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06-28-2012, 04:55 AM
  #1
letmesleep
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Optimistic About Free Agency

I'm quite optimistic about how free agency will work out for the Blues this year and it is largely because of the numbers.

The tentative salary cap announced for next season is about $70M, leading to a cap minimum of $54M. The Blues are sitting at $42M in cap payroll for next year. Oshie, Perron, and Nichol should get locked up for about $8M total (4M, 3M, 1M). That gives us a cap hit of about $50M which leaves us still $4 short of the cap floor. I have little doubt that Armstrong is authorized to spend, maybe, $4 more than the cap floor, perhaps? That leaves us with about $8M to play with (and only one or two holes to fill).

$8M should be enough to be competitive for Suter, should it not? If management doesn't target Suter, it is more than enough to sign Garrison. Signing Garrison and a 3C should be possible with that amount of money. Really, $8M is a ton of space to be creative with. And don't forget, we would need to take on at least $4 just to make it to the cap floor! Really, the possibilities are nearly endless.

Anyway, I realize I'm making a lot of assumptions when it comes to the numbers but I wanted to share why I'm looking forward (with my fingers crossed) to July 1st.

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06-28-2012, 05:39 AM
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Alklha
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I don't think there is any chance we'll see a $70m cap. The owners aren't going to back down and continue with the current agreement.

Also, we are currently at a shade over $42m on the cap. Add Tarasenko, Perron and Oshie and that could very well take the cap hit to $53m and still have a LHD and C to add. We'll have no issues being at the cap floor whatever the cap is.

I'm sure we'll talk to Suter, but the reality is that we are going to see a significant salary increase in a years time and that has to be factored into any contracts handed out. I still think w'll spend if there is a deal to be had, but I don't see us handing out a bad contract just to address a need and spend money that may be available. We'll go down the trade route if players demand too much in FA.

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06-28-2012, 05:51 AM
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"Quite optimistic" about free agency could be an unrealistic hope.

The Blues don't have a ton of money to spend. And they can't blow up their whole salary structure by taking on a big-money contract from the outside.

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06-28-2012, 06:02 AM
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5 x 5 for Garrison should be easy, frankly.

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06-28-2012, 07:01 AM
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After seeing what Wideman signed for with Calgary I'm not optimistic about an impact FA signing. Hope I'm wrong.

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06-28-2012, 09:52 AM
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The Tarasenko numbers help the Blues get to the floor on paper, but they probably don't represent nearly that much real salary against the team's budget. That works to the Blues favor, and may allow us to see the Blues spend a bit more than some projections. At any rate, its hard to fathom the team not being willing to spend a couple million / year more to get the player they really need right now when the window is finally open. This is the moment the team has been building toward since the lockout. If they lowball it now and miss their chance.....I just don't see how the team leadership is going to be that obtuse.

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06-28-2012, 10:50 AM
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I am "realistic" about free agency. Give the organization one more year of trimming some fat and controlling some player salaries and then we fans can really start to froth about potential high-level free agents.

Patience butterfly.

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06-28-2012, 11:09 AM
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I just read the NHL.com Central Division free agent preview, and they believe that we have a shot to land Shane Doan. If we can land a good left-handed D plus Doan (depending on if we sign Perron and Oshie), then I really like our roster. Thoughts on Doan?

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06-28-2012, 11:17 AM
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I'd like Doan but we have so many wingers already.

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06-28-2012, 11:29 AM
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So I understand that Oshie and Perron will be restricted free agents Sunday, if they are not signed by then. Does that mean that other teams can only offer qualifying-offers to those players? And we have the option to match those offers, correct? How long do we have with Oshie and Perron if they aren't re-signed by us, and they don't receive qualifying-offers from other teams? I hope I'm making some sense in my questions.

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06-28-2012, 12:05 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BleedBlue42 View Post
So I understand that Oshie and Perron will be restricted free agents Sunday, if they are not signed by then. Does that mean that other teams can only offer qualifying-offers to those players? And we have the option to match those offers, correct? How long do we have with Oshie and Perron if they aren't re-signed by us, and they don't receive qualifying-offers from other teams? I hope I'm making some sense in my questions.
Both Oshie and Perron already have qualifying offers from the Blues. Another team can make them an offer but the Blues can match it if they want and keep the player. If not they go to that team and depending on the money involved the Blues get picks.

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06-28-2012, 12:08 PM
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The only successful offer sheeting since the lockout was Dustin Penner by Edmonton.

