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2013 NHL Draft (draft day chat link in Post 887)

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05-22-2013, 08:16 PM
  #426
hbk
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I'm with you. I think Domi has even surpassed Lazar in my eyes, at this point. Horvat has not.

At this moment (again, I reserve the right to change my mind), I've got Domi ahead of Lazar with a little daylight between the two and then Lazar with a little bit of separation between he and the pair of Horvat and Wennberg who are basically all tied up. I haven't seen enough of Shinkaruk to rank him, really, but I expect I'd have him about tied up with Domi at this point. So, I guess I'd draft whichever of Domi or Shinkaruk drops to twelve (I doubt both do) or Lazar (pretty much no chance all three are gone before twelve).

I guess this makes my top ten forwards something like...

MacKinnon
Drouin
Lindholm
Barkov
Monahan
Shinkaruk/Domi
Lazar
Horvat/Wennberg

...we don't have a prayer at landing one of the top five without moving up, but we may have the chance to take our pick of at least three or four of those bottom five. Makes me a pretty happy camper, really.
I'm a huge Jenner fan. I do view Horvat as a better version to be honest. If there is a deal consummated witht the Flyers for Yandle it could affect things as well. Horvat/Laughton are comparable (again I like Horvat better). Of course a Jeff Skinner deal might help bring some clarity for our future direction as well.

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05-23-2013, 12:19 AM
  #427
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The only other names I'd throw into the mix with that top ten are Jones, Ristolainen, Pulock, and Hartman. Wish I had a couple of looks at Erne. Even so, I imagine Horvat couldn't be any lower than 14th on my list, if I actually had enough knowledge to compile an actual list. He'd hardly be all that disappointing at 12th.

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05-23-2013, 12:22 AM
  #428
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How did you guys learn to scout these guys? Just watching a lot of hockey over the years, playing when you were younger... or?

I'm constantly in awe of the knowledgeable posters around here, I catch some things like how Vermette seemed to fumble the puck a lot this year, I can see how Hanzal plays the opposing center or OEL uses his stick to play the puck.

Just watching a lot?

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05-23-2013, 12:24 AM
  #429
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In my case, I'm just completely full of ****. I'm way off most of the time. Hbk is definitely better.

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05-23-2013, 07:35 AM
  #430
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How did you guys learn to scout these guys? Just watching a lot of hockey over the years, playing when you were younger... or?

I'm constantly in awe of the knowledgeable posters around here, I catch some things like how Vermette seemed to fumble the puck a lot this year, I can see how Hanzal plays the opposing center or OEL uses his stick to play the puck.

Just watching a lot?
I basically look for players who play the opposite of how I play(ed).

Lots of watching hockey. I travel and watch our prospects play as well. At one point in time i was our editor for this site. I've laid some eggs on predictions as well over the years. Nailed OEL but my Sjostrom prediction was way off. I also didn't think Wheeler would be anything more than a 3rd liner after seeing him routinely struggle at NCAA level. Hopefully I'm getting better.

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05-23-2013, 07:38 AM
  #431
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In my case, I'm just completely full of ****. I'm way off most of the time. Hbk is definitely better.
Actually I really like your analysis. The commentary on Horvat and Domi has been great.

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05-23-2013, 03:32 PM
  #432
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I saw both Horvat and Domi a few times in person earlier this year. I'm MUCH higher on Domi. He's a pitbull with ridiculous skill. I'm not as concerned with Tippett coaching him as you are hbk. Domi's defensive game isn't terrible and he's not afraid to fight for pucks. He's got a little bit of everything in his game. Power forwards, sniper, playmaker and grinder.

When I saw Horvat he was a great defensive player that showed a few flashes of offensive brilliance. But that's all they were, was flashes. A few nice toe drags here and there but overall his offensive awareness wasn't anywhere close to Domi's.

I for one am tired of players that are great defensively but can't carry the offense. We have enough of those guys. Let's take the guy that can hold his own defensively and has the potential to be an offensive stud.

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05-24-2013, 01:40 PM
  #433
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Horvat is going to be a very good prospect along with Wennberg. These are two of the few players im excited about come draft day. Can this thread get a sticky ?

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05-26-2013, 01:50 PM
  #434
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After a couple days off(no 4th round pick) I went back up to the digital podium to make our 5th round pick.

I had my heart set on either J.S. Dea from Rouyn-Noranda, Cole Cassels from Oshawa, or lesser so Sergei Tolchinsky from Soo. Of course those were all gone so I panicked a bit and admittedly reached on USHL center Jake Guentzel.

Jake had only been taken in two of the four prior mock drafts and at least a round later than I took him but I liked his scouting report more than the other forwards I had seen around him in the rankings.

