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Dubnyk signs for 2 years @ 3.5M Cap Hit

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Old
07-05-2012, 06:39 PM
  #201
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Garbage money for a garbage goalie IMO.

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07-05-2012, 06:40 PM
  #202
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Originally Posted by stratedge View Post
Of course he'd be better if he let in less bad goals. I'd be an elite NHL goal tender if only I could eliminate most of the soft goals I would let in... but I'm not going to just because you sign me to a big contract.
I see what you are saying but i think you are missing the point. For a goalie on a nonplayoff team Dubnyk had a very solid sv%, it was 23rd out goalies with at least 35 games. If the idea is that only 71 of the goals Dubnyk let in aren't softies, then what you are saying is the Oiler defense would only be giving up 1.5 goals per game(123 per season) with a goalie that did not let in any softies. Again even if you argued an elite goalie would let in half the amount of soft goals that would be a GAA of 2, or 164 goals per year. Your claiming the Oilers would of had had an elite defensive group with upper echelon goaltending, and i just don't think thats true. Unless of course you aren't mentioning that you believe Dubnyk makes more high quality saves than what an upper echelon goalie would.

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07-05-2012, 06:40 PM
  #203
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lmfaaaaaaooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

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07-05-2012, 06:41 PM
  #204
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lol at this.


Now let me tell you what ACTUALLY happened. The Wild promised Harding that Backstrom would be traded. Backstrom to Toronto should go down sometime this summer. Matt Hackett is ready to step into the NHL and will likely be the starter in 2-3 seasons.
Yeah, I doubt it. Burke had all of his chips laid out for Luongo and now that's not happening.

The Leafs are in the same situation as the Oilers - it's Reimer or bust.

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07-05-2012, 06:41 PM
  #205
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Exactly! Can we force everyone to read this post before they can post in this thread somehow?
Not really. Eskimo point assumes that Dubnyk has the ability to clean up half or more of the bad goals he lets in. What if he never does? What if he can't? Its not fair to just say "Oh, if a player magically cuts his errors in half he would be good. Therefore he is good". Why pay the guy extra now just because you assume he's gonna be an AllStar someday?

And while I wouldn't go so far as to say he lets in "one bad goal per game", Dubnyk does let in bad goals - sometimes more than one a game - that's not a myth as someone suggested.

Its great that some fans believe in Dubnyk so much, don't get me wrong. Personally, I've never been a fan of his game and I certainly wouldn't pay him more than $2 million at this stage in his career.

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07-05-2012, 06:44 PM
  #206
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Seems like a waste of time and resources. It's like the Oilers organization is trying to will Dubnyk to be a starter no matter what.

He is overpaid for what he brings but what bugs me the most is that this signals to me that the organization is still gambling with the wait and see (and hope) approach regarding Dubnyk instead of doing everything they can to try to bring in an potentially great goalie today. In other words, I fear that in 2 years time we will be debating what goalie(s) the Oilers should be trying to sign/trade for to make them a better team when they should be getting it over with and settled right now.

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07-05-2012, 06:46 PM
  #207
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Originally Posted by harpoon View Post
Really? Cause when I saw the number I just assumed it was the total for two years.
I could have lived with that.
You have to admit that would be a pretty optimisitc assumption. If the deal was 1.75 everybody would be estatic in this thread. Biron got 1.8 to back up Lundquvist, i don't think we could have expected to pay our starter less than what NY pays a guy to play 20 games at a level worse than what Dubnyk should play at. The cap isn't 39 million anymore.

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07-05-2012, 06:47 PM
  #208
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Originally Posted by Hockey Fan #751 View Post
I don't think you can look at Dubnyk's numbers all last season and say that he's topped out to be that goaltender.

His numbers in March and April to close out the season at least show the ability to potentially improve moving forward:

13 GP, 7 W, 4 L, 2 OTL, 2.05 GAA, 0.933 PCT

The problem with his contract is he needs to put up those numbers for 50 games to make his deal a great one at this age. If he does, great foresight by the Oilers. Going to be tough, though.
Fine, I'm not going to say he's topped out, but I stand my ground that he's not a very good bet to be a top 15 goalie in the NHL. He's got to much ground to cover, and not a lot of momentum to cover it. I think he's shown he can be a good backup, but... that's it, in terms of what he's shown. Anything beyond that is just hope and rainbows.

That 13 game stat line is a very small and selective sample from a guy who played 47 games last year. FOURTY SEVEN. I'm not sure a guy who has played over 100 NHL games deserves to have his 13 most recent broken out and considered separately from all the rest.

Dubnyk finished the 2010/2011 season going 4-4-2, 2.30 GAA, 0.928 SV%, so obviously he is going to have a great season in 2011/12 based on that momentum, right?

Not neccesarily. It just doesn't work like that. Screw stats though, my opinion is based on having seen at least 99 of the 101 NHL games he has played, and what I see in his game. I see a big calm guy who isn't quick and doesn't recover well when the puck moves laterally. That's where I get my permission from.

