HFBoards

Go Back   HFBoards > NHL Eastern Conference > Atlantic Division > Toronto Maple Leafs
Notices

Next Game: vs New York |Mon Jul 16 @ 7:00pm ET/4:00pm PT | H. Alvarez vs P. Hughes

Closed Thread
 
Thread Tools
Old
07-06-2012, 09:42 PM
  #76
Longshot
Registered User
 
Longshot's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Ontario, Canada
Country: Canada
Posts: 4,499
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Swervin81 View Post
Davis has the speed to beat any DP though.

EDIT: Except that one.
I'd rather have somebody that could go yard and tie the game with one swing.

Longshot is offline  
Old
07-06-2012, 09:45 PM
  #77
p.l.f.
mvp
 
p.l.f.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: Toronto, CANADA
Posts: 34,625
vCash: 500
1 friggin run
glad i wasnt able to see it lol

p.l.f. is offline  
Old
07-06-2012, 09:50 PM
  #78
CherryMan
Registered User
 
CherryMan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2012
Location: in my house
Posts: 51
vCash: 500
Send a message via ICQ to CherryMan Send a message via MSN to CherryMan
Jays should just trade Bautista, they won't be good until his years are over.

CherryMan is offline  
Old
07-06-2012, 09:50 PM
  #79
Auzzie19
Registered User
 
Auzzie19's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: Gormley
Country: Canada
Posts: 1,520
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Swervin81 View Post
Davis has the speed to beat any DP though.

EDIT: Except that one.
Snider is just as fast as Lawrie and Rasmus, plus his bat and fielding are miles better than Rajai's. I'd take Snider over Davis. Davis is a bench player. Only reason he is hitting close to .300 is because pitchers are challenging him, but not lately hence the strikeouts and weakly hit balls.

Auzzie19 is offline  
Old
07-06-2012, 09:55 PM
  #80
Nasty Nazem
The North Remembers
 
Nasty Nazem's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: In my house... duh!
Country: Canada
Posts: 25,868
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by CherryMan View Post
Jays should just trade Bautista, they won't be good until his years are over.
... because you think so?

Nasty Nazem is offline  
Old
07-06-2012, 09:58 PM
  #81
canucksfan
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: British Columbia
Posts: 23,470
vCash: 990
Quote:
Originally Posted by CherryMan View Post
Jays should just trade Bautista, they won't be good until his years are over.
Umm, no. Unless some crazy deal came along there is no point in trading him.

canucksfan is online now  
Old
07-06-2012, 09:58 PM
  #82
CherryMan
Registered User
 
CherryMan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2012
Location: in my house
Posts: 51
vCash: 500
Send a message via ICQ to CherryMan Send a message via MSN to CherryMan
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nasty Nazem View Post
... because you think so?
The world knows. Too much hype.

CherryMan is offline  
Old
07-06-2012, 09:58 PM
  #83
Woodman19
#TeamBernier
 
Woodman19's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 12,018
vCash: 500
When we get pitching we cant hit, when we hit we cant pitch.

Woodman19 is offline  
Old
07-06-2012, 10:03 PM
  #84
Auzzie19
Registered User
 
Auzzie19's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: Gormley
Country: Canada
Posts: 1,520
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nasty Nazem View Post
... because you think so?
It's pretty obvious he's on the decline, but the AA will need to get this team some real starting depth if they intend to win a world series in the next 5 years.

Auzzie19 is offline  
Old
07-06-2012, 10:11 PM
  #85
dredeye
BJ Elitist/Hipster
 
dredeye's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Country: Canada
Posts: 19,434
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by CherryMan View Post
Jays should just trade Bautista, they won't be good until his years are over.
thanks for the insight now if you could please go away

dredeye is online now  
Old
07-06-2012, 10:27 PM
  #86
Dr Swag
Banned User
 
Dr Swag's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2012
Location: T.
Country: Canada
Posts: 789
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by CherryMan View Post
Jays should just trade Bautista, they won't be good until his years are over.
If we can trade him for a package of 3 blue-chip prospects like the Doc trade I'd consider it, but only in his contract year.

Dr Swag is offline  
Old
07-07-2012, 01:54 AM
  #87
Nasty Nazem
The North Remembers
 
Nasty Nazem's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: In my house... duh!
Country: Canada
Posts: 25,868
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by CherryMan View Post
The world knows. Too much hype.
What?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Auzzie19 View Post
It's pretty obvious he's on the decline, but the AA will need to get this team some real starting depth if they intend to win a world series in the next 5 years.
Yeah that nearly .900 OPS and leading the league in homeruns. Pretty clearly on a decline.

