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Old
07-06-2012, 04:30 PM
  #1
Zman5778
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Advanced Stats Regarding Miller

http://wgr550.com/What-Advanced-Stat...7--Ry/13653741

Quote:
The question: Why hasn't Miller been the Vezina-caliber goalie the last two years that he was in 2009-10? Is just still an elite goaltender? Is he overpaid? Will he be better next year?

The majority opinion: Miller can still play like an elite goaltender at times, but he is too inconsistent and will never be one of the league's best again. His cap hit isn't worth his average play.

What the stats say: blah

So the short answer is yes, Miller should improve from last season.

Conclusions:

Ryan Miller has been one of the best goalies since the lockout. His coach relies on him to make more saves than most coaches across the NHL do. Given the same situation, most average goalies would perform below average under the same circumstances. His contract, like all contracts, is only worth it if he plays at the top of his game. And the stats suggest he should bounce back from last season which was still a better season than an average for an NHL goalie.

And away we go......

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07-06-2012, 04:32 PM
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looks like the WGR guys and the TBN guys found out about behindthenet.ca and the other sites.

that's great, guys.

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07-06-2012, 04:37 PM
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That was definitely worth the read.

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07-06-2012, 04:38 PM
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Originally Posted by Duddy View Post
looks like the WGR guys and the TBN guys found out about behindthenet.ca and the other sites.

that's great, guys.


Perfect response. They're a little behind the times and now we all suffer.

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07-06-2012, 04:40 PM
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Originally Posted by Afino View Post


Perfect response. They're a little behind the times and now we all suffer.
Even so, it's far better than most of the drivel they give us...even if it's just one guy taking the time to look beyond the surface. At least some modicum of thought, reasoning, and logic is present.

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07-06-2012, 04:43 PM
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It will not sway the people who hate him for his contract, lol. But at least they've got someone who does more than spout from the gut there.

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07-06-2012, 04:46 PM
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Waiting for the article in two years questioning whether or not elite goalies are necessary.

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07-06-2012, 04:48 PM
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Not a bad read. It'd be nice if they talked more about quality starts and W/L in them. In skimming over last year's games (didn't look too thoroughly), it looks like the team loses much more often than not when he puts up "average" numbers and doesn't bail him out as often as some teams when he has poor starts.

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07-06-2012, 04:49 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fatal System Ehrhoff View Post
Waiting for the article in two years questioning whether or not elite goalies are necessary.
Not in Detroit.
So obviously we should trade Miller for a downgrade to save money, because Myers is the next Lidstrom and Grigorenko is the second coming of Datsyuk.

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07-06-2012, 04:51 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fatal System Ehrhoff View Post
Waiting for the article in two years questioning whether or not elite goalies are necessary.
If you read the end of the article, the author does address this question briefly.

His conclusion?

Depends on the system/coach. Guys like Hitchcock play such defense-first systems that they don't need to have the elite-level goalies to consistently win. However, in a system similar to Ruff's -- having someone worse than Miller might be quite bad, since the system seems to require Miller bailing out the Sabres often.

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07-06-2012, 04:59 PM
  #11
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Originally Posted by Zman5778 View Post
His conclusion?

Depends on the system/coach. Guys like Hitchcock play such defense-first systems that they don't need to have the elite-level goalies to consistently win. However, in a system similar to Ruff's -- having someone worse than Miller might be quite bad, since the system seems to require Miller bailing out the Sabres often.
Which I agree with. You see so many defensive lapses watching the Sabres, because they're not built or coached to be a shut down team. When they really want to do it, they can -- but even then it typically requires 30+ saves from Miller. On the other hand, you have goalies in systems like St. Louis who can pitch a >20 save shutout.

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07-06-2012, 05:05 PM
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Originally Posted by Zman5778 View Post
Quote:
What we find is that Miller has been well, well above average throughout his career. In fact, his average goals above average per season since becoming a starter is 13.06. That puts him in the “elite” category since the lockout. Only Henrik Lundqvist, Tim Thomas, Tomas Vokoun, Carey Price and Roberto Luongo are in the same ballpark as Miller in terms of goals above an average netminder since the lockout.

What these goaltenders have in common is a big enough sample to determine that they have had an array of different teammates, some have had different coaches, systems etc., and yet year after year they are above average. Look no farther than Mike Smith or Brian Elliott as goaltenders who have only had success under one type of system and with one set of teammates. Lundqvist, Thomas, Vokoun, Price, Luongo and Miller have proven they are not simply a product of outside factors
Sure douses all those theories about getting some unknown, one-hit wonder in to do the job....

Quote:
Lindy Ruff's system plays a role in Miller's save percentage, too. The statistics suggest that Ruff believes that Miller will bail his defenseman out when they are overly-aggressive and allow 2-on-1 breakouts.
Not to mention of Ruff overworking his starters to exhaustion......

Quote:
The two questions we have no answered yet are: is he overpaid? And will he bounce back next year?

The overpaid question is a complex one. If Miller played for St. Louis, he'd be massively overpaid. Ken Hitchcock plays a hard puck possession game that allows an incredibly low number of shots/scoring chances to the opposition. Essentially any NHL goalie could have an above average year under Hitchcock. However, with Lindy Ruff's system, the Sabres need a top tier goalie. The “goaltending doesn't matter” catch-all only really applies to teams that ask very little of their goalies but also do not play aggressively on the offensive end.

In short – the Sabres' money is better spent on Miller than it would be if a defensive-minded team spent the same. Is he worth a cap hit of $6.25M to save three goals? No. Last season the Sabres did not get their bang-for-buck with Miller. That doesn't mean they never have or won't next year.
Bullseye!

