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Advanced stats say Sabres should consider dealing Ennis

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Old
06-28-2012, 07:25 PM
  #176
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jame View Post
5 to 1, Ennis wont be put in that position
"I'll give Luke Adam a shot but not Tyler Ennis!"

LindyRuff.txt

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06-28-2012, 07:25 PM
  #177
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jame View Post
is it "biased" to talk about the probability that Ennis is more prone to injuries? (because of his size/weight)

is that Malone play something to take into consideration?
I've been mentioning it for a couple days....

He's not built like the undersized guys who last.... He's not tall, and skinny.

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06-28-2012, 07:27 PM
  #178
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fatal System Ehrhoff View Post
"I'll give Luke Adam a shot but not Tyler Ennis!"

LindyRuff.txt
Adam was an accident. a failure of roster management

Ennis was succesful in a very specific role, i expect him to be used identically.

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06-28-2012, 07:28 PM
  #179
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jame View Post
Adam was an accident. a failure of roster management

Ennis was succesful in a very specific role, i expect him to be used identically.
Of course. But given the scenario of two all-stars on his line I have no doubt Ennis would score 60 points.

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06-28-2012, 07:29 PM
  #180
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Karate Johnson View Post
I've been mentioning it for a couple days....

He's not built like the undersized guys who last.... He's not tall, and skinny.
i feel like it has to be a part of this conversation... so that when he goes off for 17 points in the first 20 games... and then gets injured for the year... you know we can refute the points per game argument with "we told you so"

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06-28-2012, 07:30 PM
  #181
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fatal System Ehrhoff View Post
Of course. But given the scenario of two all-stars on his line I have no doubt Ennis would score 60 points.
You don't think Ryan has anything to do with his linemates numbers? 30 goals seasons are 30 goal seasons, regardless of who's setting you up.

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06-28-2012, 07:30 PM
  #182
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Eh, the Habs roster stays healthy :V

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06-28-2012, 07:32 PM
  #183
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Myllz View Post
You don't think Ryan has anything to do with his linemates numbers? 30 goals seasons are 30 goal seasons, regardless of who's setting you up.
Sure. But in the same way Getzlaf and Perry were excellent players before Ryan and will remain so after he leaves. If you had put 2011-12 Ennis on a line with 2008-09 Perry and Getzlaf I'd argue he has similar production.

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06-28-2012, 07:34 PM
  #184
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fatal System Ehrhoff View Post
Of course. But given the scenario of two all-stars on his line I have no doubt Ennis would score 60 points.
you should have some doubt, since ennis has never proven capable of producing consistent offense when facing chara-boychuk on every shift.

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06-28-2012, 07:34 PM
  #185
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jame View Post
i feel like it has to be a part of this conversation... so that when he goes off for 17 points in the first 20 games... and then gets injured for the year... you know we can refute the points per game argument with "we told you so"
Last three seasons, number of games played:

St. Louis: 82, 82, 77

Malone: 69, 54, 68

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06-28-2012, 07:36 PM
  #186
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ColonelForbin View Post
Last three seasons, number of games played:

St. Louis: 82, 82, 77

Malone: 69, 54, 68
were you trying to make a selective point?
or were you going to post the last 4 years of Briere vs Hartnell next?

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06-28-2012, 07:41 PM
  #187
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jame View Post
were you trying to make a selective point?
or were you going to post the last 4 years of Briere vs Hartnell next?
You can handpick any two players to show a point...

What would be interesting is if someone did a study of size (height, weight, and/or BMI) vs # games missed to injury to see if there's any correlation.

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06-28-2012, 07:42 PM
  #188
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jame View Post
were you trying to make a selective point?
or were you going to post the last 4 years of Briere vs Hartnell next?
You can find examples both ways. You were making it sound like it was fact that smaller players miss more games.

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06-28-2012, 07:42 PM
  #189
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jame View Post
you should have some doubt, since ennis has never proven capable of producing consistent offense when facing chara-boychuk on every shift.
He's never had one of the greatest players of all time to take heat off of him either. Let's assume that he's a decent enough playmaker to put two all-stars to decent enough use. They practically did all the work this year themselves.

