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Pavelec re-signs: 5 years / 3.9 cap hit

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Old
06-25-2012, 06:12 PM
  #76
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Originally Posted by Wpg Jets Fan View Post
So what's Chevy supposed to do ? Let him walk? Start the season with Gus and Mason, or trade for a legitimate started and lose our youthful core? He did the right thing, signing pavs was a must and the numbers fit!
Let him walk? Walk where? KHL? Only if you took that drivel seriously. I sure didn't. It was overpaid for potential. I am not sold on Pavelec as a top end starter, he has not proven much too date, IMO. He is just a 15-25 starter in the NHL, he might keep getting better, he might not. I used the Jon Quick comparison (who signed 3 years, 1.8million 2 years back) and it was a real good one, IMO. Not sure what Pavelec had over him. 5 years is a long time as well, would have rather a 2 year deal to maintain RFA status and some flexibility down the road. But overall it's not bad, just not great. A decent signing.

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06-25-2012, 06:13 PM
  #77
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Nice payczech.

Looks like they didn't wait for him to Czech himself before he wrecked himself.

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06-25-2012, 06:14 PM
  #78
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Have the Chevy quotes up as well.

Grabbing the audio from the studio tonight so we should have it later this evening or tomorrow morning at latest.

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06-25-2012, 06:19 PM
  #79
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I feel it is a little much on the money.
However i think it buys out a year or two of ufa status

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06-25-2012, 06:23 PM
  #80
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Originally Posted by Holden Caulfield View Post
Let him walk? Walk where? KHL? Only if you took that drivel seriously. I sure didn't. It was overpaid for potential. I am not sold on Pavelec as a top end starter, he has not proven much too date, IMO. He is just a 15-25 starter in the NHL, he might keep getting better, he might not. I used the Jon Quick comparison (who signed 3 years, 1.8million 2 years back) and it was a real good one, IMO. Not sure what Pavelec had over him. 5 years is a long time as well, would have rather a 2 year deal to maintain RFA status and some flexibility down the road. But overall it's not bad, just not great. A decent signing.
Quick's deal didn't buy any UFA time though correct?

Also, would a 2 year deal for Pav's still keep him as a RFA?

I think getting those UFA years is what makes the deal hard to compare to Quick.

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06-25-2012, 06:26 PM
  #81
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Not a good deal, not a bad deal, just the deal that needed to be made.

Now it's on Pavelec to live up to it though.

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06-25-2012, 06:34 PM
  #82
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I am not convinced Pavs is or will be an elite goaltender.

This should confirm what we know about his performance to date. He is below average for a starter in the NHL. The biggest reason this happened, there is no in our system.

http://www.arcticicehockey.com/2012/...nt-not-4m-year

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06-25-2012, 06:44 PM
  #83
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Good deal for the Jets long term.Throw away last years stats,if you watched the games,especially the roads games Pavs had a pretty weak small team in front of him.With Chevy changing that weak,small stuff Pavs will make the big saves and not have to worry about being run out of the rink and his numbers will improve for sure.

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06-25-2012, 06:46 PM
  #84
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I feel the deal is fair. Unfortunatley for Pav, to get to elite status he'll need his team to play strong defense infront of him. He'd have great numbers in LA, NyR etc.

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06-25-2012, 06:47 PM
  #85
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Originally Posted by pondnorth View Post
Good deal for the Jets long term.Throw away last years stats,if you watched the games,especially the roads games Pavs had a pretty weak small team in front of him.With Chevy changing that weak,small stuff Pavs will make the big saves and not have to worry about being run out of the rink and his numbers will improve for sure.
Why not throw them all away? It's all numbers. A goalies stops pucks. He has been average in his efforts. $3.9m speaks more about our limited options than how good of a goalie Pavelec is. Hopefully he continues to get better.

