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I'm sorry, I can't hear you over the sound of how awesome Colby Rasmus is

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04-04-2012, 09:44 PM
  #1
The Nemesis
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I'm sorry, I can't hear you over the sound of how awesome Colby Rasmus is

So. Who wants avatars?

Rotation
Ricky RomeroBrandon MorrowHenderson AlvarezKyle DrabekDrew Hutchison


Bullpen

Carlos VillanuevaLuis PerezJason FrasorDarren Oliver
Casey JanssenFrancisco Cordero
Jesse Chavez and Robert Coello do not yet have an avatar.

Fielders
Kelly JohnsonYunel EscobarJose BautistaEdwin Encarnacion
Brett LawrieColby RasmusDavid CooperJ.P. ArencibiaRajai Davis


Bench

Jeff MathisOmar Vizquel
Mike McCoy will be added soon (like anyone really wants McCoy though )

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04-04-2012, 09:44 PM
  #2
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24 image per post limit means that there's a bit of overflow from post #1

Roster overflow


Non-Players
Alex AnthopoulosJohn FarrellAce

DL/Minors
Joel CarrenoDustin McGowanTravis SniderSergio SantosEvan Crawford
Adam LindBen FranciscoYan Gomes

"Fun" variants
Laura FrasorAlex Anthopoulos2The Rally CrabRally Crab v2Man in White



July Wallpapers

1920x1080
JP ArencibiaColby Rasmus

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JP ArencibiaColby Rasmus

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JP ArencibiaColby Rasmus


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06-15-2012, 12:55 PM
  #3
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ESPN illustrates the fatal flaws of the save, how it influence managers to make bad choices, and how it could be fixed.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/page/...aningful-again

This is exactly what I've been talking about when I've said the save is a dumb stat (at least insofar as it is currently used) that makes managers do dumb things.


and an insider article about bullpen mismanagement

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story...-relievers-mlb

also the first article links to this:

http://www.retrosheet.org/Research/S...ingPattern.pdf

illustrating how the "why" of the fact that paying for an "elite" closer is a dumb allotment of resources.

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06-15-2012, 01:05 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Nemesis View Post
ESPN illustrates the fatal flaws of the save, how it influence managers to make bad choices, and how it could be fixed.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/page/...aningful-again

This is exactly what I've been talking about when I've said the save is a dumb stat (at least insofar as it is currently used) that makes managers do dumb things.


and an insider article about bullpen mismanagement

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story...-relievers-mlb

also the first article links to this:

http://www.retrosheet.org/Research/S...ingPattern.pdf

illustrating how the "why" of the fact that paying for an "elite" closer is a dumb allotment of resources.
Would I pay good money for a quality proven reliever? Absolutely.

Would I pay stupid money for a quality proven "Closer"? Hell no.

15-20m for a reliever is very poor asset management. Id rather have a whole bullpen full of quality decent relievers for that cost rather then 1 person.

I also happen to think the best move that AA has made this year in the bullpen was darren oliver. Pure class and composure.

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06-15-2012, 01:07 PM
  #5
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http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/blog/da...year-they-sell

Jays are inquiring about Justin Morneau.

Holy ****, he would be ****ing awesome!

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06-15-2012, 01:20 PM
  #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Paladin2799 View Post
http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/blog/da...year-they-sell

Jays are inquiring about Justin Morneau.

Holy ****, he would be ****ing awesome!
I love the very last quote. I like Alex but Alex calls about everyone. Oh and I would also love to add Morneau. That kind of screams to me that no matter what Lind does in AAA they have no plans on bringing him back.

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06-15-2012, 01:22 PM
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I love the very last quote. I like Alex but Alex calls about everyone. Oh and I would also love to add Morneau. That kind of screams to me that no matter what Lind does in AAA they have no plans on bringing him back.
I think much more likely is that EE is on the way out the door.

Morneau to DH, Lind to 1st, EE out for prospects/pitching.

Would give morneau a chance to be safe from injury, lind is a much better defensive player then morneau and it keeps building our system.

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06-15-2012, 01:27 PM
  #8
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Jenkins had a decent game which is great.

6ip 4h 1er (solo shot) gave up 5 walks and 4k's

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06-15-2012, 01:38 PM
  #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Paladin2799 View Post
I think much more likely is that EE is on the way out the door.

Morneau to DH, Lind to 1st, EE out for prospects/pitching.

