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Sam Gagner's new deal/offer sheet target?

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06-26-2012, 11:54 AM
  #1
BowDangles
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Sam Gagner's new deal/offer sheet target?

What should the Oilers offer Sam Gagner this summer? He was getting paid 2.275mil last year and we qualified him so far.

How long is Sam RFA eligible for? I think he only has two more seasons until UFA, so I think the Oilers should sign him for one year than decide next year if he deserves the long term deal.

I would personally offer him around 3-3.5 mil for the year.

Elliott Friedman posted his 30 thoughts article and mentioned Sam Gagner as a offer sheet threat this summer. Anything between 3.3-5ish a year gets you a 1st and 3rd as compensation.

Here is the link http://www.cbc.ca/sports/hockey/opin...-thoughts.html

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06-26-2012, 11:57 AM
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OilerFan4Life
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Friedman is absolutely money and connected but he's just speculating here because of how many teams need centres.

Depending on the term, I'd let him walk.

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06-26-2012, 11:58 AM
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Skm
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I don't really see it happening, unless some team just wanted to screw the Oilers over. I wouldn't mind giving him $3M/year on a new deal so I would say anything south of $4M and the Oilers would match.

I mean it's hard to compare his value...Matt Duchene just got $3.5M but Stoll and Kelly both got around $3M.

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06-26-2012, 11:58 AM
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He's worth like 3 mil.

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06-26-2012, 11:59 AM
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BowDangles
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The big worry here is if someone offers him north of 4 for lets say 4 years than I don't think the Oilers would match it. Sure they would get a 1st and 3rd but that leaves that giant hole at 2C and doesn't fill any other holes for years to come...

Could be a crappy situation.

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06-26-2012, 12:04 PM
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Skm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BowDangles View Post
The big worry here is if someone offers him north of 4 for lets say 4 years than I don't think the Oilers would match it. Sure they would get a 1st and 3rd but that leaves that giant hole at 2C and doesn't fill any other holes for years to come...

Could be a crappy situation.
If a team is that desperate for an average #2C then they probably won't be the strongest team to begin with and the 1st rounder could be a decent pick. I would probably be inclined to let him go for that sheet but it would take some thinking about.

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06-26-2012, 12:11 PM
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I think $3M/yr over 3 years is reasonable.

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06-26-2012, 12:12 PM
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Just because a team tenders an offer sheet to a player does not mean that the Oilers have to match that sheet, the player in question actually has to sign it.

Can the offer sheet be referred to in contract negotiations as a possible value for a contract? of course it could, there are many factors that Sam would have to consider.

Here is one you should consider, take a look at the list of players that have signed an offer sheet in the last 15 or so years (feel free to google this yourself) and what they signed for. (Monster overpayment usually)

Here is a link to what the team gave up for Penner through the compensation of draft picks.

Trading him has netted us some nice prospects but no Full time NHL players yet.

http://oilacumen.blogspot.ca/2011/10...icks-from.html

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06-26-2012, 12:12 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Skm View Post
If a team is that desperate for an average #2C then they probably won't be the strongest team to begin with and the 1st rounder could be a decent pick. I would probably be inclined to let him go for that sheet but it would take some thinking about.
yep and then package that first with our first and scoop up someone beastly to play C. with 2 firsts we could trade for someone that would fit with our core and probably a decent dman as well.

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06-26-2012, 12:15 PM
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SilverHaireDevil
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yep and then package that first with our first and scoop up someone beastly to play C. with 2 firsts we could trade for someone that would fit with our core and probably a decent dman as well.
Next years Draft is supposed to be very deep, it would be hysterical if a pick from that offer sheet turned into a lottery pick.

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06-26-2012, 12:21 PM
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There's a possible issue with a new CBA on the way. UFA status will probably be a chip demaned by the NHLPA in order to reduce the share of revenues from 57% to 50-52%. That will probably mean players will be able to go to UFA after as few as 5 years in the league or 25 years old (it's currently 7 years or 27 years old).