His walk rate is nearly the same as 2010 and he is on pace for nearly as many homeruns. His doubles are down but that's about it and he is doing it with a .208 BABIP which is also the lowest BABIP of his career so far. That is pretty incredible.

"AA will need to get this team some real starting depth if they intend to win a world series in the next 5 years"

Good thing AA drafted a crap load of high ceiling pitchers, huh?

Do people even realize building a team takes time and you can't just magically get all the pieces at once?

Nasty Nazem is offline  
Old
07-07-2012, 03:09 AM
  #88
The Nemesis
Global Moderator
Semper Tyrannus
 
The Nemesis's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Langley, BC
Country: Canada
Posts: 46,717
vCash: 500
Let's look at the "declining" Jose Bautista

YearHRRBIBAOBPOPSBB:KWAR
2012 (projected)52123.244.358.897.9115.8*
201143103.302.4471.0551.187.7
201054124.260.378.995.8626.6

*I extrapolated WAR based on games played this season and current WAR. I have no idea if this is valid, and while the # seems ballpark acceptable enough based on variance in hitting stats, I would not take this as some sort of gospel projected finishing mark like the other #s.

So what do we have? A season that is strikingly similar to his breakout 2010 campaign , and superior in some places to his MVP calibre 2011. His averages are down because of a horrendously low BABIP which is likely unsustainable over the course of the rest of the year, so expect those #s to pick up a bit beyond the projected amounts.

Toss in that he seems to be playing at about the same level defensively as in years past (FWIW, the last 2 seasons he had a dWAR of -0.7, while at the halfway point of this year he's only at -0.1, so if anything he's been better this year. Perhaps a year of Colby covering more ground in CF has helped him stay within himself?) and I'd be hard pressed to say that it's "obvious" he's on the decline. Massive 2011 BA spike aside (keep in mind that Jose is a career .244 hitter, .265 for his Blue Jays tenure), he's actually been pretty consistent over the last 3 years.


As an aside, the thing I found curious are his plate discipline #s from Fangraphs. You would think based on some of the ABs we've seen this year that he's chasing the ball more, swinging more, swinging and missing more, etc. But his discipline numbers are for the most part better than they have been in past years.


 '12'11'10
O-Swing%: 24.5 25.8 24.1
Z-Swing%: 57.0 60.2 62.8
Swing%: 38.5 39.7 41.7
O-Contact%: 70.4 70.1 68.7
Z-Contact%: 87.4 85.7 86.3
Contact%: 81.2 79.6 80.7
Zone%: 43.2 40.3 45.3
SwStr%: 7.1 7.6 7.7
O-Swing and Z-Swing are the percentage pitches swung at that are in and out of the strike zone respectively (this year he swings at 24% of balls thrown out of the zone and 63% of balls in the zone). Swing% is total percentage of all balls that are swung at.

O and Z contact are the percentage of pitches swung at in and out of the zone that he makes contact with (hit or foul), contact is % of all swings that connect with teh ball in some fashion


Zone% is total percentage of pitches thrown at Bautista that are in the strike zone. SwStr is percentage of swing and miss strikes.


apologies for the backwards stat order. I originally did this without the table and thought that reverse order was better that way. and I wasn't about to retype it after putting in the table formatting.

so what does all this mean? It means that this year Jose is swinging and missing less (down a half a percent or so from the last couple years) swinging at fewer pitches in and out of the zone than last year (and a similar # to 2 years ago) making contact with a greater percentage of pitches he swings at both in and out of the zone, and seeing a # of pitches in the zone that's nicely between his last 2 years. In other words, at worst he's about the same as previous years' average and at best he's actually doing a better job of holding off on pitches and making contact when he does swing. Which is strange considering it feels like he's overswinging and chasing at times.

__________________

"Do you know what "nemesis" means? A righteous infliction of retribution manifested by an appropriate agent."

