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Where would suit Girgensons best 2012-13

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Old
07-12-2012, 10:51 PM
  #76
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Originally Posted by jfb392 View Post
Make the right decision and don't listen to what the organization is feeding you, please.
This. I'd prefer girgs work on his game at vermont or for a team like Kelowna for one more year. Everyone's saying he's "dominating" physically, but he's playing against other prospects, not guys who are going to be 21+ years old with substantial AHL/NHL experience. I think he'll have a really good chance of being here with the amerks next year, get some time with the big club too with injuries or maybe him just being that good. But based on what a lot of people have been saying, his upside is even better than expected. I'd rather the sabres give girgs a bit more time with much less pressure, than rush him and stunt his development. Yes, he has a low chance of really failing like novotny/zagrapan, but why take the chance?

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07-12-2012, 10:52 PM
  #77
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Originally Posted by jfb392 View Post
Make the right decision and don't listen to what the organization is feeding you, please.

Is the right decision, what you think is the right decision?

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07-12-2012, 10:57 PM
  #78
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Originally Posted by Zman5778 View Post
You think the organization wouldn't be looking out for what they think is Z's best interests?
Organizations like to get their first round picks into their organization and playing for the big team ASAP, so what they think is best for him may actually not be.

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Originally Posted by Revelate View Post
Is the right decision, what you think is the right decision?
The actual right decision just so happens to be what I think is the right decision, so yes.

Tell me about all of the guys that have succeeded going from junior A to minor pro hockey at 18 and how prospects that are rushed always end up fine.
I'll hang up and listen.

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07-12-2012, 10:58 PM
  #79
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Originally Posted by Zman5778 View Post
You think the organization wouldn't be looking out for what they think is Z's best interests?
Of course they would but some are understandably nervous. It's a big step for him.

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07-12-2012, 11:02 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jfb392 View Post
The actual right decision
Too black and white for me. I don't think there is ONE right decision here.

At this point, it sure seems like CHL/Vermont/Rochester/Buffalo are all viable options, to differing degrees.

I personally think the best option would be the CHL followed by Vermont.


But, if Z and the Sabres organization think otherwise...........I think I'll trust them.

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07-12-2012, 11:07 PM
  #81
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You think Regier and Ruff haven't watched extensive film on him? Think they haven't talked at length with Jim Montgomery? Talked to scouts?

The best and most educated opinion on what he should do will be made by the Sabres, not poster X on HF Boards.

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07-12-2012, 11:07 PM
  #82
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I'm going with whatever ZG thinks is best for him.

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07-12-2012, 11:21 PM
  #83
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Originally Posted by Revelate View Post
I'm going with whatever ZG thinks is best for him.
Agreed. I don't think he'll develop well if he's somewhere he doesn't want to be (like Kelowna). Maybe a different WHL team, but ultimately Zemgus is gonna be the one who has to put in the work, and he needs to want to be wherever he goes.

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07-13-2012, 01:23 AM
  #84
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I think theres no need for Z to rush with going to the NHL he should develop his game next year in NCAA or WHL so hes ready for NHL.

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07-13-2012, 04:58 AM
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I think theres no need for Z to rush with going to the NHL he should develop his game next year in NCAA or WHL so hes ready for NHL.
Hopefully he has strong support at Home, and Dubuque giving good advise. The wrong decision this week and his career in the NHL is short.

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07-13-2012, 05:09 AM
  #86
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Hopefully he has strong support at Home, and Dubuque giving good advise. The wrong decision this week and his career in the NHL is short.
I`m pretty sure hes not going to play in the NHL this year,he needs that one extra year to develop and i think he knows that.

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07-13-2012, 05:29 AM
  #87
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Originally Posted by Ghost Dog View Post
Hopefully he has strong support at Home, and Dubuque giving good advise. The wrong decision this week and his career in the NHL is short.
It's a bit over the top to suggest that his career will be short if chooses any specific option


Last edited by Rob Paxon: 07-13-2012 at 12:14 PM.
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07-13-2012, 05:35 AM
  #88
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I don't understand the philosophy that there is only one correct option. As if playing in college if he's pro ready doesn't have an opportunity cost. If Girgensons rips it up on the Amerks at gets called-up is that not the correct decision?

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07-13-2012, 07:47 AM
  #89
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Hopefully he has strong support at Home, and Dubuque giving good advise. The wrong decision this week and his career in the NHL is short.
What an overreaction.

I honestly don't know what's best for him. If he's ready physically and mentally, as everyone is the know is saying, then turn pro and spend a year in the AHL. It's a development league. That's what it's there for. People preach about Armia playing in the Finnish league against men and how it's helping him. And spare me the comment that it's a way better league than the AHL. I've had that discussion with Terry Martin before.

In the end, Ruff, Montgomery and Regier will give him the advice they think is best and he'll do what he wants to do. Whatever decision he makes, I'm all for it. I just don't like the black and white, if he goes there he's ruined, type comments.

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07-13-2012, 08:28 AM
  #90
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I think it's more complicated than "do you keep playing men or boys?"

