If somebody wants to bump this thread in 2 years I know I won't have anything embarrassed to read. This deal is outrageous. I hope like hell Dubnyk plays well enough one day to earn it but based on what he's done so far this salary is almost double what he should be getting.
I don't intend to cheer against Dubz because I want this team to succeed as much as the next Oiler fan. I'm just critical of rewarding contracts to mediocrity.
I hope Dubz proves me wrong and becomes a good goalie but in the meantime; I'm not a fan of his game or his contract.
What were you expecting? Did you think it would be lower than 2.5, because nobody should have. Like i said a bit of an overpayment, but i think we all knew a deal for 3 per had a reasonable chance of happening. Dubnyk is a very solid bet, and on a 2 year contract he doesn't present much risk. His contract takes up 5% of the cap, i think we can deal with that.
I thought 2.5m was the proper number that is fair for both sides, 3m would have been overpaying him and 3.5m is insane for what he has accomplished thus far (not a whole lot).
"Last time we grossly overpaid an old goalie based on his past accomplishments. I don't want to make the same mistake twice so we decided to grossly overpay a young goalie with absolutely no track record whatsoever. I'm a f**king genius!"-Tambo
Am I the only one with no faith in Tamby during negotiations. What real leverage did Dubnyk have to demand this contract. Then Sutton being a 7dman wanting to stay gets overpaid.
Sure its small overpayments but if 23 players are all slightly overpaid it will be hard to get good bang for the buck in a cap world
Edit: Just remembered the terrible Bulin contract when the goalie market was flooded. Maybe Tamby just sucks at guaging goalies
For me it's more the term of the overpayments (see Horcoff and Khabby). If you over pay a guy slightly for one or two seasons, that's not a huge deal to me (especially if you're trying to get to the cap floor). But, if you're overpaying a lot for a long time, that's more inexcusable IMO.
After mulling it over... whatever. This deal is the equivalent of 1.7 to 2 million per four or five years ago. The NHL is flipping nuts right now and everybody is overpaying for mediocrity.
I agree. Maybe a few years ago when the cap was 50 million I would've had an issue with it, but a 70 million cap? 3.5 a season on a starting goalie isn't a horrible deal.
People will flip out about it though, because that's what goes on here. I happen to think that Dubnyk isn't that bad, but he'll always get a bad rap here because of that contract. Which is sad, really.
Quite an over reaction here. I was hoping for 2.5, expecting 3. I don't see how anyone can expect some of the figures you guys are spewing out right now, especially those screaming "half". Decent backups get half. Dubs played very well for the last half of last year, and has taken the starting job by the horns. He was letting in way fewer crappy goals too. Is it an overpayment? Sure, by a bit, but you'd think that Tambellini just signed Chris Mason for 10 million a year based on these reactions.
What is really hilarious is thinking about what number his agent started with?
DD: "What number are you going to start with?"
Agent: "Don't worry Dubs. I will throw out a stupid and ridiculous number and we will probably have to negotiate. In the end, meeting half way will still put you on top!"
Agent: "Hey Steve, we want 4.5"
Steve: "No. We will give you 2.5"
Steve: "I got em right where I want them.......he he"
Agent: "Steve. Lets just meet in the middle then?"
Steve: "You got yourself a deal!"
$3.5? To let in an AHL goal a night? How in the world did he do anything to deserve that? That seems like a Kevin Lowe wishful thinking contract. I agree he looked much better down the stretch but I haven't seen anywhere near a $3.5 million dollar goalie there. Well, its obvious this organization is a lot higher on this kid than I am.
Hope they are right and I'm wrong.
This bad goal a night rhetoric really gets me. If Dubnyk did let in a bad goal every game he played in his sv% would be .944 if he eliminated them all. However i think we can all agree all goalies let in bad goals from time to time, so lets say a reasonable expectation is for him to eliminate half of the bad goals he supposedly lets in (47games/2=24 rounded up). Eliminating half of the bad goals per game would give him a sv% of 0.926, this would be all star caliber numbers. To put that in perspective, this year he would have placed 8th out of goalies with 20 plus games, 5th out of starters, 1st on nonplayoff teams, and even ahead of guys like Rinne, Lehtonen, Kippersoff, Backstrom, Thomas, Howard, Miller, and other established stars.
When you consider that Edmonton supposedly had one of the NHL's worst defense's these numbers would be Veznia caliber. I do think Dubnyk could cut down on the softies, but realisticly we're talking about one goal every three games tops. If Dubnyk really is letting in as many weak goals as you claim then his goaltending the rest of the time is otherworldly. Last year i remeber people lamenting an Andy MacDonald shot from in the slot ona 2 on 1 as a bad goal, so i'm thinking some of you are more than a little harsh in what you are considering "softies".
I was expecting about 3 so this isn't 2 bad. At least its short term. People are getting too caught up with him letting in the occasion soft goal. He makes a lot of saves he has no business making too... If he can shake the weak start to the season I see no reason he can't earn this contract