Sorry, I am not taking signature requests at this time.
The Nemesis is offline  
Old
07-07-2012, 03:16 AM
  #89
Eyedea
96 from the left
 
Eyedea's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: Toronto, Ontario
Country: Greece
Posts: 10,807
vCash: 350
While the BABIP is at an unsustainably low average, do you really expect it to increase that much? I feel the shift that teams employ against Bautista has had a significant impact on his BABIP and it'd likely remain below average for the rest of his MVP-like tenure. It's bad because he's not exactly getting as much hits as you'd expect, but it's nice to know that the Jays practically have the most feared hitter in the game. Yes I know teams use shifts on other players, but nonetheless...

Eyedea is offline  
Old
07-07-2012, 03:34 AM
  #90
The Nemesis
Global Moderator
Semper Tyrannus
 
The Nemesis's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Langley, BC
Country: Canada
Posts: 46,717
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Eyedea View Post
While the BABIP is at an unsustainably low average, do you really expect it to increase that much? I feel the shift that teams employ against Bautista has had a significant impact on his BABIP and it'd likely remain below average for the rest of his MVP-like tenure. It's bad because he's not exactly getting as much hits as you'd expect, but it's nice to know that the Jays practically have the most feared hitter in the game. Yes I know teams use shifts on other players, but nonetheless...
Well, the first thing is that it's not just a little low. His BABIP this year is .208 according to baseball-reference. He was .309 last year and .233 in 2010. Comparatively, BABIP over the last 10 years has been somewhere in the mid .290s to low .300s. So a BABIP swing like Bautista's is certainly a little odd, as is the monumental drop. Of course, he had a monumental surge last year, so nothing's impossible, and he very well might stay with the ridiculously low # he has now.

On the subject of shifts, if we assume the fact that shifts have become far more widespread in their implementation and more frequently used in recent years, the league BABIP #s aren't showing it. Even just looking at Jays games this year, both Toronto and opponents seem to be employing shifts against more players and more frequently overall, but the 2012 league-wide BABIP is .296, putting it smack dab in the middle of the last decade's league average. And if you look at someone like David Ortiz who does have a shift heavily employed against him for several years, you see that his BABIP fluctuates up and down, but never seems to hit a particular trend one way or another. You would expect that successful implementation of a shift against him would have caused a noticeable point at which his BABIP drops and stays lower than his prior career average. But this never happens. In fact his 10 and 11 totals are two of the higher BIP averages he's had in his career.


Basically the tl;dr version of this is that it's not a certainty that Jose's BABIP will go up somewhat, but it seems the safer bet. And I don't think that increased shift usage by defences is going to slow him down all that much, as it seems that the shift's BABIP impact both on an individual and league-wide level is negligible at best.

The Nemesis is offline  
Old
07-07-2012, 03:41 AM
  #91
Eyedea
96 from the left
 
Eyedea's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: Toronto, Ontario
Country: Greece
Posts: 10,807
vCash: 350
Well I never really bothered looking up those stats, so thanks for bringing them up. If the shift hasn't exactly affected BABIP's, including Jose's, what exactly has? I was always under the impression that BABIP averages are affected by defence (shift) and luck, so by those numbers would we be basing it all on luck? I'm not exactly knowledgeable in this general area of sabre metrics so I have no idea about this.

Eyedea is offline  
Old
07-07-2012, 08:00 AM
  #92
donkeyy0
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 1,433
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Eyedea View Post
Well I never really bothered looking up those stats, so thanks for bringing them up. If the shift hasn't exactly affected BABIP's, including Jose's, what exactly has? I was always under the impression that BABIP averages are affected by defence (shift) and luck, so by those numbers would we be basing it all on luck? I'm not exactly knowledgeable in this general area of sabre metrics so I have no idea about this.
It makes sense (to me) that Bautista's BABIP is going to be low (not THAT low though), he's swinging for the fences every time he's up to bat. He's not hitting singles, he's not hitting doubles, he's not hitting to the gaps, he's not slap hitting (Bautista should never slap hit). Therefore, if the ball isn't leaving the park...it's probably ending up in an outfielder's glove. His LD% is low, his GB% is low, his FB% is really high. And he's only hitting an HR in like 1/5 FBs. While the long ball is great, he's basically a one trick pony (the best trick).

