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Dubnyk signs for 2 years @ 3.5M Cap Hit

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Old
07-05-2012, 09:08 PM
  #251
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Originally Posted by Replacement View Post
In almost every instance its when those clubs weren't playing well. He also lost 3 games against Vancouver, Phoenix, 2 against Stlouis, 2 against Calgary. He had an easy schedule, games were handpicked for him(for instance 4 starts against Columbus)

Did you think about that at all? Theres simply no way the bolded would occur. You're projecting up to 38wins for a goalie thats 26 yrs old that has 36 wins in his entire career?

Are you expecting him to start every game? He could start 82 games and would be virtually guaranteed to not get 38 wins. What a ridiculous point.

I will NEVER post here again if Dubnyk gets 38 wins next year. Put it that way.
Well, everybody needs something to hope for

No seriously. He beat some good teams, give credit where its due. The Oilers had the Hawks # all year long, he beat the Pens when they were on a 3 game winning streak, he beat the Sharks when they were still chasing a playoff spot...

I wouldn't be surprised to see Dubnyk hit 30+ wins this year. I'll put my "money" where my mouth is too, if Dubnyk gets the #1 role and plays ~60 starts I'll bet your avvy that he wins 30+ games.

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07-05-2012, 09:08 PM
  #252
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Originally Posted by Digger12 View Post
3.5M/yr is a totally reasonable sum to expect to pay for a starting goaltender.

I only wish we knew for sure that Dubnyk actually was a starting goaltender before he started making this kind of money.

Mind you, it's not a ridiculous overpay in a 70M cap world. Sometimes, I wonder if fans get hung up on dollar values and think a 3.5M salary holds the same value as the same amount would 3-4 years ago...the cap's gone up nearly 20% in only 3 years.
What goalie in the league thats 26 yrs old with only 36 career NHL wins (regular season and playoffs) would be making this kind of coin?

Anybody?

Thats the whole point. He hasn't done anything yet to warrant this contract. Any defense of it seems to be based on the false and elevated notion of what he might do.
Or that he had 20W's last year. What goalie in the league is getting paid this much for 20W's?

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07-05-2012, 09:09 PM
  #253
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Originally Posted by Replacement View Post
What goalie in the league thats 26 yrs old with only 36 career NHL wins (regular season and playoffs) would be making this kind of coin?

Anybody?


Thats the whole point. He hasn't done anything yet to warrant this contract. Any defense of it seems to be based on the false and elevated notion of what he might do.
Or that he had 20W's last year. What goalie in the league is getting paid this much for 20W's?
Cory Schneider has 36 wins....

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07-05-2012, 09:10 PM
  #254
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Originally Posted by Replacement View Post
What goalie in the league thats 26 yrs old with only 36 career NHL wins (regular season and playoffs) would be making this kind of coin?

Anybody?

Thats the whole point. He hasn't done anything yet to warrant this contract. Any defense of it seems to be based on the false and elevated notion of what he might do.
Or that he had 20W's last year. What goalie in the league is getting paid this much for 20W's?
Cory Schneider? Think he has 39 W's total.

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07-05-2012, 09:12 PM
  #255
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Originally Posted by Groucho View Post
Well, everybody needs something to hope for

No seriously. He beat some good teams, give credit where its due. The Oilers had the Hawks # all year long, he beat the Pens when they were on a 3 game winning streak, he beat the Sharks when they were still chasing a playoff spot...

I wouldn't be surprised to see Dubnyk hit 30+ wins this year. I'll put my "money" where my mouth is too, if Dubnyk gets the #1 role and plays ~60 starts I'll bet your avvy that he wins 30+ games.
You said 32 before. I'll hold you to that and bet on.

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07-05-2012, 09:12 PM
  #256
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Originally Posted by Moonlapse Vertigo View Post
We can ***** about this all summer (and I'm annoyed by it) but the bottomline is that Dubnyk's agent had a lot of ammunition to bring to the negotiating table. 20 wins, 20 losses and solid overall numbers on the 29th place team in the league probably would have garnered him something similar in arbitration.
20 wins, 27 losses.

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07-05-2012, 09:13 PM
  #257
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Awful, terrible contract. The Petry one is great. One for two is an improvement with the morons running this team. Reason for hope perhaps.

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07-05-2012, 09:13 PM
  #258
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Originally Posted by Replacement View Post
You said 32 before. I'll hold you to that and bet on.
Yeah all right, I'm cool with that.