My other option was Curtis Valk, but I figured I could wait till the next round to swing for the fences with an undersized overager.

The scouting report that sold me on him.

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05-26-2013, 05:21 PM
  #435
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Why is Mantha so lowly regarded? He could be the steal of the draft.

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05-26-2013, 06:25 PM
  #436
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Why is Mantha so lowly regarded? He could be the steal of the draft.
Couple of popular knocks when it comes to Mantha. One is that if he were born one day earlier, he'd have been in last year's draft. Along with that extra bit of maturity, he's a very big, athletic, powerful kid with all of the raw physical tools. This allows him to light up the kids at the Q level. How will it translate when the playing field starts to level out? He's a big kid and a good skater. He also doesn't really assert himself physically all that much and doesn't play with a whole lot of intensity. He can look a whole lot like Taylor Pyatt. I haven't had the chance to really see how he uses his shot or gets into position in the offensive zone. I've only seen him at the super series. His size and mobility was eye catching but he was pretty much ineffective. That said, Domi and Rychel were pretty much in over there heads at that tourney, too.

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05-27-2013, 09:27 AM
  #437
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Couple of popular knocks when it comes to Mantha. One is that if he were born one day earlier, he'd have been in last year's draft. Along with that extra bit of maturity, he's a very big, athletic, powerful kid with all of the raw physical tools. This allows him to light up the kids at the Q level. How will it translate when the playing field starts to level out? He's a big kid and a good skater. He also doesn't really assert himself physically all that much and doesn't play with a whole lot of intensity. He can look a whole lot like Taylor Pyatt. I haven't had the chance to really see how he uses his shot or gets into position in the offensive zone. I've only seen him at the super series. His size and mobility was eye catching but he was pretty much ineffective. That said, Domi and Rychel were pretty much in over there heads at that tourney, too.
It probably doesn't help that he plays out in the middle of the woods in Val d'Or.

This is a pretty good assessment. He is indeed very raw but has really good offensive instincts. Has a Turris-like release, which is a good thing. He scores a lot of Stamkos-type goals by parking himself at the dot and blasting the one timer. Only difference is he is a left shot and Stamkos is right. He's not a dangler like Mackinnon or Drouin but kid knows how to find the net for sure.

I've always found that his skating is a little bow-legged like Maxim Afinogenov, although not as much speed but powerful strides and good acceleration. If I had to project I could see the Flyers taking him at 11 or if not, possibly the Sabres at 16. They like their Q guys and they're a little thin on wingers.

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05-27-2013, 11:28 AM
  #438
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Very bow legged. But I kind of feel like it only serves to give a wider base, and better balance. Looks to actually help the edge work a little, too. Pavel Datsyuk, and Jeff Skinner are other examples of this.

You are right about Val d'Or too. Other than Luc Bourdon, you have to go back to the mid nineties to find first round picks out of there. JP Dumont and Roberto Luongo.


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05-27-2013, 12:32 PM
  #439
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I agree with this assessment of Mantha. The size and skills package is terrific, but the effort level leaves an awful lot to be desired. I can't think of a single player who has ever developed a mean streak after being drafted, but there are a handful of players who showed a bit more intensity as they matured. It's rare, though, which is why I have in the bottom third of the first round. Still, someone like Mantha improving his motor is a tad more likely than someone like Ryan Hartman or Frederik Gauthier improving their offensive skill. I wouldn't touch any of them at 12.

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05-27-2013, 03:08 PM
  #440
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I don't want a guy who is known for lack of effort. That's the biggest red flag there is in my opinion.

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05-27-2013, 05:13 PM
  #441
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I agree with this assessment of Mantha. The size and skills package is terrific, but the effort level leaves an awful lot to be desired. I can't think of a single player who has ever developed a mean streak after being drafted, but there are a handful of players who showed a bit more intensity as they matured. It's rare, though, which is why I have in the bottom third of the first round. Still, someone like Mantha improving his motor is a tad more likely than someone like Ryan Hartman or Frederik Gauthier improving their offensive skill. I wouldn't touch any of them at 12.
Hey Pho, welcome back! Hope you plan on staying awhile, we could use more of your level headed insights around here!

Anyway, I fully admit I don't know crap about these prospects but wasn't low effort level one of the knocks on Hanzal? Obviously he was able to turn that around but perhaps that was Sutter's influence in Red Deer.

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05-27-2013, 06:12 PM
  #442
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Hey Pho, welcome back! Hope you plan on staying awhile, we could use more of your level headed insights around here!