Would give morneau a chance to be safe from injury, lind is a much better defensive player then morneau and it keeps building our system.
We'd be acquiring Morneau to try to contend, why deal EE right after that? I don't understand why you think its more likely we deal EE than keep Lind in AAA/release him? Also i don't see how Lind is THAT much better at 1st than EE or Morneau? EE has played pretty well there this year and i've never known Morneau to be a TERRIBLE defender.

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06-15-2012, 01:41 PM
  #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Paladin2799 View Post
Would I pay good money for a quality proven reliever? Absolutely.

Would I pay stupid money for a quality proven "Closer"? Hell no.


15-20m for a reliever is very poor asset management. Id rather have a whole bullpen full of quality decent relievers for that cost rather then 1 person.

I also happen to think the best move that AA has made this year in the bullpen was darren oliver. Pure class and composure.
while not the primary and explicit goal of the articles, that is something that can be heavily inferred from the data.

Based on the info presented, teams entering the 9th with a 1 run lead will win that game about 86% of the time. Two run leads push the # to about 94%, and three runs up to 98%.

I don't have the raw numbers of how many leads of each type were counted, but if we assume that those lead amounts were fairly evenly distributed, that means that save situations in the 9th inning end in a win for that team about 92.3% of the time. Even if we weight it so that 1 run lead save situations are twice as likely as 2 or 3 run leads, that only pushes the average win rate in save situations down to about 88.9%. Even if 75% of saves are 1 run leads and only 10% are 3 run leads, the rate is still 88.1%

Now obviously closers haven't been used in these situations for the entirety of what the data represents (from what I understand, it's pretty much the whole history of major league baseball), but the data also shows that the win rate has not significantly changed due to the introduction of the save as a stat or the modern usage of the closer as a 9th inning specialist.

But the crux of the data is that when a team enters the 9th inning with a 1-3 run lead, they're going to win no less than about 86% of the time, and that on the whole the average rate at which a save would be earned in such situations is likely to be somewhere in the high 80% to low/mid 90%

Then there's Jonathan Papelbon, the latest closer to receive a big money contract. His career conversion rate on saves? about 88.3% So if we take those win rates I calculated above, at best, Papelbon converts the save at only just barely better than the league average save rate over the entire course of baseball history. At worst, he's about 4% under the league average. And yet Papelbon gets a contract equal to or superior to many starters. and exponentially larger than any other member of the bullpen.

This is why I've said that you should bring your best reliever in when he is most needed, and not hold onto him on the chance that you might need him for a precious precious save in the 9th inning.

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06-15-2012, 01:42 PM
  #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TorontoMarleauLeafs View Post
We'd be acquiring Morneau to try to contend, why deal EE right after that? I don't understand why you think its more likely we deal EE than keep Lind in AAA/release him? Also i don't see how Lind is THAT much better at 1st than EE or Morneau? EE has played pretty well there this year and i've never known Morneau to be a TERRIBLE defender.
Lind was a very capable defender at first. easily the best of the 3 IMHO.

We are nowhere near contending, its been going around that EE is being shopped because he is going to want a good contract after hitting the way he did. I would imagine that a canadian like morneau would give us an extra year of control while maintaining the same sort of bat, be acquired at a discount, as well as still freeing up EE for a kings ransom at the deadline.

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06-15-2012, 01:44 PM
  #12
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Originally Posted by The Nemesis View Post
while not the primary and explicit goal of the articles, that is something that can be heavily inferred from the data.

Based on the info presented, teams entering the 9th with a 1 run lead will win that game about 86% of the time. Two run leads push the # to about 94%, and three runs up to 98%.

I don't have the raw numbers of how many leads of each type were counted, but if we assume that those lead amounts were fairly evenly distributed, that means that save situations in the 9th inning end in a win for that team about 92.3% of the time. Even if we weight it so that 1 run lead save situations are twice as likely as 2 or 3 run leads, that only pushes the average win rate in save situations down to about 88.9%. Even if 75% of saves are 1 run leads and only 10% are 3 run leads, the rate is still 88.1%

Now obviously closers haven't been used in these situations for the entirety of what the data represents (from what I understand, it's pretty much the whole history of major league baseball), but the data also shows that the win rate has not significantly changed due to the introduction of the save as a stat or the modern usage of the closer as a 9th inning specialist.

But the crux of the data is that when a team enters the 9th inning with a 1-3 run lead, they're going to win no less than about 86% of the time, and that on the whole the average rate at which a save would be earned in such situations is likely to be somewhere in the high 80% to low/mid 90%

Then there's Jonathan Papelbon, the latest closer to receive a big money contract. His career conversion rate on saves? about 88.3% So if we take those win rates I calculated above, at best, Papelbon converts the save at only just barely better than the league average save rate over the entire course of baseball history. At worst, he's about 4% under the league average. And yet Papelbon gets a contract equal to or superior to many starters. and exponentially larger than any other member of the bullpen.

