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2012 Draft - 2nd Pick: Mitch Moroz

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Old
10-23-2012, 10:27 AM
  #501
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Originally Posted by joestevens29 View Post
Then sign Ben Eager, Eric Belanger, Andy Sutton, Hordichuk, Petrell and pick up Ryan Jones off waivers.
You mean everyone else's leftovers?

The players nobody else wants?

That's been a recipe for success hasnt it?

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10-23-2012, 10:31 AM
  #502
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I love how people act on here like a 2nd round pick is the next coming of Gretzky. I'm fine with drafting for need in any round after the 1st. There's always a chance that a great player can be drafted in any round but I think with Moroz playing for the Oil Kings he'll be trained and groomed into being a Moreau type of player.

If I look at 2nd round picks from 2000 to 2007, there were a combined total of 269 players chosen. Out of these 269 players I will list the legitamite superstars that were picked in the second round.

2000: Ilya Bryzgalov 44th overall

2001: Mike Cammalleri 49th overall

2002: Duncan Keith 54th overall

2003: Loui Eriksson 33 overall, Patrice Bergeron 45th overall, Shea Weber 49th overall, David Backes 62nd overall

2004: David Krejci 63rd overall

2005: James Neal 33rd overall, Paul Stastny 44th overall

2006: Milan Lucic 50th overall

2007: P.K. Subban 43rd overall

So out of 269 players, only 12 players i'd consider star players, with an average of 1 star player taken per year except for the 2003 super draft. There is probably an average of 4 servacable players taken each year in the second round but clearly the odds of drafting a superstar is pretty slim.

12/269 is approximately a 4% chance of drafting a star player and if we say there's 4 servicable players taken per draft 32/269 would be a 12% chance of drafting a servicable player. There's just no reason to worry about this pick, he wasn't the best pick available but he fits a need for the club and i'm fine with that. If we ended up picking Murray over Yakupov then that's a differant story.

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10-23-2012, 10:41 AM
  #503
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fyi read this about the "Holland Mystique"

http://www.letsgowings.com/forums/to...scotty-bowman/

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10-23-2012, 10:41 AM
  #504
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Originally Posted by CupofOil View Post
So what you're saying (and correct me if i'm wrong) is that Ewanyk and Moroz are wasted picks (guaranteed losses as you put it) and will never play in the NHL?
They won't have trade value after their ELC. You can quote me on it.

And they will get an ELC because of the sunk cost fallacy.

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Originally Posted by I am the Liquor View Post
Maybe they could write a nasty letter to the editor?
Maybe they could work like-minded teams and change the rules to more severely punish players that take cheapshots?

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Im sure Boston fans were saying the same thing about Lucic.
Got any other examples of this working? Or should the Oilers continue to try to acquire players from the Indianapolis Racers in hopes replicating their previous ability to find the two highest scoring players ever that way?

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Originally Posted by I am the Liquor View Post
What do those teams and this team have in common? Who was our Yakupov, Eberle, Hall, RNH, and Schultz?

Unless you think having a team of Eberle's and Rajala's is going to be successful, you better be looking at getting some balance and addressing other needs, which was what was done here.
You can never have too many good players. The only place to reliably find elite players for cheap is in the draft inside the top 100 picks.

The ideology behind drafting Moroz is wrong. Would you trade any of the following players for Moroz? Brandon Saad, Justin Faulk, Ryan O'Reilly, Slava Voynov, PK Subban, Jeff Petry, James Neal, Johan Fransson, Patrice Bergeron.

That is one player from each draft in since 2003 that was selected in the first half of the second round. You'd intentionally pass over that type of player for Moroz?

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10-23-2012, 10:42 AM
  #505
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Originally Posted by I am the Liquor View Post
You mean everyone else's leftovers?

The players nobody else wants?

That's been a recipe for success hasnt it?
Seemed to work fine for the Kings with Richards, Penner and Carter.

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10-23-2012, 10:45 AM
  #506
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Originally Posted by Hynh View Post
Seemed to work fine for the Kings with Richards, Penner and Carter.
Are you suggesting those players are leftovers?

It cost the Kings

Simmonds,Schenn,Jack Johnson,2 1st round picks,Teubert, and a 2nd round pick.

That ain't leftovers thats the main course

Give your head a shake

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10-23-2012, 10:45 AM
  #507
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Originally Posted by 40oz View Post
Do you have a link where Holland says this?

