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Old
08-31-2012, 01:21 PM
  #701
Proto
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The point here isn't that Eberle can't be a PPG player. It's that the evidence so far is spotty, and signing contract now would be an unnecessarily risk if this was just any old summer. The odds are he regresses -- if so, you can shave a million off his contract next summer. And this isn't any old summer: what if the CBA radically alters the CBA landscape? You might be able to tighten the screws more and get him for even less.

It's just not smart asset management.

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08-31-2012, 11:57 PM
  #702
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Originally Posted by Proto View Post
The point here isn't that Eberle can't be a PPG player. It's that the evidence so far is spotty, and signing contract now would be an unnecessarily risk if this was just any old summer. The odds are he regresses -- if so, you can shave a million off his contract next summer. And this isn't any old summer: what if the CBA radically alters the CBA landscape? You might be able to tighten the screws more and get him for even less.

It's just not smart asset management.
Meh. It's Deadmonton. Revel in their ineptitude.

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09-01-2012, 06:25 AM
  #703
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Originally Posted by Proto View Post
The point here isn't that Eberle can't be a PPG player. It's that the evidence so far is spotty, and signing contract now would be an unnecessarily risk if this was just any old summer. The odds are he regresses -- if so, you can shave a million off his contract next summer. And this isn't any old summer: what if the CBA radically alters the CBA landscape? You might be able to tighten the screws more and get him for even less.

It's just not smart asset management.
Even so, they have labelled Hall and Eberle they're two best players in their organization, and they're making $6M a year each. Now, nobody else can ask for equal to that or more because the "best guys" on the team are making that. It's similar to what we did with the Sedin's.

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Old
09-01-2012, 07:45 AM
  #704
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Originally Posted by Chief Wiggum View Post
Even so, they have labelled Hall and Eberle they're two best players in their organization, and they're making $6M a year each. Now, nobody else can ask for equal to that or more because the "best guys" on the team are making that. It's similar to what we did with the Sedin's.
Yeah but imagine Nuge becomes the best of the 4? Yakupov Nuge Hall and Eberle going to all come in at 6? They'd have to benefit from the ELCs and win the cup in the next 3-4 years. I doubt Tambo is competent enough to get a #1 goalie and build a cup calibre D within that time frame.

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09-01-2012, 10:08 AM
  #705
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Originally Posted by Chief Wiggum View Post
Even so, they have labelled Hall and Eberle they're two best players in their organization, and they're making $6M a year each. Now, nobody else can ask for equal to that or more because the "best guys" on the team are making that. It's similar to what we did with the Sedin's.


Yeah, the premise seems sound, but the targets don't IMO. Hall is a good talent, but injuries have already plagued him. I don't see that factored in. Then there's Eberle having an exceptional year that seems unsustainable... Might have wanted to wait before locking either player in.


Could be that RNH turns out the best of all... he has the best hockey sense. Then there's the complete unknown with Yakupov. I'm guessing each of them will buy into the 6m internal cap, but that's 4 players at 6m per. All forwards...


I think they really needed Eberle to establish what he was this year. Likely, he would have seemed the lesser talent to Hall, and would have been paid less for it. Then there's some maneuverability. Now, not so much.

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09-01-2012, 01:00 PM
  #706
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Originally Posted by Chief Wiggum View Post
Even so, they have labelled Hall and Eberle they're two best players in their organization, and they're making $6M a year each. Now, nobody else can ask for equal to that or more because the "best guys" on the team are making that. It's similar to what we did with the Sedin's.
And if Yakupov and RNH demonstrably outperform Eberle and say, "Well, you gave a 60 point player that doesn't play difficult minutes 6 million... I want 7.5" what do you do?

The internal cap only works if you're A) a good franchise, and B) your top paid players are actually your best within that structure...

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09-01-2012, 01:55 PM
  #707
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Originally Posted by Proto View Post
And if Yakupov and RNH demonstrably outperform Eberle and say, "Well, you gave a 60 point player that doesn't play difficult minutes 6 million... I want 7.5" what do you do?

