I don't think you can win a Cup with him as your best forward, and signing him at 8 million limits roster flexibility a lot when we still need to add down the middle and improve the defensive capabilities of the blueline. And it means trading one or both of Vanek and our only capable defensive center(probably from a position of weakness). Maybe if losing their captain forced the Devils into going Zajac for Vanek...
I agree with your assessment. Would you be okay with paying him 8 million a year though? If his production doesn't go back to the 70+ pts, does his play really warrant one of the largest paid contracts in the NHL?
I honestly haven't put a lot of worthwhile thought into what my limit for Parise would be because until recently I hadn't really thought it was at all likely that he comes here. Nothing has changed to make me think it's more likely, but the boredom of this period has got me a little more engaged in the idea.
I'd really have to look at our longterm cap situation before I'd have a worthwhile opinion. I think the interesting conversation for those who aren't just deadset against Semin at any price, would be the comparative prices between Semin and Parise where you would end up preferring Semin, as all things being equal I'm pretty sure we'd all prefer Parise. I plan on making a post before noon comparing these and other targets with advanced statistics, so maybe that will help in the conversation.
I do think $6 million for Semin is better market value than $8 million for Parise. The question then is which player, if any, would you rather overpay for and to what extent. One problem is as fans we're always stuck at least a year behind when it comes to market value. Current market value has slowly changed slightly with the re-signing period and will be shaken tomorrow. $6 million is probably about what we'd all think Parise's basic market value was, but $7 million could easily be what it is now. In that context, $8 million hardly seems bad. To me the big issue there is $8 million + going well into his 30's + uncertainty of what happens to the cap in the CBA.
He's been a pretty durable player (unlike Semin), but with his size and style of game you do worry when it all starts to add up in a few years.
And as joshjull has mentioned, overpaying for wingers in UFA is a dangerous game. They're less important than centers and defenseman and it's also easier to get good offensive wingers at better value signings or via trade. This is why my main outlook on UFA and trade for Ryan/Nash/etc has long been that there's no particular reason why this is the year to "go big". Comparable players will be again available over the course of the season, next offseason, etc. Who knows, perhaps a much better value presents itself then? This team is set up for a couple years down the road, not a Cup win this year.