HFBoards

Go Back   HFBoards > General Hockey Discussion > Free Agent Frenzy
Mobile Hockey's Future Become a Sponsor Site Rules Support Forum vBookie Page 2
Free Agent Frenzy Trade rumors, transactions, and free agent talk. Rumors must contain the word RUMOR in post title. Proposals must contain the word PROPOSAL in post title.

Burke and Leafs' goalie options could get interesting soon

Reply
 
Thread Tools
Old
06-27-2012, 01:17 PM
  #101
palindrom
Registered User
 
palindrom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 4,148
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tmash85 View Post
First of all, this is not a proper dependance analysis at all.

Second, even if you could use this list to indicate any kind of correlation, it certainly wouldn't be a negative correlation. Just looking at the list clearly shows you that eight playoff teams spent in the top 15 on goaltending and eight playoff teams spent in the bottom 15. The most accurate conclusion you could make then is that there is no correlation between goaltending spending and success.

Lastly, this analysis is far too simplified to provide any insight. It ignores so many factors such as:

Entry-level contracts: obviously LA spent the least on goaltending since both Quick and Bernier are very young and haven't cashed in yet. Re-visit this list in a two years and see if LA is still near the bottom.

Contracts signed in different free agent years: Sometimes the goalie UFA market is bare and so the mediocre get paid a bit more. Sometimes there are a plethora of goalies and so UFA's don't get quite as much.

Changing salary cap over seasons: A $4M goalie in 2012 looks like a bargain, but in 2006 it was a much higher payday. So you can't compare contracts simply by looking at the dollar value without considering what salary cap year they were signed in.

Injuries: Obviously if a team's starting netminder misses any significant time, the team's performance will suffer.
i appreciate your comment and it is noted, if i wish to invest more time in the topic, i will take your opinion into account. (or maybe next year, i plan to do this short analysis every year)

The fact that it cover all NHL teams (and since i studied it last season as well) cover the different scenario you enumerated.

Well, in my opinion the correlation is still there, it is negative, but we have to keep in mind that the correlation is a weak one. And its normal, we cant expect any factor like this to have a big impact on a team.

But the role of a gm is to try to push every small edge he can find (like this one) to make his team the best possible.

What i like to analyses is also the team that make a big offseason change in the $ they invested in goalie.

The flyers went from a team spending the less on their goalie to a team spending the most, with a not really significant slight negative result (PHI was a bit less successful than their past 2-3 year)

Florida and Phoenix had more success by letting Brygalov and Vokoun go for cheap replacement.

Of course Quick will get a raise, but LA still will have the choice between offering him 5 000 000$, or letting him go for a cheap mentor to Bernier. (or not a lot of choice, if Quick choose to leave as UFA

The fact that LA have elite goaltending performance for 1 800 000$ is a lot more about a consequence of their choices than a fortunate circumstance.
In 2009-2010 Vancouver had the choice to let Luongo hit UFA and give a chance to Schneider. They choose the expensive option.
Montreal choose to let Halak go instead of keeping him and giving him more $.


Last edited by palindrom: 06-27-2012 at 01:46 PM.
palindrom is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
06-27-2012, 01:19 PM
  #102
UniverStalinGraduate*
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 3,253
vCash: 500
What sort of offer sheet will they offer Schneider that

A) Wouldn't be potentially just as stupid and horrible when all is said and done as the Kessel trade, if not even worse

or

B) THe Nucks wouldn't match?

Keep in mind, offer sheet compensation is based on the first 5 years of salary, so no long term keeping the hit down to keep the compensation down either.

UniverStalinGraduate* is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
06-27-2012, 01:27 PM
  #103
palindrom
Registered User
 
palindrom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 4,148
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by UniverStalinGraduate View Post
What sort of offer sheet will they offer Schneider that

A) Wouldn't be potentially just as stupid and horrible when all is said and done as the Kessel trade, if not even worse

or

B) THe Nucks wouldn't match?

Keep in mind, offer sheet compensation is based on the first 5 years of salary, so no long term keeping the hit down to keep the compensation down either.
i think the one year Offer sheet is the most interesting option.