What about Darren Helm? Was he a top 6 player when he scored 24 points in his draft year? Because that's less than Ewanyk and Moroz each scored in their draft years...

edit: I see Jimmi Jenkins made the same argument above.
Holland said this on Gregors show a few times in the past.

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10-23-2012, 10:46 AM
  #508
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Originally Posted by AUAIOMRN View Post
They may play in the NHL, but won't become something that isn't easily replaceable.

At least that's the argument, I'm not taking either side.
Ok but how many 2nd and 3rd rounders become players that are difficult to replace?
It's really a crapshoot after the 1st round. Hell, people (including myself) were *****ing about the Musil pick last season and now he's tracking really well and looks to be a pro sooner than later IMO so you never really know with these 2nd-3rd round picks.
Ewanyk was actually good value for where he was picked so i don't know what the complaining about him is all about (not from you, other posters).
Moroz was a reach but i will withhold judgment until he plays more than several games.
A lot of us wanted Thrower at the time (including myself) and he has been a healthy scratch more than once, is he now a bust?
Even if Moroz only becomes a 3rd-4th line grinder who is tough to play against and will protect the skilled guys, i would take that over a defenseman who would likely get lost in the shuffle.

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10-23-2012, 10:54 AM
  #509
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Originally Posted by I am the Liquor View Post
You mean everyone else's leftovers?

The players nobody else wants?

That's been a recipe for success hasnt it?
Worked well for Boston

Seidenberg from FLO, becomes top pairing d-man.

Campbell as throw in to Horton-Weidman trade

Chris Kelly for a 2nd

Peverley waivers

Boychuck for next to nothing.

Thornton UFA they kept for years.

All key players that were easily obtainable that cost very little.

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10-23-2012, 11:01 AM
  #510
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Originally Posted by joestevens29 View Post
Worked well for Boston

Seidenberg from FLO, becomes top pairing d-man.

Campbell as throw in to Horton-Weidman trade

Chris Kelly for a 2nd

Peverley waivers

Boychuck for next to nothing.

Thornton UFA they kept for years.

All key players that were easily obtainable that cost very little.
Chris Kelly for a 2nd? Isnt a 2nd a significant asset? What would you think if the Oilers drafted someone with 3rd line C upside in the second round?

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10-23-2012, 11:09 AM
  #511
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Originally Posted by 40oz View Post
Chris Kelly for a 2nd? Isnt a 2nd a significant asset? What would you think if the Oilers drafted someone with 3rd line C upside in the second round?
If it's a 30-40 point all around player fine, no issue. The problem is that's the max potential that some of the guys we are drafting have, odds of them getting there significantly worse. Why not just trade the asset for the sure thing?

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10-23-2012, 11:10 AM
  #512
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Originally Posted by Joe Hallenback View Post
Are you suggesting those players are leftovers?

It cost the Kings

Simmonds,Schenn,Jack Johnson,2 1st round picks,Teubert, and a 2nd round pick.

That ain't leftovers thats the main course

Give your head a shake
They were bought for less than market price. They are much better than Ryan Jones so they cost more. Half off a car is a better deal than a free bike.

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Chris Kelly for a 2nd? Isnt a 2nd a significant asset? What would you think if the Oilers drafted someone with 3rd line C upside in the second round?
Kelly doesn't have 3rd line upside, he is a 3rd liner. Big difference. Moroz MIGHT be something. Kelly is something. There's also the circumstances. The Oilers are (still) rebuilding. The Bruins were making a push to the cup. Also, Boston was going to win the division. That pick was going to be no better than 54.

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10-23-2012, 11:17 AM
  #513
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Originally Posted by I am the Liquor View Post
Easily replaceable?

How so?

Is there a bottomless pit of players that can fight, hit, and play hockey at a high level? Because I dont see it if there is.
I believe the argument is that they may be able to fight and hit, but not so much "play hockey at a high level".

But, again, this isn't my opinion.

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10-23-2012, 11:34 AM
  #514
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Just to clarify I don't care if we draft a guy and he ends up in a bottom 6 role or a #5 d-man, but if that's what you are drafting in the 2nd round and don't think he has any better potential then that, then you have a problem on your hand.

Drafting Moreau 14th overall because he has grit, offense and defense but doesn't bring that offense to the NHL is okay.