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07-05-2012, 09:13 PM
  #259
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Cory Schneider? Think he has 39 W's total.
Serious question. Does Dubnyk look anything like Cory Schneider to you? He's much more highly touted talent that teams were actually looking for. Nucks had to pay him or lose him.
I would imagine teams weren't lining up to pay Dubnyk 3.5M

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07-05-2012, 09:17 PM
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Yeah all right, I'm cool with that.
Were on. 60 games, you say he gets 32 wins is the bet. In the case that he gets more games than that we can either calculate rate or take the first 60 games, either one you want. No proration meaning there must be minimum 60 GP for it to be a bet.

I guarantee you he doesn't get 32 W's in 60GP.

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07-05-2012, 09:17 PM
  #261
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Digger12 View Post
3.5M/yr is a totally reasonable sum to expect to pay for a starting goaltender.

I only wish we knew for sure that Dubnyk actually was a starting goaltender before he started making this kind of money.

Mind you, it's not a ridiculous overpay in a 70M cap world. Sometimes, I wonder if fans get hung up on dollar values and think a 3.5M salary holds the same value as the same amount would 3-4 years ago...the cap's gone up nearly 20% in only 3 years.
That's my problem as well. If last year was such a so-called development year then why didn't the Oilers give Dubnyk 60-62 games to see if he could handle the load? There was no point in trotting Bulin out there for half of the games but they did it anyway.

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07-05-2012, 09:18 PM
  #262
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20 wins, 27 losses.
I'm not counting OTL losses anymore because of those stupid shootouts.

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07-05-2012, 09:19 PM
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Originally Posted by Replacement View Post
In case you missed it the same day Dybnyk wins the lottery Gagner goes arbitration because the Oilers wouldn't come to terms.

So in otherwords were lowballing a 22 yr old 6th pick with an average of 44pts/yr that most clubs in the league would want so that we can pay more for a replaceable scrub that NOBODY would be offering this contract to.
Gagner going to arbitration has nothing to do with Dubnyk

Thats between Gagner and management... honestly nobody knows the numbers or terms that Gagner was requesting, I think at this point managements main priority is locking up Hall, Eberle, RNH, and Yak to longterm contracts or longer term contracts (Yak to a lesser extent at this point) or they are at least keeping that in the back of their mind and don't want to lock up anyone else for longer than 1-2 years at this point in time, next summer is a different story...

Back to Gagner... For all we know he could be wanting something ridiculous and management is not ready to commit to that at this point in time, especially for a 2C that has yet to find consistency in the NHL... Or perhaps Arbitration works in the Oilers favour since he can't be offer sheeted?

...anyways your post has nothing to do with Dubnyk being resigned, and my post was about people complaining about how much dubnyk was making for a simple 2 year contract that really doesn't put us in a tough spot for cap space or length of contract so its a meh contract as some have said but to honestly freak out about the numbers he is making is just hilarious

EDIT: Had a brain fart and meant the Oilers not Gagner


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07-05-2012, 09:19 PM
  #264
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Replacement View Post
Serious question. Does Dubnyk look anything like Cory Schneider to you? He's much more highly touted talent that teams were actually looking for. Nucks had to pay him or lose him.
I would imagine teams weren't lining up to pay Dubnyk 3.5M
You might be suprised. I can think of a few teams that would be quite interested in Dubnyk's services, including Toronto and Florida. Would they offer 3.5m? Really hard to say. Depends what the asking prices for goalies up for trade such as Luongo are at. If it's crazy high, I could easily see Toronto/Florida throwing a 3/3.5m offersheet to an unsigned Dubnyk, actually. Schneider has looked better (albeit with a far better team in front of him, so it's hard to be truely objective), but I don't think it's a massive difference, and Dubie continues to get better.

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07-05-2012, 09:22 PM
  #265
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Originally Posted by Pablo Aimar View Post
Awful, terrible contract. The Petry one is great. One for two is an improvement with the morons running this team. Reason for hope perhaps.
I think we might be going overboard a bit. Sure the contract is an overpayment right now. But if he can grab the reins as a true number 1 next season it isn't. And if he can't, well, it's maybe 1-1.5M he's overpayed out of a cap of 70M. Also, it ends when the Oilers need to resign Nuge.

Basically this contract says that the Oilers think Dubnyk is their guy, something we all knew, and are willing to put their money where their mouth is. I guess we'll see if they are right, or if they're looking for a new starter in the summer of 2014.

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07-05-2012, 09:22 PM
  #266
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Originally Posted by Replacement View Post
What goalie in the league thats 26 yrs old with only 36 career NHL wins (regular season and playoffs) would be making this kind of coin?

Anybody?

Thats the whole point. He hasn't done anything yet to warrant this contract. Any defense of it seems to be based on the false and elevated notion of what he might do.
Or that he had 20W's last year. What goalie in the league is getting paid this much for 20W's?
How many goals does Hemsky average for his $5 million. Horcoff for his $5.5 million?

When you are Oiler Managment you just spin the wheel of fortune when handing out contracts, because that's the way they roll.