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06-25-2012, 06:49 PM
  #86
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Originally Posted by buyinnow View Post
I feel the deal is fair. Unfortunatley for Pav, to get to elite status he'll need his team to play strong defense infront of him. He'd have great numbers in LA, NyR etc.
How do you know that? He wasn't better than anyone that makes over $3m. The deal isn't fair based on relative performance. We have no one in the cupboard.

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06-25-2012, 06:51 PM
  #87
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Holden Caulfield View Post
Let him walk? Walk where? KHL? Only if you took that drivel seriously. I sure didn't. It was overpaid for potential. I am not sold on Pavelec as a top end starter, he has not proven much too date, IMO. He is just a 15-25 starter in the NHL, he might keep getting better, he might not. I used the Jon Quick comparison (who signed 3 years, 1.8million 2 years back) and it was a real good one, IMO. Not sure what Pavelec had over him. 5 years is a long time as well, would have rather a 2 year deal to maintain RFA status and some flexibility down the road. But overall it's not bad, just not great. A decent signing.
Mostly agree with everything you said here, especially from the standpoint that the KHL 'leveraging' was largely a crock, and I really hope Chevy saw through that in negotiating the contract. My feeling right now is that this was overpayment, not absolutely stupid overpayment, but overpayment nonetheless.

Having said that, I also am totally bewildered at a select number of people (present company excluded) that slag Pavelec, primarily on the basis of his save percentage. Seriously? He's a 24 year old goalie in his second year of being unquestioned starter, and has played brilliantly for the most part. I guess for some, a pedestrian save percentage that dropped as a result of an average first quarter and some blowout losses is a more important evaluation tool.


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Old
06-25-2012, 06:55 PM
  #88
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Originally Posted by supahdupah View Post
How do you know that? He wasn't better than anyone that makes over $3m. The deal isn't fair based on relative performance. We have no one in the cupboard.
The less quality scoring chances a goalie faces the better his numbers will be. Simple logic.

Relative performance? How? This isn't baseball.

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06-25-2012, 06:58 PM
  #89
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Originally Posted by Hank Chinaski View Post
Mostly agree with everything you said here, especially from the standpoint that the KHL 'leveraging' was largely a crock, and I really hope Chevy saw through that in negotiating the contract. My feeling right now is that this was overpayment, not absolutely stupid overpayment, but overpayment nonetheless.

Having said that, I also am totally bewildered at a select number of people (present company excluded) that slag Pavelec, primarily on the basis of his save percentage. Seriously? He's a 24 year old goalie in his second year of being unquestioned starter, and has played brilliantly for the most part. I guess a pedestrian save percentage that dropped as a result of an average first quarter and some blowout losses is more important evaluation tool..
Agreed. I think the actual payments are very fair. The only thing is were taking a gamble he contonies tobdevelope as if he reaches his potential in two years well be grossly under paying.


Essentially if pavs never develops this is a bad contract, not horrible, just bad. If pavs imrpoves a little its decent. If he improves a lot its great. This contract ia very balanced in my opinion

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06-25-2012, 07:03 PM
  #90
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Glad that's done. Paying a bit for potential, but I'm of the opinion that potential will be fulfilled. Fair deal IMHO, both sides seem happy, plus we lock up a couple of UFA years.

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06-25-2012, 07:12 PM
  #91
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Originally Posted by YWGinYYZ View Post
Glad that's done. Paying a bit for potential, but I'm of the opinion that potential will be fulfilled. Fair deal IMHO, both sides seem happy, plus we lock up a couple of UFA years.
I am too. Pavelec's not the type of guy to rest on a contract. He's a battler and is really, really driven to be the best. Good mental game and confidence, just needs work tightening up his game.

One thing that always encourages me is the folks at Goalie Guild (who know far more about goaltending than I ever will) are super high on him in terms of his ability and potential; they've said many times he has elite upside, and the attitude to get there.

It's a worthy gamble.

