Based on some of the comparables, like Halak, Pavs is slightly overpaid and the contract is two years too long. IMO, a 3 year, 10 million contract would have been appropriate. As has been stated numerous times in this thread, we are paying for potential with this contract.
Can Pavs take his game to the next level (.920 SP, 2.4-2.5 GAA)? While both those hypothetical stats may be attributed to the future defense in front of him, a larger portion will be attributed to greater consistency on his part.
If he can reach those numbers and become a top - ten goalie it will be a good contract for the Jets. If he fails to improve on his 2011-2012 season over the next couple years it will be a bad contract plain and simple.
If he does reach those numbers in 3 years we would have to pay him BIG money to sign another two years because we would be bidding against every other NHL team to keep him around