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Dubnyk signs for 2 years @ 3.5M Cap Hit

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Old
07-05-2012, 06:58 PM
  #176
czar99
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I have a theory!

Dubbys agent- we need $2.5million a year.

Tambo- not happening

DA- 2.25

T- tell you what I'll give you 3.5 over two years but, in two years after I've uped ebbs and Hall you and nuge will be due again and you can count this as $3 million advance on your next contract.

DA- ok!

Whadayahthink?

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07-05-2012, 07:01 PM
  #177
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I assume we overpaid a bit to get him to agree on the two year term. If that's the case, I'm OK with this. If he doesn't improve any, then sucking up his contract for two years is better than three or four.

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07-05-2012, 07:02 PM
  #178
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Originally Posted by Eskimo44 View Post
This bad goal a night rhetoric really gets me. If Dubnyk did let in a bad goal every game he played in his sv% would be .944 if he eliminated them all. However i think we can all agree all goalies let in bad goals from time to time, so lets say a reasonable expectation is for him to eliminate half of the bad goals he supposedly lets in (47games/2=24 rounded up). Eliminating half of the bad goals per game would give him a sv% of 0.926, this would be all star caliber numbers. To put that in perspective, this year he would have placed 8th out of goalies with 20 plus games, 5th out of starters, 1st on nonplayoff teams, and even ahead of guys like Rinne, Lehtonen, Kippersoff, Backstrom, Thomas, Howard, Miller, and other established stars.

When you consider that Edmonton supposedly had one of the NHL's worst defense's these numbers would be Veznia caliber. I do think Dubnyk could cut down on the softies, but realisticly we're talking about one goal every three games tops. If Dubnyk really is letting in as many weak goals as you claim then his goaltending the rest of the time is otherworldly. Last year i remeber people lamenting an Andy MacDonald shot from in the slot ona 2 on 1 as a bad goal, so i'm thinking some of you are more than a little harsh in what you are considering "softies".
lol Well ok then. The math crowd deems him a good goalie. I stand corrected.

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07-05-2012, 07:03 PM
  #179
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Originally Posted by Eskimo44 View Post
This bad goal a night rhetoric really gets me. If Dubnyk did let in a bad goal every game he played in his sv% would be .944 if he eliminated them all. However i think we can all agree all goalies let in bad goals from time to time, so lets say a reasonable expectation is for him to eliminate half of the bad goals he supposedly lets in (47games/2=24 rounded up). Eliminating half of the bad goals per game would give him a sv% of 0.926, this would be all star caliber numbers. To put that in perspective, this year he would have placed 8th out of goalies with 20 plus games, 5th out of starters, 1st on nonplayoff teams, and even ahead of guys like Rinne, Lehtonen, Kippersoff, Backstrom, Thomas, Howard, Miller, and other established stars.

When you consider that Edmonton supposedly had one of the NHL's worst defense's these numbers would be Veznia caliber. I do think Dubnyk could cut down on the softies, but realisticly we're talking about one goal every three games tops. If Dubnyk really is letting in as many weak goals as you claim then his goaltending the rest of the time is otherworldly. Last year i remeber people lamenting an Andy MacDonald shot from in the slot ona 2 on 1 as a bad goal, so i'm thinking some of you are more than a little harsh in what you are considering "softies".
Exactly! Can we force everyone to read this post before they can post in this thread somehow?

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07-05-2012, 07:04 PM
  #180
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Heh. 3.5... whatever.

Where else are we going to put that money in the next couple seasons? Don't flip out over nothing HFoil... Not your money, and we're not a cap team yet.
because I think people want Tambo to give people what they are worth, and be fiscally responsible.
not throw out millions of dollars because "we're not a cap team and it isn't our money"

I think people are concerned about this contract for good reason, the oilers don't need to start handing out these contracts and end up like the horcoff/Pisani days.

there is a chance DD lives up to this but like most people I don't understand how he got Rask level $$$.
at least it's only two years.

but sorry dude, some of us are not ok with the Oilers just throwing money at people because they can afford it right now.

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07-05-2012, 07:06 PM
  #181
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Yeah but he's not a starting goalie. Not yet, anyway.
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He is now. Whether he's ready for it or not.
He's one half of a goalie tandem that now costs us in excess of $7M this coming season. I'd rather have a really good $6M goalie and an unreliable $1M backup, than 2 $3.5M goalies, when you can only put one of them in the net at a time and neither of them can be counted on, on any given night.

