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Quincey Files for Arbitration

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Old
07-06-2012, 12:12 AM
  #51
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sarcastro View Post
Pretty clear that nobody knows anything about NHL arbitration...



By filing for arbitration, Q is forgoing the right to sign an offer sheet. He knows that nobody is going to offer sheet him for the compensation that would be required to top his arbitration award, whatever that may end up being. Therefore there can be no picks, no matching, no signing, etc.

Here are the possible outcomes, now that Q has filed for arb:

1. They agree to a contract before the hearing.
2. They go through the hearing and the Wings agree to the arb number. Q plays out the contract and becomes UFA afterward.
3. They go through the hearing and the Wings decide the arb number is too high and cut him loose.

There is absolutely zero chance that scenario 3 happens. If it were possible for there to be less than zero chance, that would be how much chance there would be of scenario 3 happening. They paid a 1st rounder for him, and they're going to give him the opportunity to justify that expenditure.

Scenario 1 and 2 are about equally likely IMO, and there isn't likely to be a lot of difference between the numbers in either case. I don't expect the Wings to sign him long-term, so they'd be talking about a 1 year deal anyway. Maybe 2 years, but I doubt it.

Filing for arbitration has practically no impact on the handling of Q this summer. He's going to get about $3.5 million to play next season for the Wings and then he's going to UFA next July. Both sides will hope he has a big year.

Everybody needs to chill the hell out on this. It's not any kind of nasty or negative thing for Q to be doing. Instead of sitting around all summer waiting for offer sheets that will never come and waiting for Ken Holland to finish trying to sign other free agents, it's going to be settled by early August. Chillax.
Read my first post in this thread. I'm fully aware of the implications.

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07-06-2012, 12:26 AM
  #52
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Just curious here, obviously Quincy has already been given a qualifying offer, or he'd be a UFA already, so by filing for arbitration does he give up his right to take the qualifying offer?

What would happen if arbitration came down with a lower number, would he be forced to suck it up and play for less than he could have had if he had just taken the first offer?

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07-06-2012, 12:41 AM
  #53
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Drunkspleen View Post
Just curious here, obviously Quincy has already been given a qualifying offer, or he'd be a UFA already, so by filing for arbitration does he give up his right to take the qualifying offer?

What would happen if arbitration came down with a lower number, would he be forced to suck it up and play for less than he could have had if he had just taken the first offer?

He and the Wings have up until the hearing date to actually agree to a contract. There's nothing stopping them from negotiating. If they cannot agree on terms, then the arbitrator will offer up a 1 yr figure. The Wings don't have the option to pick for 1 or 2 yrs as they would under normal player filed arbitration because Quincey will be an UFA next year (or in 1 more year).

At the point, the Wings can accept the figure for 1 yr term, or walk away. If they cut him loose, he's an UFA and is free to negotiate with any other team for any term or amount.

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07-06-2012, 01:38 AM
  #54
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Drunkspleen View Post
Just curious here, obviously Quincy has already been given a qualifying offer, or he'd be a UFA already, so by filing for arbitration does he give up his right to take the qualifying offer?

What would happen if arbitration came down with a lower number, would he be forced to suck it up and play for less than he could have had if he had just taken the first offer?
That's what I was wondering. If it does go to arbitration, is there anything that says the arbiter has to big a number at or above the QO?

That said, I'm 99% sure the Wings are going to get him signed before the hearing.

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07-06-2012, 01:42 AM
  #55
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sarcastro View Post
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunk_cost_dilemma



The pick is gone. Nothing will ever bring it back. The Wings can only hope that his play this season will in some way justify the cost.

Throwing him away for nothing would be sinking the cost up front, denying them the possibility of success. In other words, dumping him now is failure and there exists the possibility that they'll have success by hanging onto him.
Yeah, I know the concept of a sunk cost. I'm a Project Manager. My point was more to the fact Holland had no real plan for this guy. He gave up a 1st rounder to do what exactly? Clearly, it wasn't to sign him to a long term deal--that's not going to happen. What was his plan? Did he even have one?

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07-06-2012, 01:43 AM
  #56
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Originally Posted by Hckytwn View Post
Yeah, I know the concept of a sunk cost. I'm a Project Manager. My point was more to the fact Holland had no real plan for this guy. He gave up a 1st rounder to do what exactly? Clearly, it wasn't to sign him to a long term deal--that's not going to happen. What was his plan? Did he even have one?
Obviously not. He's an idiot.