The internal cap only works if you're A) a good franchise, and B) your top paid players are actually your best within that structure...
Give it a rest.

He's not a 60 point player.

He already scored more.

I think he is only going to get better, Eberle is the guy I would want on the Canucks more than any of the other young forwards the Oilers have.


*edit* I doubt the agent for either player would have taken any less than Shawn Horcoff (let's all laugh at Edmonton) haha.


Last edited by arsmaster: 09-01-2012 at 02:01 PM.
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09-01-2012, 02:26 PM
  #708
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It's almost like Steve Tambellini is running some kind of brotherhood rather than a major league sports team.

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Old
09-01-2012, 02:59 PM
  #709
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Originally Posted by arsmaster View Post
Give it a rest.

He's not a 60 point player.

He already scored more.

I think he is only going to get better, Eberle is the guy I would want on the Canucks more than any of the other young forwards the Oilers have.


*edit* I doubt the agent for either player would have taken any less than Shawn Horcoff (let's all laugh at Edmonton) haha.
The Shawn Horcoff contract is the best comparable contract to Eberle's contract, so I'm not sure what you're getting at here. The entire point here is that it's very likely Eberle had an outlier year last season and they paid him as if that will be his performance going forward. There's a very real chance he'll be a 60 point player in the future, barring a real significant step forward in his play. Given that, there's decent chance that RNH and Yakupov may ask for more -- because they stand a good chance of being better players.

There just wasn't much point in Tambellini taking the risk of signing Eberle now, not with a new CBA on the horizon and Eberle having posted what is likely an exceptional outlier in his second year. This is the same thing that happened with Horcoff after he posted a similarly unlikely season.

They should have waited until next summer. Maybe they're banking on a rollback; that's all I can think of.


Last edited by Proto: 09-01-2012 at 03:08 PM.
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Old
09-01-2012, 03:30 PM
  #710
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They should have waited until next summer. Maybe they're banking on a rollback; that's all I can think of.
Maybe they weren't thinking at all.

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Old
09-01-2012, 05:17 PM
  #711
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Originally Posted by Proto View Post
The Shawn Horcoff contract is the best comparable contract to Eberle's contract, so I'm not sure what you're getting at here. The entire point here is that it's very likely Eberle had an outlier year last season and they paid him as if that will be his performance going forward. There's a very real chance he'll be a 60 point player in the future, barring a real significant step forward in his play. Given that, there's decent chance that RNH and Yakupov may ask for more -- because they stand a good chance of being better players.

There just wasn't much point in Tambellini taking the risk of signing Eberle now, not with a new CBA on the horizon and Eberle having posted what is likely an exceptional outlier in his second year. This is the same thing that happened with Horcoff after he posted a similarly unlikely season.

They should have waited until next summer. Maybe they're banking on a rollback; that's all I can think of.
Horcoff isn't a comparable at all. His "outlier" season of 73 points had happened two seasons before he signed the most recent contract; he had posted back-to-back 50 point seasons right before his new deal.

And of course, the most glaring difference is that Eberle is 22 and far from having completed his development; Horcoff was 30 when he signed the contract.

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Old
09-02-2012, 02:36 PM
  #712
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Why is Chara drinking coke (on the bench) during a game?
He always does that. Apparently he likes the sugar during a long game but doesn't like sports drinks or something.

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Old
09-02-2012, 08:42 PM
  #713
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if it was only one aspect, it could be reasoned away, but he essentially hit the lucky grand slam where everything that he did or breathed on scored a goal, well beyond the talents of most people in the league

furthermore, it's not as if it would be a problem if next year he proved himself to be a 90 point player and should actually be paid 7m. what they're doing is estimating he's going to stay at his high watermark rather than paying him for what he's actually going to do

they should have just waited the year out: "oh no, eberle scored 90 points and now we owe him 7m! our team is really good now!" isn't a problem instead of risking this
Welcome to the downside of rebuilding Edmonton style - you have nothing to stop the kids wanting big deals when they are your best players. If he was on a team with real talent he'd be in the queue to wait for ice time and team importance - and with that he'd have to take an intermediate 2nd contract and work towards the big one.

