with Higgins, Hansen, Raymond. He's not that good.

I'm not willing to trade an elite goalie for an experiment. What if he doesn't workout? We have an overpaid 3rd/4th pairing LD. I'm not even convinced he's better than Ballard.

If we get the 5th overall pick I pull the trigger. IMO any deal with the Leafs MUST include either the 5th overall pick or Gardiner.
7% is unlucky, he will rebound to ~12%. That will make him a 15G scorer at least, and that's perfectly fine production considering his intangibles.

He's a tweener forward like I said but he also brings nice size, decent speed, great defensive instincts and a willingness to battle along the boards and use his body.

I take it you don't see Gunnarsson often but yes, he is an upgrade over Ballard, a very cost effective one at that.

Gardiner is completely overrated. He's extremely sheltered and he plays LD, he is most definitely worse than Ballard defensively. Don't see how he cracks our top 6 next year.

If we're going to trade with the Leafs regardless of picks coming our way I want roster players to make our immediate team better.

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06-16-2012, 06:39 PM
  #93
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gunnarsson is def better than ballard, at least as a strictly bottom pairing dman.

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06-16-2012, 06:43 PM
  #94
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kthsn View Post
7% is unlucky, he will rebound to ~12%. That will make him a 15G scorer at least, and that's perfectly fine production considering his intangibles.

He's a tweener forward like I said but he also brings nice size, decent speed, great defensive instincts and a willingness to battle along the boards and use his body.

I take it you don't see Gunnarsson often but yes, he is an upgrade over Ballard, a very cost effective one at that.

Gardiner is completely overrated. He's extremely sheltered and he plays LD, he is most definitely worse than Ballard defensively. Don't see how he cracks our top 6 next year.

If we're going to trade with the Leafs regardless of picks coming our way I want roster players to make our immediate team better.
So you want to trade a top 5 NHL goalie for a 3rd liner and a bottom pairing defenseman? Great asset management..that totally does NOT address any of our team needs at all

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06-16-2012, 06:50 PM
  #95
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So you want to trade a top 5 NHL goalie for a 3rd liner and a bottom pairing defenseman? Great asset management..that totally does NOT address any of our team needs at all
Trading with lottery teams doesn't usually put a lot of assets on the table.

The future picks (lets say its the 5th) + cap space is good enough.

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06-16-2012, 06:52 PM
  #96
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Originally Posted by kthsn View Post
Trading with lottery teams doesn't usually put a lot of assets on the table.

The future picks (lets say its the 5th) + cap space is good enough.
5th overall is good enough. Third liners and third pairing defensemen are not.

This teams biggest needs:

1) Top 6 forward who can produce when the rest of our offense gets shutdown.
2) Top 4 right side defenseman
3) Top prospect with top line potential to take over when the Sedins contract expires.

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06-16-2012, 06:54 PM
  #97
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Originally Posted by y2kcanucks View Post
5th overall is good enough. Third liners and third pairing defensemen are not.

This teams biggest needs:

1) Top 6 forward who can produce when the rest of our offense gets shutdown.
2) Top 4 right side defenseman
3) Top prospect with top line potential to take over when the Sedins contract expires.
I agree with your biggest needs, bang on.

Please make a proposal for Luongo/Toronto.

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06-16-2012, 06:54 PM
  #98
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So you want to trade a top 5 NHL goalie for a 3rd liner and a bottom pairing defenseman? Great asset management..that totally does NOT address any of our team needs at all
Gunnarsson played 22:00 a night for the Leafs. He's a top 4 dman in Vancouver - and likely an excellent compliment to Edler. He should absolutely be one of the targets from Toronto IMO.

I would be more than happy with our defense if Gillis could add Garrison and Gunnarsson. A couple of big, steady guys that will block shots and keep the opposition to the outside. That would give us Hamhuis, Gunnarsson, Garrison and Tanev - 4 reliable, defensive defensemen.

Move Ballard for a forward or pick/prospect.

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06-16-2012, 06:57 PM
  #99
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Originally Posted by Drop the Sopel View Post
Gunnarsson played 22:00 a night for the Leafs. He's a top 4 dman in Vancouver - and likely an excellent compliment to Edler. He should absolutely be one of the targets from Toronto IMO.

I would be more than happy with our defense if Gillis could add Garrison and Gunnarsson. A couple of big, steady guys that will block shots and keep the opposition to the outside. That would give us Hamhuis, Gunnarsson, Garrison and Tanev - 4 reliable, defensive defensemen.

Move Ballard for a forward or pick/prospect.
So who is bumped out of our top 4...Edler or Hamhuis? When we acquired Ballard we thought he would be a great addition to our top 4. But he too was a LHD and when we added Hamhuis a week later Ballard became depth. Gunnarsson is not better than what we already have in our top 4, and thus would become just depth. Makes no sense to acquire him.

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06-16-2012, 06:58 PM
  #100
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kthsn View Post
I agree with your biggest needs, bang on.

Please make a proposal for Luongo/Toronto.
Luongo, 26th overall pick for the 5th overall pick is something I would do.
Luongo, Tanev for Gardiner, 35th overall pick works too.

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