This is why I've said that you should bring your best reliever in when he is most needed, and not hold onto him on the chance that you might need him for a precious precious save in the 9th inning.
I agree heavily. Well written.

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06-15-2012, 02:31 PM
  #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Nemesis View Post
while not the primary and explicit goal of the articles, that is something that can be heavily inferred from the data.

Based on the info presented, teams entering the 9th with a 1 run lead will win that game about 86% of the time. Two run leads push the # to about 94%, and three runs up to 98%.

I don't have the raw numbers of how many leads of each type were counted, but if we assume that those lead amounts were fairly evenly distributed, that means that save situations in the 9th inning end in a win for that team about 92.3% of the time. Even if we weight it so that 1 run lead save situations are twice as likely as 2 or 3 run leads, that only pushes the average win rate in save situations down to about 88.9%. Even if 75% of saves are 1 run leads and only 10% are 3 run leads, the rate is still 88.1%

Now obviously closers haven't been used in these situations for the entirety of what the data represents (from what I understand, it's pretty much the whole history of major league baseball), but the data also shows that the win rate has not significantly changed due to the introduction of the save as a stat or the modern usage of the closer as a 9th inning specialist.

But the crux of the data is that when a team enters the 9th inning with a 1-3 run lead, they're going to win no less than about 86% of the time, and that on the whole the average rate at which a save would be earned in such situations is likely to be somewhere in the high 80% to low/mid 90%

Then there's Jonathan Papelbon, the latest closer to receive a big money contract. His career conversion rate on saves? about 88.3% So if we take those win rates I calculated above, at best, Papelbon converts the save at only just barely better than the league average save rate over the entire course of baseball history. At worst, he's about 4% under the league average. And yet Papelbon gets a contract equal to or superior to many starters. and exponentially larger than any other member of the bullpen.

This is why I've said that you should bring your best reliever in when he is most needed, and not hold onto him on the chance that you might need him for a precious precious save in the 9th inning.
closer is the most overrated position in baseball. Its insane that in a 5-5 game say, in the 7th, I shouldnt bring out my "closer" to ensure I get the 3 outs, instead keeping him on the bench and hoping one of my lesser relievers can get the job done, and when he inevitably lets in a run, I think can't use my "closer" cause were losing. Its stupid.

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06-15-2012, 03:04 PM
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Originally Posted by Paladin2799 View Post
I think much more likely is that EE is on the way out the door.

Morneau to DH, Lind to 1st, EE out for prospects/pitching.

Would give morneau a chance to be safe from injury, lind is a much better defensive player then morneau and it keeps building our system.
I just appears to me that Lind is pretty done as a Jay. Morneau and EE can platoon at first and DH. EE very well could be traded off but maybe they are also auditioning Cooper to try and up his value. Who knows? But there are many viable options if they can bring in someone line Morneau.

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06-15-2012, 03:51 PM
  #15
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Stilson promoted to AA New Hampshire.

Ben Francisco joins him in AA for rehab.

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06-15-2012, 04:12 PM
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Well hopefully that means Drabek's injury isn't serious. Hoping Cecil pitches well in his call up.
Unfortunately, it's a sprained UCL. I think you know what that means...

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06-15-2012, 04:41 PM
  #17
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one more piece on closers:

http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/po...ow-we-got-here

tracking the evolution of the closer as a designated role and how we ended up in a baseball world where a team loses a game and their best reliever doesn't get out of his seat when the game was clsoe because it's not a "save situation".

EDIT: sorry, here's the real "one more piece", a bit on closers and their use (or lack thereof) in high leverage situations, specifically with inherited runners:

http://www.highheatstats.com/2012/02...he-year-award/

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06-15-2012, 04:43 PM
  #18
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Unfortunately, it's a sprained UCL. I think you know what that means...
That's an incorrect statement, a sprained UCL does not always mean TJ. Feliz sprained his earlier this year and should be back around the All-Star break.