I remember Lowe once saying in an interview that he didn't like the big contracts for the top flight goalies, he'd rather have a decent goalie for half the price than a top flight goalie for double. At the time I agreed with him, but I think I've fully changed my mind at this point. I laughed at Calgary when they signed the Kiprusoff contract, and now I've done a full 180 and would much much rather have Kiprusoff than the mess we've had, even if he's getting older. He's still doing great, at sub $6M, with only 2 seasons left on that. In hindsight it was an outstanding contract, and they could get some great return on that asset if they trade him this year (his NMC expired and they are free to do so).

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07-05-2012, 07:06 PM
  #182
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Originally Posted by Insta View Post
I thought 2.5m was the proper number that is fair for both sides, 3m would have been overpaying him and 3.5m is insane for what he has accomplished thus far (not a whole lot).
I can understand your senteminents, but i don't see how paying your starter all of 1 million more than what's "fair" makes all that much of a difference. The term offers little risk, and 5% of the cap is a marginal amount of salary. The 1 million difference is only an additional 1.5% of the cap, IMO not anything to be overly worked up about. When you consider it's a short term deal for a young player in a key position, i think it's even more palatable.

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07-05-2012, 07:11 PM
  #183
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My question is, how is he making almost double what Harding makes? Aren't they the same goalie?

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07-05-2012, 07:12 PM
  #184
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Originally Posted by Eskimo44 View Post
I can understand your senteminents, but i don't see how paying your starter all of 1 million more than what's "fair" makes all that much of a difference. The term offers little risk, and 5% of the cap is a marginal amount of salary. The 1 million difference is only an additional 1.5% of the cap, IMO not anything to be overly worked up about. When you consider it's a short term deal for a young player in a key position, i think it's even more palatable.
Exactly. DD is the closest thing to a starting goalie we have. Is it worth nickel and diming DD to save $500k? Should we have risked him sitting out training camp over that kind of money?

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07-05-2012, 07:14 PM
  #185
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He's one half of a goalie tandem that now costs us in excess of $7M this coming season. I'd rather have a really good $6M goalie and an unreliable $1M backup, than 2 $3.5M goalies, when you can only put one of them in the net at a time and neither of them can be counted on, on any given night.

I remember Lowe once saying in an interview that he didn't like the big contracts for the top flight goalies, he'd rather have a decent goalie for half the price than a top flight goalie for double. At the time I agreed with him, but I think I've fully changed my mind at this point. I laughed at Calgary when they signed the Kiprusoff contract, and now I've done a full 180 and would much much rather have Kiprusoff than the mess we've had, even if he's getting older. He's still doing great, at sub $6M, with only 2 seasons left on that. In hindsight it was an outstanding contract, and they could get some great return on that asset if they trade him this year (his NMC expired and they are free to do so).
I think most here would agree, but the simple fact is, we can't just go out and get one of those big name, big money goalies. We're working within pretty specific confines.

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07-05-2012, 07:16 PM
  #186
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lol Well ok then. The math crowd deems him a good goalie. I stand corrected.
Oh i don't think it's a sure thing that he will be a top 15 starter over this deal (which is what IMO he'd have to be for this to be value), i would call it a good bet though. I'd say his performance puts him in top 20 territory, but that can fluctuate both ways. He isn't proven enough to get a deal with term, hence it's only 2 years and even i think .5 too much. However it isn't the kind of "overpay" that will be a sure thing bad contract, nor is it hard to rationalize giving your starter just above cap average money. Scepticism is reasonable, just as optimism is at this point. I'm just trying to point out i think his penchant for soft goals is exaggerated, as is the idea this is some kind of inexcusable grand larceny.

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07-05-2012, 07:17 PM
  #187
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My question is, how is he making almost double what Harding makes? Aren't they the same goalie?
Maybe, I've been a Harding supporter, but he's never found any real consistency. He's also had trouble staying healthy.

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07-05-2012, 07:17 PM
  #188
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It's an obvious overpayment. But he's our starting goaltenter at the moment and I don't see many starters in this league making less than that. Hopefully we see him take his game to the next level this season and make it look like a good deal.

$3.5M doesn't hamper us in any way either. Just glad to see him signed.

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07-05-2012, 07:20 PM
  #189
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It's an obvious overpayment. But he's our starting goaltenter at the moment and I don't see many starters in this league making less than that. Hopefully we see him take his game to the next level this season and make it look like a good deal.

$3.5M doesn't hamper us in any way either. Just glad to see him signed.
Sigh. I'd imagine that that was a big negotiating tactic for Dub's agent. "Is he your starting goaltender? Well?"

