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Washington Capitals 2012 Prospect Poll - #2

View Poll Results: Washington Capitals 2012 Prospect #2
Filip Forsberg 11 18.97%
Braden Holtby 32 55.17%
Dmitry Orlov 13 22.41%
Stanislav Galiev 2 3.45%
Tom Wilson 0 0%
Voters: 58. You may not vote on this poll

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07-11-2012, 07:04 PM
  #26
Carlzner
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Originally Posted by Mystlyfe View Post
Andrew Raycroft, Steve Mason, David Aebischer, etc.

It's not just Jim Carey. Don't trust stats from young goaltenders, they're almost meaningless in predicting how the goalie's career will go. Holtby is definitely still a "prospect" and people are way overhyping the numbers he's had in limited NHL action.
So those goalies are the rule, not exceptions, right?

****s sake.

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07-11-2012, 07:31 PM
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So those goalies are the rule, not exceptions, right?

****s sake.
They're not really the rule or the exception. That's kind of the point: young goalies are very unpredictable.

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07-11-2012, 08:19 PM
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I view Galiev as more NHL ready than Forsberg.

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07-11-2012, 09:19 PM
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They're not really the rule or the exception. That's kind of the point: young goalies are very unpredictable.
Bingo.

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07-11-2012, 09:22 PM
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Originally Posted by sonsofcain View Post
They're not really the rule or the exception. That's kind of the point: young goalies are very unpredictable.
Not really. Much more good young goalies turn out to be good than bad.

I mean... he used David Aebischer as an example.

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07-11-2012, 09:44 PM
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Not really. Much more good young goalies turn out to be good than bad.

I mean... he used David Aebischer as an example.
David Aebischer posted a .931 sv% and 1.88GAA in his 21 games in 2002. There's a reason why Colorado was comfortable turning to him as their starter after Patrick Roy retired.

Plenty of goalies have hot starts to their NHL career and fail to match those numbers. Even counting the playoffs, Braden Holtby has only played 35 games in the NHL. It takes a few thousand ES shots against to be confident of a goalies actual abilities, and Holtby has faced under 1000 NHL shots total to this point. Through Vesa Toskala's first 40 games he had an almost identical save percentage to Holtby (.9295sv%). We all know how he turned out.

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07-11-2012, 09:49 PM
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Just for that we need to get Haar on the ballot asap.


http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...X5bW_blog.html

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07-11-2012, 11:06 PM
  #33
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Originally Posted by Mystlyfe View Post
David Aebischer posted a .931 sv% and 1.88GAA in his 21 games in 2002. There's a reason why Colorado was comfortable turning to him as their starter after Patrick Roy retired.

Plenty of goalies have hot starts to their NHL career and fail to match those numbers. Even counting the playoffs, Braden Holtby has only played 35 games in the NHL. It takes a few thousand ES shots against to be confident of a goalies actual abilities, and Holtby has faced under 1000 NHL shots total to this point. Through Vesa Toskala's first 40 games he had an almost identical save percentage to Holtby (.9295sv%). We all know how he turned out.
In 2002. That's the point.

Those are exceptions, not coin flips.

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07-12-2012, 12:05 AM
  #34
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Originally Posted by Braden Carlzner View Post
In 2002. That's the point.

Those are exceptions, not coin flips.
Its seriously absurd. How much can one forum overvalue prospects? I'm excited as hell that things finally went down the way I wanted them to on draft day, but it is complete insanity to think that Forsberg is more likely to be an NHL success than a goaltender who averages over .930 sv%, under 2.00 gaa in the first 35 games of his career.

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07-12-2012, 01:00 AM
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Originally Posted by Braden Carlzner View Post
In 2002. That's the point.

Those are exceptions, not coin flips.
So because I chose an example before you started following hockey means it's not valid? If you want something more recent look at how Reimer tanked once teams figured out to shoot high glove on him. And I can guarantee you didn't see Neuvirth's implosion this season coming.

They are not exceptions, they are part of the norm (young goalies are unpredictable). Brodeur was nothing to write home about when he came into the league, Louongo struggled with the Islanders, Rinne was average at best his first two seasons as a starter, and Ryan Miller looked terrible in his NHL action before the lockout. Yet they are regarded to be among the NHL's elite goaltenders now. Early career stats have little bearing on what a goalie will be when in his prime.

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07-12-2012, 01:04 AM
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So because I chose an example before you started following hockey means it's not valid? If you want something more recent look at how Reimer tanked once teams figured out to shoot high glove on him. And I can guarantee you didn't see Neuvirth's implosion this season coming.