Last edited by jaster: 07-06-2012 at 01:52 AM.
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07-06-2012, 01:48 AM
  #57
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jaster View Post
That's what I was wondering. If it does go to arbitration, is there anything that says the arbiter has to big a number at or above the QO?

That said, I'm 99% sure the Wings are going to get him signed before the hearing.
I think the only restriction is that he can't be awarded less than 85% his current pay.

So, why are you 99% sure the Wings will sign him? I am pretty sure they won't. I think Quincey wants a long-term deal (4+ years) at more than 4M. I doubt the Wings will do that.

I think he'll take the Arbitrator's money (~$3M), play this year and then go UFA next season and get his money from some team that will pay.

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Originally Posted by jaster View Post
Obviously not. He's an idiot.
I don't think Holland's an idiot, but his strategy is beyond understanding at the moment. We have $16.8M in cap space, with only one roster spot left and in desperate need of defensive help... and now one of our defensemen, that he just used a 1st rounder to get, has filed for arbitration? It's hard to see what Holland is trying to accomplish here, sitting on that much cap money, yet not spending it. Suter wasn't worth giving over $7M to and perhaps Quincey isn't worth keeping either?


Last edited by Hckytwn: 07-06-2012 at 01:58 AM.
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07-06-2012, 01:54 AM
  #58
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Originally Posted by Hckytwn View Post
I think the only restriction is that he can't be awarded less than 85% his current pay.

So, why are you 99% sure the Wings will sign him? I am pretty sure they won't. I think Quincey wants a long-term deal (4+ years) at more than 4M. I doubt the Wings will do that.

I think he'll take the Arbitrator's money (~$3M), play this year and then go UFA next season and get his money from some team that will pay.
I don't get the impression that Quincey wants out for more money. I think he wants to stay in Detroit, given how excited he was to return. And he's going to have ample opportunity in Detroit when it comes to IT and situations.

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07-06-2012, 02:02 AM
  #59
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Originally Posted by jaster View Post
I don't get the impression that Quincey wants out for more money. I think he wants to stay in Detroit, given how excited he was to return. And he's going to have ample opportunity in Detroit when it comes to IT and situations.
Honestly, I hope you're right. I like Quincey. However, my money is on him turning down any offer Holland makes and him going to arbitration, getting a 1-year deal and he's gone. We'll see though.

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07-06-2012, 02:09 AM
  #60
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I think it hurts the Wings to let this go to arbitration. Q's numbers, for example, are higher than Ericsson's on the season as a whole. The arbitrator will look at the entire NHL and what guys with similar games played, stats, etc. got paid this most recent season of signings. On paper, he should get more than Ericsson. It's kind of hard for the Wings to argue that he should take the same as E or less, for example.

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07-06-2012, 02:57 AM
  #61
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hckytwn View Post
Honestly, I hope you're right. I like Quincey. However, my money is on him turning down any offer Holland makes and him going to arbitration, getting a 1-year deal and he's gone. We'll see though.
We shall see indeed. I don't like Quincey, and if we had signed Suter, I'd be all for dumping him. But, with the state of the roster, may as well give him a chance now. Try and recoup the value of that 1st rounder.


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Originally Posted by Fugu View Post
I think it hurts the Wings to let this go to arbitration. Q's numbers, for example, are higher than Ericsson's on the season as a whole. The arbitrator will look at the entire NHL and what guys with similar games played, stats, etc. got paid this most recent season of signings. On paper, he should get more than Ericsson. It's kind of hard for the Wings to argue that he should take the same as E or less, for example.
I don't think it's hard at all, if you go beyond the stats, and when you compare them as Red Wings, which is more relevant than Quincey's time with Colorado included. Quincey shot the puck more frequently than E, but he didn't produce any more offense. And he was clearly worse defensively. Should be easy to show he's worth less.

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07-06-2012, 08:06 AM
  #62
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Is it confirmed that they are going to arbitration because they can't come to terms on a deal or are they pulling a Weber and Parise move like last year, so that other teams can't offersheet him?