With that in mind, Gagner actually has some leverage here. I think he's worth the gamble and worth giving a 4-5 year deal today for a cap hit at around 3.5M (realistically, he'll probably get more like 5M on the open market, given the insanity exhibited by GMs every summer.

I suspect we'll see him sign a one year deal for 2.75-3M and then hope that next season he becomes a UFA based on the new terms of the CBA. Then he can use his UFA status to get max dollars from the Oilers, or leave on his own terms.

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06-26-2012, 12:23 PM
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IMO you trade him so you don't have to get stuck with a bad contract. 2 years until UFA and if we wait until just 1 year is left his trade value goes down by a lot and that's assuming that he'd take a 1 year deal at this point which IMO I don't think that he'd do.

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06-26-2012, 12:29 PM
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Homesick
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SilverHaireDevil View Post
Next years Draft is supposed to be very deep, it would be hysterical if a pick from that offer sheet turned into a lottery pick.
YESSSSSSSS!
How many threads will be about Gagner being trouble in the locker room to tank his new team?

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06-26-2012, 12:31 PM
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I say they should either sign him to a one year deal for 3.5mil or a 3-4 year deal for 3mil a year.

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06-26-2012, 12:35 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BowDangles View Post
I say they should either sign him to a one year deal for 3.5mil or a 3-4 year deal for 3mil a year.
I agree with this. Although, I would go up to 5 years

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06-26-2012, 12:36 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Homesick View Post
YESSSSSSSS!
How many threads will be about Gagner being trouble in the locker room to tank his new team?
Can you tell a player to sign a 2 year offersheet, purposely tank the team, and then resign with us as a UFA once his deal expired?...

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06-26-2012, 12:39 PM
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blackwater
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hemsky4PM View Post
There's a possible issue with a new CBA on the way. UFA status will probably be a chip demaned by the NHLPA in order to reduce the share of revenues from 57% to 50-52%. That will probably mean players will be able to go to UFA after as few as 5 years in the league or 25 years old (it's currently 7 years or 27 years old).

With that in mind, Gagner actually has some leverage here. I think he's worth the gamble and worth giving a 4-5 year deal today for a cap hit at around 3.5M (realistically, he'll probably get more like 5M on the open market, given the insanity exhibited by GMs every summer.

I suspect we'll see him sign a one year deal for 2.75-3M and then hope that next season he becomes a UFA based on the new terms of the CBA. Then he can use his UFA status to get max dollars from the Oilers, or leave on his own terms.
Actually players can go UFA at age 25 right now, it's 7 years of league service. In our case, that would mean gagner is eligible for full UFA status in roughly 2 years. Anything more than 3 mill a year (3.5 max) is too much for sam right now. An offer sheet of 4 mill or upwards, and I say take the compensation and try to fill his spot as best you can through trades or within the organization.

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06-26-2012, 12:41 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SilverHaireDevil View Post
Next years Draft is supposed to be very deep, it would be hysterical if a pick from that offer sheet turned into a lottery pick.
Every draft seems to be deep right after the most recent one.

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06-26-2012, 12:42 PM
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oilersfan11
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What happens though if we let him walk from a offer sheet and we can't get anyone to sign here to replace him?



Hemsky-Hopkins-Eberle
Hall-Horcoff-Yakupov
Jones-Belanger-Petrell
Eager-Lander-Hordichuk

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06-26-2012, 12:46 PM
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If the offer sheet was too high, I'd take the picks and sign Wellwood.

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06-26-2012, 12:46 PM
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Originally Posted by joestevens29 View Post
Every draft seems to be deep right after the most recent one.

2013 looks real deep though even better than 2012.

