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Your 2012-2013 St. Louis Blues...part zwei

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Old
07-16-2012, 07:35 PM
  #451
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Originally Posted by BlueDream View Post
Yeah I'd be completely fine with Schwartz in the lineup, but if that's the case then we need to move D'Agostini. Don't want to pay him $1.8 million to sit in the pressbox. If he doesn't have a top 9 spot then he doesn't have much use to us IMO.
What's wrong with keeping a depth guy with Top 6 ability, if it fits under the payroll structure? Also acts as an insurance policy to keep Stewart more motivated, if they're all competing not to be "that guy". Injuries are bound to happen.

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07-18-2012, 01:04 PM
  #452
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Anyone think Perron can push for 70+ points? He was on pace for 60 and that was when he was able to really train and get into top shape.

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07-18-2012, 01:50 PM
  #453
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Originally Posted by bleedblue1223 View Post
Anyone think Perron can push for 70+ points? He was on pace for 60 and that was when he was able to really train and get into top shape.
If he stays healthy idt it's all that crazy. I'd think 70 points would be about tops though not to much over.

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07-18-2012, 02:00 PM
  #454
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Originally Posted by bleedblue1223 View Post
Anyone think Perron can push for 70+ points? He was on pace for 60 and that was when he was able to really train and get into top shape.
Yep, sure do. As long as he doesnt get injured i really think he will score between 30-35 goals, maybe even a few more. Depending on a Chris Stewart rebound, Berglund playing where he left off or Tarasenko being a monster, Perron should be a 70+pt player.

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07-18-2012, 02:07 PM
  #455
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I have Perron at 65 for now.

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07-18-2012, 02:57 PM
  #456
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I don't even care if D'Agostini beats Schwartz out, I just want camp to start. If they **** up the CBA negotiations, they should all get ***** slapped.

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07-18-2012, 03:15 PM
  #457
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If Perron wants to be a 30 goal scorer (and I certainly believe that he can be), then his top priority next year needs to be putting more pucks on net. He's consistently around 160-165 shots per 82 games at this stage in his development. That translates to ~23 goals at his career shooting percentage average of 13.8% (which is fairly high for a career average, even among elite level scorers).

To have any sort of realistic shot at 30 goals, he probably needs to put about 200 shots on net next year. To make it a probable scenario, you're talking more like 225 shots. For some perspective, the players who scored 30+ goals over the last 2 years averaged 256 shots between them.

That's a pretty large increase over his current level of shot production. Too large to realistically hope for in a one year development spurt. He might get there with an abnormally high shooting percentage, but that's not the sort of thing you can count on or expect him to be able to repeat consistently. I peg his realistic ceiling for next year at about 25G/40A/65P, personally.

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07-18-2012, 03:40 PM
  #458
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The year that Perron got hurt he was on pace for 238 shots and his 17.2% shooting percentage put him on pace for 40 goals. That season he said he felt like he was in the best shape of his carreer. I personally believe he will come into camp in better shape than he was starting that season. He probably wont net 40 but i think he will have 30+ hes got talent and being in better shape should definately help him out. My only concern is him staying healthy.

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07-18-2012, 03:50 PM
  #459
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ignore42me View Post
The year that Perron got hurt he was on pace for 238 shots and his 17.2% shooting percentage put him on pace for 40 goals. That season he said he felt like he was in the best shape of his carreer. I personally believe he will come into camp in better shape than he was starting that season. He probably wont net 40 but i think he will have 30+ hes got talent and being in better shape should definately help him out. My only concern is him staying healthy.
Assuming that Perron stays healthy all year, I'd predict him to score from 27-32 goals and from 55 to 70 points, depending upon his linemates and how the puck is distributed and how much power play time he gets, and what position he plays on it, as well as which shift (#1 or 2) he gets. There are a lot of factors. But, he is CERTAINLY capable of scoring 30 goals and 70 points in The NHL. It just depends upon what offensive and defensive system his team employs, his linemates and his ES and PP ice time.