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06-28-2012, 07:43 PM
  #190
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GrigsAndGirgs View Post
You can handpick any two players to show a point...

What would be interesting is if someone did a study of size (height, weight, and/or BMI) vs # games missed to injury to see if there's any correlation.
I think the low number of players at Ennis' size would throw off any findings relative to the rest.

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06-28-2012, 07:49 PM
  #191
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fatal System Ehrhoff View Post
I think the low number of players at Ennis' size would throw off any findings relative to the rest.
There could be a sample size issue, that is true.

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06-28-2012, 08:15 PM
  #192
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Ennis as a top 6 player

10-11 --> 82gms 20g 29a 49pts
11-12 --> 34gms 7g 8a 15pts

Ennis as our 3rd line center

11-12 --> 14gms 8g 11a 19pts


I fail to see how his high production as our 3rd line center in 14gms (really 12) some how puts him on the same level as Bobby Ryan who has averaged 35g 65pts the last 4 years and every one of those years as a top 6 player.



The funny thing is, Ennis was a top 6 center for 13gms prior to the deadline. Ruff put him at center on his 2nd return from injury. Roy and Ennis were our clearcut top 6 centers with Goose centering the 3rd line. Yet no one seems to bring this stretch of games up.

His numbers in those 13gms 3g 4a 7pts. Pretty much the level of production he had last year. Then he has a few games back at wing when hodgson first arrives. Then the 12gm spurt thats made him the second comng of Briere for some, while he was on the 3rd line.

Top 6 center with Roy --------> 13gms 3g 4a 7pts
3rd center in a 3 line setup ---> 14gms 8g 11a 19pts with Foligno added to his line as well.


If the clearcut difference in his production in the two different center setups plus the additon of Foligno doesn't show how much that helped him. Then folks just don't want to know the truth.


Last edited by joshjull: 06-28-2012 at 08:27 PM.
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06-28-2012, 08:20 PM
  #193
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Quote:
Originally Posted by joshjull View Post
Ennis as a top 6 player

10-11 --> 82gms 20g 29a 49pts
11-12 --> 34gms 7g 8a 15pts

Ennis as our 3rd line center

11-12 --> 14gms 8g 11a 19pts


I fail to see how his high production as our 3rd line center in 14gms (really 12) some how puts him on the same level as Bobby Ryan who has averaged 35g 65pts the last 4 years and every one of those years as a top 6 player.



The funny thing is, Ennis was a top 6 center for 13gms prior to the deadline. Ruff put him at center on his 2nd return from injury. Roy and Ennis were our clearcut top 6 centers with Goose centering the 3rd line. Yet no one seems to bring this stretch of games up.

His numbers in thsoe 13gms 3g 4a 7pts. Pretty much the level of production he had last year. Then he has a few games back at wing when hodgson first arrives. Then the 12gm spurt thats made him the second comng of Briere for some, while he was on the 3rd line.

Top 6 center with Roy --------> 13gms 3g 4a 7pts
3rd center in a 3 line setup ---> 14gms 8g 11a 19pts


If the clearcut difference in his production in his two different stints at center doesn't show how much that 3 center line up helped him. Then folks just don't want to know the truth.
Prove he was the 3rd line center during that 14 game stretch. What are you basing that on? How was Hodgson a top-six center during those games and Ennis wasn't? Because he was playing with Vanek? Vanek was mediocre at the end of the season.

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06-28-2012, 08:21 PM
  #194
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Ever think Foligno's abnormally high shooting percentage contributed to that line's poor Corsi? It's not like Marcus/Stafford (or even Ennis) are poor puck possession wingers and that line was beastly in transition.

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06-28-2012, 08:27 PM
  #195
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Quote:
Originally Posted by struckbyaparkedcar View Post
Ever think Foligno's abnormally high shooting percentage contributed to that line's poor Corsi? It's not like Marcus/Stafford (or even Ennis) are poor puck possession wingers and that line was beastly in transition.
Who are you addressing?

