I think we might be going overboard a bit. Sure the contract is an overpayment right now. But if he can grab the reins as a true number 1 next season it isn't. And if he can't, well, it's maybe 1-1.5M he's overpayed out of a cap of 70M. Also, it ends when the Oilers need to resign Nuge.
Basically this contract says that the Oilers think Dubnyk is their guy, something we all knew, and are willing to put their money where their mouth is. I guess we'll see if they are right, or if they're looking for a new starter in the summer of 2014.
The term is fine.I was just stunned by the number. He doesn't compare, at this point to Rask, etc. IF he can prove to be a solid number one then its pretty good. I doubt he is capable; maybe I'd be happier if the guy didn't give up at least one crappy goal per game.
Wait a minute, it's $3.5 million per year not $2.7 million? Well so much for my excitement. Kids got a golden opportunity but that's a lot of coin for a guy that's never even started 55 games in a year IMO.
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To be fair to the guy re: his stats, look at the defense that's he's played behind, I doubt that Rask or Schneider would duplicate their stats playing behind our team the last couple of years.
Because a lot of the time a goaltender can make the saves in a shootout and still lose the damn thing by virtue of the shooters on his team doing dick all. When they get a shootout win the majority of the time they earn it.
His record on NHL.com is 20-20-3.
And other times, they don't deserve it but the shooters score. This team has some really good shoot out shooters, it goes both ways. But if you don't like shoot outs then go with 15-25. Don't put together a Frankenstein style piece meal record based on the games of your choosing and try to pass it off as a representation of who he is, please.
To be fair to the guy re: his stats, look at the defense that's he's played behind, I doubt that Rask or Schneider would duplicate their stats playing behind our team the last couple of years.
People on the main board are comparing this contract to Elliott's in St. Louis, and are wondering how Elliott's getting paid 1.7 less. Which I think is silly. Elliott played behind the stingiest defence in the entire league. Can you imagine a guy like him playing goal on the Oilers? We saw something comparable when he was on the Avalanche.
And other times, they don't deserve it but the shooters score. This team has some really good shoot out shooters, it goes both ways. But if you don't like shoot outs then go with 15-25. Don't put together a Frankenstein style piece meal record based on the games of your choosing and try to pass it off as a representation of who he is, please.
Fair enough, but again, the NHL considers his 11/12 record to be 20-20-3 so yeah, that's what it was.
And I'm not thrilled with the contract, I just don't think it's the end of the world and it doesn't set a precedent of any kind. Khabibulin is off the books next summer and if Dubnyk absolutely bombs this year then the Oilers will go sniffing around for goaltending. By contrast if he excels then score! We got a good deal.
The term is fine.I was just stunned by the number. He doesn't compare, at this point to Rask, etc. IF he can prove to be a solid number one then its pretty good. I doubt he is capable; maybe I'd be happier if the guy didn't give up at least one crappy goal per game.
I don't disagree about the salary or comparables. But obviously the Oilers do. Perhaps they are right and his lower SV% compared to those two is because of our D. I guess we'll see next season. Basically, I am willing to give them the benefit of the doubt on this, until proven wrong. Then I'll rip on them.
If we pay him $2.5M per, we are paying for his last year performance. A goalie that's won 20 games and lost 20 games(plus 3 OTL).
We pay him $3.5M, that's paying for a starting goalie that will win more than 20 games, perhaps close to 30 games. It's possible with more starts and the team in front of him improved from last year.
If we make the playoffs, meaning most likely Dubnyk has to win 35 to 40 games. And if he does that, $3.5M is actually a small bargain for the club.
And if Dubnyk completely falls on his face as a starting goalie, he got one more chance in the 2nd yr and it's not a huge money long contract the club would get stuck on.
Last edited by AK Dandyman: 07-05-2012 at 09:19 PM.
And the bigger question is what if he isn't that good?
Do we have a plan B? As much as we all ***** and moan about our D our goaltending quality and depth has to be one of the worst in hockey. Dubnyk is a pretty iffy starter. Khabby is a quickly aging, often dinged, question mark even as a backup. Danis is somewhat of a decent call up from the farm but after that it really gets scary. And long term are we counting on Bunz or Roy?
This really puzzles me. I rarely hear management even discuss it. Are they as freaked out as me about this but just don't say it or do they actually think we are ok in net? They can't be ok with this situation can they?
And the bigger question is what if he isn't that good?
