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Old
07-12-2012, 11:31 PM
  #1
Drew75
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Question About Prospect Development

Ok - I see a lot of "our prospects aren't very good" and "Kadri / Colborne / <insert name here> will never make a big impact in the NHL", and my favorite - Mess's "play the kids and live with the consequences" comments ... and I don't get it.

Firstly, let preface this by saying - yes, I've followed, played, and studied hockey all of my life. When younger I was very close to the game as I was best friends with a guy who played in the NHL and was around prospects & NHL quite a bit. Essentially - I'm not a casual observer sitting at my computer, nor am I in any way a professional scout.

It seems if a kid gets drafted and doesn't end up on our first / second within a year or two he is automatically deemed a bust by a large portion of the HF Boards. That to me is just silly. Development of a hockey player - with some exceptions - takes time and patience.

It takes even longer time in Toronto. This is also why the whole "play the kids" idea is a very bad one.

Lets face it - Toronto is a fishbowl. Hockey players may be paid a lot of money to play a game for our entertainment - but that does not change the fact that are, in reality - still human. An 18 - 21 year kid is just that, an 18 - 21 year old. It's pretty easy for a kid to play and learn the pro game in a market like Carolina where the fans are too busy learning what "offside" means to notice the kids mistakes. In Toronto, however, it takes a great deal of maturity to not feel the enormous pressure of having your every mistake from the previous nights game discussed in depth by every sports station, call in show, blog, newspaper, and chat board. People who don't get that simple human element to it - IMO - are just being ignorant. It's easy to rip a 20 year old at your keyboard, much harder to be the kid getting ripped.

Kadri has a boatload of talent, and if far from being a bust. Same goes for Colborne, Ashton, etc, etc. Are the Leafs taking their sweet time with these guys? for sure - and I for one am very glad they are. Does that make the player a bust? Not in the slightest.

For curiosity sake, I looked through a couple of drafts from the early part of the decade. I used only forwards, as if I look at D, it would too easy to find examples and unfair to my point. I looked for players - from a very small sample size (3 drafts), who we would probably not mind having now - but who these boards would have labelled "busts" because of their development time.
  • Mikko Koivu - Three years in Europe + one year in the AHL + one year of sheltered minutes in the NHL.
  • Derek Roy - Two more years of junior + two years of AHL (in fairness, one was a lockout) + a 5th year split between both Buffalo and Rochester
  • Mike Cammalleri - one year of college + three years of AHL
  • Tomas Plekanic - one year in Europe + four years in the AHL
  • Patrick Sharp - one year in college + three years in the AHL + two years of sheltered minutes in the NHL
  • Alex Semin - One year in Russia + one year of sheltered minutes in NHL + two more years in Russia
  • Valtteri Filppula - two years in Europe + two years up and down between the Wings and Grand Rapids
  • Getzlaf & Perry - Two more years of junior + one year of up and down between the AHL & NHL + one year of sheltered minutes in the NHL
  • Loui Eriksson - two years in Europe + one year of AHL + two more years up and down between the AHL & NHL
  • David Backes - three years of college + one year of AHL + one more year up and down between the AHL & NHL
  • Matt Moulson - three years of college + three years of AHL

As you can see ... not every player steps right in to make an impact. I didn't even get to the guys who had 3 or more low point years before finally putting it together and becoming top six players.

A little patience can go a long way ... I just don't understand why those on these boards don't get that.

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07-12-2012, 11:34 PM
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07-12-2012, 11:40 PM
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People have been writing off Kadri for a long time now, independent of how well/slowly he's been developing. I think he just doesn't fit the mold of what people envision when they think of a "Good Maple Leaf".

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07-12-2012, 11:48 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Stephen View Post
People have been writing off Kadri for a long time now, independent of how well/slowly he's been developing. I think he just doesn't fit the mold of what people envision when they think of a "Good Maple Leaf".
But why is that? I see him more in the mold of a Gilmour-Lite without the defensive side ... smaller, scrappy, and can dangle the puck on a string.

What is the "Good Maple Leaf"? So if he was 3 inches taller he'd be gold?

Remember - "Leafs Nation" took about 6 or 7 YEARS to warm up to Sundin.

