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TJ Oshie

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Old
07-12-2012, 10:20 AM
  #1
HockeyGuruPitka
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TJ Oshie

Just wondering his value is to St.Louis.

Hes a physical player that has been streaky in his production. Definitely has potential, but what is his ceiling?

Can he be a permanent top line C?

What do you think hes looking for in arbitration? Was there ever a chance for a team to put in an offer sheet? If possible would St.Louis have matched an offer sheet of 4.6m over 5 years which would land them a 1st and a 3rd? Lets say hypothetically from Toronto?

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07-12-2012, 10:25 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HockeyGuruPitka View Post
Just wondering his value is to St.Louis.

Hes a physical player that has been streaky in his production. Definitely has potential, but what is his ceiling?

Can he be a permanent top line C?

What do you think hes looking for in arbitration? Was there ever a chance for a team to put in an offer sheet? If possible would St.Louis have matched an offer sheet of 4.6m over 5 years which would land them a 1st and a 3rd? Lets say hypothetically from Toronto?
4.6 over 5 years would pretty much be a perfect deal for Oshie. Would be signed instantly. Perron got 3.8 for 4 years. Oshie might not have quite as high as an offensive skillset as Perron, but his 2 way game, physicality and general health have him getting more than Perron. At least that's what most blues fans see.

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07-12-2012, 10:29 AM
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HANDZ 57
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On the top line C question. I think it would be risky to assume he would ever play top line center. Right now he plays the wing and is probably more of a 1st and 2nd line tweener that can play any role he's asked.

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07-12-2012, 10:37 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HockeyGuruPitka View Post
Just wondering his value is to St.Louis.

Hes a physical player that has been streaky in his production. Definitely has potential, but what is his ceiling?

Can he be a permanent top line C?

What do you think hes looking for in arbitration? Was there ever a chance for a team to put in an offer sheet? If possible would St.Louis have matched an offer sheet of 4.6m over 5 years which would land them a 1st and a 3rd? Lets say hypothetically from Toronto?
The Blues would instantly match that. Also, Oshie plays wing, not center. Beat me to it.

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07-12-2012, 10:38 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HockeyGuruPitka View Post
Just wondering his value is to St.Louis.

Hes a physical player that has been streaky in his production. Definitely has potential, but what is his ceiling?

Can he be a permanent top line C?

What do you think hes looking for in arbitration? Was there ever a chance for a team to put in an offer sheet? If possible would St.Louis have matched an offer sheet of 4.6m over 5 years which would land them a 1st and a 3rd? Lets say hypothetically from Toronto?
I'd say his ceiling is around 60-65 pts but with tons of tenacity, heart and Selke caliber defensive ability.

1st line C? No. 1st line RW? Yes.

In negotiations/arbitration, I'd guess that he's looking for Backes money - 5x$4.5M. I would think that the Blues are offering closer to what Perron got - about $4M/yr. My guess us that they come to an agreement before the 7/20 arbitration date.

STL easily would've matched that offer sheet. $4.6M is prob more than they would want to pay Osh but not by so much that they'd give him away for 1st & 3rd rd picks.

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07-12-2012, 11:00 AM
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Dolph Ziggler
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Would have been matched for sure. He's a top line RW that plays Selke caliber defense and probably maxes around 60 points.

I don't think he could be a top center. I think he ends up in the 4.2 range which is about where I'd put him.

He shouldn't make more than David Backes and I doubt he ends up with it.

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07-12-2012, 11:07 AM
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Like the previous poster said hes a RW now, and 4.6M would be matched instantly by the Blues. and to acquired him it would cost to much to the Leafs to even consider moving him... so I'd say no not available

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07-12-2012, 11:09 AM
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Originally Posted by The Inglorious One View Post
Would have been matched for sure. He's a top line RW that plays Selke caliber defense and probably maxes around 60 points.

I don't think he could be a top center. I think he ends up in the 4.2 range which is about where I'd put him.

He shouldn't make more than David Backes and I doubt he ends up with it.
Overrused tag. There are too many greater defensive forwards than Oshie who can also put decent offensive numbers to say he has "Selke caliber defense". Starting with his own teammate.

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07-12-2012, 11:09 AM
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I'd hope we'd match that.

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07-12-2012, 11:20 AM
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Would you match 5 years 25 million from Toronto?

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07-12-2012, 11:42 AM
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Would you match 5 years 25 million from Toronto?
Almost certainly. I'm glad that we won't have to deal with offersheets for him now, however unlikely they may have been.

Hopefully a long term deal is agreed in the next week.

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07-12-2012, 11:43 AM
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Would you match 5 years 25 million from Toronto?
Not certain but probably so.

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07-12-2012, 11:43 AM
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Originally Posted by SIDGENO8771 View Post
Would you match 5 years 25 million from Toronto?
Toronto? Check your username, Pens would offer at least that much for Oshie and probably more. Fits our system as well as anyone.


To Blues fans, what offer sheet do you think that your org wouldn't match for Oshie?

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07-12-2012, 11:49 AM
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The Blues would match 5x5. They wouldn't want to, but there's no way they're letting the most popular player on the team go for draft picks. That's a good way to lose quite a few fringe fans, especially the female variety. If the Blues were to trade him, they'd probably look for a number 1/2 LHD, and would likely add depending on the player. For the offer sheet that the Blues wouldn't match, I'd probably say any long term deal over 5.75. He's probably not worth 5.75, but they'd pay it just because he's so popular in the city.

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07-12-2012, 11:51 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ignatius View Post
Toronto? Check your username, Pens would offer at least that much for Oshie and probably more. Fits our system as well as anyone.