It allow Schneider to probably become UFA next summer. Giving him more control on his destiny and if he think he will do well next season, getting more $ next summer as UFA than what he would get now.
it put Vancouver in a situation where its harder to match it. (why match it, if Schneider could leave as UFA anyway).
And if Vancouver ever match it, Toronto could still have a shoot to sign Schneider as UFA next summer.


Last edited by palindrom: 06-27-2012 at 01:33 PM.
palindrom is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
06-27-2012, 01:48 PM
  #104
Tmash85
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2012
Posts: 26
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by palindrom View Post

Well, in my opinion the correlation is still there, it is negative, but we have to keep in mind that the correlation is a weak one. And its normal, we cant expect any factor like this to have a big impact on a team.
Even still I don't think you can make this conclusion based on the evidence you provided.

But let's say your conclusion is correct and there is a very weak negative correlation. What does this even prove? Correlation does not prove causation. Bad teams have to overpay for players because it's a less favorable destination for free agents, thus resulting in higher player salaries.

Also, you are cherry picking examples to prove your point while ignoring those that don't. You point to Florida and Phoenix and ignore teams like Edmonton, Toronto, Columbus, and others.

My point is that you can't draw any conclusions whatsoever looking simply at goaltender salary and wins. Just look at Tampa Bay. Same goaltending for the last two years. They went from a conference finalist to a bottom 10 team.

Tmash85 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
06-27-2012, 01:58 PM
  #105
dfunk
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2012
Posts: 375
vCash: 550
Quote:
Originally Posted by palindrom View Post
i think the one year Offer sheet is the most interesting option.

It allow Schneider to probably become UFA next summer. Giving him more control on his destiny and if he think he will do well next season, getting more $ next summer as UFA than what he would get now.
it put Vancouver in a situation where its harder to match it. (why match it, if Schneider could leave as UFA anyway).
And if Vancouver ever match it, Toronto could still have a shoot to sign Schneider as UFA next summer.
1 year, 7 mill. **** it.

dfunk is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
06-27-2012, 02:03 PM
  #106
mooseOAK*
 
Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 42,437
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by UniverStalinGraduate View Post
What sort of offer sheet will they offer Schneider that

A) Wouldn't be potentially just as stupid and horrible when all is said and done as the Kessel trade, if not even worse

or

B) THe Nucks wouldn't match?

Keep in mind, offer sheet compensation is based on the first 5 years of salary, so no long term keeping the hit down to keep the compensation down either.
What on God's green earth is horrible about the Kessel trade?

mooseOAK* is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
06-27-2012, 02:06 PM
  #107
palindrom
Registered User
 
palindrom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 4,148
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tmash85 View Post
Even still I don't think you can make this conclusion based on the evidence you provided.

But let's say your conclusion is correct and there is a very weak negative correlation. What does this even prove? Correlation does not prove causation. Bad teams have to overpay for players because it's a less favorable destination for free agents, thus resulting in higher player salaries.

Also, you are cherry picking examples to prove your point while ignoring those that don't. You point to Florida and Phoenix and ignore teams like Edmonton, Toronto, Columbus, and others.

My point is that you can't draw any conclusions whatsoever looking simply at goaltender salary and wins. Just look at Tampa Bay. Same goaltending for the last two years. They went from a conference finalist to a bottom 10 team.
My conclusion is based on more than this small post, i studied it since the lockout, i study a lot the goalie market as well.

The basic idea is: in the current goalie market (it was not like that 15 years ago) there is less difference between the 5 000 000+ and the 1 500 000$ goalie than the 5 000 000+ and 1500 000$ forward/defensemen. So the money is best invested elsewhere than in goaltending: you get more for your money if you invest it elsewhere. The NHL ranking and Goaltender performance show it since the past few year. (the correlation between a goalie $ and his performance is positive, but lesser than most expect and doesn't warrant to paid too much for a goalie.

About my cherry picking, Toronto had also more success this year with a cheap Reimer than with a 6 000 000$ Giguere

Edmonton and Colombus did no change at all in the $ they spend on goalie between last season and this season.


Last edited by palindrom: 06-27-2012 at 02:17 PM.
palindrom is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
06-27-2012, 02:06 PM
  #108
CommonMeans*
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Country: Canada
Posts: 2,319
vCash: 500
Why do the Leafs need their own thread in the general forums?