He hit doubles 2 years ago, but that's pretty much stopped. It seems to me that IF the ball is in the field of play...the defender is PROBABLY getting to it. Most likely the left fielder.

donkeyy0 is offline  
Old
07-07-2012, 08:06 AM
  #93
Bjindaho
Registered User
 
Bjindaho's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Country: Canada
Posts: 3,210
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by donkeyy0 View Post
It makes sense (to me) that Bautista's BABIP is going to be low (not THAT low though), he's swinging for the fences every time he's up to bat. He's not hitting singles, he's not hitting doubles, he's not hitting to the gaps, he's not slap hitting (Bautista should never slap hit). Therefore, if the ball isn't leaving the park...it's probably ending up in an outfielder's glove. His LD% is low, his GB% is low, his FB% is really high. And he's only hitting an HR in like 1/5 FBs. While the long ball is great, he's basically a one trick pony (the best trick).

He hit doubles 2 years ago, but that's pretty much stopped. It seems to me that IF the ball is in the field of play...the defender is PROBABLY getting to it. Most likely the left fielder.
BABIP discounts HR as well, because they technically aren't in play.

Bjindaho is offline  
Old
07-07-2012, 08:19 AM
  #94
donkeyy0
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 1,433
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bjindaho View Post
BABIP discounts HR as well, because they technically aren't in play.
Well would you look at that. Learn something new every day. Thought it was just K's. Everything still applies I think.

Then it makes exact sense to me why his BABIP is as low as it is. Ball is still either leaving the field or dropping into a glove. And it's not luck or defence imo, it's the kind of cuts that Bats is taking.

donkeyy0 is offline  
Old
07-07-2012, 11:01 AM
  #95
Auzzie19
Registered User
 
Auzzie19's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: Gormley
Country: Canada
Posts: 1,520
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Nemesis View Post
Let's look at the "declining" Jose Bautista

YearHRRBIBAOBPOPSBB:KWAR
2012 (projected)52123.244.358.897.9115.8*
201143103.302.4471.0551.187.7
201054124.260.378.995.8626.6

*I extrapolated WAR based on games played this season and current WAR. I have no idea if this is valid, and while the # seems ballpark acceptable enough based on variance in hitting stats, I would not take this as some sort of gospel projected finishing mark like the other #s.

So what do we have? A season that is strikingly similar to his breakout 2010 campaign , and superior in some places to his MVP calibre 2011. His averages are down because of a horrendously low BABIP which is likely unsustainable over the course of the rest of the year, so expect those #s to pick up a bit beyond the projected amounts.

Toss in that he seems to be playing at about the same level defensively as in years past (FWIW, the last 2 seasons he had a dWAR of -0.7, while at the halfway point of this year he's only at -0.1, so if anything he's been better this year. Perhaps a year of Colby covering more ground in CF has helped him stay within himself?) and I'd be hard pressed to say that it's "obvious" he's on the decline. Massive 2011 BA spike aside (keep in mind that Jose is a career .244 hitter, .265 for his Blue Jays tenure), he's actually been pretty consistent over the last 3 years.


As an aside, the thing I found curious are his plate discipline #s from Fangraphs. You would think based on some of the ABs we've seen this year that he's chasing the ball more, swinging more, swinging and missing more, etc. But his discipline numbers are for the most part better than they have been in past years.


 '12'11'10
O-Swing%: 24.5 25.8 24.1
Z-Swing%: 57.0 60.2 62.8
Swing%: 38.5 39.7 41.7
O-Contact%: 70.4 70.1 68.7
Z-Contact%: 87.4 85.7 86.3
Contact%: 81.2 79.6 80.7
Zone%: 43.2 40.3 45.3
SwStr%: 7.1 7.6 7.7
O-Swing and Z-Swing are the percentage pitches swung at that are in and out of the strike zone respectively (this year he swings at 24% of balls thrown out of the zone and 63% of balls in the zone). Swing% is total percentage of all balls that are swung at.

O and Z contact are the percentage of pitches swung at in and out of the zone that he makes contact with (hit or foul), contact is % of all swings that connect with teh ball in some fashion


Zone% is total percentage of pitches thrown at Bautista that are in the strike zone. SwStr is percentage of swing and miss strikes.


apologies for the backwards stat order. I originally did this without the table and thought that reverse order was better that way. and I wasn't about to retype it after putting in the table formatting.

so what does all this mean? It means that this year Jose is swinging and missing less (down a half a percent or so from the last couple years) swinging at fewer pitches in and out of the zone than last year (and a similar # to 2 years ago) making contact with a greater percentage of pitches he swings at both in and out of the zone, and seeing a # of pitches in the zone that's nicely between his last 2 years. In other words, at worst he's about the same as previous years' average and at best he's actually doing a better job of holding off on pitches and making contact when he does swing. Which is strange considering it feels like he's overswinging and chasing at times.
So do you some how expect him to get better or worse in the future?

