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Advanced stats say Sabres should consider dealing Ennis

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06-28-2012, 06:51 PM
  #151
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Originally Posted by Jame View Post
seriously... what the **** are you talking about???

08-09 --> 64gms 31g 26a 57pts (82gm pace of 40g 33a 73pts)
the year Ryan finished 2nd in Calder voting (the year they mistakenly gave it to Steve Mason )
vs
10-11 --> 82gms 20g 29a 49pts
the year Ennis finished 11th in Calder voting
I meant first season, not rookie season (lolNHL). My mistake. Also Mason deserved it, despite the mess he turned into.

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06-28-2012, 06:54 PM
  #152
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Originally Posted by ColonelForbin View Post
I'm just pointing out that a huge part of Ryan's trade value is due to his size and hit total. There's no way to measure the impact those things have on a game.
Its actually based more on his goal scoring.

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06-28-2012, 06:54 PM
  #153
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fatal System Ehrhoff View Post
http://www.hockey-reference.com/play...order_by=goals

Interesting things:

Ryan's 9 in goals, but 18 in G/G (Right behind Vanek at 17). That's not an indictment of course, instead a celebration of his health over the past four years.

Matt Moulson is at 24 in G/G. So underrated.

AO's still over Crosby in G/G over the past 4 years despite his recent decline
are we missing 2008 in there?

im only interested in goal totals over a 4 year span... i can make tim connolly look like a productive player over a 4 year span, using per game

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06-28-2012, 06:55 PM
  #154
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Originally Posted by Jame View Post
are we missing 2008 in there?

im only interested in goal totals over a 4 year span... i can make tim connolly look like a productive player over a 4 year span, using per game
It's the past 4 seasons, unless you think Ryan played 300 games in 3.

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06-28-2012, 06:56 PM
  #155
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Originally Posted by joshjull View Post
No he didn't. Playing in the top 6 with 50% of your shifts on the top line is not a cushier set up than Ennis'. Its actually much tougher



No it wasn't. Ryan's rookie year was the 08-09 season and that season was far better than Ennis' 20g 49pt rookie year.
Didn't Ryan spend much of his rookie season playing with Getzlaf and Perry? Getzlaf had 91 points during the 08-09' season. I wonder how much better Ennis would have done during his rookie season with an elite center.

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06-28-2012, 06:59 PM
  #156
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Originally Posted by joshjull View Post
Its actually based more on his goal scoring.
its a combination.

he's a goal scoring 1st line power forward who plays a 200 foot power forward game.... in other words... he's perfect

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06-28-2012, 07:01 PM
  #157
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Originally Posted by joshjull View Post
Its actually based more on his goal scoring.
Which brings up another interesting topic. Is a 30-35 player more valuable than a 20-45 player?

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06-28-2012, 07:02 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ColonelForbin View Post
Which brings up another interesting topic. Is a 30-35 player more valuable than a 20-45 player?
All other things equal, absolutely.

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06-28-2012, 07:05 PM
  #159
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ColonelForbin View Post
Which brings up another interesting topic. Is a 30-35 player more valuable than a 20-45 player?
I like HR's way of looking at this:

Quote:
Goals created; calculated by adding goals scored to 0.5 times assists, then multiplying by team goals divided by team goals plus 0.5 times team assists. For example in 2006-07, Sidney Crosby had 36 goals and 84 assists. The Penguins as a team had 267 goals and 468 assists. Thus Crosby is credited with (36 + 0.5 * 84) * (267 / (267 + 0.5 * 468)) = 41.57 goals created. Note that the sum of player goals created is equal to the sum of player goals scored for all teams.

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06-28-2012, 07:05 PM
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Originally Posted by ColonelForbin View Post
Didn't Ryan spend much of his rookie season playing with Getzlaf and Perry? Getzlaf had 91 points during the 08-09' season. I wonder how much better Ennis would have done during his rookie season with an elite center.
He played 45% of his shifts 5 on 5 with Getzlaf and 37.1% with Andrew Ebbet.

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06-28-2012, 07:06 PM
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Originally Posted by joshjull View Post
He played 45% of his shifts 5 on 5 with Getzlaf and 37.1% with Andrew Ebbet.
Source? I believe you of course but want to bookmark it.

