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Free Agency & General Offseason Discussion Thread: Part II

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07-10-2012, 11:24 AM
  #951
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Rumour has it that Brendan Morrow is being shopped, I don't really care for him, but he does have some upside still.

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07-10-2012, 11:24 AM
  #952
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Originally Posted by PKC View Post
My point is that contracts should be awarded based on value of the player rather than just handing out extra money because you have some to spend.

If I gave you a million dollars all of a sudden, would you go and pay $100,000 for a $50,000 car?
So how is having money and spending it foolishly not two different things?

And the original argument was that the cap going up somehow means that average player values suddenly increase accordingly. Which is false. Players always have and always will be rewarded according to the performance they have produced. People shouldn't be confused by the errors that GMs make every year in overpaying and overvaluing many players. That's what leads to escalating contracts. Not the fact that the cap goes up.

Your analogy is off. It's more like you give everyone in the world a million dollars, and all the car dealerships jack up their prices knowing that people can afford it. It's a free market; nothing happens in a bubble.

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07-10-2012, 11:31 AM
  #953
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Rumour has it that Brendan Morrow is being shopped, I don't really care for him, but he does have some upside still.
I think he'd be a good addition.. he may be 33 but he still has some good years in him. He's a big bodied winger who could help create space for Spezza and could probably pot another 30goal season.

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07-10-2012, 12:41 PM
  #954
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Ahh you are right, Sens did qualify his NA rights.

I guess I didn't get the update on that.
Ahh thank you!

Slim chance of him coming back here though, right?

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07-10-2012, 02:06 PM
  #955
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Ahh thank you!

Slim chance of him coming back here though, right?
It all depends on how seriously he takes the rest of his career and what kind of progression he makes in the KHL. I mean, it also depends on if he wants to even come back to the NHL.

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07-10-2012, 02:17 PM
  #956
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My point is that contracts should be awarded based on value of the player rather than just handing out extra money because you have some to spend.

If I gave you a million dollars all of a sudden, would you go and pay $100,000 for a $50,000 car?

So how is having money and spending it foolishly not two different things?

And the original argument was that the cap going up somehow means that average player values suddenly increase accordingly. Which is false. Players always have and always will be rewarded according to the performance they have produced. People shouldn't be confused by the errors that GMs make every year in overpaying and overvaluing many players. That's what leads to escalating contracts. Not the fact that the cap goes up.
Think you need a little lesson on inflation and economics. If there was no cap floor then yes your theory would be correct however because there is a floor it does push salaries up if the floor is being raised. Players salaries are obviously based on both production and value as well but if there is a cap floor that each team has to hit it brings the average player salary up as long as it escalates.

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07-10-2012, 02:20 PM
  #957
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Originally Posted by bacon25 View Post
Rumour has it that Brendan Morrow is being shopped, I don't really care for him, but he does have some upside still.
He would be an unbelievable addition, the price wont be cheap however.

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07-10-2012, 03:00 PM
  #958
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Think you need a little lesson on inflation and economics. If there was no cap floor then yes your theory would be correct however because there is a floor it does push salaries up if the floor is being raised. Players salaries are obviously based on both production and value as well but if there is a cap floor that each team has to hit it brings the average player salary up as long as it escalates.
It's almost impossible to use inflation to describe the current economical situation of the NHL. Because the NHL as an entity functions as an index of companies rather than one large company, eventhough the NHL itself functions within itself licensing its rights for TV deals, marketing, etc. They create an average across the board. That's why the New York Rangers are worth $400+ million and the Phoenix Coyotes are worth $150+ million. Yet they both operate within the same financial restrictions, ie. a floor and ceiling for the cap.

Player salaries go up because Team A values Player X at Y amount of dollars while Team B values Player X at a smaller Z amount of dollars. Then when Player X's comparable, Player W, becomes a free agent, he uses Player X as a comparable for his value. Player W and Team C don't go in to negotiations and say "Well, the cap went up again, so I guess that means you're worth 20% more right off the bat". That would be how teams become bankrupt and riddled with bad contracts that they can't afford to pay.

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07-10-2012, 03:30 PM
  #959
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Originally Posted by PKC View Post
It's almost impossible to use inflation to describe the current economical situation of the NHL. Because the NHL as an entity functions as an index of companies rather than one large company, eventhough the NHL itself functions within itself licensing its rights for TV deals, marketing, etc. They create an average across the board. That's why the New York Rangers are worth $400+ million and the Phoenix Coyotes are worth $150+ million. Yet they both operate within the same financial restrictions, ie. a floor and ceiling for the cap.

Player salaries go up because Team A values Player X at Y amount of dollars while Team B values Player X at a smaller Z amount of dollars. Then when Player X's comparable, Player W, becomes a free agent, he uses Player X as a comparable for his value. Player W and Team C don't go in to negotiations and say "Well, the cap went up again, so I guess that means you're worth 20% more right off the bat". That would be how teams become bankrupt and riddled with bad contracts that they can't afford to pay.
Your ignoring that (at least for UFAs) its an open market, and as the cap rises, teams have more reasourses to out bid each other. So while the cap going up doesn't mean they are more valuable, a team with a sudden influx of cap room (rising cap, and expiring contracts) will be more then willing to outbid the competition. It won't be linear (20% increase to cap =/= 20% to free agent A's salary demands) but it will certainly have an effect. I can fathom how it wouldn't, GMs are competitve, and will take advantage of a situation like that.