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06-28-2012, 12:17 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BleedBlue42 View Post
So I understand that Oshie and Perron will be restricted free agents Sunday, if they are not signed by then. Does that mean that other teams can only offer qualifying-offers to those players? And we have the option to match those offers, correct? How long do we have with Oshie and Perron if they aren't re-signed by us, and they don't receive qualifying-offers from other teams? I hope I'm making some sense in my questions.
Other teams could offer Oshie or Perron whatever they want. There is no limit but yes, the Blues would have the right to match any offer. If they didn't match the offer, they would be compensated with draft picks based on how much Oshie/Perron was signed for. That compensation table will likely. E released either tomorrow or Sat. That said, the offer sheet scenario very rarely happens. Expect Army to re-sign both Oshie and Perron. As for timing, Army technically has until infinity to get them signed. If no other team signs them to an offer sheet, Army can sign them whenever - tomorrow, mid-summer, a day before camp opens or a yr from now (theoretically if Oshie or Perron were to stupidly hold out for some reason).

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06-28-2012, 03:09 PM
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letmesleep
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Alklha View Post
I don't think there is any chance we'll see a $70m cap. The owners aren't going to back down and continue with the current agreement.

Also, we are currently at a shade over $42m on the cap. Add Tarasenko, Perron and Oshie and that could very well take the cap hit to $53m and still have a LHD and C to add. We'll have no issues being at the cap floor whatever the cap is.

I'm sure we'll talk to Suter, but the reality is that we are going to see a significant salary increase in a years time and that has to be factored into any contracts handed out. I still think w'll spend if there is a deal to be had, but I don't see us handing out a bad contract just to address a need and spend money that may be available. We'll go down the trade route if players demand too much in FA.
Ahh, I forgot that Tarasenko's contract wasn't included on CapGeek yet. That certainly changes things a bit. Thanks for the heads-up.

In general, I wasn't trying to say that we will sign Suter or Garrison come July 1st. I was just trying to point out that Armstrong has room to work his magic and I'm sure he will when the time is right.

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06-28-2012, 03:36 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PocketNines View Post
5 x 5 for Garrison should be easy, frankly.
Dennis Wideman just got 5.2 x 5

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06-28-2012, 04:03 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Inglorious One View Post
Dennis Wideman just got 5.2 x 5
I'm not sure what you're saying. I was saying the Blues should be easily able to afford 5x5 for Garrison. I am aware of Wideman's contract. I don't know how this bears on Garrison though. Wideman was making 4.5M last year and had a big offensive season.

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06-28-2012, 04:11 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PocketNines View Post
I'm not sure what you're saying. I was saying the Blues should be easily able to afford 5x5 for Garrison. I am aware of Wideman's contract. I don't know how this bears on Garrison though. Wideman was making 4.5M last year and had a big offensive season.
I don't think Garrison will get less than Wideman.

As for being able to afford 5x5 yeah, I agree. I thought you were saying 5x5 will get Garrison easily. My misunderstanding on that front.

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06-28-2012, 06:00 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Inglorious One View Post
I don't think Garrison will get less than Wideman.

As for being able to afford 5x5 yeah, I agree. I thought you were saying 5x5 will get Garrison easily. My misunderstanding on that front.
I'd be surprised if he does. Wideman is a more established player. I think they're in the same neighborhood for salary, though. Calgary must have not seen that shoot-out attempt.

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06-28-2012, 06:15 PM
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I don't think The Blues will be willing to pay out $25 million for Garrison over 5 years. No Suter, no Garrison. No Bouwmeester.

It will be interesting (I hope) to see what Armstrong will do (unless he does nothing).

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06-28-2012, 08:07 PM
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Originally Posted by Robb_K View Post
I don't think The Blues will be willing to pay out $25 million for Garrison over 5 years. No Suter, no Garrison. No Bouwmeester.

It will be interesting (I hope) to see what Armstrong will do (unless he does nothing).
I honestly can't see Armstrong doing "nothing" in free agency. He might not sign a Big Sexy free agent like Suter, or even Garrison, but I'm confident that there will be some kind of move, or moves, made.

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06-28-2012, 09:33 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BleedBlue42 View Post
I just read the NHL.com Central Division free agent preview, and they believe that we have a shot to land Shane Doan. If we can land a good left-handed D plus Doan (depending on if we sign Perron and Oshie), then I really like our roster. Thoughts on Doan?
If he played center, I would be all for it. It would basically be upgrading over Arnott, while keeping the veteran leadership. However, another winger just takes up another roster spot. I'd love to have him on the team, I just don't see where he fits.

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