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06-28-2012, 07:07 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ColonelForbin View Post
Which brings up another interesting topic. Is a 30-35 player more valuable than a 20-45 player?
Quote:
Originally Posted by thefifagod View Post
All other things equal, absolutely.
that's an important distinction... because in most comparisons... all other things are NOT equal.

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06-28-2012, 07:09 PM
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Originally Posted by Fatal System Ehrhoff View Post
Source? I believe you of course but want to bookmark it.
behindthenet
player toi

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06-28-2012, 07:09 PM
  #164
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fatal System Ehrhoff View Post
Source? I believe you of course but want to bookmark it.
http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_time_...24+25+26+27+28

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06-28-2012, 07:09 PM
  #165
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fatal System Ehrhoff View Post
I like HR's way of looking at this:
That is a cool stat, never heard of that.

However according to that, Cheechoo was more valuable than Joe Thornton the year Cheechoo scored 50+ goals.

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06-28-2012, 07:12 PM
  #166
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Originally Posted by joshjull View Post
Huh, I never thought to use it that way, thanks!


3 of his 4 top linemates were all-star forwards.

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06-28-2012, 07:12 PM
  #167
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Originally Posted by ColonelForbin View Post
Which brings up another interesting topic. Is a 30-35 player more valuable than a 20-45 player?
Its an interesting question but Ennis is not a 20g 45a guy at this point. He is a 20 29 guy so far.


Is a 31+ 34 guy with size that uses it more valuable than a 20 29 guy thats undersized?

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06-28-2012, 07:13 PM
  #168
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Is a 31+ 34 guy with size that uses it more valuable than a 20 29 guy thats undersized?
Of course, but at least in my case that's not the issue.

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06-28-2012, 07:17 PM
  #169
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Originally Posted by Fatal System Ehrhoff View Post
Huh, I never thought to use it that way, thanks!


3 of his 4 top linemates were all-star forwards.
Which means he faced much tougher defenders than Ennis.

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06-28-2012, 07:20 PM
  #170
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is it "biased" to talk about the probability that Ennis is more prone to injuries? (because of his size/weight)

is that Malone play something to take into consideration?

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06-28-2012, 07:20 PM
  #171
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Originally Posted by joshjull View Post
Its an interesting question but Ennis is not a 20g 45a guy at this point. He is a 20 29 guy so far.


Is a 31+ 34 guy with size that uses it more valuable than a 20 29 guy thats undersized?
Yes, but I don't think the way you framed that was fair to Ennis. Why give Ryan a positive modifier and Ennis a negative one? How about a guy with size that uses it vs. a guy with game-breaking speed who can back opposing defenses up?

As far as the production part of things, you're right that Ryan is much more proven. But Ryan has played two seasons since his sophomore season, and has basically proven himself to be a 65 point player over that time.

I don't think it's overly optimistic to think Ennis will be a 65 point player over the next two seasons.

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06-28-2012, 07:21 PM
  #172
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Originally Posted by Fatal System Ehrhoff View Post
Huh, I never thought to use it that way, thanks!


3 of his 4 top linemates were all-star forwards.
yes, he played on a grown ups line

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06-28-2012, 07:21 PM
  #173
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Which means he faced much tougher defenders than Ennis.
And had at the very least one hall of famer and one MVP to play with. Add to that the fact that he wasn't at all relied upon defensively and it's pretty comparable if not in Ennis' favor.


You can't say that Heatley-Spezza-Alfie was a tough position for Spezza's sophomore year regardless of the D they played against.

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06-28-2012, 07:22 PM
  #174
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yes, he played on a grown ups line
5 to 1 Ennis puts up 60 points playing between Vanek and Pominville all year, much less a future HOF player or MVP along with a top-10 C. Either one of his top two linemates would be by far the best player on the Sabres over the span of Ennis' career.

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06-28-2012, 07:23 PM
  #175
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Originally Posted by Fatal System Ehrhoff View Post
5 to 1 Ennis puts up 60 points playing between Vanek and Pominville all year, much less a future HOF player or MVP along with a top-10 C.
5 to 1, Ennis wont be put in that position

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