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HFNHL Talk HFNHL is a full-simulation fantasy league that uses the FHL simulator to determine the outcome of games over a full 82-game season.

PRELIMINARY HFNHL Ratings - 2012-2013 season

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07-09-2012, 09:11 PM
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Dr.Sens(e)
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PRELIMINARY HFNHL Ratings - 2012-2013 season

We have a preliminary set of ratings for you to review and they have been posted in our Yahoo group.

A few notes:

Re The quantitative ratings – SC, PA, DU, EN, FO, PS

We accessed Stats Inc. to generate a model where we could calculate the rate of production (or lack thereof) for each player rating over their last 164 games. This was done with 70% allocated to the last 82 games, and 30% to the previous 82 games. For most players, this meant we dipped in to three seasons ago (for some more than others) given very few players played 82 / 82 over the last two seasons. The benefit of this approach is we avoided situations where players with less games played in a season were penalized based on a 82 game season or given an artificial boost, and it also prevented too much weight on a particular season with fewer games played.

For players with fewer games played in the last three years (<40), certain reductions were applied given the smaller sample size (getting more extreme, the less games that were played). This prevents players with 3 goals in 8 career games from being considered as 30 goal scorers. As well, for certain stats like FO and PS, discounts were applied for those weren’t regularly relied upon as a top faceoff or shootout player for the team (providing a boost to certain players based on their coaches faith in their abilities).

We have also built into part of the ranking a “per minute” weighting, so if two players both scored 25 goals in a season, but one averaged 22 mins per game, and the other only 16 mins/game, the player with the better goals : 60 minutes was given a boost. But still, production per game remains the more heavily weighted factor.

For d-men, unlike last year, we have created a scale where the elite defensemen actually have quite a high SC rating, and this is proportional to production. We feel this is worth testing given the rate of d-men scoring was down quite a bit in our league last year. Of course, at the top of the scale there only a few defencemen (Karlsson, Weber etc.), before a pretty decent drop-off given the disparity in NHL scoring amongst d-men, but it still marks a difference from our last ratings.

The qualitative ratings – CK, FG, DI, SK, ST, PH, DF, EX, LD, PO

These are from sim.net and while some of the individual ratings might draw some discussion, the benefit of using third party ratings is it prevented any subjectivity or judgment by our group / league members.

Of note re ST, it is not what you would expect given how the sim uses this rating. The sim looks at this as the ability to avoid and handle “being hit”, which results in a number of players you wouldn’t expect being elite in this category. One way of looking at this, as a player “strong on their skates” to a degree, although that’s my choice of words, not the sim’s. But check out the STHS manual if you want a better idea, but the main point here is the rating is not meant to reflect pure strength / size.

Regarding SK, this isn’t speed, but rather a player’s ability to skate with the puck. It would seem lateral movement and general skating while handling the puck are of more importance here than the ability to do a full lap of a rink at high speed.

For goalies, the work has just really begun because the sim.net ratings have some issues. We are likely to follow a similar path to what Ville has done in past re goalie ratings, as he has been providing feedback along the way on this. For now, we don’t expect to have any goalie ratings to share with the league in advance of free agency, but given goalie are mostly a statistical exercise for ratings more so than skaters, , I think most GM’s will know where goalies will basically end up in the ranking / rating hierarchy.

Of note, we still may adjust some of the ratings because these are untested and we may yet find another better source for ratings, in particular for the qualitative ratings. So if you are going to make free agency offers based on one particular individual rating, that may prove to be a mistake. That said, this should be helpful to give all of us a general idea of what type of player you would be getting free agency (and what type of team we have now).

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07-09-2012, 09:27 PM
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Stamkos and Doughty next big thing.

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07-09-2012, 10:58 PM
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Linky:

http://sports.groups.yahoo.com/group...013%20Ratings/

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07-10-2012, 06:23 AM
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Is there any way to see OV ratings? I mean so I can be sure that I will be well above min ov rating? Is this list just random or is it from the best player to the worst player according to the rating? For exampel Crosby who is #1 is the best and Ivans who is #891 is the worst of the ranked players?

Finally great job guys! Really looking forward for this upcoming season.

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07-10-2012, 06:50 AM
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We haven't calculated OV - can't until they're entered into the sim, which won't be until we have completed the missing ratings. So if these are in any order(?), it's not OV.

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07-10-2012, 07:13 AM
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I think the initial "sort" was by SK or something. I suppose you could create an 'average' in a new cell and get a feel for where your players stand, but as noted, this won't be the same as 'OV' which has it's own unique calculation.

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