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07-05-2012, 06:49 PM
  #209
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I think the fact that Renney went back to Khabibulin so damn fast last year after starting Dubnyk in game one against the Penguins set Dubs back a tad. All of a sudden Bulin was ridiculously hot and all of the promise regarding Dubnyk as the starter went out the window.

I mean, hell, Dubnyk won game one against the Penguins and he was still relegated to spot duty for a month and change.

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07-05-2012, 06:59 PM
  #210
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Eskimo44 View Post
I see what you are saying but i think you are missing the point. For a goalie on a nonplayoff team Dubnyk had a very solid sv%, it was 23rd out goalies with at least 35 games. If the idea is that only 71 of the goals Dubnyk let in aren't softies, then what you are saying is the Oiler defense would only be giving up 1.5 goals per game(123 per season) with a goalie that did not let in any softies. Again even if you argued an elite goalie would let in half the amount of soft goals that would be a GAA of 2, or 164 goals per year. Your claiming the Oilers would of had had an elite defensive group with upper echelon goaltending, and i just don't think thats true. Unless of course you aren't mentioning that you believe Dubnyk makes more high quality saves than what an upper echelon goalie would.
I'm not going to lie, I simply do not follow your logic here. I don't get why you're going from something about soft goals, to something about our defence? I don't see any connection between the two.

Dubnyk has a decent save percentage, yes... not impressive, but not bad either. And that's playing barely more than half the games. What if he was the starting goalie outright, and played 65 games next season, to be an actual starter rather than half of a tandem? Common logic says that you'd expect his performance to go down with an increased work load.

There are many changing factors that could alter Dubnyk's save precentage next year... a better, more defensively responsible team in front of him would certainly help. But starting goal tender's work load and more back to back games will not. So, at the end of the day, we'll just have to wait and see.

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07-05-2012, 06:59 PM
  #211
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Originally Posted by harpoon View Post
Not really. Eskimo point assumes that Dubnyk has the ability to clean up half or more of the bad goals he lets in. What if he never does? What if he can't? Its not fair to just say "Oh, if a player magically cuts his errors in half he would be good. Therefore he is good". Why pay the guy extra now just because you assume he's gonna be an AllStar someday?
I think you don't understand. Read my reply to stratedge. I'm not assuming Dubnyk would do anything, i'm establishing a hypothetical scenario where he does. I don't think Dubnyk lets in as many soft goals as you and some others seem to think, i kind of though that was apparent. If he cut down on half the soft goals he let in, based on my rough conclusions that would only be 16 goals (1 for every 3 games), and he would then have a sv% of .926.

Edit: I made some slight errors on my intial post regarding sv%, it seems i used saves as opposed to total shots to calculate his sv%. His sv% would actually be higher than what i wrote in my hypothetical scenario(e.x. .944 should be .949)

Quote:
And while I wouldn't go so far as to say he lets in "one bad goal per game", Dubnyk does let in bad goals - sometimes more than one a game - that's not a myth as someone suggested.
If you are saying i suggested he doesn't let in bad goals then you really don't understand. I said in my conclusion that i think he lets in a few too many softies as well.

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Old
07-05-2012, 07:03 PM
  #212
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Ridiculous amount. 3.5M? For Dubnyk lol

But then again this is the club paying Khabi 4M

What a ridiculous amount to pay for two goalies of this quality.

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07-05-2012, 07:04 PM
  #213
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Originally Posted by stratedge View Post
I'm not going to lie, I simply do not follow your logic here. I don't get why you're going from something about soft goals, to something about our defence? I don't see any connection between the two.
Because GA are determined by defense and goaltending.... I'm isolating a variable (Dubnyk's penchant for softies) and trying to figure out what would happen without it, or with it decreased.

Quote:
Dubnyk has a decent save percentage, yes... not impressive, but not bad either. And that's playing barely more than half the games. What if he was the starting goalie outright, and played 65 games next season, to be an actual starter rather than half of a tandem? Common logic says that you'd expect his performance to go down with an increased work load.
Thats not common sense, in 12 more games this year his numbers didn't really go down so why would you assume they would if he played another 18? Thats an assumption and is not common knowledge. Common sense does not dictate anything in regards to this. It's possible that his sv% goes down with more games, but it's in no way an expecation. Hell it could even go up with more games as he could get into more of a groove.

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07-05-2012, 07:08 PM
  #214
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Originally Posted by Moonlapse Vertigo View Post
I think the fact that Renney went back to Khabibulin so damn fast last year after starting Dubnyk in game one against the Penguins set Dubs back a tad. All of a sudden Bulin was ridiculously hot and all of the promise regarding Dubnyk as the starter went out the window.

