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Dubnyk signs for 2 years @ 3.5M Cap Hit

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07-06-2012, 10:20 AM
  #376
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Originally Posted by c4fn8d View Post
To me that is proper player development. Do you want to ruin a goaltenders confidence by getting shelled in Vancouver? Give those games to the Vet who has been there and done that. Let your developing goaltender win the games that he should win to prove that he can do that.

Now, I completely agree he is being paid as a starter, when there is no proof that he can be one yet, but we really don't have a choice unless we gave up on him completely. He is our starter now for the next 2 years and that has perhaps been the plan since they brought in Khabi all along.
Of course its player development. But its fairly disingenious of the Oilers, and really screwing with themselves, to give Dubnyk an easier schedule, carefully manage his games, and in this negotiation now call him the bonafide starter, and cite his W/L record(erroneously) and then overpay him on that basis.

Even last season if Khabi isn't out periods with a back injury he gets more starts than Dubnyk.

It'll be interesting when Dubnyk faces some actual pressure and controversy. Playing on an also ran team is an entirely different experience from playing on one expected to lose. Here I'll brink up Schneider and Rask. Because a top contending team needs to have guys that can step in and play at a very high level. They have to. The expectation of success now had been huge for those clubs.

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07-06-2012, 10:20 AM
  #377
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Originally Posted by CupofOil View Post
Yeah but the crux of the matter is that contracts are not only based on numbers but are also based on projection and since IMO, Schneider projects to be the much better goalie (i think he will be top 5-10 in the league one day) so i would say that him being paid only 500K more than Dubnyk means that either the Schneider deal is a good deal or the Dubnyk deal is an overpayment, i would say that it's more the latter.
I understand that the Dubnyk deal is a shorter term but still.....
Yep some is based on projection Schneider earned 500,000 more a season. As I said perhaps a slight overpayment for Dubnyk. I think 3 was fair.

The whole contract can not be based on "projection", the rest is numbers.

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07-06-2012, 10:26 AM
  #378
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Originally Posted by hockeyaddict101 View Post
Yep some is based on projection Schneider earned 500,000 more a season. As I said perhaps a slight overpayment for Dubnyk. I think 3 was fair.

The whole contract can not be based on "projection", the rest is numbers.
I would say that Harding is a better comparable. Similar numbers, similar upside although Dubnyk is more durable so i would say that since Harding is priced at $1.9 that Dubnyk should have been somewhere between $2,2-$2.5.
It's not necessarily about the numbers, it's about setting a bad precedent by rewarding him for a mediocre body of work. It's worrisome when it comes down to paying a proven Dubnyk.

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07-06-2012, 10:29 AM
  #379
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This thread is going to make a fool out of a lot of people.
I prefer to be an optimist and say this thread will make lots of posters look very wise.

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07-06-2012, 10:31 AM
  #380
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Originally Posted by Replacement View Post
Of course its player development. But its fairly disingenious of the Oilers, and really screwing with themselves, to give Dubnyk an easier schedule, carefully manage his games, and in this negotiation now call him the bonafide starter, and cite his W/L record(erroneously) and then overpay him on that basis.

Even last season if Khabi isn't out periods with a back injury he gets more starts than Dubnyk.

It'll be interesting when Dubnyk faces some actual pressure and controversy. Playing on an also ran team is an entirely different experience from playing on one expected to lose. Here I'll brink up Schneider and Rask. Because a top contending team needs to have guys that can step in and play at a very high level. They have to. The expectation of success now had been huge for those clubs.
So Schneider and Rask didn't get the benefit of easier starts? The second game of a back-to-back, etc?

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07-06-2012, 10:33 AM
  #381
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Originally Posted by CupofOil View Post
I would say that Harding is a better comparable. Similar numbers, similar upside although Dubnyk is more durable so i would say that since Harding is priced at $1.9 that Dubnyk should have been somewhere between $2,2-$2.5.
It's not necessarily about the numbers, it's about setting a bad precedent by rewarding him for a mediocre body of work. It's worrisome when it comes down to paying a proven Dubnyk.
See I disagree with the mediocre part. Dubnyk is a .916 goaltender on a bad team. How are those numbers bad or mediocre?