And for all the "experts" we have on here, these are the same "experts" who didn't care about late picks like Gunnarsson and Frattin until they delivered what the SAME SCOUTS WE HAVE NOW saw in them. These "experts" ripped on the Leafs scouts for Devane (who there is now a thread asking if he can make the team next year - - he won't by the way, lol - but it's funny how much the tune has changed none-the-less)

I am by no means saying the Kadri / Colborne or any of our prospects are a lock, but I have enough faith in our scouts, and patience in the development system to see positive signs for the future.

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07-13-2012, 12:13 AM
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Good thread. Explain to the HF "experts" that an 18 year old kid isnt on his make or break season and that a prospect over 20 years old isnt a bust.

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07-13-2012, 12:39 AM
  #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Drew75 View Post
Ok - I see a lot of "our prospects aren't very good" and "Kadri / Colborne / <insert name here> will never make a big impact in the NHL", and my favorite - Mess's "play the kids and live with the consequences" comments ... and I don't get it.

Firstly, let preface this by saying - yes, I've followed, played, and studied hockey all of my life. When younger I was very close to the game as I was best friends with a guy who played in the NHL and was around prospects & NHL quite a bit. Essentially - I'm not a casual observer sitting at my computer, nor am I in any way a professional scout.

It seems if a kid gets drafted and doesn't end up on our first / second within a year or two he is automatically deemed a bust by a large portion of the HF Boards. That to me is just silly. Development of a hockey player - with some exceptions - takes time and patience.

It takes even longer time in Toronto. This is also why the whole "play the kids" idea is a very bad one.

Lets face it - Toronto is a fishbowl. Hockey players may be paid a lot of money to play a game for our entertainment - but that does not change the fact that are, in reality - still human. An 18 - 21 year kid is just that, an 18 - 21 year old. It's pretty easy for a kid to play and learn the pro game in a market like Carolina where the fans are too busy learning what "offside" means to notice the kids mistakes. In Toronto, however, it takes a great deal of maturity to not feel the enormous pressure of having your every mistake from the previous nights game discussed in depth by every sports station, call in show, blog, newspaper, and chat board. People who don't get that simple human element to it - IMO - are just being ignorant. It's easy to rip a 20 year old at your keyboard, much harder to be the kid getting ripped.

Kadri has a boatload of talent, and if far from being a bust. Same goes for Colborne, Ashton, etc, etc. Are the Leafs taking their sweet time with these guys? for sure - and I for one am very glad they are. Does that make the player a bust? Not in the slightest.

For curiosity sake, I looked through a couple of drafts from the early part of the decade. I used only forwards, as if I look at D, it would too easy to find examples and unfair to my point. I looked for players - from a very small sample size (3 drafts), who we would probably not mind having now - but who these boards would have labelled "busts" because of their development time.
  • Mikko Koivu - Three years in Europe + one year in the AHL + one year of sheltered minutes in the NHL.
  • Derek Roy - Two more years of junior + two years of AHL (in fairness, one was a lockout) + a 5th year split between both Buffalo and Rochester
  • Mike Cammalleri - one year of college + three years of AHL
  • Tomas Plekanic - one year in Europe + four years in the AHL
  • Patrick Sharp - one year in college + three years in the AHL + two years of sheltered minutes in the NHL
  • Alex Semin - One year in Russia + one year of sheltered minutes in NHL + two more years in Russia
  • Valtteri Filppula - two years in Europe + two years up and down between the Wings and Grand Rapids
  • Getzlaf & Perry - Two more years of junior + one year of up and down between the AHL & NHL + one year of sheltered minutes in the NHL
  • Loui Eriksson - two years in Europe + one year of AHL + two more years up and down between the AHL & NHL
  • David Backes - three years of college + one year of AHL + one more year up and down between the AHL & NHL
  • Matt Moulson - three years of college + three years of AHL

As you can see ... not every player steps right in to make an impact. I didn't even get to the guys who had 3 or more low point years before finally putting it together and becoming top six players.