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07-06-2012, 08:27 AM
  #63
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While I do regret Holland trading for Quincey, it wasn't all that bad. A decent forthcoming FA often fetches a 2nd round pick at the deadline; since Quincey was an RFA, Detroit had to pay more. The trade was expensive and has not helped the team yet, but it was not horrible.

Quincey should not be awarded any significant raise, so I'll expect Holland to accept the arbitration award. But doesn't that mean that Quincey must not be traded next year?

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07-06-2012, 09:02 AM
  #64
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Originally Posted by BSHH View Post
While I do regret Holland trading for Quincey, it wasn't all that bad. A decent forthcoming FA often fetches a 2nd round pick at the deadline; since Quincey was an RFA, Detroit had to pay more. The trade was expensive and has not helped the team yet, but it was not horrible.

Quincey should not be awarded any significant raise, so I'll expect Holland to accept the arbitration award. But doesn't that mean that Quincey must not be traded next year?

Gruß,
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I dont. I think it was a great move. Who else was available at the trade deadline that helped this year and last?

Imagine our D now without Quincey. We would be even more screwed. Holland signed Quincey as a depth signing 4/5 with him in mind as a contingency if this exact scenario happens. People are blinded by the fact that there are better top 4 dman.

Surprise we have an adequate top 4 dman relatively affordable ready to step in. Quincey is the kind of signing that gave Holland the flexibility to go all in on Suter and refuse to overpay for Carle/Garrison/Wideman.

Our D is not stellar but its adequate. We need a step from Ericsson and Smith (I think we will get both).

Kronwall/Ericsson/White/Quincey/Smith are all top 4 guys imo. What exactly are we missing?

I see Ericsson as our number 2 guy. He cannot carry a pair but hes quite stable to anchor Kronwall or Smith. If not White has shown some stability. I prefer Ericsson cause of his size.

Kronwall Smith (played well together last year)
Ericsson White
Quincey Kindl/ufa

Alternatively

Kronwall Ericsson
Quincey Kindl/ufa (hopefully a stay at home)
Smith White

I am a bit afraid to line up Quincey and White together.

Our D is not horrible just not a high point any longer.

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07-06-2012, 09:15 AM
  #65
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Originally Posted by jaster View Post
We shall see indeed. I don't like Quincey, and if we had signed Suter, I'd be all for dumping him. But, with the state of the roster, may as well give him a chance now. Try and recoup the value of that 1st rounder.


I don't think it's hard at all, if you go beyond the stats, and when you compare them as Red Wings, which is more relevant than Quincey's time with Colorado included. Quincey shot the puck more frequently than E, but he didn't produce any more offense. And he was clearly worse defensively. Should be easy to show he's worth less.

How does an arbitrator go beyond the stats?

It will be anything but easy to show he's worth less (and in fact, he's not worse than Ericsson whose sole saving grace is his PK work).

The Wings and even some in the free market may not want to pay him more but that's not how arbitration works.

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07-06-2012, 09:17 AM
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Originally Posted by solo16 View Post

I see Ericsson as our number 2 guy. He cannot carry a pair but hes quite stable to anchor Kronwall or Smith. If not White has shown some stability. I prefer Ericsson cause of his size.

Kronwall Smith (played well together last year)
Ericsson White
Quincey Kindl/ufa

Alternatively

Kronwall Ericsson
Quincey Kindl/ufa (hopefully a stay at home)
Smith White

I am a bit afraid to line up Quincey and White together.

Our D is not horrible just not a high point any longer.
God help us all. You're afraid to line up Q with White? Wasn't E with anyone other than Lids (and maybe Q) rather disastrous?

I'm going to have nightmares if Ericsson is our #2.

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07-06-2012, 09:18 AM
  #67
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Yeah your right. Ken Holland is a bumbling moron who just tripped and landed himself 4 Stanley Cups. Maybe Garth Snow is available. Quincey will sign a fair deal and then exceed the worth of that deal over the course of the season. Some time prior to the end of the year Holland will extend that deal at below market value. I predict Quincey will be pretty good this year. However I also predict our playoff streak will be broken.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hckytwn View Post
Yeah, I know the concept of a sunk cost. I'm a Project Manager. My point was more to the fact Holland had no real plan for this guy. He gave up a 1st rounder to do what exactly? Clearly, it wasn't to sign him to a long term deal--that's not going to happen. What was his plan? Did he even have one?

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07-06-2012, 09:18 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fugu View Post
How does an arbitrator go beyond the stats?