IMO the problem is that we watch every game and see him let in a bad goal and forget that every goaltender lets in bad goals.

Harding is a backup, we are fooling ourselves if we think there is ANY chance this year that Khabibulin plays ahead of Dubnyk.

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07-06-2012, 10:37 AM
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See I disagree with the mediocre part. Dubnyk is a .916 goaltender on a bad team. How are those numbers bad or mediocre?

IMO the problem is that we watch every game and see him let in a bad goal and forget that every goaltender lets in bad goals.

Harding is a backup, we are fooling ourselves if we think there is ANY chance this year that Khabibulin plays ahead of Dubnyk.
Dubnyk was a backup also until the last 30 games or so last season.
I say mediocre because he hasn't proven enough yet. His numbers are based on a small sample size most of which he was playing as a backup so Khabby was getting the tougher games and his numbers improved as the pressure of the games lessened after the Oilers were clearly out of contention.
This contract is based on projection more than anything he has proven IMO. It's apparent that they are going to hand the starting job to him and hope that he runs with it, lets hope for the Oilers sake that he does.

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07-06-2012, 10:39 AM
  #383
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Originally Posted by CupofOil View Post
Dubnyk was a backup also until the last 30 games or so.
I say mediocre because hasn't proven enough yet. His numbers are based on a small sample size most of which he was playing as a backup so Khabby was getting the tougher games.
This contract is based on projection more than anything he has proven IMO. It's apparent that they are going to hand the starting job to him and hope that he runs with it, lets hope for the Oilers sake that he does.
Hmm. So Schneider was getting the tougher games in Vancouver as a backup. Have to prove that one to me.

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07-06-2012, 10:42 AM
  #384
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Hmm. So Schneider was getting the tougher games in Vancouver as a backup. Have to prove that one to me.
Granted but Schneider has played well in playoff games so much so that he started to take over the reigns during the playoffs from one of the best goalies in the game so that makes a difference.
He also had a .929 and .937 sv pct. the last 2 seasons. I don't care how good the D is in front of you, that's incredibly impressive.

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07-06-2012, 10:43 AM
  #385
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Originally Posted by CupofOil View Post
Granted but Schneider has played well in playoff games so much so that he started to take over the reigns during the playoffs so that makes a difference.
Yes and Dubnyk played on a terrible team and still managed a .916 percentage. As you can see for every you can make for Schneider I can find a counter and if I can, so can Dubnyk's agent!

Just not seeing the huge overpay argument.

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07-06-2012, 10:49 AM
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Originally Posted by c4fn8d View Post
So Schneider and Rask didn't get the benefit of easier starts? The second game of a back-to-back, etc?
I know less about the Bruins. I know with Schneider the Canucks have seen him in pressure packed situations, they've seen him in the playoffs, they've seen him play excellent under pressure, most observers realizing he's seriously pushing Luongo at the moment and that the Nucks needed Schneider for those moments when Luongo folds.

Its a huge thing for Vancouver because of where they've been. i.e. in contending status.

I do find it funny that the Oilers in 29th place pay as much for goaltending as most of the top contending teams do. I shudder to think how bad we would be if we paid less on goaltending..

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07-06-2012, 10:56 AM
  #387
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My theory of the day:

Tambo and Dubnyk agreed to a fair 2 year deal but then ....

Tambo: "its real slow these days, I will give you 750K extra per year just so the Oil fans over at HFboards will have something to talk about for the next little while."

Dubnyk: " aaaaaa.. wont that upset Katz ?"

Tambo: "dont worry about it.. just thank Petry on your way out"

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07-06-2012, 10:57 AM
  #388
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Originally Posted by Replacement View Post
I know less about the Bruins. I know with Schneider the Canucks have seen him in pressure packed situations, they've seen him in the playoffs, they've seen him play excellent under pressure, most observers realizing he's seriously pushing Luongo at the moment and that the Nucks needed Schneider for those moments when Luongo folds.