Auzzie19 is offline  
Old
07-07-2012, 11:47 AM
  #96
The Nemesis
Global Moderator
Semper Tyrannus
 
The Nemesis's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Langley, BC
Country: Canada
Posts: 46,717
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Auzzie19 View Post
So do you some how expect him to get better or worse in the future?
He's going to get worse, obviously. Point is he's not getting worse yet.

The Nemesis is offline  
Old
07-07-2012, 12:15 PM
  #97
The Nemesis
Global Moderator
Semper Tyrannus
 
The Nemesis's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Langley, BC
Country: Canada
Posts: 46,717
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Eyedea View Post
Well I never really bothered looking up those stats, so thanks for bringing them up. If the shift hasn't exactly affected BABIP's, including Jose's, what exactly has? I was always under the impression that BABIP averages are affected by defence (shift) and luck, so by those numbers would we be basing it all on luck? I'm not exactly knowledgeable in this general area of sabre metrics so I have no idea about this.
BABIP fluctuations are usually mostly luck/random chance. There is some of it that's attributable to what kind of hitter the guy is, but usually you don't see a guy who can consistently stay well above or below the league average for multiple years.

Quote:
Originally Posted by donkeyy0 View Post
Well would you look at that. Learn something new every day. Thought it was just K's. Everything still applies I think.

Then it makes exact sense to me why his BABIP is as low as it is. Ball is still either leaving the field or dropping into a glove. And it's not luck or defence imo, it's the kind of cuts that Bats is taking.
Makes sense, but then you have Adam Dunn who is the same kind of feast-or-famine hitter that Bautista is this year (Dunn is actually a kind of an exaggerated Bautista. He hits a similar # of doubles, but far more strikeouts, less walks and generally less hits overall. Bautista's hit totals from the last couple years would represent the 2nd and 3rd highest of Dunn's career. The one significant difference in their batted ball percentages is that Dunn hits a far greater % of his balls for line drives compared to Bautista, which makes up for the offsetting slightly lower GB and FB percentages.) Anyway, back on track, the point here is that Dunn's BABIP numbers are not nearly as low as Jose's is this year.

And more to Jose himself, his #s this year in terms of ground ball and fly ball percentages aren't strikingly different than his previous years either. In fact, on the whole, Jose's hitting profile is very similar to the last two years except for the slightly lower # of doubles (he's projecting to 19 for this year, vs 24 last year and 35 in 2010) and his ridiculously low BABIP. Basically he's the same hitter he's been the last couple of years, it's just that for whatever reason, more of his hits are finding gloves.

Fangraphs actually has a discussion on this:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...trange-season/

they come to pretty much the same conclusion. His season is very strange to this point (this was written when his BABIP was below .200) and that chances are by the end of the year either the BABIP wins out and his other stats drop in line with what you'd expect out of a guy that can't put a ball in play (even one that mashes like Jose) or more balls drop in for hits and this half-season of BABIP weirdness comes up to more normalized levels. And they bet on the latter.

The Nemesis is offline  
Old
07-07-2012, 03:27 PM
  #98
Nasty Nazem
The North Remembers
 
Nasty Nazem's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: In my house... duh!
Country: Canada
Posts: 25,868
vCash: 500
Awesome, Romero pitching like crap already.

Nasty Nazem is offline  
Old
07-07-2012, 03:27 PM
  #99
Woodman19
#TeamBernier
 
Woodman19's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 12,018
vCash: 500
Here we go.

Woodman19 is offline  
Old
07-07-2012, 03:27 PM
  #100
TrainTracks
Rookie User
 
TrainTracks's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2012
Location: Queen & Roncy
Posts: 106
vCash: 500
romero pitching well again i see

TrainTracks is offline  
Closed Thread

Forum Jump


Bookmarks

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 07:27 PM.

monitoring_string = "e4251c93e2ba248d29da988d93bf5144"
Contact Us - HFBoards - Archive - Privacy Statement - Terms of Use - Advertise - Top - AdChoices

vBulletin Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
HFBoards.com is a property of CraveOnline Media, LLC, an Evolve Media, LLC company. 2014 All Rights Reserved.