Factors:

-Is Ron Rolston the best development-minded coach out of his options? I mean, he really should be - that's what the Sabres brought him in for.

-What skills does he need to develop? It sounds as though what's in his favor at this point is that his body is developed like a man's and he knows how to use it to a man's effect. But are his fundamentals exceptional enough? Is his stickhandling, passing, skating and shooting good enough? How about his intuitive knowledge of the game, the way he reads plays, etc? Some of the fundamentals might get more work in a junior/college setting, while I tend to think the best way to develop your playmaking sense is against the speed and types of systems you'll need to develop it for (in the pro game).

-Playing time management. It's fine to start him off on a lower line, if you bring him up quickly enough. But if he gets stagnant, it could be a development stunter.

-Quality of competition. It's fine to play against worse players if your role on the team is to be The Guy, but you've got to develop right in that role. A cheap move or a weak tactic might work against college players, but get eaten up and spit out at the pro game. If you spend too long developing a bad habit, it can be hard to break. Conversely, if you get in too far over your head at the next level, you can stop developing a weakness and just try to play a game that excludes that aspect of your game - like a bad stick handler just deciding to play dump and chase all the time and therefore never developing the weakness.

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07-13-2012, 08:46 AM
  #91
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Quote:
Originally Posted by haseoke39 View Post
I think it's more complicated than "do you keep playing men or boys?"

Factors:

-Is Ron Rolston the best development-minded coach out of his options? I mean, he really should be - that's what the Sabres brought him in for.

-What skills does he need to develop? It sounds as though what's in his favor at this point is that his body is developed like a man's and he knows how to use it to a man's effect. But are his fundamentals exceptional enough? Is his stickhandling, passing, skating and shooting good enough? How about his intuitive knowledge of the game, the way he reads plays, etc? Some of the fundamentals might get more work in a junior/college setting, while I tend to think the best way to develop your playmaking sense is against the speed and types of systems you'll need to develop it for (in the pro game).

-Playing time management. It's fine to start him off on a lower line, if you bring him up quickly enough. But if he gets stagnant, it could be a development stunter.

-Quality of competition. It's fine to play against worse players if your role on the team is to be The Guy, but you've got to develop right in that role. A cheap move or a weak tactic might work against college players, but get eaten up and spit out at the pro game. If you spend too long developing a bad habit, it can be hard to break. Conversely, if you get in too far over your head at the next level, you can stop developing a weakness and just try to play a game that excludes that aspect of your game - like a bad stick handler just deciding to play dump and chase all the time and therefore never developing the weakness.
There are also any number of off-ice considerations when looking at an 18-year old, no matter how mature his body is. Things like transitioning to living on one's own vs billet or dorm life, lack of age-specific contemporaries/friends, and the possible exposure to poor non-game activities with older players.

Sign the deal, turn "pro" and head to the 'dub remains where I think he'd be best served in the longer term. He'd be a trend setter if he's coming through the minors, particularly coming from the USHL, as an 18-year old. The list of guys who've been successful long-term in the NHL after going that route is so short as to be two guys that I can think of (and both came through the I) in Bonk and Stefan. Take the traditional route, get a little bit more mature, make the transition to the longer season, get groomed by a Sabre staffer if he's in Kelowna.

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07-13-2012, 08:54 AM
  #92
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Originally Posted by Chainshot View Post
There are also any number of off-ice considerations when looking at an 18-year old, no matter how mature his body is. Things like transitioning to living on one's own vs billet or dorm life, lack of age-specific contemporaries/friends, and the possible exposure to poor non-game activities with older players.

Sign the deal, turn "pro" and head to the 'dub remains where I think he'd be best served in the longer term. He'd be a trend setter if he's coming through the minors, particularly coming from the USHL, as an 18-year old. The list of guys who've been successful long-term in the NHL after going that route is so short as to be two guys that I can think of (and both came through the I) in Bonk and Stefan. Take the traditional route, get a little bit more mature, make the transition to the longer season, get groomed by a Sabre staffer if he's in Kelowna.
You need to stop comparing Zemgus to every other player in the USHL. He is a special case. If everyone says he is ready, why do you continue to say he should go to crappy Vermont?? Is it just to prove a point of being right or something??

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07-13-2012, 09:02 AM
  #93
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There are also any number of off-ice considerations when looking at an 18-year old, no matter how mature his body is. Things like transitioning to living on one's own vs billet or dorm life, lack of age-specific contemporaries/friends, and the possible exposure to poor non-game activities with older players.

Sign the deal, turn "pro" and head to the 'dub remains where I think he'd be best served in the longer term. He'd be a trend setter if he's coming through the minors, particularly coming from the USHL, as an 18-year old. The list of guys who've been successful long-term in the NHL after going that route is so short as to be two guys that I can think of (and both came through the I) in Bonk and Stefan. Take the traditional route, get a little bit more mature, make the transition to the longer season, get groomed by a Sabre staffer if he's in Kelowna.

Those are interesting examples considering Stefan was really an abject disappointment (and was a weak #1 in a weird draft anyway) and Bonk, though he played almost 1000 games and had a handful of nice seasons, was never a go-to guy with the Sens.