Nathan Mackinnon
Seth Jones
Ryan Pulock
Alexsander Barkov
Sean Monahan
Hunter Shinkaruk
Rasmus Ristolainen
Curtis Lazar
Anthony Duclair
Eric Roy
Max Domi
Alex Forsberg
Kerby Rychel
Jonathan Drouin


All these players look to be top players in the long run.

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06-26-2012, 12:47 PM
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Fayne Gretzky
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RE: not re-signing Gagner

We run with a 1st, 2nd, and 2 4th lines, I guess. It's not a great plan but it's not horrible IMO.
I guess I'm a Horcoff fan though? I don't think he's the worst player, and if your team isn't at the cap or won't be soon, who cares what his cap hit is?

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06-26-2012, 12:49 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oilersfan11 View Post
What happens though if we let him walk from a offer sheet and we can't get anyone to sign here to replace him?



Hemsky-Hopkins-Eberle
Hall-Horcoff-Yakupov
Jones-Belanger-Petrell
Eager-Lander-Hordichuk
meh not as scary as you think considering Smyth, Paajarvi and Hartikainen would also be in the mix for roster spots. Adding another 1st+ for Gagner can make me digest Horc in top 6 or a player like Jokinen\Antropov on Oilers

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06-26-2012, 12:50 PM
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joestevens29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oilersfan11 View Post
2013 looks real deep though even better than 2012.

Nathan Mackinnon
Seth Jones
Ryan Pulock
Alexsander Barkov
Sean Monahan
Hunter Shinkaruk
Rasmus Ristolainen
Curtis Lazar
Anthony Duclair
Eric Roy
Max Domi
Alex Forsberg
Kerby Rychel
Jonathan Drouin


All these players look to be top players in the long run.
And similar things were suggested about yak, murray, reinhart, grigorenko, galchenyuk etc...

I'm not really scared of the offer sheet to be honest. Granted we could be in tight if someone makes a stupid offer, but I really think Gagner wants to be here and will get a decent deal done. He's been here through all the BS and now he'll get a chance to play full time with legit top 6 players for a whole year.

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06-26-2012, 12:50 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BowDangles View Post
What should the Oilers offer Sam Gagner this summer? He was getting paid 2.275mil last year and we qualified him so far.

How long is Sam RFA eligible for? I think he only has two more seasons until UFA, so I think the Oilers should sign him for one year than decide next year if he deserves the long term deal.

I would personally offer him around 3-3.5 mil for the year.

Elliott Friedman posted his 30 thoughts article and mentioned Sam Gagner as a offer sheet threat this summer. Anything between 3.3-5ish a year gets you a 1st and 3rd as compensation.

Here is the link http://www.cbc.ca/sports/hockey/opin...-thoughts.html
Has gagner used player elected arbitration yet? if not i wouldn't want a one year deal, because then he can easily get out after 2.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Bryanbryoil View Post
IMO you trade him so you don't have to get stuck with a bad contract. 2 years until UFA and if we wait until just 1 year is left his trade value goes down by a lot and that's assuming that he'd take a 1 year deal at this point which IMO I don't think that he'd do.
Trade him when? if you match the OS, you can't trade for a year.

Quote:
Originally Posted by BowDangles View Post
I say they should either sign him to a one year deal for 3.5mil or a 3-4 year deal for 3mil a year.
I think your being overly optmistic with the long term deal, i'd aim to get him on a 3-4 year deal and be willing to pay up to 4. 3.5 could probably get it done.

Not a fan of the one year deal if he has arb rights left.

Quote:
Originally Posted by blackwater View Post
Actually players can go UFA at age 25 right now, it's 7 years of league service. In our case, that would mean gagner is eligible for full UFA status in roughly 2 years. Anything more than 3 mill a year (3.5 max) is too much for sam right now. An offer sheet of 4 mill or upwards, and I say take the compensation and try to fill his spot as best you can through trades or within the organization.
only if they play 7 years. all players get it a 27.

hes suggesting the earlier of 5 years or 25

currently its the earlier or 7 years or 27.

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