I mean, hell, Dubnyk won game one against the Penguins and he was still relegated to spot duty for a month and change.
Yeah, but, with even more increasing pressure on Krueger and the Oilers to win this year, how steady and patient will Krueger be if Dubnyk drops 3 games in a row and let's in a few soft ones? I know the Oilers say they intend to give Dubnyk more rope, but that's easier said than done.

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07-05-2012, 07:10 PM
  #215
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Holy overpayment. Glad it's only for 2 years.

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07-05-2012, 07:11 PM
  #216
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I like this deal. He will prove he is a good starting goalie this year with a better d corp in front of him and a more mature bunch of forwards as well. He put up NHL numbers playing behind an AHL team last year.

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07-05-2012, 07:12 PM
  #217
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Originally Posted by stratedge View Post
Yeah, but, with even more increasing pressure on Krueger and the Oilers to win this year, how steady and patient will Krueger be if Dubnyk drops 3 games in a row and let's in a few soft ones? I know the Oilers say they intend to give Dubnyk more rope, but that's easier said than done.
This is a good point and based on last season Dubnyks struggles surfaced when there was pressure to perform. His game improved when the team had no hope of challenging for anything other than the lottery.

It will be very interesting to see if he has the mental toughness to drastically reduce the bad goals and rise to the occasion of playing in pressure situations when his team needs him.

As it stands right now this contract is a major gamble because there really is no backup plan.

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07-05-2012, 07:12 PM
  #218
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Originally Posted by stratedge View Post
Yeah, but, with even more increasing pressure on Krueger and the Oilers to win this year, how steady and patient will Krueger be if Dubnyk drops 3 games in a row and let's in a few soft ones? I know the Oilers say they intend to give Dubnyk more rope, but that's easier said than done.
Precisely.

Theres a huge target on Dubnyks back and its not going away. This is instantly making him an easy scapegoat.

Plus that theres no way that Dubnyk has the mindset to deal with the booing he will get.

What a disaster of a deal. This is exactly the way to ruin a player that already has questionable confidence.

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07-05-2012, 07:13 PM
  #219
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It's not that the Oilers can't afford it, it's that this plays into the exact kind of issue that fans have with Tambellini. They aren't sure if he's got a grip on things. When he says 'we expect to make the playoffs', does he mean it, and if so then he's a little delusional. When he says something like 'we're happy with the length and cost of Khabibulin's contract', does he mean that, and if so he's delusional. Having a GM like that causes malaise.

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07-05-2012, 07:13 PM
  #220
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Quote:
Originally Posted by stratedge View Post
Yeah, but, with even more increasing pressure on Krueger and the Oilers to win this year, how steady and patient will Krueger be if Dubnyk drops 3 games in a row and let's in a few soft ones? I know the Oilers say they intend to give Dubnyk more rope, but that's easier said than done.
I guess, but with with the Oilers' track record over the past three years they can't possibly lose more games in 12/13 than 09/10, 10/11 and 11/12.

Might as well run with him. If he sucks then the Oilers can explore some options with Bulin off the books next summer.

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07-05-2012, 07:14 PM
  #221
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Decent deal for both sides. I'd say he's about as capable as a guy like Niemi, and Niemi earns more than he Dubnyk and even signed his contract when the ceiling was lower.

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07-05-2012, 07:14 PM
  #222
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Dubnyk is a good goalie. Go ahead and call him inconsistent. It really doesn't matter that much, because the numbers indicate that he is very good, especially given his team. He is overpaid slightly relative to experience but I think you all need to calm down and remember that it's a short term deal and the cap is $70million.

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07-05-2012, 07:16 PM
  #223
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I like this deal. He will prove he is a good starting goalie this year with a better d corp in front of him and a more mature bunch of forwards as well. He put up NHL numbers playing behind an AHL team last year.
He better prove that he is a good starting goalie in October. A big contract = higher expectations and a shorter leash.

Tambo ... you have spent 7.25M on goaltending without netting a true #1.

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07-05-2012, 07:19 PM
  #224
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Seriously are people only checking save percentage and GAA in establishing their opinion and comparables?

Its common knowledge that Dubnyk for the most part gets assigned the easier games. These are his numbers without being a number 1 goalie. To compare him to #1 goalies elsewhere is ludicrous.

Next, this is a team that nobody has been in competition with. Teams play us lightly, take the 2 pts, and don't really care how many goals they put up. On most nights you don't need to do much to beat the Oilers.

Some of the comparables made in this thread are a big laugh.

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07-05-2012, 07:19 PM
  #225
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Decent deal for both sides. I'd say he's about as capable as a guy like Niemi, and Niemi earns more than he Dubnyk and even signed his contract when the ceiling was lower.
umm Neimi signed the contract after leading his team to a friggin Stanley cup.. not backing up his team into a lotto finsih.

I dont think the money will be an issue ... its just that Dubnyk has put a lot of pressure on himself by getting this deal. He IMO is not ready for this role.

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