Its a huge thing for Vancouver because of where they've been. i.e. in contending status.

I do find it funny that the Oilers in 29th place pay as much for goaltending as most of the top contending teams do. I shudder to think how bad we would be if we paid less on goaltending..
The statement that the Oilers made is one of high risk. Dubnyk is a starter and we will pay him as one. As far as paying starting goaltenders it is in the range. The risk is in declaring Dubnyk as being ready (or capable) for the role. The Oilers mitigated that risk by shortening the term. If Dubnyk wanted a longer term, I'm sure the dollar value would have significantly fallen per year. It is risk never-the-less and we will have to wait and see if it pays off or not. Either way it's probably still too high, we will have to wait it out these next 2 years to see how much.

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07-06-2012, 10:58 AM
  #389
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I'm hoping they Oilers gave Devan more now so that when it comes to resign him in 2 years and we have to re-allocate money to Nuge Ebs Hall Schultz etc he won't have such high demands.

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07-06-2012, 11:09 AM
  #390
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Originally Posted by hockeyaddict101 View Post
Yes and Dubnyk played on a terrible team and still managed a .916 percentage. As you can see for every you can make for Schneider I can find a counter and if I can, so can Dubnyk's agent!

Just not seeing the huge overpay argument.
Why are you defending this overpayment?

Schneider was good enough to get 29 starts despite being the backup for Roberto friggin Luongo

He out performed Luongo in just about every category by a fair margin. winning 70% of games, less then 2.00GAA and 94% save%.

Luongo was no slouch and had better stats in every catergory then Dubnyk.

Just agree that Dubnyk got overpaid by about 750K and this discussion will be over.

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07-06-2012, 11:09 AM
  #391
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Originally Posted by Petro Points View Post
My theory of the day:

Tambo and Dubnyk agreed to a fair 2 year deal but then ....

Tambo: "its real slow these days, I will give you 750K extra per year just so the Oil fans over at HFboards will have something to talk about for the next little while."

Dubnyk: " aaaaaa.. wont that upset Katz ?"

Tambo: "dont worry about it.. just thank Petry on your way out"
You'd think Petry would have Dubnyks agent on speeddial by now. We never get these real takes but I wonder what Petry and his agent would really think that Dubs just scored twice as much on a deal.

Also, and I'm a Tom Gilbert fan saying this but how in gods green Earth do the Oilers rationalize giving Petry peanuts when they paid Gilbert 4M/ on a longterm deal? Seems a bit odd.

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07-06-2012, 11:15 AM
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Originally Posted by Petro Points View Post
Why are you defending this overpayment?

Schneider was good enough to get 29 starts despite being the backup for Roberto friggin Luongo

He out performed Luongo in just about every category by a fair margin. winning 70% of games, less then 2.00GAA and 94% save%.

Luongo was no slouch and had better stats in every catergory then Dubnyk.


Just agree that Dubnyk got overpaid by about 750K and this discussion will be over.
More to the point Luongo is better than our present version of Khabi.

Schneider, if he was an Oiler would've had considerably more opportunity here to wrestle the starter position and would've looked much more capable doing it. He's just a much better goalie right now than either Dubnyk or Khabi. Buts he's had more to compete with. Despite what people think of Luongo its harder being his understudy, or Thomas's understudy. Thats why the Scneider and Rask comparisons are odd. with both of those goalies they would be far more advanced then they are now career wise on a team like this.

Dubnyk as I've mentioned has lived a charmed life. To become the 7M man all he ever had to do in this org is beat out JDD, look reasonable compared to a declining Khabi, and cross your fingers that your GM never notices several free agent or waiver goalies swimming downstream..

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07-06-2012, 11:16 AM
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It's a 2 year deal, one of which is UFA. The team has a lot of cap space. And the goalie market was recently inflated by some big contracts to unproven (if more highly hyped) RFA players. And there is ***** else on the market.

It seems higher than I expected, but the price won't affect the Oilers much. It's not my money.

