I thought I would try to do a purely statistical analysis of Luongo's possible impact on the Leafs' playoff hopes.
Now there are a number of things to consider. First; Vancouver is a way better defensive team overall than the Leafs (duh). They might also have a better defensive unit in Edler, Hamuis, Bieksa, et all. Finally they have a better defensive system than the one Wilson chose to employ. We should therefore take the following numbers with a grain of salt.
In 2011 4 goalies saw time in net for the Leafs and these are their component stats.
James Reimer: 97(GA), 974(SV), .900(SV%)
Jonas Gustavvson: 112(GA), 1147(SV), .902(SV%)
Ben Scrivens: 35(GA), 359(SV), .903(SV%)
Jussi Rynass: 7(GA, 40(SV), .825(SV%)
That is a total of 251 goals allowed vs. 2520 shots against over the course of 82 games, or a collective .900 save percentage.
1 goal for every 10.04 saves
2 goals for every 20 saves
2.5 goals for every 25 saves
3 goals for every 30 saves
Now save percentage doesn't account for quality of shots against. But it should give us a general understanding of a goalie's level of efficiency.
Now let's look at Luongo's save efficiency over the last 4 years.
(2011) 55(GP) 127(GA) 1577(SV) .919(SV%)
(2010) 60(GP) 126(GA) 1753(SV) .928(SV%)
(2009) 68(GP) 167(GA) 1915(SV) .913(SV%)
(2008) 54(GP) 124(GA) 1542(SV) .920(SV%)
Four year composite: 544(GA) vs. 6787(SV) = 92.0(SV%)
Now how would that translate on a team like the Leafs who give up roughly 20-30 shots a game?
Based on the stats the difference between a .920 save percentage and a .900 save percentage given the same number of shots against is roughly 51 goals a year.
That is huge! Imagine giving up 51 less goals a year? Now the Leafs scored 226 goals in 2011 but they also gave up 251 goals against. Take away 51 goals and you have a +25 goal differential instead of a -25.
Now we should account for the fact that Luongo will not be making every start. He averaged about 59 starts a year for the Canucks over the last 4 years, though that number is somewhat low thanks to injuries and the pressence of Schneider.
With the Leafs he would likely play closer to 65 to 70 games a year (assuming health) with the backup (Reimer or Scrivens?) playing the remaining 12-17 games.
Lets go with a Luongo-Reimer tandem since "Optimus" has the longterm contract. How would their efficiency numbers theoretically translate?
Scenario 1:
Luongo 65 starts:
.920(SV%) the last 4 years
.793% of the starts and shots faced
He would face roughly 2197 shots
He can be expected to give up at least
176 goals against, which would be the most goals he's given up in a season since 2009.
Remier 17 starts:
.911(SV%) the last 2 years
.900(SV%) in 2011
.207% of the starts and shots faced
He would face roughly 574 shots
Reimer's save percentage over the last 3 years (.920) suggests that he would give up roughly
51 goals. His save percentage of last year would say
he gives up 57.
Add that to Luongo's 176 and the Leafs would have had a
-1 or -7 goal differential, depending on which one you think is the real Reimer.
Now if Luongo played 70 games instead of 65, the numbers obviously jump even more in our advantage.
Scenario 2:
Luongo 70 starts:
.920(SV%) the last 4 years
.854% of the starts and saves
He would face roughly 2366 shots
He can be expected to give up at least 189 goals against, which would be the most goals he's given up in a season since 2005 when he was with Florida.
Remier 12 starts:
.911(SV%) the last 3 years
.900(SV%) in 2011
.146% of the starts and saves
He would face roughly 405 shots
Reimer's save percentage over the last 3 years (.920) suggests that he would give up roughly
36 goals. His save percentage of last year would say he
gives up 40.
So you take these numbers and add them to the hypothetical Luongo number (189) and you wind up with either 225 or 229 goals against which would give you a
+1 or -3 goal differential.
Now it's impossible to determine the statistical correlation between wins and goal differential. The Leafs won 35 games and totaled 80 points with a -26 goal differential. The Senators made the Playoffs with only 6 more wins than the Leafs but had a +8 goal differential.
You would like to think that if flipped the goals for/against stat to the ones in the
Hypothetical Luongo Pythagorean Expectation (HLPE or HELP!
) it would help cover the 6 win 12 point spread.
For reference only 2 teams made the Playoffs with a negative goal differential Washington -8, and Florida -19, both in the relatively weaker Eastern conference.
Now the overall defence has to improve, but Luongo would lead to an almost 25 goal improvement (+1), which while not guaranteeing a playoff spot would put us a step ahead of last year.