They are not exceptions, they are part of the norm (young goalies are unpredictable). Brodeur was nothing to write home about when he came into the league, Louongo struggled with the Islanders, Rinne was average at best his first two seasons as a starter, and Ryan Miller looked terrible in his NHL action before the lockout. Yet they are regarded to be among the NHL's elite goaltenders now. Early career stats have little bearing on what a goalie will be when in his prime.
What? You used 3 examples of good young goalies that busted. And one of the examples was from 10 years ago. My point is, those cases are exceptions and rarities... not the norm or coin flips for goalies. Hockey Players are not robots. Just because some goalies bust doesn't mean each young goalie has a certain chance of busting... no. Each is an individual case. Aebischer had a great rookie season because he played behind a great team. I wouldn't even start to say the same for Holtby during the playoffs. Not to mention his poise is way beyond average... which is almost never seen in young/rookie goalies. But please... go ahead and pull up a few examples of goalies that busted, and make the case that there's a good chance that Holtby does too, so he shouldn't be our #2 ranked prospect...

And you say I haven't watched hockey for more than 10 years...


As for Neuvirth ... sure I did. Sophomore Slumps are very common. Maybe if you watched hockey before 2002 ... (or was that me?) ... you would know that.


What you don't seem to be understanding, with my original point, is that out of the 3 examples you used, one of them was from 10 years ago. So basically, they aren't common, or you would have named a more recent example.

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07-12-2012, 01:13 AM
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Or, you know, I just named the first three that popped into my head. And have since named plenty of more recent examples.


But go ahead and keep living the dream where all our goaltenders are studs. Two calder cups!

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07-12-2012, 01:16 AM
  #38
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Originally Posted by Mystlyfe View Post
Or, you know, I just named the first three that popped into my head. And have since named plenty of more recent examples.


But go ahead and keep living the dream where all our goaltenders are studs. Two calder cups!

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07-12-2012, 02:31 AM
  #39
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I wish this forum had a heart emoticon.

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07-12-2012, 02:32 AM
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Oh, it does.

Mystlyfe

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07-12-2012, 02:35 AM
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(Partly for referencing the West Wing in the other thread.)

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07-12-2012, 07:37 AM
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Originally Posted by Captain Conservative View Post
a goaltender who averages over .930 sv%, under 2.00 gaa in the first 35 games of his career.

Welp, now I'm convinced.

I remember Peter Sejna, dude scored in his first game against a HOF goaltender. Dude was on pace for 82 HOF goals a season!!!!!

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07-12-2012, 08:52 AM
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The basis for this argument is so stupid too.

Much, MUCH more Forwards and Defenseman bust than goalies...

I can count the number of goalies that played as good as Holtby when they were his age in the NHL and then busted... on one hand, maybe a few on the 2nd hand.

It's ridiculous to label them all with a "percentage chance" to bust because others did... they are all different players who play different styles, practice differently, have different motivations... to group them all together is just being so so naive.

Anyways... the fact that Jim ****ing Carey and David Aebsicher busted doesn't mean Holtby shouldn't be ranked as one of our top prospects. That's idiotic.

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07-12-2012, 09:06 AM
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Originally Posted by Braden Carlzner View Post
The basis for this argument is so stupid too.

Much, MUCH more Forwards and Defenseman bust than goalies...
Is that so? I'll ignore the fact ten times more skaters are taken than goalies...so yes, many more skaters would naturally bust than goalies, based on pure numbers alone...

Then again, debating a player with a poster of that player's namesake is sort of a lost cause.

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07-12-2012, 09:10 AM
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Is that so? I'll ignore the fact ten times more skaters are taken than goalies...so yes, many more skaters would naturally bust than goalies, based on pure numbers alone...

Then again, debating a player with a poster of that player's namesake is sort of a lost cause.
High profile European Filatov busted... Clearly, using your logic on Holtby, Forsberg has a pretty good chance of busting. Because of that he definitely shouldn't be ranked as one of our top prospects.

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07-12-2012, 09:23 AM
  #46
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Originally Posted by Braden Carlzner View Post
High profile European Filatov busted... Clearly, using your logic on Holtby, Forsberg has a pretty good chance of busting. Because of that he definitely shouldn't be ranked as one of our top prospects.
Uhhhh, he does.

I mean, Holtby did do awesome in HH. Just like Mike Smith, Jaroslav Halak, Brian Elliott and Minus-Turdy-Do did in similar systems. How about we give him a looksie in a system that doesn't have 6 men in the defensive zone at all times before we appoint the kid the savior, eh?



This picture is one of the reasons the Caps didn't make the third round.

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07-12-2012, 09:39 AM
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Uhhhh, he does.

I mean, Holtby did do awesome in HH. Just like Mike Smith, Jaroslav Halak, Brian Elliott and Minus-Turdy-Do did in similar systems. How about we give him a looksie in a system that doesn't have 6 men in the defensive zone at all times before we appoint the kid the savior, eh?



This picture is one of the reasons the Caps didn't make the third round.
Who is appointing him the savior right now? This is about him being the 2nd ranked prospect for us.

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07-12-2012, 09:43 AM
  #48
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Who is appointing him the savior right now? This is about him being the 2nd ranked prospect for us.
Well, the d00d who made a 35 game statistical analysis for one.

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07-12-2012, 09:50 AM
  #49
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Well, the d00d who made a 35 game statistical analysis for one.
Overreact much? I posted his statistics.

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07-12-2012, 09:52 AM
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Overreact much? I posted his statistics.
Oh, I actually completly overlooked your post. Was talking about Captain Conservative.

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