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Dubnyk signs for 2 years @ 3.5M Cap Hit

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Old
07-06-2012, 11:31 AM
  #401
Moose Coleman
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Originally Posted by JonQuixote View Post
It's a 2 year deal, one of which is UFA. The team has a lot of cap space. And the goalie market was recently inflated by some big contracts to unproven (if more highly hyped) RFA players. And there is ***** else on the market.

It seems higher than I expected, but the price won't affect the Oilers much. It's not my money.
/thread.

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07-06-2012, 11:32 AM
  #402
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Like I say I'm a Gilbert fan saying that. But usually a longterm deal means lower cost/year although with Gilbert its free agent years involved but still.

I'd be a bit asshurt anyway that clowns like Peckham and Barker made more money off this club then Petry. Could occasionally screw with a guys head and I'm not convinced its the best thing for Chemistry when stuff like that happens.
dont forget the Tambo just resigned a #6\#7 Dman Andy Sutton to the exact same dollar amount ($1.75M)

wrong thread but Petry deserves a lot more.

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07-06-2012, 11:34 AM
  #403
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Originally Posted by Petro Points View Post
so is Luongo a bad goalie? We laughed at his bad goals because we hate the Canucks and because it feels good to see the "franchise" goalies like Luongo, Kipper and Brodeur choke.

Luongo is still a great goalie but his contract is probably his biggest enemy.
Hopefully this does not become the case for 7M dollar man Dubnyk here in EDM.
Not a bad goaltender but speaking of overpayments and bad term, Luongo is a perfect example and I said so at the time.

In reality he is getting moved because of his contract and that they have what they hope (again he hasn't proven anything yet) is a capable starter.

Basically what I am hearing is Schneider has better hype and thus should be paid WAY more than Dubnyk. That argument is not moving me. Wonderful everybody here "projects" him to be better. Good, that projection is NOT the whole ball of wax.

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07-06-2012, 11:43 AM
  #404
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Originally Posted by hockeyaddict101 View Post
Not a bad goaltender but speaking of overpayments and bad term, Luongo is a perfect example and I said so at the time.

In reality he is getting moved because of his contract and that they have what they hope (again he hasn't proven anything yet) is a capable starter.

Basically what I am hearing is Schneider has better hype and thus should be paid WAY more than Dubnyk. That argument is not moving me. Wonderful everybody here "projects" him to be better. Good, that projection is NOT the whole ball of wax.
Schneider has the hype because he is a very good goalie. Just because he has been a backup like Dubnyk does not mean he is at the same level as Dubnyk.

Schneider would not have taken 60 games to snatch away the starting role from 0 wins Khabibulin. Also, Vancouver would not be shopping Luongo if Dubnyk was their backup.

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07-06-2012, 11:47 AM
  #405
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Originally Posted by Petro Points View Post
Schneider has the hype because he is a very good goalie. Just because he has been a backup like Dubnyk does not mean he is at the same level as Dubnyk.

Schneider would not have taken 60 games to snatch away the starting role from 0 wins Khabibulin. Also, Vancouver would not be shopping Luongo if Dubnyk was their backup.
Yes, he is a good goaltender playing behind one of the best teams in the NHL. Dubnyk had a .916 percentage playing on the 29th team.

I am not not arguing that Schneider is not a good goaltender I am arguing that Dubnyk in MORE games played pretty well last year. You have to wonder how the goalies would have fared if the situations were reversed? You can argue the numbers both ways. Anything else is projection and opinion. That will only get you so far.

You and I can agree that Schneider will most likely be the better goaltender (and I think we both agree) but that is projection. Right now that projection and opinion earned him 500,000 more per year. Until there is more proof, I am sorry I don't see the huge overpay.

And even if Dubnyk falls on his ass, how does that really affect the Oilers cap space going forward? They walk away as he is UFA.


Last edited by hockeyaddict101: 07-06-2012 at 11:52 AM.
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07-06-2012, 11:48 AM
  #406
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Originally Posted by Replacement View Post
Dubnyk? Nah, I don't think anything has been learned.
It's not a six year deal at least.

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07-06-2012, 11:49 AM
  #407
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Originally Posted by Petro Points View Post
dont forget the Tambo just resigned a #6\#7 Dman Andy Sutton to the exact same dollar amount ($1.75M)

wrong thread but Petry deserves a lot more.
He's not using up any UFA years. Makes a big difference in the AAV.

