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Dubnyk signs for 2 years @ 3.5M Cap Hit

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07-06-2012, 06:38 AM
  #351
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Originally Posted by Insta View Post
Not sure what you are getting at here. The Oilers would match any reasonable offersheet that Dubnyk would sign.
They would have to offer term as well. It is possible that they would prefer a 2 year $3.5M deal to a 4 year $2.5M deal.

I am not using this comment to suggest that the deal they signed is a good one. The numbers actually surprised me. But there is a clear pattern showing up these days in that the Oilers seem to want to avoid any long term commitments until the kids are signed.

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07-06-2012, 07:04 AM
  #352
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3.5 mil/yr cap hit for Dubnyk?

WTF????

Am i missing something here or is this an atrocious deal? I thought that he would get Harding money at best and now he's getting paid almost Schneider money and equal to Rask?
I know that it's only 2 years but i'm flabbergasted at the caphit.
What type of deal will Dubnyk get if he actually proves himself? I'm scared.


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07-06-2012, 07:45 AM
  #353
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This thread is going to make a fool out of a lot of people.

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07-06-2012, 08:20 AM
  #354
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After sleeping on it, I don't have a big issue with the contract itself; it's certainly a large overpay, but it's not my money and it's probably not going to impact the team too badly unless Dubnyk completely melts down next season, leaving us with Khabibulin. However, and this is something I've talked about before WRT other contracts, it's another troubling sign that this management team has no idea how to value players or use negotiating leverage.

When I look at the Petry deal and the Dubnyk deal, I can't believe the same group was responsible for both. Bizarre.

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07-06-2012, 08:25 AM
  #355
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Probably $.5M-$.75M of an overpayment. Hopefully Dubnyk plays most of the games this next year.

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07-06-2012, 08:27 AM
  #356
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Originally Posted by Moose Coleman View Post
After sleeping on it, I don't have a big issue with the contract itself; it's certainly a large overpay, but it's not my money and it's probably not going to impact the team too badly unless Dubnyk completely melts down next season, leaving us with Khabibulin. However, and this is something I've talked about before WRT other contracts, it's another troubling sign that this management team has no idea how to value players or use negotiating leverage.

When I look at the Petry deal and the Dubnyk deal, I can't believe the same group was responsible for both. Bizarre.
I guess with Dubnyk this is his third professional contract, and Petry is just coming of his entry level.

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07-06-2012, 08:28 AM
  #357
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i like the deal and term, its basically "here is starter money, you will be the starter and you have 2 years to cement your place before bunz gets here"

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07-06-2012, 08:29 AM
  #358
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Originally Posted by Hope4theFuture View Post
I guess with Dubnyk this is his third professional contract, and Petry is just coming of his entry level.
Does Dubnyk's deal buy a year of UFA (he's 27 next year). If so, it's actually a bit better.

Also I think Petry will still be a RFA when his new deal is up, so that's his chance to cash in.

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07-06-2012, 09:05 AM
  #359
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I think the Oilers are hoping Bunz is a Holtby, Ward, Price-type guy in the making. We have 2 more entry level years on Roy, three on Bunz. I think ideally you've got Bunz knocking on the door in 2014-2015 and at least making the Oilers stop and think about whether to give Dubnyk a long-term deal at that point. Even if Dubnyk is looking like an average starter, they could probably get away with another short term deal at a similar salary and slowly bring Roy or Bunz into the mix.

This money seems way too high though. 2.5M, 2.75M should have gotten this done. Katz' cash I guess.

Dubnyk will need to win 30+ games with a 2.20GAA and .915+svp each of the next two seasons for it to wash though.

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07-06-2012, 09:25 AM
  #360
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Seems high . Once again, I'd love a performance based contract for Dubnyk.

Doesn't impact signing the kids so I don't care too much.

Put up or shut up time for Dubs.

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07-06-2012, 09:30 AM
  #361
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Originally Posted by Fourier View Post
They would have to offer term as well. It is possible that they would prefer a 2 year $3.5M deal to a 4 year $2.5M deal.

I am not using this comment to suggest that the deal they signed is a good one. The numbers actually surprised me. But there is a clear pattern showing up these days in that the Oilers seem to want to avoid any long term commitments until the kids are signed.
Exactly and I'm sure Dubnyk's camp was fine with that as long as he was paid well. I'd assume that they told him he was going to be the starter so he wanted starter money. I think the contract overall is about 1.5-2 million of an over payment, but I really think that term is key on this deal. If Dubnyk hasn't completely proven himself by the end of the deal they will let him walk.

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07-06-2012, 09:43 AM
  #362
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Originally Posted by dem View Post
Well... I guess there is no doubt Dubnyk is the starter now

Hope he runs with it...
I keep on hearing how everyone is surprised he will be the starter next year? Really?

Did we miss the end part of the season?

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07-06-2012, 09:52 AM
  #363
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hockeyaddict101 View Post
I keep on hearing how everyone is surprised he will be the starter next year? Really?