Drafting Jacques 68th overall because he's big and has speed, but really has no more potential than a 3rd/4th line banger is pointless.

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10-23-2012, 11:39 AM
  #515
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Originally Posted by joestevens29 View Post
Just to clarify I don't care if we draft a guy and he ends up in a bottom 6 role or a #5 d-man, but if that's what you are drafting in the 2nd round and don't think he has any better potential then that, then you have a problem on your hand.

Drafting Moreau 14th overall because he has grit, offense and defense but doesn't bring that offense to the NHL is okay.

Drafting Jacques 68th overall because he's big and has speed, but really has no more potential than a 3rd/4th line banger is pointless.
This is my thinking too.

Dave Bolland was drafted at 32 as a scorer, developed as a scorer but now has to earn his pay as a checker. That happens. There are only 180 "top 6" jobs in the NHL. There are 360 "top 6" players in the CHL, not to mention the NCAA, SEL, etc..

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10-23-2012, 11:42 AM
  #516
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Originally Posted by Hynh View Post
This is my thinking too.

Dave Bolland was drafted at 32 as a scorer, developed as a scorer but now has to earn his pay as a checker. That happens. There are only 180 "top 6" jobs in the NHL. There are 360 "top 6" players in the CHL, not to mention the NCAA, SEL, etc..
The other thing is there is no such problem as too much skill. You can always trade that to fill the holes in your lineup later.

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10-23-2012, 12:36 PM
  #517
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Originally Posted by AUAIOMRN View Post
They may play in the NHL, but won't become something that isn't easily replaceable.

At least that's the argument, I'm not taking either side.
So guys like Shawn Thornton are easily had? Guys like Kyle Clifford? People are quick to talk up the Kings, well they took their own pugilist that can play in the 2nd round too in Clifford. And from what I hear it sounds like Moroz might be the better skater of the two. Then you have a guy like Zack Kassian who we will need to have an answer for. Guys that are tough as nails and can play a regular shift are far from a dime a dozen.

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The other thing is there is no such problem as too much skill. You can always trade that to fill the holes in your lineup later.
The problem is that unless you have a REALLY good skilled player you aren't prying away the type of player that we drafted Moroz to be. We have a stocked prospect cupboard and most of our NHLers are very young, we need to start looking for player types that we need, it's obvious that Moroz types at the NHL level are hard to come by so we went out and drafted him.

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10-23-2012, 12:44 PM
  #518
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So guys like Shawn Thornton are easily had? Guys like Kyle Clifford? People are quick to talk up the Kings, well they took their own pugilist that can play in the 2nd round too in Clifford. And from what I hear it sounds like Moroz might be the better skater of the two. Then you have a guy like Zack Kassian who we will need to have an answer for. Guys that are tough as nails and can play a regular shift are far from a dime a dozen.



The problem is that unless you have a REALLY good skilled player you aren't prying away the type of player that we drafted Moroz to be. We have a stocked prospect cupboard and most of our NHLers are very young, we need to start looking for player types that we need, it's obvious that Moroz types at the NHL level are hard to come by so we went out and drafted him.
Shawn Thornton UFA. That's easy to be had is it not? I highly doubt back in 2007 teams were just lining up to sign him. Clifford, check just how much he was used when it mattered.

The Steve Otts of the world might be hard to acquire. Ben Eager's not so much.

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10-23-2012, 12:52 PM
  #519
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So guys like Shawn Thornton are easily had? Guys like Kyle Clifford? People are quick to talk up the Kings, well they took their own pugilist that can play in the 2nd round too in Clifford. And from what I hear it sounds like Moroz might be the better skater of the two. Then you have a guy like Zack Kassian who we will need to have an answer for. Guys that are tough as nails and can play a regular shift are far from a dime a dozen.
Well, Boston got Thornton by signing him as a UFA for 1.5M, which seems pretty "easy" to me.

(again, playing devil's advocate, I have no opinion on Moroz or Ewanyk as I hardly see them play)

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10-23-2012, 01:21 PM
  #520
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Originally Posted by AUAIOMRN View Post
Well, Boston got Thornton by signing him as a UFA for 1.5M, which seems pretty "easy" to me.

(again, playing devil's advocate, I have no opinion on Moroz or Ewanyk as I hardly see them play)
And besides Schultz how often are we #1 or #2 on UFA's list?