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07-06-2012, 11:51 AM
  #408
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Originally Posted by Hockey Fan #751 View Post
He's not using up any UFA years. Makes a big difference in the AAV.
Pavelec is using up a lot of ufa years and his contract is only 400k more than Dubnyk's.

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07-06-2012, 12:01 PM
  #409
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Originally Posted by hockeyaddict101 View Post
Yes, he is a good goaltender playing behind one of the best teams in the NHL. Dubnyk had a .916 percentage playing on the 29th team.

You and I can agree that Schneider will most likely be the better goaltender (and I think we both agree) but that is projection. Right now that projection and opinion earned him 500,000 more per year. Until there is more proof, I am sorry I don't see the huge overpay.
And even if Dubnyk falls on his ass, how does that really affect the Oilers cap space going forward? They walk away as he is UFA.
stopping 94% of the shots no matter what team you are on makes you a great goalie.

Also, unless there is more proof I can argue that Tobias friggin Reider is as good a player as Yakupov. I dont buy the hype and projection created by the fans, media, GMs and scouts since age, size and junior production is very comparable.

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07-06-2012, 12:04 PM
  #410
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Originally Posted by Petro Points View Post
stopping 94% of the shots no matter what team you are on makes you a great goalie.

Also, unless there is more proof I can argue that Tobias friggin Reider is as good a player as Yakupov. I dont buy the hype and projection created by the fans, media, GMs and scouts since age, size and junior production is very comparable.
Yes he has greater hype and he got paid more because of it. We are now going in circles.

We are not convincing each other of anything. Going to have to agree to disagree. Enjoyed the discussion though. (not sarcastic, hard to know how it reads sometimes)

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07-06-2012, 12:06 PM
  #411
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Originally Posted by Hockey Fan #751 View Post
He's not using up any UFA years. Makes a big difference in the AAV.
so what? Petry is entering his prime while Sutton is finishing off his career.
Why sign that contract when you can wait for an offersheet that will surely be more then 2M.
Would 1.75M even get EDM a 3rd rounder as compensation? Not sure what Petry's agent was thinking but he sure could have borrowed one of Tambo's pictures in a compromising position from Dubnyk's agent.

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07-06-2012, 12:09 PM
  #412
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Originally Posted by hockeyaddict101 View Post
Yes he has greater hype and he got paid more because of it. We are now going in circles.

We are not convincing each other of anything. Going to have to agree to disagree. Enjoyed the discussion though.
There's more than just hype attached to Schneider. He's played incredibly well for Vancouver. I think we'll both agree that Luongo is better than Dubnyk and Schneider outperformed him with the same team playing in front of him. 3.5M is a mild overpay for Dubnyk. I recognize we're paying him to be the starter but now he has to prove he's a starter for real. Most people believe Schneider has already proven he's a starter.

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07-06-2012, 12:17 PM
  #413
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Originally Posted by Petro Points View Post
so what? Petry is entering his prime while Sutton is finishing off his career.
Why sign that contract when you can wait for an offersheet that will surely be more then 2M.
Would 1.75M even get EDM a 3rd rounder as compensation? Not sure what Petry's agent was thinking but he sure could have borrowed one of Tambo's pictures in a compromising position from Dubnyk's agent.
The only explanation I have is that Petry and his agent wanted to wait until he's had more seasoning and demand a really large contract later based on solid performance on a consistent basis. One good season isn't enough to demand a huge pay day and I'm betting the Oilers used that in negotiations.

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07-06-2012, 12:19 PM
  #414
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Ok I am open. Find me some better comparables, and no backup goaltenders.

And if the comparable is a few years old you will need to adjust for the salary cap.

Besides the back-up goaltender comparision I haven't see any other comparables to back up the point that he is overpaid.

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07-06-2012, 12:20 PM
  #415
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Originally Posted by Petro Points View Post
so what? Petry is entering his prime while Sutton is finishing off his career.
Why sign that contract when you can wait for an offersheet that will surely be more then 2M.
Would 1.75M even get EDM a 3rd rounder as compensation? Not sure what Petry's agent was thinking but he sure could have borrowed one of Tambo's pictures in a compromising position from Dubnyk's agent.
That's be a long wait given how rare offer sheets are.

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07-06-2012, 12:28 PM
  #416
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What a farce. Who cares if he's foregoing free agency yr/s in this deal.

How much is a goalie with approx 36 career wins really worth going into unrestricted free agency?