It will be anything but easy to show he's worth less (and in fact, he's not worse than Ericsson whose sole saving grace is his PK work).

The Wings and even some in the free market may not want to pay him more but that's not how arbitration works.
Not sure how much you expect him to get as an RFA. His best season of 38 points was 5 years ago and his numbers have declined heavily since then. Ericsson was a UFA when he got his deal. I think Quincey will come in around 3.3-3.5m.

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07-06-2012, 09:21 AM
  #69
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Not sure how much you expect him to get as an RFA. His best season of 38 points was 5 years ago and his numbers have declined heavily since then. Ericsson was a UFA when he got his deal. I think Quincey will come in around 3.3-3.5m.
I'm thinking mid to upper 3's, at the most.

Weber was an RFA last year too, and he got UFA-type money, albeit for 1 yr. The arbitrator cited what defensemen 'comparable' to Weber's achievements were getting, basically looking at Keith and his Norris nomination.

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07-06-2012, 09:22 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hckytwn View Post
Yeah, I know the concept of a sunk cost. I'm a Project Manager. My point was more to the fact Holland had no real plan for this guy. He gave up a 1st rounder to do what exactly? Clearly, it wasn't to sign him to a long term deal--that's not going to happen. What was his plan? Did he even have one?
I was under the impression they acquired him because they knew Stuart was 99% gone and Lidstrom was a 50/50 shot to retire. Decent fallback plan if you ask me, the guy has logged plenty of minutes the last few seasons and is young.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Fugu View Post
How does an arbitrator go beyond the stats?

It will be anything but easy to show he's worth less (and in fact, he's not worse than Ericsson whose sole saving grace is his PK work).

The Wings and even some in the free market may not want to pay him more but that's not how arbitration works.
http://proicehockey.about.com/od/nhl...rbitration.htm
Quote:
The evidence that can be used in arbitration cases:
The player's "overall performance" including statistics in all previous seasons.
Injuries, illnesses and the number of games played.
The player's length of service with the team and in the NHL.
The player's "overall contribution" to the team's success or failure.
The player's "special qualities of leadership or public appeal."
The performance and salary of any player alleged to be "comparable" to the player in the dispute.

Evidence that is not admissible:
The salary and performance of a "comparable" player who signed a contract as an unrestricted free agent.
Testimonials, video and media reports.
The financial state of the team.
The salary cap and the state of the team's payroll.
I don't see many things going in his favors here.

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07-06-2012, 09:23 AM
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Originally Posted by Fugu View Post
I'm thinking mid to upper 3's, at the most.

Weber was an RFA last year too, and he got UFA-type money, albeit for 1 yr. The arbitrator cited what defensemen 'comparable' to Weber's achievements were getting, basically looking at Keith and his Norris nomination.
And who would we compare Quincey to? He's not as good defensively as Ericsson but he's not as good offensively as Kronwall. Split the difference and we're still in the mid 3's.

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07-06-2012, 09:27 AM
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And who would we compare Quincey to? He's not as good defensively as Ericsson but he's not as good offensively as Kronwall. Split the difference and we're still in the mid 3's.

I don't get why this is so hard for you and jaster. We're not supposed to compare him to his teammates but all defensemen in the NHL, especially any who have signed contracts recently, and at least within the past year.

And when did E become good defensively? Are you guys serious?

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07-06-2012, 09:29 AM
  #73
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I don't get why this is so hard for you and jaster. We're not supposed to compare him to his teammates but all defensemen in the NHL, especially any who have signed contracts recently, and at least within the past year.

And when did E become good defensively? Are you guys serious?
He can't be compared with UFA's. Read my post.

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07-06-2012, 09:31 AM
  #74
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He can't be compared with UFA's. Read my post.

Why did the arbitrator who handled Weber's case cite Keith?

Maybe you should read his "post".


Edit: There have been no extensions of RFA defensemen?

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07-06-2012, 09:31 AM
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I don't get why this is so hard for you and jaster. We're not supposed to compare him to his teammates but all defensemen in the NHL, especially any who have signed contracts recently, and at least within the past year.
No kidding. Make a comparison then since I have no idea who to compare him to

Quote:
And when did E become good defensively? Are you guys serious?
As serious as you are when you call Ericsson a worthless pylon. Ericsson is very good defensively.

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