A little patience can go a long way ... I just don't understand why those on these boards don't get that.
I agree with this in my opinion the psychological aspect of playing in toronto should be studied by the upper management

Imo in toronto even if a player is ready to play at the age of 18 he should not be allowed too its not so much the ability as to the fact that a humans concept of self is not strong enough at the age of 18

The media chooses who to crown and who to crap out

Think of it this way 2 18 year olds go to university for the first time one is allowed to learn the ropes adapt to the new situation

While the other is micromanaged with an abdundance of negative feed back

It dosent matter if the latter is a future harvard prospect that amount of negative feedback at that age will destroy their mental state

Look what happened to schenn started off amazing had a sophmore slump media critized and critized to the point you could just tell he lost his swagger

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07-13-2012, 12:40 AM
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so your saying that if we're patient the Leafs prospects could develop into actual nhl players.

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07-13-2012, 12:41 AM
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Well put, I think the meat and potatoes of some players development help open some peoples eyes, but there will always be the skeptics, and Toronto's skies shall forever fall.

I for one am completely and utterly happy with the off season so far. Once you get over that initial hump of draft day, and free agent madness, you calm down and realize Burke did something that not many gm's do... he didn't give into pressure and is sticking to his game plan like he said he would. He continues to add pieces to his crew of kids that will eventually form the core of this team.

If anything this coming year, I am just as interested in catching the Marlies ! Hope to fly out there to watch a couple of their games

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07-13-2012, 12:46 AM
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The later age that the player enters the NHL, the less likely that they will dominate. The most dominant players (forwards) will enter 18, 19, 20 - say a Crosby or Stamkos. The older the player breaks in (Crabb) the less likely they will dominate or become a top 6 winger.

Now there are exceptions to both with young players that don't stick around. And players entering quite late and becoming a dominate force. Right now the average suggest that Kadri will top out as a line 2 forward . He may beat the average expectation and become a first line forward or fall short and never make it past line 3 forward.

But based on how players develop the average suggest he will top out as a line 2 winger. The other thing to look at is the specific players points per game in the AHL. For example, going from memory Getzlaf was a 2 point per game player in AHL and totally dominated competition at that level. But Kadri's ppg total is closer to say Tlusty. That doesn't mean he will develop as poorly as Tlusty but we shouldn't be expecting point production and dominant play like a Getzlaf either.

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07-13-2012, 12:50 AM
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What's the question?

And I completely agree with all points you made

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07-13-2012, 12:59 AM
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What's the question?

And I completely agree with all points you made
This x2 .

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07-13-2012, 01:24 AM
  #12
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Another point, for a guy like Colborne. He was a long term project, from the day he was drafted who had many of the tools but everyone knew he was gonna need to grow into his frame and catch up to his size, but his ability made him a Mess favourite leading up to the draft, and a worthy 1st round selection, but anyone draftiong him knew it would be several years.

Colborne developed just fine, and up until mid-season this year looked to be a high quality prospect. We have come now to know he had a significant injury which greatly affected his season, so hopefully he is what we we saw last fall and can continue to develop into a quality NHLer. Expecting him to be an elite 1st line center is a bit much, but a high quality 2nd line center would be great.

Don't believe these people who feel you need to have teenagers on your team to be considered young.

Here's a little tidbit to think about:

Morgan Rielly's last full season in the WHL, he was 16 years old. He missed his 17 year old season to injury, and just recently turned 18.

Nail Yakupov played almost all of last season as an 18 year old. He will turn 19 as the 2012 season starts.

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07-13-2012, 01:29 AM
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Excellent post by the the OP.

I find it sad when the same people say just play the kids which includes saying Kadri should have been in the NHL for a long time now are usually the same people who complain that Schenn was rushed.

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07-13-2012, 01:30 AM
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[QUOTE=number72;52492051]The later age that the player enters the NHL, the less likely that they will dominate. The most dominant players (forwards) will enter 18, 19, 20 - say a Crosby or Stamkos. The older the player breaks in (Crabb) the less likely they will dominate or become a top 6 winger.

Now there are exceptions to both with young players that don't stick around. And players entering quite late and becoming a dominate force. Right now the average suggest that Kadri will top out as a line 2 forward . He may beat the average expectation and become a first line forward or fall short and never make it past line 3 forward.