CommonMeans* is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
06-27-2012, 02:20 PM
  #109
Tmash85
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2012
Posts: 26
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by palindrom View Post

About my cherry picking, Toronto had also more success this year with a cheap Reimer than with a 6 000 000$ Giguere

Edmonton and Colombus did no change at all in the $ they spend on goalie between last season and this season.
They had 85 points last year, 80 points this year.

But that's beside the point, Giguere was essentially a backup last year after Reimer took over. If your argument is that a team is better off without a $6M backup, then yes I agree.

Tmash85 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
06-27-2012, 02:28 PM
  #110
palindrom
Registered User
 
palindrom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 4,148
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tmash85 View Post
They had 85 points last year, 80 points this year.

But that's beside the point, Giguere was essentially a backup last year after Reimer took over. If your argument is that a team is better off without a $6M backup, then yes I agree.
I was using the average Ranking of the past 2 season while Giguere (6 000 000$) /Toskala (4 000 000$) was there. (Reimier performance was a big part of the reason they did well in 2010-2011).

Well, we can all use single goalie to make a point, but i prefer to compile all their stats.

My general argument is: there is not enough difference in performance between high paid goalie and cheap one to warrant to paid too much for a goalie.

I didnt had time to compile this year stats and analyze the correlation between a goalie salary and his performance,...would you be interested to see it?

A quick look show that in the top 10 goalie in saves % (30gp+) only 2 earn 5 000 000$+ while 4 of them earn 2 000 000$ or less.
A quick look at the top 30 ppg forward? (30gp+) well, no many budget player there.


Last edited by palindrom: 06-27-2012 at 02:41 PM.
palindrom is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
06-27-2012, 02:34 PM
  #111
pullyoursocksup
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Country: Canada
Posts: 946
vCash: 500
until reimer and scrivens rise to the top? there is no indication either of them will ever rise to the top, yet burke continues to pump their tires and the fans follow suit. if i was a leafs fan i would be beyond frustrated with how burke continues to "believe" in them, and act like their goaltending isnt holding them back from advancing as a team.

pullyoursocksup is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
06-27-2012, 02:43 PM
  #112
mdobbs
Registered User
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
Country: Canada
Posts: 1,528
vCash: 6335
Quote:
Originally Posted by palindrom View Post
i think the one year Offer sheet is the most interesting option.

It allow Schneider to probably become UFA next summer. Giving him more control on his destiny and if he think he will do well next season, getting more $ next summer as UFA than what he would get now.
it put Vancouver in a situation where its harder to match it. (why match it, if Schneider could leave as UFA anyway).
And if Vancouver ever match it, Toronto could still have a shoot to sign Schneider as UFA next summer.
Why on earth would Schneider sign a one year contract??

If I'm Schneider I can get a guaranteed multi-year deal now. There's no sense waiting when he's still not a wholly proven commodity.

mdobbs is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
06-27-2012, 03:00 PM
  #113
palindrom
Registered User
 
palindrom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 4,148
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by mdobbs View Post
Why on earth would Schneider sign a one year contract??

If I'm Schneider I can get a guaranteed multi-year deal now. There's no sense waiting when he's still not a wholly proven commodity.
Here is some reason:

1.One year bring him to UFA status next summer.
2.As a UFA he will have more choice of team.
3.Teams will be a lot more willing to give him more $ if there is no compensation
4.of course he can get more security now if he can have a long term contract, but if himself expect to have a good season, his value can increase, its a gamble he could take.
5. A new CBA could change many parameter and allow different type of contract..again its a gamble to sign a long contract now.
6. If Vancouver match a long term offer, we never know what can happen, he could share time with Luongo for many years....

7.these reason partly explain why Historically many contract come to a term at the same time a player become UFA eligible.


Last edited by palindrom: 06-27-2012 at 03:09 PM.
palindrom is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Forum Jump


Bookmarks

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 08:12 PM.

monitoring_string = "e4251c93e2ba248d29da988d93bf5144"
Contact Us - HFBoards - Archive - Privacy Statement - Terms of Use - Advertise - Top - AdChoices

vBulletin Copyright ©2000 - 2015, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
HFBoards.com is a property of CraveOnline Media, LLC, an Evolve Media, LLC company. 2015 All Rights Reserved.