Did we miss the end part of the season?
or the beginning

it's that middle part that hurt

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07-06-2012, 09:52 AM
  #364
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Originally Posted by zeus3007 View Post
Quite an over reaction here. I was hoping for 2.5, expecting 3. I don't see how anyone can expect some of the figures you guys are spewing out right now, especially those screaming "half". Decent backups get half. Dubs played very well for the last half of last year, and has taken the starting job by the horns. He was letting in way fewer crappy goals too. Is it an overpayment? Sure, by a bit, but you'd think that Tambellini just signed Chris Mason for 10 million a year based on these reactions.
Me too. Said 3 right from the beginning. Slight overpayment in my mind but not as much as this board seems to think.

In reality we can laugh at Schneider's overpayment but that contract then set the bar. What has Schneider really proven in the NHL. He has never been a starter in the NHL.

Yep, Schneider's stats better on a much better team, but he also got 500,000 more. Contracts are based on comparables.

Everyone is laughing at Stauffer using Schneider as a comparable, beside people laughing, I really haven't seen a compelling argument why he is not a comparable.

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07-06-2012, 09:54 AM
  #365
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hockeyaddict101 View Post
Me too. Said 3 right from the beginning. Slight overpayment in my mind but not as much as this board seems to think.

In reality we can laugh at Schneider's overpayment but that contract then set the bar. What has Schneider really proven in the NHL. He has never been a starter in the NHL.

Yep, Schneider's stats better on a much better team, but he also got 500,000 more. Contracts are based on comparables.

Everyone is laughing at Stauffer using Schneider as a comparable, beside people laughing, I really haven't seen a compelling argument why he is not a comparable.
Generally I agree with you but Schneider is significantly ahead of Dubnyk. Vancouver chose him over Luongo for a reason.

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07-06-2012, 10:01 AM
  #366
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Generally I agree with you but Schneider is significantly ahead of Dubnyk. Vancouver chose him over Luongo for a reason.
I think Schneider is going to be better but at this point the records are similar.

Then again, Dubnyk played on an AWFUL defensive team and his save percentage was what .916? (might be off slightly)

You can argue successfully that he has a pretty good save percentage playing for the 29th worst team in the NHL. You can argue slight overpayment but it certainly has not deserved the reaction the board has given it.

Especially at a cap ceiling of 70.2 million.

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07-06-2012, 10:03 AM
  #367
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Not sure how you think Dubnyk is on higher trajectory than Craig Anderson. At least Anderson had a brilliant season and is paid accordingly on that basis. Dubnyk was 20 - 25, had mediocre save %, GAA, and hasn't distinguished himself in anyway, ever, He's been toiling as an NHL backup on the basis of beating out one player, JDD(and hardly at that) and due to a GM that wouldn't fill a key spot better than hiring Khabi. If we got a real reliable goalie instead we're not even having this Dubnyk conversation and he's in the where are they now file.

Next, citing stats is misleading because the team carefully managed Dubnyks starts through much of the season. For the most part they gave him the games they expected the team to do better in.

For instance a look at his starts against some non playoff teams is interesting.

If you were trying to make an Oiler goalie look good who would you start him against i our conference?

Columbus, correct. Dubnyk got ALL 4 games against the hapless blue jackets. The closest thing the Oilers have had to guaranteed win night.

What non playoff division team that has our number would you avoid putting Dubnyk out against? Minnesota, correct, Dubnyk had zero starts against Minny. How'd that happen. Doesn't look random to me.

For the record he had 4 games against the Flames, a safe bet because the Flames had one of the most putrid offences in the league.

He had 3 starts against the other bad team, Colorado.
To me that is proper player development. Do you want to ruin a goaltenders confidence by getting shelled in Vancouver? Give those games to the Vet who has been there and done that. Let your developing goaltender win the games that he should win to prove that he can do that.

Now, I completely agree he is being paid as a starter, when there is no proof that he can be one yet, but we really don't have a choice unless we gave up on him completely. He is our starter now for the next 2 years and that has perhaps been the plan since they brought in Khabi all along.

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07-06-2012, 10:05 AM
  #368
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At only 5% of the the team cap I find it hard to find anything wrong with this contract. If it would have been for longer term I might have had an issue but for only two years, this is not a big deal at all.

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07-06-2012, 10:05 AM
  #369
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Originally Posted by CupofOil View Post
What type of deal will Dubnyk get if he actually proves himself? I'm scared.
This is a great point. If his past performance gets him $3.5M/year, then what does 60 games, 30 wins/30 losses, 2.3 GAA, and a .920 save percentage get him? $6M?

It just sort of clicked for me that Dubnyk was a first round, 14th overall pick, and I think that was likely a consideration in overpaying him. His "pedigree", if you will.

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07-06-2012, 10:06 AM
  #370
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Originally Posted by hockeyaddict101 View Post
Me too. Said 3 right from the beginning. Slight overpayment in my mind but not as much as this board seems to think.