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07-06-2012, 11:17 AM
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Originally Posted by Petro Points View Post
Why are you defending this overpayment?

Schneider was good enough to get 29 starts despite being the backup for Roberto friggin Luongo

He out performed Luongo in just about every category by a fair margin. winning 70% of games, less then 2.00GAA and 94% save%.

Luongo was no slouch and had better stats in every catergory then Dubnyk.

Just agree that Dubnyk got overpaid by about 750K and this discussion will be over.
Yeah and speaking of bad goals. How many of us laughed at Luongo in every playoff thread for the last 3 years, and showed video of his bad goals during the regular season and playoffs?

But suddenly now he is King Luongo! Priceless!

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07-06-2012, 11:22 AM
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Originally Posted by Replacement View Post
You'd think Petry would have Dubnyks agent on speeddial by now. We never get these real takes but I wonder what Petry and his agent would really think that Dubs just scored twice as much on a deal.

Also, and I'm a Tom Gilbert fan saying this but how in gods green Earth do the Oilers rationalize giving Petry peanuts when they paid Gilbert 4M/ on a longterm deal? Seems a bit odd.
Gilbert has the numbers to back up his play (40+ points) and was also signed to a longer deal.
Petry's deal is more like "show me you deserve 4M" ala Smid and Peckham's RFa deals.

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07-06-2012, 11:22 AM
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Originally Posted by c4fn8d View Post
The statement that the Oilers made is one of high risk. Dubnyk is a starter and we will pay him as one. As far as paying starting goaltenders it is in the range. The risk is in declaring Dubnyk as being ready (or capable) for the role. The Oilers mitigated that risk by shortening the term. If Dubnyk wanted a longer term, I'm sure the dollar value would have significantly fallen per year. It is risk never-the-less and we will have to wait and see if it pays off or not. Either way it's probably still too high, we will have to wait it out these next 2 years to see how much.
Perfectly reasonable post. I realize it doesn't matter, and doesn't hurt us capwise, and not overcommitting in length.

I think if anything sometimes I'm discouraged that the Oilers just think that Dubnyk is this good. When far better goalies have been imminently available through the years.

I mean if we had in mind to throw 7,5M at goalies really the sky is the limit. We're doing it and we got Khabi and Dubnyk. Not my money and thats a good thing..

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07-06-2012, 11:26 AM
  #397
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Also, and I'm a Tom Gilbert fan saying this but how in gods green Earth do the Oilers rationalize giving Petry peanuts when they paid Gilbert 4M/ on a longterm deal? Seems a bit odd.
Learned from their mistake?

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07-06-2012, 11:26 AM
  #398
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Yeah and speaking of bad goals. How many of us laughed at Luongo in every playoff thread for the last 3 years, and showed video of his bad goals during the regular season and playoffs?

But suddenly now he is King Luongo! Priceless!
so is Luongo a bad goalie? We laughed at his bad goals because we hate the Canucks and because it feels good to see the "franchise" goalies like Luongo, Kipper and Brodeur choke.

Luongo is still a great goalie but his contract is probably his biggest enemy.
Hopefully this does not become the case for 7M dollar man Dubnyk here in EDM.

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07-06-2012, 11:27 AM
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Gilbert has the numbers to back up his play (40+ points) and was also signed to a longer deal.
Petry's deal is more like "show me you deserve 4M" ala Smid and Peckham's RFa deals.
Like I say I'm a Gilbert fan saying that. But usually a longterm deal means lower cost/year although with Gilbert its free agent years involved but still.

I'd be a bit asshurt anyway that clowns like Peckham and Barker made more money off this club then Petry. Could occasionally screw with a guys head and I'm not convinced its the best thing for Chemistry when stuff like that happens.

In other words the same club that lowballed you takes flyers on project players playing them bettr and pays an unproven Dubnyk twice as much.

This club seems to pick favorites contractually. My concern being its rarely the ones that should be receiving that coin.

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07-06-2012, 11:28 AM
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Learned from their mistake?
Dubnyk? Nah, I don't think anything has been learned.

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