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10-23-2012, 01:35 PM
  #521
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The ideology behind drafting Moroz is wrong. Would you trade any of the following players for Moroz? Brandon Saad, Justin Faulk, Ryan O'Reilly, Slava Voynov, PK Subban, Jeff Petry, James Neal, Johan Fransson, Patrice Bergeron.

That is one player from each draft in since 2003 that was selected in the first half of the second round. You'd intentionally pass over that type of player for Moroz?
Good job cherry picking names to make your point. Anyone can do the same to make the contrary argument. I'm not saying you're wrong, just that no one knows (it's all speculation) and that you cherry picking guys who have turned out really well doesn't make your case.

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10-23-2012, 01:38 PM
  #522
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Originally Posted by joestevens29 View Post
Just to clarify I don't care if we draft a guy and he ends up in a bottom 6 role or a #5 d-man, but if that's what you are drafting in the 2nd round and don't think he has any better potential then that, then you have a problem on your hand.

Drafting Moreau 14th overall because he has grit, offense and defense but doesn't bring that offense to the NHL is okay.

Drafting Jacques 68th overall because he's big and has speed, but really has no more potential than a 3rd/4th line banger is pointless.
Excellent post. Couldn't say it better.

With an early second round pick the upside potential should be better than it is for this player. If its a later pick I have no problem. Its where we picked this that is the problem and I think most of us agree. If even the orgs upside on the player is as suggested above and you're using a 32nd post for a chance at that dispensible result then I discern difficulty with the drafting strategy. Thus the problem with not picking bpa with such a high pick.

Fact of the matter is the Oilers have discarded ACTUAL NHL players that represent higher upside then Moroz and have considered such players completely expendable. The chance that Moroz becomes an equal or better player than say Glencross is remote at best.


Last edited by Replacement: 10-23-2012 at 01:51 PM.
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10-23-2012, 01:49 PM
  #523
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Originally Posted by joestevens29 View Post
Just to clarify I don't care if we draft a guy and he ends up in a bottom 6 role or a #5 d-man, but if that's what you are drafting in the 2nd round and don't think he has any better potential then that, then you have a problem on your hand.

Drafting Moreau 14th overall because he has grit, offense and defense but doesn't bring that offense to the NHL is okay.

Drafting Jacques 68th overall because he's big and has speed, but really has no more potential than a 3rd/4th line banger is pointless.
So drafting someone because he's big and he has speed is pointless. You better pass this gem along to the 100's of scouts that are looking for precisely that. You seem to be cherry picking your stats and players so maybe these responses are lost on you. Nobody is saying Ewanyk or Moroz are locks as effective NHL players but when a team sees a deficiency in their minor league system the proactive thing to do is fill it. Maybe you are forgetting how badly the Oilers needed team toughness and grit a few years back and attempted to acquire it through FA i.e.. Eager and Sutton. And granted drafting Moroz with a 2nd rd. pick was and is risky but it was done out of necessity. My pick would have been Thrower as well and I was hoping for Samuelson but I think our scouts/system have been doing more diligent work recently and will remain hopeful.

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10-23-2012, 01:50 PM
  #524
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Originally Posted by joestevens29 View Post
Shawn Thornton UFA. That's easy to be had is it not? I highly doubt back in 2007 teams were just lining up to sign him. Clifford, check just how much he was used when it mattered.

The Steve Otts of the world might be hard to acquire. Ben Eager's not so much.
Clifford was injured in the 1st round of the playoffs (might have even been 1st game). Also, the reason the Kings were willing to trade Simmonds was because they felt Clifford could replace him, they obviously really value Clifford.

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10-23-2012, 01:51 PM
  #525
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Originally Posted by Replacement View Post
Excellent post. Couldn't say it better.

With an early second round pick the upside potential should be better than it is for this player. If its a later pick I have no problem. Its where we picked this that is the problem and I think most of us agree. If even the orgs upside on the player is as suggested above and you're using a 32nd post for a chance at that dispensible result then I discern difficulty with the drafting strategy. Thus the problem with not picking bpa with such a high pick.

Fact of the matter is the Oilers have completely discarded ACTUAL NHL players that represent higher upside then Moroz and have considered such players completely expendable. The chance that Moroz becomes a better player than say Glencross is remote at best.
The chance that ANY 2nd rounder becomes better than Glencross is remote.

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