But seriously, Dubnyk is probably a $2.5 million per season player based on what he has accomplished. So, he is overpaid by a million per ... worst case scenario. This management group, has completely mishandled this player from the time we had no farm team, till last year when he was obviously the better goalie yet got fewer starts. So just maybe this little overpay is deserved.

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07-05-2012, 09:23 PM
  #267
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i'm confused about why everyone is so concerned about this contract. he is the 1a if not 1 goalie right now, he's posted good numbers for being on a team that is defensively lousy, and we're not in cap hell nor will we be when we get there. it IS a slight overpay, but if there's a position to overpay, it's goalie.

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07-05-2012, 09:24 PM
  #268
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The reality is that Tambellini (and Renney) screwed up with Dubnyk in 11/12. He should have been getting the vast majority of the games and we would have had a better gauge on his overall potential. As it stands Dub's agent looked at his client and goaltenders with similar numbers and Dubnyk's record in relation to where the Oilers finished in the standings and thought, "jackpot!"

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07-05-2012, 09:24 PM
  #269
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Originally Posted by KarmaPolice View Post
You might be suprised. I can think of a few teams that would be quite interested in Dubnyk's services, including Toronto and Florida. Would they offer 3.5m? Really hard to say. Depends what the asking prices for goalies up for trade such as Luongo are at. If it's crazy high, I could easily see Toronto/Florida throwing a 3/3.5m offersheet to an unsigned Dubnyk, actually. Schneider has looked better (albeit with a far better team in front of him, so it's hard to be truely objective), but I don't think it's a massive difference, and Dubie continues to get better.
No kidding, add Columbus and Tampa to that list.

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07-05-2012, 09:24 PM
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Originally Posted by Replacement View Post
Were on. 60 games, you say he gets 32 wins is the bet. In the case that he gets more games than that we can either calculate rate or take the first 60 games, either one you want. No proration meaning there must be minimum 60 GP for it to be a bet.

I guarantee you he doesn't get 32 W's in 60GP.

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07-05-2012, 09:26 PM
  #271
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gone View Post
How many goals does Hemsky average for his $5 million. Horcoff for his $5.5 million?

When you are Oiler Managment you just spin the wheel of fortune when handing out contracts, because that's the way they roll.

But seriously, Dubnyk is probably a $2.5 million per season player based on what he has accomplished. So, he is overpaid by a million per ... worst case scenario. This management group, has completely mishandled this player from the time we had no farm team, till last year when he was obviously the better goalie yet got fewer starts. So just maybe this little overpay is deserved.
That's about how I see it. Hey, look. I'd be lying if I said I was thrilled with the contract. But I don't think it's really cause for much consternation. Yeah, it's a 500k-1m per year overpayment at this point. But I would say we also saved about that much on the Petry contract, also signed today. Let's try to be level headed about this.

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07-05-2012, 09:29 PM
  #272
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Originally Posted by Moonlapse Vertigo View Post
I'm not counting OTL losses anymore because of those stupid shootouts.
Well then why are you counting them as wins? So if a game goes to OT or shootout, he gets to count it as a win if he wins it, but if he loses it, it gets throw out?

20-27 including shootouts.
15-25 excluding shootouts.

Anyone quoting anything other than these records is silly.

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07-05-2012, 09:33 PM
  #273
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2 year 2.7 mil/per

Good deal for him, I think Dubi is severley underrated and with a full season as the starter he may have a breakout year.
Well he's got financial security as well as the starters role handed to him on a silver platter. Time to see what you're made of big man

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07-05-2012, 09:34 PM
  #274
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Well then why are you counting them as wins? So if a game goes to OT or shootout, he gets to count it as a win if he wins it, but if he loses it, it gets throw out?

20-27 including shootouts.
15-25 excluding shootouts.

Anyone quoting anything other than these records is silly.
Because a lot of the time a goaltender can make the saves in a shootout and still lose the damn thing by virtue of the shooters on his team doing dick all. When they get a shootout win the majority of the time they earn it.

His record on NHL.com is 20-20-3.

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07-05-2012, 09:35 PM
  #275
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How many goals does Hemsky average for his $5 million. Horcoff for his $5.5 million?

When you are Oiler Managment you just spin the wheel of fortune when handing out contracts, because that's the way they roll.
To put it another way, whereas many teams pay players based on how they played in the last few years, the Oilers seem to pay players based on how they could potentially play if all goes well over the next few years. The list of guys paid like this over the past few years, many of whom didn't pan out, is long.

Petry is a rare exception... that guy needs a new agent.

I'm generally a supporter of Tambellini is that I like the way he manages his assets, but as the evidence piles up, I'm not a big fan of the contracts he negotiates.

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