In reality we can laugh at Schneider's overpayment but that contract then set the bar. What has Schneider really proven in the NHL. He has never been a starter in the NHL.

Yep, Schneider's stats better on a much better team, but he also got 500,000 more. Contracts are based on comparables.

Everyone is laughing at Stauffer using Schneider as a comparable, beside people laughing, I really haven't seen a compelling argument why he is not a comparable.
The thing is that Schneider has much more upside than Dubnyk, you can see that by watching them play. There is a reason why he was talked about as such a sought after goalie and being the possible target of offer sheets.
The difference in ability is fairly substantial IMO plus Schneider has played well in meaningful games so that's a big feather in his cap.

I don't think that people can just look at stats and base salaries and career projection on that. For instance, you can look at Price's stats and say that he's only marginally better than Dubnyk but he has won playoff series and he has a better skillset plus has played full seasons as a #1 while Dubnyk hasn't even taken over the #1 role yet.

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07-06-2012, 10:10 AM
  #371
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Originally Posted by CupofOil View Post
The thing is that Schneider has much more upside than Dubnyk, you can see that by watching them play. There is a reason why he was talked about as such a sought after goalie and being the possible target of offer sheets.
The difference in ability is fairly substantial IMO plus Schneider has played well in meaningful games so that's a big feather in his cap.

I don't think that people can just look at stats and base salaries and career projection on that. For instance, you can look at Price's stats and say that he's only marginally better than Dubnyk but he has won playoff series and he has a better skillset plus has played full seasons as a #1.
Upside really only counts on your first contract. After that contract are based on numbers and comparables.

Going forward I would agree 100% that Schneider will pass Dubnyk in numbers and he will be paid more.

But right now, their numbers are similar and that is the bottom line.

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07-06-2012, 10:12 AM
  #372
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Originally Posted by hockeyaddict101 View Post
I keep on hearing how everyone is surprised he will be the starter next year? Really?

Did we miss the end part of the season?
You might want to explain. Even in our stable Khabi is a better goalie than Dubnyk when he's on and could easily end up reversing the table. At some point next season it might look pretty silly paying Dubnyk starter money on the basis of no real precedent.

Also for what amount of games and seasons has Dubnyk, age 26, looked like an NHL starter. Somebody should do a blooper youtube reel of his most infamous moments. Theres enough for a fair sized video.

This is the Oilers management, who haven't made many good decisions with personnel, going out on a hunch.

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07-06-2012, 10:14 AM
  #373
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Originally Posted by CupofOil View Post
The thing is that Schneider has much more upside than Dubnyk, you can see that by watching them play. There is a reason why he was talked about as such a sought after goalie and being the possible target of offer sheets.
The difference in ability is fairly substantial IMO plus Schneider has played well in meaningful games so that's a big feather in his cap.

I don't think that people can just look at stats and base salaries and career projection on that. For instance, you can look at Price's stats and say that he's only marginally better than Dubnyk but he has won playoff series and he has a better skillset plus has played full seasons as a #1 while Dubnyk hasn't even taken over the #1 role yet.
I think goalies overall are crap shoots. You always see guys who look like world beaters for one or two seasons and then fall off a cliff. Sure a guy like Schneider looks great playing clean up for Luongo, but can he play 60 games at the same level?Hard to say.

That's why the term on the Dubnyk deal is the real saving grace. Plus it's such a small commitment relative to the cap that it doesn't really impact the team. Basically, he earns it or he's gone.

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07-06-2012, 10:14 AM
  #374
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Originally Posted by hockeyaddict101 View Post
Upside really only counts on your first contract. After that contract are based on numbers and comparables.

Going forward I would agree 100% that Schneider will pass Dubnyk in numbers and he will be paid more.

But right now, their numbers are similar and that is the bottom line.
Yeah but the crux of the matter is that contracts are not only based on numbers but are also based on projection since these guys are relatively unproven and since IMO, Schneider projects to be the much better goalie (i think he will be top 5-10 in the league one day), i would say that him being paid only 500K more than Dubnyk means that either the Schneider deal is a good deal or the Dubnyk deal is an overpayment, i would say that it's more the latter.
I understand that the Dubnyk deal is a shorter term but still.....
I actually like Dubnyk but i just feel that the Oilers gave this deal because they were possibly worried about him being offer sheeted. It's not a crippling deal by any means but it sets a bad precedent for future negotiations IMO. What happens if he proves himself after the 2 years but is only a marginal starter? Is he going to get north of $5 mil/yr? It could be a concern down the road.

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07-06-2012, 10:15 AM
  #375
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At only 5% of the the team cap I find it hard to find anything wrong with this contract. If it would have been for longer term I might have had an issue but for only two years, this is not a big deal at all.
Pretty much this. I mean I said the same thing about Barker last year for taking a flyer on a guy but at least we know what we're getting with Dubby.

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