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09-02-2012, 09:21 PM
  #714
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Welcome to the downside of rebuilding Edmonton style - you have nothing to stop the kids wanting big deals when they are your best players. If he was on a team with real talent he'd be in the queue to wait for ice time and team importance - and with that he'd have to take an intermediate 2nd contract and work towards the big one.
they could have waited until the end of this year with no reprocussions

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09-02-2012, 11:52 PM
  #715
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Just saw that M-A Gragnani received one fifth place vote for the Calder this year. That deserves a hearty WTF.

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Old
09-03-2012, 01:30 AM
  #716
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Originally Posted by Proto View Post
The point here isn't that Eberle can't be a PPG player. It's that the evidence so far is spotty, and signing contract now would be an unnecessarily risk if this was just any old summer. The odds are he regresses -- if so, you can shave a million off his contract next summer. And this isn't any old summer: what if the CBA radically alters the CBA landscape? You might be able to tighten the screws more and get him for even less.

It's just not smart asset management.
Really?

There are several factors at play. The only argument for him regressing is that his shooting percentage was 18.9%. That is an unsustainable number, I agree.

Arguments for him at least maintaining include the following (some points taken from a thread on the Oilers board):

He averaged 2 less minutes of TOI per game than the average Top 30 scorer.

He took 42% fewer shots than the average Top 30 scorer.

He's 22 and should keep improving physically for a few years before he hits his physical peak.

He's only played 2 seasons, and only a couple players in league history had their best season by their sophomore year.

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09-03-2012, 02:14 AM
  #717
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Why is Chara drinking coke (on the bench) during a game?
Lots of players do it. Sometimes you run low on energy and the quickest way to get going again is something with a lot of Sodium and Sugar.

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Old
09-03-2012, 01:48 PM
  #718
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Just saw that M-A Gragnani received one fifth place vote for the Calder this year. That deserves a hearty WTF.
Must be a relative of his.

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Old
09-03-2012, 03:38 PM
  #719
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Really?

There are several factors at play. The only argument for him regressing is that his shooting percentage was 18.9%. That is an unsustainable number, I agree.

Arguments for him at least maintaining include the following (some points taken from a thread on the Oilers board):

He averaged 2 less minutes of TOI per game than the average Top 30 scorer.

He took 42% fewer shots than the average Top 30 scorer.

He's 22 and should keep improving physically for a few years before he hits his physical peak.

He's only played 2 seasons, and only a couple players in league history had their best season by their sophomore year.
Yes, really. In fact, most of the things you tout as evidence that he'll get better are actually data points that support his season being an outlier fueled by incredible luck.

We won't know yet whether Eberle is a player that can truly drive on-ice SH% like Alex Tanguary (the gold standard of players that drive SH% that aren't incredible superstars), but even if Eberle is that good at driving SH%, his ES production would still regress.

Most of the points you raised were addressed at length in the post I linked to earlier, and there are a lot of other good Eberle articles floating around out there.

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09-04-2012, 12:49 PM
  #720
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Landeskog just named youngest captain in NHL history.

Wow.

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Old
09-04-2012, 12:56 PM
  #721
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Landeskog just named youngest captain in NHL history.

Wow.
Who had the C last year?

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09-04-2012, 12:57 PM
  #722
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Who had the C last year?
Didn't Hejduk have it?

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09-04-2012, 01:01 PM
  #723
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He's going to be great, but he's waaaaay too young for a C!

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09-04-2012, 01:06 PM
  #724
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Landeskog just named youngest captain in NHL history.

Wow.
Ah, it's going to be hard to root against this guy, even though he plays for a rival. He's kind of like Iginla

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09-04-2012, 01:43 PM
  #725
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Wow, huge statement by the Avs.

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