To Blues fans, what offer sheet do you think that your org wouldn't match for Oshie?
They probably match anything that a team reasonably offers someone who has never scored 20 goals in a season.

That said its a moot point as he can't accept offer sheets.

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07-12-2012, 11:52 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ignatius View Post
Toronto? Check your username, Pens would offer at least that much for Oshie and probably more. Fits our system as well as anyone.


To Blues fans, what offer sheet do you think that your org wouldn't match for Oshie?
He can't sign an offersheet any more, but anything $5.1m or more, or anything longer than 5 years would likely have made us think. Obviously part of it depends on the organization making the offer as well... they would be far more likely to match PIT 5x$5.1m than if it was Toronto.

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07-12-2012, 11:55 AM
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Part of me thinks that the best option is trading Oshie for a top partner for Petro. Someone like a Keith Yandle.

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07-12-2012, 12:35 PM
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I feel like people constantly either overrate or underrate Oshie.

He is a 1st/2nd line RW, who will most likely score between 55 and 65 points a season. He will play great defense. I'd say he will end up in the 25 goal range, he might hit around 30, but will never do it consistently.

Oshie won't be someone who will be a full-time top 6 center. He can play there short-term for injuries, but is not someone you should plan on being your center.

He plays a style that fans love and that's why some people will overrate him. At the same time, other people will simply look at his stats or see the overreaction, and counter that by underrating him.

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07-12-2012, 12:45 PM
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Overrused tag. There are too many greater defensive forwards than Oshie who can also put decent offensive numbers to say he has "Selke caliber defense". Starting with his own teammate.
Actually, he's not far off from Backes -- if any at all. His defensive game is much more anticipation/tenacity, but he puts up less numbers than Bergeron and plays a less visible brand of defense than Backes, so the Selke votes for him this year were present, but low.

...also, the teammate I believe you were referring to (Backes) said that his Selke nomination was as much a credit to the guy playing on his right (Oshie) as it was to him. A sentiment that Hitchcock has echoed.

Basically what I'm saying is that there are not many better defensive forwards (2-way, or not) in the game...especially when you bring puck possession (led the league in giveaway vs takeaway ration), board play, PK GA, etc... into the discussion.


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07-12-2012, 12:59 PM
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Actually, he's not far off from Backes -- if at all. His defensive game is much more akin to Bergeron, but he puts up less numbers than Bergeron and plays a less visible brand of defense than Backes, so the Selke votes for him this year were present, but low.

...also, the teammate I believe you were referring to (Backes) said that his Selke nomination was as much a credit to the guy playing on his right (Oshie) as it was to him. A sentiment that Hitchcock has echoed.

Basically what I'm saying is that there are not many better defensive forwards in the game...especially when you bring puck possession (led the league in giveaway vs takeaway ration), board play, PK GA, etc... into the discussion.
I won't try to convince you I know more about your beloved Blues than you do. But 2 observations:

- Backes is a great leader so I'm not surprised to hear him deflect the much deserved praise he received with his Selke nomination. The fact Hitchcock mirrored theses sentiments also portray a great team spirit, a spirit not stranger to the great turnaround the veteran coach has been able to accomplish this year with St. Louis.

- Oshie is a great defensive player, but he still has to sustain that high level of play over, at the very least, one or two additional years before being mentioned in the same breath as guys like Datsyuk, Bergeron, Backes, Kesler, Plekanec, Hossa, Toews, etc.

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07-12-2012, 01:01 PM
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Originally Posted by Clipitar View Post
Overrused tag. There are too many greater defensive forwards than Oshie who can also put decent offensive numbers to say he has "Selke caliber defense". Starting with his own teammate.
Oshie's advanced defensive stats (and the eye test) say he's almost identical with Backes in that department. If Oshie starts getting into the 65 point territory he'll get more Selke votes than he got this year.

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07-12-2012, 01:04 PM
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Oshie cannot receive an offer sheet so this thread is pretty pointless.

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07-12-2012, 01:06 PM
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Oshie should be a trade piece, but the Blues are in an impossible situation because they based marketing around him and trading him would be a significant PR hit.

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07-12-2012, 01:07 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Clipitar View Post
I won't try to convince you I know more about your beloved Blues than you do. But 2 observations:

- Backes is a great leader so I'm not surprised to hear him deflect the much deserved praise he received with his Selke nomination. The fact Hitchcock mirrored theses sentiments also portray a great team spirit, a spirit not stranger to the great turnaround the veteran coach has been able to accomplish this year with St. Louis.

- Oshie is a great defensive player, but he still has to sustain that high level of play over, at the very least, one or two additional years before being mentioned in the same breath as guys like Datsyuk, Bergeron, Backes, Kesler, Plekanec, Hossa, Toews, etc.
I agree with both points, but to be fair, his defensive game going back to his rookie year has been superb. He's been in the top 3 (at forward) in hits, PK time, even strength time, takeaways, and blocked shots since coming into the league.

Again, I think you're right, but I have little doubt he'll be at that same elite level this year as his defensive level did not appear out of nowhere last year.

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07-12-2012, 01:16 PM
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Oshie should be a trade piece, but the Blues are in an impossible situation because they based marketing around him and trading him would be a significant PR hit.
This point is completely overblown.

The diehard fan would know enough about the return and would still go to games because they are a diehard fan. The average fan only cares about the on-ice results, and this team would still win.

Our marketing is not based around Oshie, and we don't even market that much.

Oshie won't be traded because he is a valuable piece to the team because of his on-ice contributions. His golden locks and fan support have nothing to do with why he won't be traded.

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