Anyway, I fully admit I don't know crap about these prospects but wasn't low effort level one of the knocks on Hanzal? Obviously he was able to turn that around but perhaps that was Sutter's influence in Red Deer.
It was, and like I said, some guys can grow out of that. But more often than not, unmotivated 17-year-olds are still unmotivated when they're 19, 22, and 28. I don't know if it was Sutter who helped Hanzal turn it on or just the fact that he was playing with his actual peers (he had been drafted out of a men's league) or some combination of those and other factors, but he's a great success story for sure.

Also, just in case you missed my earlier rankings, I think they were a bit more informative: http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/sh...&postcount=389

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05-27-2013, 07:57 PM
  #443
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It was, and like I said, some guys can grow out of that. But more often than not, unmotivated 17-year-olds are still unmotivated when they're 19, 22, and 28. I don't know if it was Sutter who helped Hanzal turn it on or just the fact that he was playing with his actual peers (he had been drafted out of a men's league) or some combination of those and other factors, but he's a great success story for sure.

Also, just in case you missed my earlier rankings, I think they were a bit more informative: http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/sh...&postcount=389
Yeah I completely missed that, thanks for the breakdown. I don't know why but I haven't kept up with prospects at all this year. I'm pretty much blind.

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05-27-2013, 08:16 PM
  #444
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Yeah I completely missed that, thanks for the breakdown. I don't know why but I haven't kept up with prospects at all this year. I'm pretty much blind.
It's been a weird stupid waste of a season at the NHL level, and that trickles down. Easy to lose track. But this is a really, really exciting draft. The top three could all be superstars, the top ten or so could all be franchise guys, and then there are potential first liners into the second round (though obviously with their share of hurdles). I don't think this is up to the level of the 2003 draft, but it might be the deepest one since then. It's definitely one of the most interesting in a while.

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05-27-2013, 09:16 PM
  #445
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Mantha to me seems like the kind of guy that will be a good pick for a team that is a good passer and is a pass first kind of guy. He doesn`t seem the type that will generate alot of offense by himself

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05-27-2013, 09:20 PM
  #446
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I get the feeling that Domi isn't going to play C in the pros. I'm still leaning towards Horvat. I'm alone on an island right now. I accept that.

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05-27-2013, 09:43 PM
  #447
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Well there is a lot of good commentary in all your comments. Thanks for the info. Hopefully Maloney and staff guess it right.

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05-27-2013, 10:20 PM
  #448
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I get the feeling that Domi isn't going to play C in the pros. I'm still leaning towards Horvat. I'm alone on an island right now. I accept that.
I agree. He will not be a center in the NHL. Defintely a winger.

That's okay with me though. I feel zero need to emphasize C versus F at number twelve. There won't be any 1Cs available at 12 anyhow.

I like Horvat quite a bit. Just not so high as twelve. I think he and Lazar are extremely similar players. Really quite comparable. I think Lazar is a significantly better skater. Like way, way better. He also quite a bit more physical. Just a lot meaner. That said, I think Horvat has better vision and is a better passer. In most categories, they are basically the same. I like Lazar more overall due to his feet and his sandpaper.

I officially like Domi better than both. He's significantly more skilled. His skating is retarded good in all facets. Like way good in all conceivable ways. Plus his shot, and shot selection are amazing good. Still not as good as his vision and his actual passing skills. I also just love his urgency on offense. He's like the honey badger on offense. He just don't give a ****. Kid gets that puck on the net, to the open man in the slot, or in front of the crease for a scramble.

Really he just needs to turn it down a little. He forces the play to much. He's got to dial that down a little. That said, what supremely skilled CHL player doesn't have that problem? Every forward in the CHL who was ever a top five pick has bad that problem.

He's also a complete non factor defensively. Total cherry picker. So are most CHL forwards take. Very, very early in the NHL draft.

Mostly they end up okay, after all. I think Domi will too. The only way he's on the board at twelve and isn't my preference is if Shinkaruk is there too. In that case, I'm torn due to lack of exposure to Shinkaruk who I've only seen a couple of times.

Now that the Mem Cup is done, my F list is fairly set in stone:

1. MacKinnon
2. Drouin
3. Lindholm
4. Barkov
5. Monahan
6/7. Domi/Shinkaruk
8. Lazar
9/10. Horvat/Wennberg

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05-28-2013, 11:35 AM
  #449
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Why is Mantha so lowly regarded? He could be the steal of the draft.
Very lazy in his own zone and lacks the pro game foot speed. Both can be coached into him but does that team have the patiemce to wait for a forst rounder to develop.

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05-28-2013, 11:49 AM
  #450
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Rychel is going to be a solid pro ..rt switch with lazar?

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