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Old
07-18-2012, 04:46 PM
  #460
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One reason Perron's shot percentage is so high is he's very particular about shooting. He's very patient with the puck, skating and dangling and working to get into just the right position to take the shot. His shooting percentage is always going to be well above average for this reason, but he's also going to take fewer shots for the same reason. I don't know how many goals he'll score nor do I care to guess. But I will say having observed him is he's almost a perfectionist about shooting. The advantage of him being so lethal when he does fire off a shot is it forces defenses to scramble to contain his dangling so he doesn't get his body position in just the right place, and that opens up other options and Perron is a good enough playmaker and has enough judgment to make the pass when he doesn't have the shot. For this reason I am most excited to see an experiment of Tarasenko on the other wing at some point, simply because Tarasenko has some of the same qualities. Tarasenko is likely to shoot a little more often than Perron (at least in the KHL) and they equally create chaos among the defense. Both are willing to put themselves in the hard areas of the ice if it will give them the right shot. They both just love to score too much to be scared of the consequences of getting hit. Both can make the last-second pass when the defense collapses on them, and both have accurate shots. Put Backes or even Berglund between them and I think you'll be looking at something special. I'm very excited to see it.

What we really have to hope for is Stewart to find a way to click with Berlgund (or for D'Agostini to flourish on that line). Ideally, three lines with approximately equal ice time:

Perron-Backes-Tarasenko
McDonald-Berglund-Stewart
D'Agostini-Steen-Oshie

with Schwartz an option for the Steen-Oshie line.

If Stewart can't click, put D'Agostini in that spot and then Sobotka or Schwartz on the Steen-Oshie line. Someone will get hurt so you don't automatically trade D'Agostini but keep him so you have flexibility. Right now your fourth line projects as Sobotka-Nichol-Langenbrunner and Reaves/Porter are your 13/14. The big drama in camp is who wins between Schwartz and Porter for the final spot, as the rest are all one-way contracts (assuming we include Tarasenko in that category).

I know that it's somewhat useless to project lines with the versatility the Blues have in the lineup and tendency for Hitchcock to experiment, but if they're determined to use Steen at center then this is probably how I'd like to see it shake out. If Stewart's issue was purely conditioning (I don't think so, but suppose I'm wrong), then he should be able to produce with Berglund and McDonald, right? If he can't then what you've got is a non-versatile, one-way winger who's inconsistent in the one thing he's good at (scoring) and doesn't use the body anywhere near enough to win puck battles, and you need to trade him. If he can, then he should give you the kind of freedom to structure the lines something like I've laid out above.

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Old
07-18-2012, 05:57 PM
  #461
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It'd be odd to watch a Perron-Backes-Tarasenko line. Not often you see a line where both wingers are playing their off wing.

At least it would to me

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Old
07-19-2012, 02:00 PM
  #462
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Don't see any chance that Tarasenko starts on the 1st line and Oshie on the 3rd.

It will likely be:

X (D'Agostini?) - Backes - Oshie
Perron - Berglund - Stewart
McDonald - Steen - Tarasenko

to start. And I would LOVE to watch McDonald and Tarasenko together.

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07-19-2012, 02:06 PM
  #463
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BlueDream View Post
Don't see any chance that Tarasenko starts on the 1st line and Oshie on the 3rd.

It will likely be:

X (D'Agostini?) - Backes - Oshie
Perron - Berglund - Stewart
McDonald - Steen - Tarasenko

to start. And I would LOVE to watch McDonald and Tarasenko together.
All 3 Top 9 lines should get similar 5 on 5 minutes. Therefore, calling them Line 1, Line 2 and Line 3 is meaningless. They should be interchangeable, depending upon the individual game situation. So, it may be that Tarasenko is put on any of the three, depending upon what Hitchcock and crew decide to try in camp, and how well the duos and trios click together. I won't be surprised with any combination, given the current Top 10 forwards.

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07-19-2012, 02:50 PM
  #464
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Pocket and Robb good thoughts. We know there will be some line juggling. Stewart is so good on the back hand I wonder if we will see him on the off wing at some point. A lot of offensive potential.