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07-05-2012, 07:20 PM
  #190
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Originally Posted by The Last Dynasty View Post
7.25 mil tied up in iffy goaltending...Tambo likes to overpay goalies thats for sure!
He's the dumbest man currently working in professional hockey. A miracle he still has a job.

This is a terrible contract, but I don't even care anymore as long as the deals are short.
If Katz wants to keep these clowns running his show, I don't see why the fans should feel sorry for him when they waste his money.

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That seems like a Kevin Lowe wishful thinking contract.
Actually its worse.
This would be like giving Robert Nilsson $3.5 million after that one half season where he looked like an NHLer.

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What were you expecting? Did you think it would be lower than 2.5, because nobody should have. Like i said a bit of an overpayment, but i think we all knew a deal for 3 per had a reasonable chance of happening.
Really? Cause when I saw the number I just assumed it was the total for two years.
I could have lived with that.


Last edited by harpoon: 07-05-2012 at 07:26 PM.
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07-05-2012, 07:20 PM
  #191
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Originally Posted by Hockey Fan #751 View Post
My question is, how is he making almost double what Harding makes? Aren't they the same goalie?
Guys, the Oilers are not paying Dubnyk for what he's done in the past, but for what he will be doing in the next two years of his contract. It's one of the big differences between contracts of today versus contracts a decade ago.

Harding (2009/10 25 GP, 0.905 SV, 2011/12 34 GP, 0.917 SV)
Dubnyk (2010/11 35 GP, 0.916 SV, 2011/12 47 GP, 0.914 SV)

Harding and Dubnyk may have similar stats but Dubnyk played more games, and had a superior sv percentage the year prior.

But more importantly, Harding is playing behind Nik Backstrom while Dubnyk will be playing IN FRONT of Khabibulin.

Barring injury, which player between Harding and Dubnyk will be getting more starts and be more important to their team? If Dubnyk gets injured or is out, then the Oilers are stuck with Khabibulin. That's bad.

If Harding gets injured or is out, Minnesota has Backstrom who is superior.

Dubnyk is getting paid starter's salary because he will be the starter for the next two seasons.

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07-05-2012, 07:21 PM
  #192
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Theory #2

Khabi gave Dubby the sex tapes that got him his contract.

You know, mentorship and all that jazz.

Sowadayahthink?

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07-05-2012, 07:23 PM
  #193
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Originally Posted by Eskimo44 View Post
This bad goal a night rhetoric really gets me. If Dubnyk did let in a bad goal every game he played in his sv% would be .944 if he eliminated them all. However i think we can all agree all goalies let in bad goals from time to time, so lets say a reasonable expectation is for him to eliminate half of the bad goals he supposedly lets in (47games/2=24 rounded up). Eliminating half of the bad goals per game would give him a sv% of 0.926, this would be all star caliber numbers. To put that in perspective, this year he would have placed 8th out of goalies with 20 plus games, 5th out of starters, 1st on nonplayoff teams, and even ahead of guys like Rinne, Lehtonen, Kippersoff, Backstrom, Thomas, Howard, Miller, and other established stars.

When you consider that Edmonton supposedly had one of the NHL's worst defense's these numbers would be Veznia caliber. I do think Dubnyk could cut down on the softies, but realisticly we're talking about one goal every three games tops. If Dubnyk really is letting in as many weak goals as you claim then his goaltending the rest of the time is otherworldly. Last year i remeber people lamenting an Andy MacDonald shot from in the slot ona 2 on 1 as a bad goal, so i'm thinking some of you are more than a little harsh in what you are considering "softies".
Of course he'd be better if he let in less bad goals. I'd be an elite NHL goal tender if only I could eliminate most of the soft goals I would let in... but I'm not going to just because you sign me to a big contract.

Bad goals are what make bad goalies bad goalies, and mediocre goalies mediocre. While there's a chance he will eliminate a few of the soft goals, it's highly improbably he'll eliminate half of them in one year. All goalies top out, and there are indications that this could very well be the peak for Dubnyk. His year over year performance was not very good, but more importantly, his flaws (being slow and over committing to the first shot) are not easily remedied, let alone by another years experience.

Bottom line, what Dubnyk really deserved after his performance last season was a minor raise and another 1 year deal for yet another chance to prove he's a legitimate goalie. This is a very generous signing for a goalie who has only shown he can be half decent playing half the games.

But don't take my word for it. The commentary from non-Edmonton media, like CBC, has been mostly negative on Dubnyk in the latter half of the season. I remember a comment from someone on CBC about how they'd pollled a number of NHL GMs about Dubnyk and whether they thought he could potentially be a starter, and they all said no.