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07-06-2012, 05:10 PM
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Quote:
What we find is that Miller has been well, well above average throughout his career. In fact, his average goals above average per season since becoming a starter is 13.06. That puts him in the “elite” category since the lockout. Only Henrik Lundqvist, Tim Thomas, Tomas Vokoun, Carey Price and Roberto Luongo are in the same ballpark as Miller in terms of goals above an average netminder since the lockout.
So... I should trade Miller, and sign Thomas Vokoun... and save 4+ million dollars?

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07-06-2012, 05:10 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zman5778 View Post
Depends on the system/coach. Guys like Hitchcock play such defense-first systems that they don't need to have the elite-level goalies to consistently win. However, in a system similar to Ruff's -- having someone worse than Miller might be quite bad, since the system seems to require Miller bailing out the Sabres often.
The trouble is that the Sabres no longer have the offensive ability to bail Miller out, despite Ruff's system. Back in 2005-07, they could outscore the opposition but they've seen their offense dwindle and their defense become more erratic in the last 3 years for various reasons. With the present defensive corps they have and the league's overall emphasis on defense, I expect Miller will be much better this season.

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07-06-2012, 05:14 PM
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Jame
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wait... Lindy Ruff doesn't play a defense first, all hands on deck system?

This article seems to insinuate that the Sabres play an offensive system because their d-men pinch a lot... ok All these other successful goalies are successful because of their defensive/passive systems... but the Sabres play offensive first and our super aggressive... yea ok

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07-06-2012, 05:15 PM
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The “goaltending doesn't matter” catch-all only really applies to teams that ask very little of their goalies but also do not play aggressively on the offensive end.
probably the dumbest statement, among many dumb statements

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07-06-2012, 05:18 PM
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It would be a much better article if the author comprehended the Sabres defensive system.

Too bad it's been two pieces and he still doesn't understand what the collapse means.

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07-06-2012, 05:23 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jame View Post
wait... Lindy Ruff doesn't play a defense first, all hands on deck system?

This article seems to insinuate that the Sabres play an offensive system because their d-men pinch a lot... ok All these other successful goalies are successful because of their defensive/passive systems... but the Sabres play offensive first and our super aggressive... yea ok
There is a sense that you give up a lot more high quality transition chances because the D-get involved and don't play it safe as much. That I think we can agree on.

When it comes to 5-man defense in the zone...I think it is more dependent on who those 5 guys are. I think the NHL does keep track of shot distances (or at least they are included in the real-time stuff), so it would be interesting to break it down--s% by distance of shot compared league wide to see whether the shots are coming from the outside or up close. It is reasonable to suggest that for the most part a shot from closer up is more dangerous than one from far away. Then you could also make better judgments about defensive systems--do they allow only shots from the perimeter? etc.

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07-06-2012, 05:42 PM
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Don't need advanced stats to realize Miller wasn't at his best last season. There were obvious reasons why and it's no coincidence that when he got right, the team seemed to get right.

We can debate all day whether another goalie around the league would be more effective, but at the moment he is all the Sabres have and their success as a team will go as he goes.

For multiple reasons I hope he isn't such an important factor this upcoming season, the main reason being that would mean we ice a hell of a lineup. I just don't see it with the current roster, as excited as I am about the changes they've made and the future this team has.

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07-06-2012, 06:33 PM
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Man do I love me some stats.

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07-06-2012, 08:18 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by struckbyaparkedcar View Post
It would be a much better article if the author comprehended the Sabres defensive system.

Too bad it's been two pieces and he still doesn't understand what the collapse means.
Collapse defense can result in lots of shots against, but the active dmen result in odd man rushes against... which is where you need/want a good goaltender.

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07-06-2012, 09:04 PM
  #22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jamers View Post
Collapse defense can result in lots of shots against, but the active dmen result in odd man rushes against... which is where you need/want a good goaltender.
Right, no denying that.

My issue, however, is that the author relies on shot totals to assert that the Sabres don't play a defensively oriented system, and this is the second piece that he's done this.

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07-06-2012, 09:56 PM
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Originally Posted by K McDude View Post
Don't need advanced stats to realize Miller wasn't at his best last season. There were obvious reasons why and it's no coincidence that when he got right, the team seemed to get right.

We can debate all day whether another goalie around the league would be more effective, but at the moment he is all the Sabres have and their success as a team will go as he goes.

For multiple reasons I hope he isn't such an important factor this upcoming season, the main reason being that would mean we ice a hell of a lineup. I just don't see it with the current roster, as excited as I am about the changes they've made and the future this team has.
Can you say missed playoffs/first round exit again? This is the issue. we have a team spending close to the cap, that still needs their goalie to stand on his head to get wins, and can't bail him out enough when he struggles...

Also, in regards to the sabres collapse system...they need to get a LOT better at clearing dudes out of the crease. they aren't bad at keeping guys to the outside, the problem is when one guy gets a shot through and someone gets there without much trouble to find a rebound

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07-06-2012, 10:24 PM
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Originally Posted by kirby11 View Post
Also, in regards to the sabres collapse system...they need to get a LOT better at clearing dudes out of the crease.
Which is why I hate it as a core pillar to "the system," we don't have the horses to play it well enough to win. No blueline of neanderthals, no Selke winning center, no teamwide forecheck, and Miller isn't consistent enough at fighting through traffic and making the first save, not to mention he's relied on for more games than Thomas.

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07-06-2012, 10:52 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by struckbyaparkedcar View Post
Which is why I hate it as a core pillar to "the system," we don't have the horses to play it well enough to win. No blueline of neanderthals, no Selke winning center, no teamwide forecheck, and Miller isn't consistent enough at fighting through traffic and making the first save, not to mention he's relied on for more games than Thomas.
i think it's safe to say this is one of those "how the **** has no one in the sabres organization realized how wrong lindy can be sometimes as a coach" moments

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