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Old
07-19-2012, 05:35 PM
  #465
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Originally Posted by Robb_K View Post
All 3 Top 9 lines should get similar 5 on 5 minutes. Therefore, calling them Line 1, Line 2 and Line 3 is meaningless. They should be interchangeable, depending upon the individual game situation. So, it may be that Tarasenko is put on any of the three, depending upon what Hitchcock and crew decide to try in camp, and how well the duos and trios click together. I won't be surprised with any combination, given the current Top 10 forwards.
True, but he won't be getting more ice time than Backes and Oshie, therefore why I'm referring to them as the #1 line.

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07-19-2012, 06:04 PM
  #466
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Backes and Oshie play both PP and PK minutes and will get robust 5x5 time as well. Tarasenko likely won't see the PK much, though I do hope he gets some PP opportunity, because I think he'll seize that opportunity and earn PP time.

The 5x5 lines will be balanced in whatever way Hitchcock thinks best. He has shown a bias toward putting Backes with Oshie, but he's also openly discussed the option of Oshie as that third center. So we really don't know what we'll see. McDonald obviously is a 19-20 minute per night player when in the lineup, and Steen averaged over 19 min before his injury so if they're on a line with Tarasenko can we call that the "third" line? Of course not. They'll mix and match for the best combos. Stewart's play will make a big impact on how flexible the lines can be.

Perron and Tarasenko on the same line just seems like a fascinating match since both can shoot so accurately, and which one do defenses concentrate on shutting down? It may not happen right away but sooner or later we'll probably see it tried, and I'm eager to see it.

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Old
07-19-2012, 06:08 PM
  #467
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We have a top 9 and a 4th line. Other teams have a top 6 and bottom 6. Just because they are listed 3rd doesn't mean anything, as our 3rd line is pretty much on the same level as the 1st line. The difference in playing time comes down to situations, special teams, and how the lines are performing on a given night.

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Old
07-20-2012, 05:13 AM
  #468
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IMO there's still another move coming.

Now that Oshie has signed, they have 13 one-way forward contracts with Schwartz (1.166667M) or Porter (650K) cap hit as the 14th. I'm including Tarasenko as a de facto one way contract.

The 7th dman right now is one of Woyrika (700K), Fairchild (875K) or Chorney (575K). Woyrika is the logical favorite due to # of NHL games and since his contract is basically in the middle we'll use him.

So, using Woyrika and keeping Schwartz up, the Blues are 500K below the cap floor. Using Woyrika and sending Schwartz down while keeping Porter up, the Blues are 1.017M below the cap floor.

There are two more factors which oppose each other. When a player is injured and a callup must be made, the NHL version of the two way salary gets counted against the cap. So if Fairchild is up for a month of days, that's about 150K more against the cap. If Cracknell spends a month of days up, it's nearly 100K toward the cap. If McRae is up for half the year, that's about 425K. Anyway, there will be some injuries, some callups, and some total toward the cap. But it won't be a catastrophic number. 1.5M is a fairly reasonable guess.

That would seem to put the Blues just above the cap floor. But wait. $4,645,833 of the cap hit is in bonuses to Pietrangelo, Shattenkirk, Cole, Tarasenko, Schwartz, Langenbrunner and Nichol. It won't all be reached. A sizeable percentage may be reached, but some of it will be credited back. I suspect the vast majority of Petro's Schedule B bonuses will get credited back unless he wins the Norris and does a bunch of other league-wide things. These outcomes are possible, but you can almost guarantee the Blues will have some of that bonus money credited back. Enough that with the existing 500K or 1.017M cap shortfall, the callup cap hits won't get them to the floor unless the injury situation is very significant.

In any event, the Blues can't plan as if all the bonuses will be reached and the injury bug will hit enough to force lots of Peoria callups. At the same time, the roster is currently set. 14 forwards (with Schwartz or Porter as the 15th), 7 dmen, 2 goalies. That's 23.

If there is a lowering of the floor with the CBA, then there will be rollbacks, as the current range was set based on the formulas dictated in the existing CBA. So the Blues would be slightly less below the cap floor but still below, even if there's a rollback.