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07-05-2012, 07:25 PM
  #194
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Maybe, I've been a Harding supporter, but he's never found any real consistency. He's also had trouble staying healthy.
To further this point Harding also wanted to stay in Minny, with Backstrom already there and Hackett coming up he didn't have as much leverage in negotiations as Dubnyk did despite UFA status. In saying that i don't think there is any doubt some other clubs have found a way to get better value for their young goalies.

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07-05-2012, 07:26 PM
  #195
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Not entirely happy about this deal, but the term is great

Dubnyk will be 27 is summer 2013 and is burning a year of his UFA status with this deal

Sometimes you overpay because of that

Bulin is off the books after this season anyways, so the high total for our goalies is only for this season

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07-05-2012, 07:29 PM
  #196
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The ship has sailed on Josh Harding as a starting goaltender in the NHL. He basically signalled that he has no ambition to be one after re-upping with the Wild.

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07-05-2012, 07:31 PM
  #197
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Dubnyk had decent stats in a crappy team so I'm curious to see how he deals with a better team. I was waiting for $3M so there is about 500K overpayment but I'm not going to bury my head in to sand before end of the next season. Maybe on his second year $3.5M is too less for him?

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07-05-2012, 07:32 PM
  #198
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The ship has sailed on Josh Harding as a starting goaltender in the NHL. He basically signalled that he has no ambition to be one after re-upping with the Wild.
lol at this.


Now let me tell you what ACTUALLY happened. The Wild promised Harding that Backstrom would be traded. Backstrom to Toronto should go down sometime this summer. Matt Hackett is ready to step into the NHL and will likely be the starter in 2-3 seasons.

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07-05-2012, 07:33 PM
  #199
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I think most here would agree, but the simple fact is, we can't just go out and get one of those big name, big money goalies. We're working within pretty specific confines.
This year was a bad year for UFAs, but last year there were opportunities. If the attitude of management is that they don't have the confidence to commit to a proven goalie with a big contract, then we're in trouble long term.

You know what's harder to find than a good goalie you can sign to a big UFA contract? A good goalie you can sign to a mid-level UFA contract. Or who's available for trade.

How is this team ever going to compete without a better than mediocre goalie between the pipes? There's so much focus on our defensive shortcomings... I think that's problem #2, and goal tending is actually our worst problem. Since we don't have good goalie development and good goalie scouts (and I'm pretty comfortable with that statement given the recent track record), then you better just shell out for the proven guy, or trade for Luongo, because you're not going to win a cup with an under-performing $3.5M goalie in net.



P.S. - Don't anyone tell me Bunz and/or Roy mean we have good goalie scouts. No we do not. Bunz is doing nicely, but the chicken isn't here until the egg has hatched and Bunz has a loooooooong way to go before he comes to fruition. Remember not that long ago when people were hailing JDD and Dubnyk as an embarrassment of riches? Yeah... how'd that work out? Over-valued prospect syndrome.

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07-05-2012, 07:35 PM
  #200
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Of course he'd be better if he let in less bad goals. I'd be an elite NHL goal tender if only I could eliminate most of the soft goals I would let in... but I'm not going to just because you sign me to a big contract.

Bad goals are what make bad goalies bad goalies, and mediocre goalies mediocre. While there's a chance he will eliminate a few of the soft goals, it's highly improbably he'll eliminate half of them in one year. All goalies top out, and there are indications that this could very well be the peak for Dubnyk. His year over year performance was not very good, but more importantly, his flaws (being slow and over committing to the first shot) are not easily remedied, let alone by another years experience.

Bottom line, what Dubnyk really deserved after his performance last season was a minor raise and another 1 year deal for yet another chance to prove he's a legitimate goalie. This is a very generous signing for a goalie who has only shown he can be half decent playing half the games.

But don't take my word for it. The commentary from non-Edmonton media, like CBC, has been mostly negative on Dubnyk in the latter half of the season. I remember a comment from someone on CBC about how they'd pollled a number of NHL GMs about Dubnyk and whether they thought he could potentially be a starter, and they all said no.
I don't think you can look at Dubnyk's numbers all last season and say that he's topped out to be that goaltender.

His numbers in March and April to close out the season at least show the ability to potentially improve moving forward:

13 GP, 7 W, 4 L, 2 OTL, 2.05 GAA, 0.933 PCT

The problem with his contract is he needs to put up those numbers for 50 games to make his deal a great one at this age. If he does, great foresight by the Oilers. Going to be tough, though.

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