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07-10-2012, 05:47 PM
  #960
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Originally Posted by Micklebot View Post
Your ignoring that (at least for UFAs) its an open market, and as the cap rises, teams have more reasourses to out bid each other. So while the cap going up doesn't mean they are more valuable, a team with a sudden influx of cap room (rising cap, and expiring contracts) will be more then willing to outbid the competition. It won't be linear (20% increase to cap =/= 20% to free agent A's salary demands) but it will certainly have an effect. I can fathom how it wouldn't, GMs are competitve, and will take advantage of a situation like that.
No, it doesn't. Before we ever found out the cap was going up this year, Zach Parise had a value attached to his name. Whatever it was. Once the cap increase was announced, it's not like Zach Parise suddenly became worth that amount +15%. If the cap increase created room for a team to outbid others, it doesn't mean that the cap is naturally inflating contracts. It means that one team values Zach Parise at 15% more than other teams. They are two completely separate things.

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07-10-2012, 05:55 PM
  #961
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More possible space under the cap -> more bidders on players -> prices for players rise

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07-10-2012, 06:08 PM
  #962
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Depending on the cost for Morrow, that's a move you HAVE to make. He's no Shane Doan, but he brings so much to the table, he plays a complete game and is a captain and definite A material in Ottawa. Also, he is just 33 so he's got that veteran presence that you can never have enough of and he's got 2-3 more strong seasons in him. He is just two years removed from a 33 goal season and he's got over 500 points in his career.

Oh and the best part? He plays a rough tough in your face style. After a couple off years he was back to 97 PIM last season and while he only had 130 hits last season.....the two years before that he had 225 and 230 which was top 10 in the league.

A last little bonus? He's Canadian and would be a great mentor for Turris in the top 6, possibly the same line.

I say Murray offers up Puempel/Noesen, Bishop, Butler or a pick.

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07-10-2012, 06:17 PM
  #963
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Originally Posted by Spezza19 View Post
Depending on the cost for Morrow, that's a move you HAVE to make. He's no Shane Doan, but he brings so much to the table, he plays a complete game and is a captain and definite A material in Ottawa. Also, he is just 33 so he's got that veteran presence that you can never have enough of and he's got 2-3 more strong seasons in him. He is just two years removed from a 33 goal season and he's got over 500 points in his career.

Oh and the best part? He plays a rough tough in your face style. After a couple off years he was back to 97 PIM last season and while he only had 130 hits last season.....the two years before that he had 225 and 230 which was top 10 in the league.

A last little bonus? He's Canadian and would be a great mentor for Turris in the top 6, possibly the same line.

I say Murray offers up Puempel/Noesen, Bishop, Butler or a pick.
I get the feeling that Joe is going to want the world for Morrow, but I agree you gotta put a bid in to get him. I wonder if Z and a 2013 2nd rounder would be enough or too much.

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07-10-2012, 06:24 PM
  #964
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No, it doesn't. Before we ever found out the cap was going up this year, Zach Parise had a value attached to his name. Whatever it was. Once the cap increase was announced, it's not like Zach Parise suddenly became worth that amount +15%. If the cap increase created room for a team to outbid others, it doesn't mean that the cap is naturally inflating contracts. It means that one team values Zach Parise at 15% more than other teams. They are two completely separate things.
A player's value and their salary are not the same thing. A player's value is a % of resources that a team is willing to spend on them. The amount each team needs to spend every year is increasing, and the number of roster spots aren't. So...

You don't understand inflation, basically.

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07-10-2012, 06:26 PM
  #965
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I get the feeling that Joe is going to want the world for Morrow, but I agree you gotta put a bid in to get him. I wonder if Z and a 2013 2nd rounder would be enough or too much.
BARF.

He has played two (almost) full seasons in four years and has only scored more than 60 points twice in his career.

No thanks.

For the right, low, price, I'd be find with him. A depth prospect and a pick, no more.

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07-10-2012, 06:26 PM
  #966
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I get the feeling that Joe is going to want the world for Morrow, but I agree you gotta put a bid in to get him. I wonder if Z and a 2013 2nd rounder would be enough or too much.
HELL NO! Zibby is an elite world class prospect, went 6th overall and despite all the rumours bringing up his name the organization is very high on him obviously.

He could be offered up for the right price, but that's reserved for a guy like Nash or Ryan....not a declining 33 year old vet.

Although while I say declining, if he played with Spezza he could still put up 25-30 goals and 50-55 points so right around what he did 2 seasons ago.