Conclusion: they still need to adjust the roster to get above the cap floor. They will have to make one more move. The most likely answer is there will be a defensive acquisition who will supplant the 7th dman salary of 700K (Woyrika) by enough to get over the floor. However, I believe JR's reporting in L'Affaire Morrow is based on genuine interest, and it could still be something like a forward for forward trade. An example would be D'Agostini and a pick/prospect for Morrow. It doesn't have to be a trade. They could do what none of us seem to want which is re-sign Colaiacovo to supplant the Woyrika 700K, but the free agent options are less likely than a trade IMO.

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07-20-2012, 03:01 PM
  #469
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The Blues have come a long way baby. In 2006 the roster compared to now is night and day.

Up front aging veterans:
Drake - 37
Weight - 36
Guerin - 36
Rucinsky - 35
Walt - 34

Youngsters:
Backes - 22
Boyes - 24
McClement - 23
Stepniak - 23

Defense:
Wideman - 23
Jackman - 25
Backman - 26
Brewer - 26
McKee - 29

Nets:
Legace - 33
Sanford - 27
Bacashihua -

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Old
07-20-2012, 04:27 PM
  #470
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Originally Posted by bleedblue1223 View Post
We have a top 9 and a 4th line. Other teams have a top 6 and bottom 6. Just because they are listed 3rd doesn't mean anything, as our 3rd line is pretty much on the same level as the 1st line. The difference in playing time comes down to situations, special teams, and how the lines are performing on a given night.
For a few seasons now the Blues have almost been able to roll three lines going back to the McCrombSteen line. A few injuries derailed it here and there, but the Blues are still quite focused on being able to roll three lines.

Even the 4th line gets more minutes than other teams' 4th line.

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Old
07-22-2012, 09:32 AM
  #471
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Cole Petro
Jackman Shattenkirk
Carlo Polak

Russell

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Old
07-22-2012, 11:42 AM
  #472
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Do u guys remember two years ago when cole played like twenty five games with us and the bulk of them were with shatty. They looked really good and complimented each other well. Apparently they played together on the US nat'l development team so they have some chemistry.

I feel liike we could possibly go
russell-petro
cole-shatty
jackman-polak- Iknow that a few years ago when they were together they had alot of problems getting the puck out of the zone. But they were also playing close to 25-30 minutes a game with reduced 5 on 5 time and their pk time they could have fresh legs through out the game and be counted on for penalty killing especially late in a game.

I also like this because if there together for 5 on 5 it gives the other pairing time to recover duri PK'S. Before Jax and polak would get off the ice and the pairings would be mixed up. If they play together anyways than it's easier to transition the shift right after you kill a penalty. Just one of those really small details i thought about that can help us win.


Last edited by STLBLUES44: 07-22-2012 at 11:49 AM. Reason: sorry for my run on sentences and bad grammar. It's tough on a cell phone :)
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Old
07-22-2012, 11:50 AM
  #473
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Swap Russell and Jackman if you want Cole and Shatty together. Jackman and Polak would just be a disaster, especially against teams like LA. Russell and Polak are great compliments and Jackman has to play with Pietrangelo or Shattenkirk to actually be effective.

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Old
07-22-2012, 11:51 AM
  #474
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Cole Petro
Jackman Shattenkirk
Carlo Polak

Russell
if we really sign Carlo I hope Army makes sure, tells him and pays him as the #7 D-man

Russell deserves to be ahead of him in the charts...far ahead

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Old
07-22-2012, 11:59 AM
  #475
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Swap Russell and Jackman if you want Cole and Shatty together. Jackman and Polak would just be a disaster, especially against teams like LA. Russell and Polak are great compliments and Jackman has to play with Pietrangelo or Shattenkirk to actually be effective.
There's no way jackman can play top minutes tho i don't care who his partner is. I was just thinking that you basically play russell petro and cole shatty for basically the entire game. and give jax and polak like 8-10 minutes of 5 on 5 play with the bashie line. Then have them killing penalties like they always do and we could be in great shape. If Hitch is comfortable with russell and cole playing that many minutes than it could be an experiment worth testing.

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