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06-25-2012, 07:16 PM
  #92
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I'm glad we got it done and I really think he will be a fantastic goalie for us. He has boat loads of natural ability and is mentally tough. The team hung him out to dry a number of games and the next game he's right back in there. I feel pretty confidant he will continue to improve and earn every one of those yearly raises.

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06-25-2012, 07:17 PM
  #93
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Originally Posted by buyinnow View Post
The less quality scoring chances a goalie faces the better his numbers will be. Simple logic.

Relative performance? How? This isn't baseball.
The stats do not back up your premiss.


Relative to his peers? They only compare players in baseball? who knew?

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06-25-2012, 07:26 PM
  #94
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Quote:
Originally Posted by supahdupah View Post
I am not convinced Pavs is or will be an elite goaltender.

This should confirm what we know about his performance to date. He is below average for a starter in the NHL. The biggest reason this happened, there is no in our system.

http://www.arcticicehockey.com/2012/...nt-not-4m-year
As much as the Pavelec homer in me wants to refute those AIH articles, they're pretty hard to argue with. Some valid points to be sure.

Going strictly based on the eyeball test though, I really like his chances of improving rapidly over the next few years. The demeanour, size and athleticism he has are all top notch, it's just a matter of refining his game a bit, getting him to play a more quiet style of goaltending.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Aerial View Post
One thing that always encourages me is the folks at Goalie Guild (who know far more about goaltending than I ever will) are super high on him in terms of his ability and potential; they've said many times he has elite upside, and the attitude to get there.
They've got some very solid and accurate analysis of goalies on that site. I'm a goalie junkie, and am constantly impressed by how well GG breaks stuff down.

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06-25-2012, 07:30 PM
  #95
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Originally Posted by supahdupah View Post
The stats do not back up your premiss.


Relative to his peers? They only compare players in baseball? who knew?
the only thing that the stats show is that Pav didn't have great stats. They don't explain why.

Using stats to compare baseball players is an effective tool because of the strong individual aspects of the game. Team mates don't affect a players stats as much as they do in hockey.

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06-25-2012, 07:30 PM
  #96
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It was a bit of a gamble on both parts....if we sign him for 2 year for 6 mil and continues to get better along with the team good luck getting him to ink away two years of UFA without giving him HUGE money

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06-25-2012, 07:36 PM
  #97
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Originally Posted by buyinnow View Post
the only thing that the stats show is that Pav didn't have great stats. They don't explain why.

Using stats to compare baseball players is an effective tool because of the strong individual aspects of the game. Team mates don't affect a players stats as much as they do in hockey.
oook. So stats don't matter. Got it. One thing bugs me though, stats measure the stuff the actually happen in games. How are you evaluating players? Artistic impression? Good thing scientists never use that voodoo.

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06-25-2012, 07:40 PM
  #98
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Great job by Chevy to sign Pavelec. He was easily the best player on the team last season & the heart of the team.

He should get Kane locked in & also bring in the Monster to back up Pavs.

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06-25-2012, 07:43 PM
  #99
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Originally Posted by supahdupah View Post
oook. So stats don't matter. Got it. One thing bugs me though, stats measure the stuff the actually happen in games. How are you evaluating players? Artistic impression? Good thing scientists never use that voodoo.
Stats are good for measuring how many goals get scored and how many shots get stopped, that's about it. All shots and all goals are equally scored. If in your world, all shots and all goals are equal, then you keep on believing that Brian Elliot is the best goaltender on the planet.

Have at it.

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06-25-2012, 07:45 PM
  #100
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Originally Posted by supahdupah View Post
Why not throw them all away? It's all numbers. A goalies stops pucks. He has been average in his efforts. $3.9m speaks more about our limited options than how good of a goalie Pavelec is. Hopefully he continues to get better.
So if we traded with LA ,Pavs for Quicky, the best goalie in hockey,Quick`s numbers would be the same here as they were in LA last season? Sometimes you got to throw the numbers out.

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