After this brief deal he'll bounce around the league for league minimum i'm sure.

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07-06-2012, 12:34 PM
  #417
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Originally Posted by hockeyaddict101 View Post
Ok I am open. Find me some better comparables, and no backup goaltenders.

And if the comparable is a few years old you will need to adjust for the salary cap.

Besides the back-up goaltender comparision I haven't see any other comparables to back up the point that he is overpaid.
Craig Anderson
Jonas Gustavsson (when Toronto signed him thinking he was the savior)
Seymon Varlamov
Thomas Vokun
Jaroslav Halak
Kari Lehtonen

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07-06-2012, 12:43 PM
  #418
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Originally Posted by Petro Points View Post
Craig Anderson
Jonas Gustavsson (when Toronto signed him thinking he was the savior)
Seymon Varlamov
Thomas Vokun
Jaroslav Halak
Kari Lehtonen
Best comparable is actually Rask. Played behind one of the best goaltenders in the NHL so the .929 save percentage is probably a little inflated (hey that argument was used against Dubnyk and he wasn't playing behind one of the best goaltenders in the nhl) )Age 25. Played 23 games last year. Obviously hasn't proven a thing and was handed the number one job because Thomas decided he had better things to do. So we can argue that he didn't earn it anymore than Dubnyk. Contract 3,500,000 and signed this year!

Very similar situations.

Frankly can't think of a better comparable.

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07-06-2012, 12:45 PM
  #419
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Originally Posted by hockeyaddict101 View Post
I think Schneider is going to be better but at this point the records are similar.

Then again, Dubnyk played on an AWFUL defensive team and his save percentage was what .916? (might be off slightly)

You can argue successfully that he has a pretty good save percentage playing for the 29th worst team in the NHL. You can argue slight overpayment but it certainly has not deserved the reaction the board has given it.

Especially at a cap ceiling of 70.2 million.
It's not entirely clear how much the defence playing in front of a goalie affects sv %:

http://nhlnumbers.com/2012/7/3/shot-...s-but-how-much


Last edited by speeds: 07-06-2012 at 12:52 PM.
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07-06-2012, 12:53 PM
  #420
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It's not entirely clear how much the defence playing in front of a goalies affects sv %:

http://nhlnumbers.com/2012/7/3/shot-...s-but-how-much

Ah the law of numbers. We are really talking about minute difference anyway. So it is easy to argue that shot quality doesn't make a huge difference. When we are talking about 10ths of a percentage point.

Of course the numbers are going to be small.

The question is what numbers can the NHL use? Is there a better stat?

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07-06-2012, 12:58 PM
  #421
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Very similar situations.

Frankly can't think of a better comparable.
I'll be the first to say I think the deal is better than I initially thought, but some possible comparables might be:


Reimer
Quick
Neuvirth
Howard
Crawford

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07-06-2012, 12:58 PM
  #422
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Originally Posted by hockeyaddict101 View Post
Best comparable is actually Rask. Played behind one of the best goaltenders in the NHL so the .929 save percentage is probably a little inflated (hey that argument was used against Dubnyk and he wasn't playing behind one of the best goaltenders in the nhl) )Age 25. Played 23 games last year. Obviously hasn't proven a thing and was handed the number one job because Thomas decided he had better things to do. So we can argue that he didn't earn it anymore than Dubnyk. Contract 3,500,000 and signed this year!

Very similar situations.

Frankly can't think of a better comparable.
yah no..
Rask has been ready for NHL starting role for 2 years now. He had a 20 win season back in 2009. Rask vs Schneider comparison is good since both seemed NHL ready but were stuck behind "franchise" goalies.

.

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07-06-2012, 12:59 PM
  #423
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Here is Jason Gregor looking at some comparables and like me argues that he is not as overpaid as many think.

http://oilersnation.com/2012/7/6/tho...try-and-gagner

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07-06-2012, 01:21 PM
  #424
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Interesting that Stauffer is going to have Dubnyk's agent on to say why he had a compelling case and why if he would have went to arbitration he had a very compelling case. As I suggested it is all in the numbers.

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07-06-2012, 01:41 PM
  #425
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Wow I can't believe Tambo actually negotiated down to 3.5 million. What was the original asking price? 5 million? I'm not a big fan of Dubby at all. If he was 6'2 would he be in the NHL? His only strength is his height.

We're paying over 7 million for this duo of goalies oh lord. Tambo you have outdone yourself.

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