Sadly for Drabek it probably does mean Tommy John, terrible news for the team. Hopefully his future isn't in jeopardy

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06-15-2012, 05:08 PM
  #19
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Very interesting post Nemesis, and I agree with you. Just to play the devil's advocate, couldn't you make an argument that holding back a strong arm for the VERY late innings (8 and 9) is effective in getting the hitters off-time? Majority of closers (at least traditionally) are guys that can hit mid-90's with a fastball and after 8 innings of seeing fastballs at ~90mph, seeing that extra heat in the 9th could lead to more swing and misses. By no means am I saying I agree with overpaying for a "closing" pitcher, but I do see some value in keeping a strong arm for the 9th.



As for the Morneau thing, yea I agree with those of you that said the trade would mean the end of the Lind era.

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06-15-2012, 05:42 PM
  #20
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2 Things I wish Bautista would do differently

1. Crowd the plate like Rasmus does. He has the eye to do it.

2. Stop having his upper half "flying open" when he swings.

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06-15-2012, 06:22 PM
  #21
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What would the price be on morneau..

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06-15-2012, 07:03 PM
  #22
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somewhere there's a Blue Jays voodoo doll with pins in its arm...

added the posts on the last two major discussion points from the other thread: the Justin Morneau rumor and the saves discussion.

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06-15-2012, 07:09 PM
  #23
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added the posts on the last two major discussion points from the other thread: the Justin Morneau rumor and the saves discussion.
I hate not realizing a thread is being closed. I just posted some long winded response to see the thread closed LOL. Oh well.


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06-15-2012, 07:14 PM
  #24
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From the last thread some people were talking about bringing in the best reliever in some other situation than the last inning

I look at it this way. Bottom of the 6 th base load tied game in game 7 in the world series Yanks need to make a pitching change. Why would you use Rivera in that situation? There is still 3 ab for the yanks in case they lose the lead. So say Rivera gets out of that inning then in the 9th they are up a run 3 outs from the world series and their best reliever has already been used now you got some lesser pitcher pitching to the heart of the order in the most pressure filled spot in the game.

To me you keep the closer till 6 outs left and you still have a setup man who maybe a notch below can get those puts in 6th or 7th

Just my personal preference and probably most MLB people

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06-15-2012, 07:34 PM
  #25
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From the last thread some people were talking about bringing in the best reliever in some other situation than the last inning

I look at it this way. Bottom of the 6 th base load tied game in game 7 in the world series Yanks need to make a pitching change. Why would you use Rivera in that situation? There is still 3 ab for the yanks in case they lose the lead. So say Rivera gets out of that inning then in the 9th they are up a run 3 outs from the world series and their best reliever has already been used now you got some lesser pitcher pitching to the heart of the order in the most pressure filled spot in the game.

To me you keep the closer till 6 outs left and you still have a setup man who maybe a notch below can get those puts in 6th or 7th

Just my personal preference and probably most MLB people
But what about the reverse situation? You bring a lesser reliever in earlier in the game in a tied or close situation and he blows it. Now your best reliever sits in the pen and potentially doesn't get used because it's not a save situation. Maybe your offence picks up and comes back, maybe it doesn't. But if you never coughed up the lead, this isn't even an issue in the first place.

Also you can't guarantee the heart of the order comes up in the 9th, so that's hardly a relevant point. You could just as easily save your closer for the 9th and it ends up that he faces 4 through 7, or 6 through 8, or 8 through 1. No guarantees.

And the idea that coming into a fresh 9th inning with no one on and a 1-3 run lead is somehow more pressure packed than a tie game in the 6th or 7th with 2 men on base and less than 2 out is tenuous at best. From my perspective, the pressure of the 9th inning is almost entirely artificial. We've built up closers to some sort of quasi-mystical baseball being who have just the right mix of cockiness and mental fortitude to get the job done, and that their mindset is the rarest of rare assets. That's largely the doing of the media, baseball storytellers, and agents looking for big paydays. After all, you couldn't get Jonathan Papelbon a starter-calibre contract if he wasn't all that different from any other good reliever. Especially not when his save conversion rate isn't a whole lot different than the historical average of potential save conversions.

the numbers are pretty clear that looking back all the way to the time when starters were expected to pitch the whole game, through the "firemen" period where your best guy could come in and pitch 2 or 3 innings to close out a game, and all the way through to the 9th inning specialist closer, the chances of you winning the game when you enter the 9th with a lead are nearly identical.

as for this:

Quote:
...and probably most MLB people
That doesn't mean a thing. A few hundred years ago every respected scientist in the world knew with unwavering certainty that Earth was the center of the known universe and the heavens revolved around us. history is filled with smart people believing dumb things because it's what everyone else believes. At least the anti-save crowd can bring some quantitative evidence that is built on pure, unmanipulated raw numbers, and not just anecdotes and fake truisms.

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