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06-28-2012, 08:37 PM
  #196
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Originally Posted by joshjull View Post
Who are you addressing?
General statement/mostly the article itself. Talking about a player's abnormally high shooting percentage then turning around and bashing their Corsi just seems dumb to me. Also, I don't like how the article's central point is based on a straw-man, because nobody here worth their salt is calling Ennis a #1 center right now.

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06-28-2012, 08:43 PM
  #197
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Originally Posted by ColonelForbin View Post
Prove he was the 3rd line center during that 14 game stretch. What are you basing that on? How was Hodgson a top-six center during those games and Ennis wasn't? Because he was playing with Vanek? Vanek was mediocre at the end of the season.
Its not about Hodgson its about Vanek.

Other teams look at that roster and in order worry about the Roy line, Hodgson's line and then Ennis'.

The problem is you're looking at this with the hindsight of what they did as opposed to what they were when first put together. You're also letting your biases against certain players color your take.


The Roy line got the tougher matchups. As hated as he is on on board he is still respected as a scoring threat and is the clearcut top center of the 3 we have. Put with Pommer and thats the #1 focus of the other teams.

The next line Has Hodgson, who up to this point is considered the better center between he and Ennis (primarily since Ennis at center was a novelty at this point) and Vanek who is better than anyone on the Ennis line and is viewed as such around the league.

You forget that when they were put together Foligno was a nobody just called up, Ennis wasn't anything special at center yet and Stafford isn;t enough to draw better defenders. Thats not a line a team is going to worry about right away.

If what Ennis's line did in those 12gms had happened in November. Then you would have seen teams start adjusting to them to try and stop them. Or if we had made the playoffs our opponent would have made an attempt to address them.


Last edited by joshjull: 06-28-2012 at 08:51 PM.
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06-28-2012, 08:52 PM
  #198
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Quote:
Originally Posted by joshjull View Post
Its not about Hodgson its about Vanek.

Other teams look at that roster and in order worry about the Roy line, Hodgson's line and then Ennis'.

The problem is you're looking at this with the hindsight of what they did as opposed to what they were when first put together. You're also letting your biases against certain players color your take.


The Roy line got the tougher matchups. As hated as he is on on board he is still respected as a scoring threat and is the clearcut top center of the 3 we have.

The next line Has Hodgson, who up to this point is considered the better center between he and Ennis (primarily since Ennis at center was a novelty at this point) and Vanek who is better than anyone on the Ennis line and is viewed as such around the league.

You forget that when they were put together Foligno was a nobody just called up, Ennis wasn't anything special at center yet and Stafford isn;t enough to draw better defenders. Thats not a line a team is going to worry about right away.

If what Ennis's line did in those 12gms had happened in November. Then you would have seen teams start adjusting to them to try and stop them. Or if we had made the playoffs our opponent would have made an attempt to address them.
I'll have to go back and look more into the stats, but I just spot checked one random game towards the end of the season. The April 3rd game vs. Toronto. This is admittedly one game, I'm curious to see others.

TOI:
Ennis: 22:23 total, ES: 18:10
Hodgson: 17:49 total, ES: 13:09

Edit:
Then the next game vs. Philly on April 5th, the game they were eliminated:

Ennis: 19:25 total, 17:36 ES
Hodgson: 17:18 total, 14:32 ES

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06-28-2012, 08:56 PM
  #199
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ColonelForbin View Post
Last three seasons, number of games played:

St. Louis: 82, 82, 77

Malone: 69, 54, 68
St Louis is an inch shorter and 20 lbs heavier....

Ennis just seems to have small frame.... He looks like his jersey and pads are all a size too big... It's gotta be a concern. How many 157 lb guys are in the pro sports?

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06-28-2012, 08:59 PM
  #200
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ColonelForbin View Post
I'll have to go back and look more into the stats, but I just spot checked one random game towards the end of the season. The April 3rd game vs. Toronto. This is admittedly one game, I'm curious to see others.

TOI:
Ennis: 22:23 total, ES: 18:10
Hodgson: 17:49 total, ES: 13:09

Edit:
Then the next game vs. Philly on April 5th, the game they were eliminated:

Ennis: 19:25 total, 17:36 ES
Hodgson: 17:18 total, 14:32 ES
It's not about TOI, it's about the matchups.

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