But based on how players develop the average suggest he will top out as a line 2 winger. The other thing to look at is the specific players points per game in the AHL. For example, going from memory Getzlaf was a 2 point per game player in AHL and totally dominated competition at that level. But Kadri's ppg total is closer to say Tlusty. That doesn't mean he will develop as poorly as Tlusty but we shouldn't be expecting point production and dominant play like a Getzlaf either



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07-13-2012, 01:46 AM
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people just need to relax and ****

back off the kids

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07-13-2012, 07:31 AM
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But why is that? I see him more in the mold of a Gilmour-Lite without the defensive side ... smaller, scrappy, and can dangle the puck on a string.

What is the "Good Maple Leaf"? So if he was 3 inches taller he'd be gold?

Remember - "Leafs Nation" took about 6 or 7 YEARS to warm up to Sundin.

And for all the "experts" we have on here, these are the same "experts" who didn't care about late picks like Gunnarsson and Frattin until they delivered what the SAME SCOUTS WE HAVE NOW saw in them. These "experts" ripped on the Leafs scouts for Devane (who there is now a thread asking if he can make the team next year - - he won't by the way, lol - but it's funny how much the tune has changed none-the-less)

I am by no means saying the Kadri / Colborne or any of our prospects are a lock, but I have enough faith in our scouts, and patience in the development system to see positive signs for the future.
What I have noticed with Kadri from how he played in the OHL compared to now is that he doesn't seem to be that guy who has some sandpaper to him liked he did in the OHL. You see once and a while but needs to be more consistant when we drafted him he looked like a guy with skill but be a bit of a pest at times, maybe like you said it might just take time but I just don't know how that part of your game just goes away, and Colborne he does need time just give to him he has the skill going tto be a beut. Like you said some guys just need time and take a little bit longer to develop.

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07-13-2012, 07:42 AM
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What I have noticed with Kadri from how he played in the OHL compared to now is that he doesn't seem to be that guy who has some sandpaper to him liked he did in the OHL. You see once and a while but needs to be more consistant when we drafted him he looked like a guy with skill but be a bit of a pest at times, maybe like you said it might just take time but I just don't know how that part of your game just goes away, and Colborne he does need time just give to him he has the skill going tto be a beut. Like you said some guys just need time and take a little bit longer to develop.
Its not that it went away, its just that it was ineffective against grown men. Very common phenomenon. He needs to grow strong which is dependent on the person. Not all people develop physically at the same ages, no matter how many weights you lift.

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07-13-2012, 08:17 AM
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But why is that? I see him more in the mold of a Gilmour-Lite without the defensive side ... smaller, scrappy, and can dangle the puck on a string.

What is the "Good Maple Leaf"? So if he was 3 inches taller he'd be gold?

Remember - "Leafs Nation" took about 6 or 7 YEARS to warm up to Sundin.

And for all the "experts" we have on here, these are the same "experts" who didn't care about late picks like Gunnarsson and Frattin until they delivered what the SAME SCOUTS WE HAVE NOW saw in them. These "experts" ripped on the Leafs scouts for Devane (who there is now a thread asking if he can make the team next year - - he won't by the way, lol - but it's funny how much the tune has changed none-the-less)

I am by no means saying the Kadri / Colborne or any of our prospects are a lock, but I have enough faith in our scouts, and patience in the development system to see positive signs for the future.
I don't know, it just seems like a lot of people don't like his personality.

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07-13-2012, 08:59 AM
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But why is that? I see him more in the mold of a Gilmour-Lite without the defensive side ... smaller, scrappy, and can dangle the puck on a string.

What is the "Good Maple Leaf"? So if he was 3 inches taller he'd be gold?

Remember - "Leafs Nation" took about 6 or 7 YEARS to warm up to Sundin.

And for all the "experts" we have on here, these are the same "experts" who didn't care about late picks like Gunnarsson and Frattin until they delivered what the SAME SCOUTS WE HAVE NOW saw in them. These "experts" ripped on the Leafs scouts for Devane (who there is now a thread asking if he can make the team next year - - he won't by the way, lol - but it's funny how much the tune has changed none-the-less)

I am by no means saying the Kadri / Colborne or any of our prospects are a lock, but I have enough faith in our scouts, and patience in the development system to see positive signs for the future.
I've also got complete faith in our scouting staff.