Do we have a plan B? As much as we all ***** and moan about our D our goaltending quality and depth has to be one of the worst in hockey. Dubnyk is a pretty iffy starter. Khabby is a quickly aging, often dinged, question mark even as a backup. Danis is somewhat of a decent call up from the farm but after that it really gets scary. And long term are we counting on Bunz or Roy?
This really puzzles me. I rarely hear management even discuss it. Are they as freaked out as me about this but just don't say it or do they actually think we are ok in net? They can't be ok with this situation can they?
Dubnyk put up good enough numbers last year, that you can at least count on him being an "average" goaltender. Khabibulin should do much better with less games, and i dont see a problem with him being a backup.
The main problem is that there really are not much for options. The only clear option is to ride these two, and if it doesnt work out, make a trade. With the way Dubnyk ended the season, i am willing to have some faith. Trading for a Bernier or Lehner would just be putting us in the same situation IMO.
When I first saw the deal I thought it was 3.5 over 2 years and I thought well that's a reasonable deal... maybe even a little lower than I expected... then I saw it was for EACH year.
Ya it's an overpayment based on what he's done so far.
Saying that... the cap ceiling is 70 million and an "average" contract for a player is now closing in on ~$3 million.
You either get more money or more term. Obviously the Oilers gave him a little more money and a little less term... much like the Hemsky deal.
Again it's an overpayment BUT Dubnyk is also better than many say he is (although not a proven starter yet either). When all is said and done I can live with this for 2 years. If he ***** the bed it isn't like he's tied up for 5+ years.
The team still needs to find a decent backup/co starter to replace Khabi. I'm hoping we see Dubby play 55-60 games this year to see if he has a true #1 goalie living within him... otherwise they need to find a plan B pretty ****in quick.
How many teams have a bunch of options in net? A team can only realistically have 2. If a guy in the AHL was good enough to be a NHL goalie then he would be in the NHL.
Too much money for a goalie who hasn't proven he can be a starter. How the hell can the Oilers justify 3.5M for Dubnyk when you look in our division and see Harding getting 1.9 and he was a UFA. Bad contract. Hopefully Dubnyk can actually be consistent for more than a 20 game stretch to end the year.
The Petry deal sort of makes up for it. His contract is pretty stellar at least.
Dubnyk is way too inconsistent and has done nothing to earn that contract. He is a 2.0-2.5 million goalie. We have an abundance of cap space though and term is short so price isn't significant I guess except to Mr. Katz. If he continues to play as he has (minus last quarter of the season when we were way out of the playoff race and there was no pressure) we can let him walk after the 2 years. As you can tell I don't have much faith in him, would have preferred Harding at almost half the cost. Stranger things have happened though so I will be pleasantly surprised if he fulfills his potential.
the Oilers have the cap space so this isn't an issue. One important thing to remember - he will be ufa in 2 years.We want him to be a happy #1 goalie at that time. Paying him a little extra because mngt believes in him might buy some loyalty in 2 years.
Carey Price got a contract almost double that. Last year, they had a better team in terms of expectaions and experience, and finished with similar results/points.
Goalies are the backbone of any team, and Dubnyk proved his worth in the last 20 games of the season, if he continues to do so, this was a good deal IMO
But the Petry signing was definitely a steal. He is shaping up to be our top defensemen for the next couple seasons, @ 1.75 per, management has excellent business savvy
Carey Price got a contract almost double that. Last year, they had a better team in terms of expectaions and experience, and finished with similar results/points.
Goalies are the backbone of any team, and Dubnyk proved his worth in the last 20 games of the season, if he continues to do so, this was a good deal IMO
But the Petry signing was definitely a steal. He is shaping up to be our top defensemen for the next couple seasons, @ 1.75 per, management has excellent business savvy
Price is the 2012 version of overpayment based on performance.
Too much money for a goalie who hasn't proven he can be a starter. How the hell can the Oilers justify 3.5M for Dubnyk when you look in our division and see Harding getting 1.9 and he was a UFA. Bad contract. Hopefully Dubnyk can actually be consistent for more than a 20 game stretch to end the year.
The Petry deal sort of makes up for it. His contract is pretty stellar at least.
Except that Harding is a backup. He is getting paid 55% of what Dubnyk is getting paid because he will probably play 55% of the games that Dubnyk plays. Last year he was 23rd in shots against and will now be the 22nd highest paid goaltender in the league. Seems pretty accurate to me.
Rask is a better goalie and we are paying them the same. 