That's why you offer up one of our B list prospects who still have good value like Puempel or Noesen, offer up Bishop who would be very enticing to Joe as he would compete with Jack Campbell down the road and a guy like Butler who can be in their bottom 6 or a 1st/2nd rounder. That should plenty!

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07-10-2012, 06:29 PM
  #967
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BARF.

He has played two (almost) full seasons in four years and has only scored more than 60 points twice in his career.

No thanks.

For the right, low, price, I'd be find with him. A depth prospect and a pick, no more.
What you suggesting.....Gryba or Pageau and a 3rd rounder? Will take one of our main prospects, not Zibby/Silfv/Prince/Ceci but definitely Puempel/Noesen. We could definitely afford to give up Butler in the deal and if they want goaltending we are able to offer up Bishop if need be.

Your offer is fine, if you want to be counted out of the talks right at the beginning but if Murray wanted to be serious and he was trying to out-bid another team than it will take more along the lines of my offer.

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07-10-2012, 06:36 PM
  #968
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Remember when Nieuwendyk got traded for young Iginla? If Morrow is younger, he would be worth Zibanejad. But I think with his age, he would garner no more than one or two decent prospects plus pick.

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07-10-2012, 06:45 PM
  #969
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Remember when Nieuwendyk got traded for young Iginla? If Morrow is younger, he would be worth Zibanejad. But I think with his age, he would garner no more than one or two decent prospects plus pick.
Exactly. My buddy thought Morrow was only 29 or 30. Nop....he's been around quite a while. Think back to the WJC teams of the mid 90's. He was drafted in 97, same age as Phillips. No way could you give up a top prospect for him.

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07-10-2012, 06:55 PM
  #970
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A player's value and their salary are not the same thing. A player's value is a % of resources that a team is willing to spend on them. The amount each team needs to spend every year is increasing, and the number of roster spots aren't. So...

You don't understand inflation, basically.
That would make a lot of sense if every player in the league was worth the exact same amount. Too bad they aren't.

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07-10-2012, 07:02 PM
  #971
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More possible space under the cap -> more bidders on players -> prices for players rise
This is way too simplistic of a breakdown of how the process works. If the NYI value Matt Carkner at 3 years and $1.5 million per year, does that mean all 29 teams do as well? Obviously not. But then similar players of Matt Carkner's ilk will use Matt as a comparison and say "look what this guy got, I want that". It has NOTHING to do with the cap and EVERYTHING to do with the value of the player to the organization relative to his comparisons around the league.

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07-10-2012, 07:42 PM
  #972
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I get the feeling that Joe is going to want the world for Morrow, but I agree you gotta put a bid in to get him. I wonder if Z and a 2013 2nd rounder would be enough or too much.
Firstly, Ottawa does not have a 2013 2nd.

Secondly, Zibanejad + would be a horrible horrible trade for us. Morrow might be the final piece for a contender but he's not even close to worth that to a team like Ottawa. We're talking about a guy with injury issues, limited offense and is 33.

I'm all for acquiring Morrow but if any of the top 5 prospects or our 1st are involved its not doable.

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07-10-2012, 07:47 PM
  #973
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Originally Posted by FolignoQuantumLeap View Post
Firstly, Ottawa does not have a 2013 2nd.

Secondly, Zibanejad + would be a horrible horrible trade for us. Morrow might be the final piece for a contender but he's not even close to worth that to a team like Ottawa. We're talking about a guy with injury issues, limited offense and is 33.

I'm all for acquiring Morrow but if any of the top 5 prospects or our 1st are involved its not doable.

Didn't know that Ottawa had a 2nd rounder in 2013, but then again I was just spit balling, I just threw out an offer that I thought Joe N. would ask for. If you read my previous posts you will see that I could care less for acquiring him.

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07-10-2012, 08:01 PM
  #974
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Didn't know that Ottawa had a 2nd rounder in 2013, but then again I was just spit balling, I just threw out an offer that I thought Joe N. would ask for. If you read my previous posts you will see that I could care less for acquiring him.
I'd be all for getting him, its just that I wouldn't offer anything close to that. If Morrow was on our club, I'd love to see him play a full season with Turris. Those two would form 2/3 of a great second line and that frees up Alfie to play with Spezza for his last hurrah.

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07-10-2012, 08:24 PM
  #975
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This is way too simplistic of a breakdown of how the process works. If the NYI value Matt Carkner at 3 years and $1.5 million per year, does that mean all 29 teams do as well? Obviously not. But then similar players of Matt Carkner's ilk will use Matt as a comparison and say "look what this guy got, I want that". It has NOTHING to do with the cap and EVERYTHING to do with the value of the player to the organization relative to his comparisons around the league.
Some teams like NYR value cap space instead of dollars, so when the cap goes up, the relative value of every dollar goes down. So if they value "Big name free agent A" at 10% of their cap, if the cap goes up, so does his potential pay out since they have no internal budget, and are only limited in how much they spend in payroll by the cap.

I think for some teams it does work as you describe, but for others it does not. And because teams like NYR operate without worrying about $$$, it puts upward pressure on all salaries whenever the cap goes up.

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