Our scouting staff under the guidance of Dave Morrison who has run every draft from 2006 onwards has been very good despite not having the best picks to work with.

Prospects generally take 5-7 years to develop.

In 2006 we drafted 5 NHL players:

First pick was Tlusty (yes, there was homeruns like Stewart/Giroux taken after him but Vancouver, Tampa, San Jose and LA also missed on their picks right after us. As did Anahiem, Montreal and the Rangers with their picks at the 19th, 20th and 21st draft slots). I also believe that the Ferguson administration not developing him properly was a big issue.
Kulemin
Reimer
Holzer
Stalberg
Komarov (possibly)

In 2007 we drafted 2 NHL players:
First pick was 74 overall
Frattin
Gunnarson

In 2008 we drafted 2 NHL players:
First pick was Schenn at 5th overall
Hayes (who is looking like he'll have an NHL career)

We haven't landed the homerun pick under Morrison but I'd argue that has more to do with what draft picks picks he has been given to work with.

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07-13-2012, 09:21 AM
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What I have noticed with Kadri from how he played in the OHL compared to now is that he doesn't seem to be that guy who has some sandpaper to him liked he did in the OHL. You see once and a while but needs to be more consistant when we drafted him he looked like a guy with skill but be a bit of a pest at times, maybe like you said it might just take time but I just don't know how that part of your game just goes away, and Colborne he does need time just give to him he has the skill going tto be a beut. Like you said some guys just need time and take a little bit longer to develop.
The pest game from Kadri has not disappeared IMO. He yaps all the time and gets under the oppositions skin. Physically, that's probably dropped off a bit, but it's understandable given his size at the moment. If he adds the necessary strength, that part could come back. I even believe his injury was the result of him attempting to hit a bigger opponent.

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07-13-2012, 09:43 AM
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I've been saying this for years. The teams that develop the best forwards IMO let them take time at lower levels and even when they go NHL they usually leave them on lower lines at first. Kadri is bang on pace with what good developers do.

Mike Richards - OHL, OHL, AHL/NHL
Jeff Carter - OHL, OHL/AHL, AHL/NHL
Claude Giroux - QMJHL/AHL, QMJHL/NHL, AHL/NHL
James Van Riemsdyk - NCAA, NCAA/AHL, NHL

Datsyuk - Russia, Russia, NHL
Zetterberg - SEL, SEL, SEL, NHL
Hudler - Czech, Russia, NHL/AHL, AHL/Czech, AHL/NHL

Couture - OHL, OHL/AHL, AHL/NHL
Setoguchi - WHL, WHL, AHL/NHL

IMO those are three of the best organizations in the league when it comes to developing talent. You'll notice that on most occasions, their guys aren't becoming full time NHLers until year 4 and even then, many of them get tasked to third line roles.

Toronto fans and media just don't like that we are subject to the same realities of developmental rates as everyone else.

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07-13-2012, 10:19 AM
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Patience is hard to come by these days, unfortunately. Well done good sir.

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07-13-2012, 10:44 AM
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OP, it's because most people on here don't seem to know much about hockey other than their own little fantasy world of video games etc.

In reality, very few players come in at 18-19 years old and make an impact.

Top 20 scorers this year and their first full NHL season:

Malkin: 20-21, two years after draft

Stamkos: 18-19, ineffective in first year, and great vets to help him along

Giroux: 21-22, took time to gain strength and be effective in NHL (Kadri?)

Spezza: 20-21

Kovalchuk: 18-19

Kessel: 18-19, quite ineffective at that age

Neal: 21-22

Tavares: 18-19

Sedins: 19-20, but weren't stars until 25-26

Elias: 21-22

Karlsson: 19-20

Hossa: 19-20

Whitney: 20-21:, wow look at his draft year stats, how did he make it to #23?

Thornton: 18-19, but took several years to be an impact player

Gaborik: 18-19

Eberle: 20-21

Kopitar: 19-20

St.Louis: 25-26, impact player in late 20s

Pominville: 23-24

Eriksson: 23-24



As you can see, most top players take at least 1 and more like 2-3 seasons after being drafted to play their 1st full NHL season. Then often add another 1-3 years before they become the star player we know of them now.