The Girgensons-to-Rochester argument makes the assumption that there something about him that makes him different from every other Jr A player, ever. Maybe there is but that's incredibly shaky ground to walk on.

I can see the argument that Rolston and Cassidy have the experience with USHL/NCAA track prospects like Girgensons so maybe the Sabres are in a better position than every other organization in history but... now you're assuming you have an AHL staff qualified in a way none ever has been with a USHL prospect that has never existed before.

There is so much risk in putting an 18 year old in the AHL and so little in putting him in the CHL or at Vermont. And, though I think it's shady, they can pull him out midseason if they really want to (Isles did this with Okposo as a soph, I think).

Girgensons is incredibly impressive obviously, but there are so many bold assumptions that need to be made in order to justify this idea. I just don't see how the AHL this year is really in Girgensons' best interest.

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07-13-2012, 09:03 AM
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You need to stop comparing Zemgus to every other player in the USHL. He is a special case. If everyone says he is ready, why do you continue to say he should go to crappy Vermont?? Is it just to prove a point of being right or something??
How do you really know that, though?

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07-13-2012, 09:15 AM
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Rochester. He's big enough to handle the competition there.

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07-13-2012, 09:16 AM
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Originally Posted by BloFan4Life View Post
You need to stop comparing Zemgus to every other player in the USHL. He is a special case. If everyone says he is ready, why do you continue to say he should go to crappy Vermont?? Is it just to prove a point of being right or something??
And are the people harping on the AHL as the best path so obtuse as to not look at the history of players who've gone this route not living up to their viewed potential simply to be right if he turns pro and goes there? Hey, if the kid does it and manages to translate his potential, awesome for him, he'd be a trail blazer for USHL kids and 18-year olds in general. And if he doesn't, it's a waste. The list of guys who've been hurt by being rushed is pretty long and in hockey circles you don't hear of anyone who was hurt because they were allowed to develop "too long". This kid offers them some definite possibilities that they need. That said, getting the most out of him down the line is, to me, more important than anything.

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07-13-2012, 09:20 AM
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Still doesn't make any sense as to why it's a positive around here for Joel Armia to be playing in a pro league at ages 17 and 18, but it's a negative for Girgensons to be playing in a league centered around developing prospects for the NHL at ages 18 and 19.

And I read the previous responses to that claim. That Girgensons will be "run" by AHL journeymen is a stretch.

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07-13-2012, 09:24 AM
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And are the people harping on the AHL as the best path so obtuse as to not look at the history of players who've gone this route not living up to their viewed potential simply to be right if he turns pro and goes there? Hey, if the kid does it and manages to translate his potential, awesome for him, he'd be a trail blazer for USHL kids and 18-year olds in general. And if he doesn't, it's a waste. The list of guys who've been hurt by being rushed is pretty long and in hockey circles you don't hear of anyone who was hurt because they were allowed to develop "too long". This kid offers them some definite possibilities that they need. That said, getting the most out of him down the line is, to me, more important than anything.
Again here we go with the USHL junk. If kids were allowed to play in the AHL at 18 coming from the CHL, how many of those kids would?? I bet you there would be a huge chunk every year playing there. Zemgus benefited from a flawed system, take advantage of it. We got a kid that could easily play in the CHL last year but didn't. Who are these first rounders that had so much potential but were "rushed" into a developmental league to be hurt. You act like the AHL is the NHL. The AHL is a developmental league. You never hear about the kids that were groomed too much because they never made the league to hear their name. I can think of a couple guys just on the Sabres that I thought we groomed to much, one going on right now. If you aren't challenging yourself, you become stagnant.

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07-13-2012, 09:33 AM
  #99
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If ZG is confident enough to play in the A, so be it. Right now I want this kid wherever he thinks he will be happiest.

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07-13-2012, 09:44 AM
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Originally Posted by sabrefan27 View Post
Still doesn't make any sense as to why it's a positive around here for Joel Armia to be playing in a pro league at ages 17 and 18, but it's a negative for Girgensons to be playing in a league centered around developing prospects for the NHL at ages 18 and 19.

And I read the previous responses to that claim. That Girgensons will be "run" by AHL journeymen is a stretch.
Armia vs Girgensons is, I think, a fair point. I would argue that Armia has been in the Assat organization his entire career so they were able to develop him in house since he was 15. Armia also played a full season in the SM-Liiga in his draft year at 17 (he's only 6 months older than Girgensons) and, of course, played there last season as well and, I believe, has been a top line player.

At the same age, Girgensons was in Dubuque. Armia faced a much higher level of competition, and succeeded, at the same age.



For me, placement of Girgensons isn't necessarily about "playing against men" or not, it's about his role on whatever team he is on this year. Honest question, where do you think he fits in the Amerks lineup?

In Juniors or at Vermont, he'll probably be one of the go-to forwards playing a lot of minutes in a lot of situations. To me, that's the best way to develop him. I doubt he gets that in Rochester so I don't think it's the best place for him. IMO.

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