In addition to this list, there are the Getzlaf , Perry, B. Richards, Alfredsson who all took 2-3 years to make it, then another 1-2 to become stars.

Then there are the Datsyuks, Zetterberg, Sharp, Ribeiro group who were all well into their 20s before making the jump.


I think our prospects are just fine in their development. For example, Kadri/Colborne were both expected to be longer -term prospects anyway. IMO, they are right on track and both still have the potential to become stars.

Will they for sure.... who knows. But for people to act like they won't because they aren't stars at 21 is silly.

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07-13-2012, 10:48 AM
  #24
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Originally Posted by Drew75 View Post
Ok - I see a lot of "our prospects aren't very good" and "Kadri / Colborne / <insert name here> will never make a big impact in the NHL", and my favorite - Mess's "play the kids and live with the consequences" comments ... and I don't get it.

Firstly, let preface this by saying - yes, I've followed, played, and studied hockey all of my life. When younger I was very close to the game as I was best friends with a guy who played in the NHL and was around prospects & NHL quite a bit. Essentially - I'm not a casual observer sitting at my computer, nor am I in any way a professional scout.

It seems if a kid gets drafted and doesn't end up on our first / second within a year or two he is automatically deemed a bust by a large portion of the HF Boards. That to me is just silly. Development of a hockey player - with some exceptions - takes time and patience.

It takes even longer time in Toronto. This is also why the whole "play the kids" idea is a very bad one.

Lets face it - Toronto is a fishbowl. Hockey players may be paid a lot of money to play a game for our entertainment - but that does not change the fact that are, in reality - still human. An 18 - 21 year kid is just that, an 18 - 21 year old. It's pretty easy for a kid to play and learn the pro game in a market like Carolina where the fans are too busy learning what "offside" means to notice the kids mistakes. In Toronto, however, it takes a great deal of maturity to not feel the enormous pressure of having your every mistake from the previous nights game discussed in depth by every sports station, call in show, blog, newspaper, and chat board. People who don't get that simple human element to it - IMO - are just being ignorant. It's easy to rip a 20 year old at your keyboard, much harder to be the kid getting ripped.

Kadri has a boatload of talent, and if far from being a bust. Same goes for Colborne, Ashton, etc, etc. Are the Leafs taking their sweet time with these guys? for sure - and I for one am very glad they are. Does that make the player a bust? Not in the slightest.

For curiosity sake, I looked through a couple of drafts from the early part of the decade. I used only forwards, as if I look at D, it would too easy to find examples and unfair to my point. I looked for players - from a very small sample size (3 drafts), who we would probably not mind having now - but who these boards would have labelled "busts" because of their development time.
  • Mikko Koivu - Three years in Europe + one year in the AHL + one year of sheltered minutes in the NHL.
  • Derek Roy - Two more years of junior + two years of AHL (in fairness, one was a lockout) + a 5th year split between both Buffalo and Rochester
  • Mike Cammalleri - one year of college + three years of AHL
  • Tomas Plekanic - one year in Europe + four years in the AHL
  • Patrick Sharp - one year in college + three years in the AHL + two years of sheltered minutes in the NHL
  • Alex Semin - One year in Russia + one year of sheltered minutes in NHL + two more years in Russia
  • Valtteri Filppula - two years in Europe + two years up and down between the Wings and Grand Rapids
  • Getzlaf & Perry - Two more years of junior + one year of up and down between the AHL & NHL + one year of sheltered minutes in the NHL
  • Loui Eriksson - two years in Europe + one year of AHL + two more years up and down between the AHL & NHL
  • David Backes - three years of college + one year of AHL + one more year up and down between the AHL & NHL
  • Matt Moulson - three years of college + three years of AHL

As you can see ... not every player steps right in to make an impact. I didn't even get to the guys who had 3 or more low point years before finally putting it together and becoming top six players.

A little patience can go a long way ... I just don't understand why those on these boards don't get that.
Excellent post.

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07-13-2012, 10:59 AM
  #25
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