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Summer 2012 Free Agency: Holy God, match that offersheet please, Nashville

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Old
07-19-2012, 10:19 AM
  #951
Ominous Grey
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Originally Posted by psupens View Post
that also handcuffs the Pens. i don't want Giroux at $10M per for the next 15 years.
You think they wouldn't match?

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07-19-2012, 10:19 AM
  #952
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And the memes have begun ...


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07-19-2012, 10:19 AM
  #953
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Originally Posted by Ominous Grey View Post
We should offer-sheet Giroux. Handcuff the **** out of them.

15 years, 150 million. They'd have to match.
He'd never sign with the Penguins. There is real animosity there. Just like Parise said no to teh Rangers ahead of time, Giroux wouldn't sign here for any amount IMO.

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07-19-2012, 10:20 AM
  #954
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Originally Posted by Chancellor Vitale View Post
I wasn't suggesting they won't match. I was saying to Kirk earlier, Nashville has no power (currently) to do anything with Weber, other than sign him or trade him to Philly. He was asking if they could trade him to NYR. I think the answer is clearly: they can't trade him to anyone, under any circumstance, unless they sign him first. That ship has sailed and it's in Philly's harbor for now.
Right. He's currently Philly's defenseman, but I really have a hard time believing it's for long. That's what I was saying to those who freak out saying, "OMG, Shero does nothing, and we suck so much!"

Sometimes it's better to do nothing. And what really gets me is it's not like Shero did nothing. He had probably close to 200 million dollars of contract money offered to both Parise and Suter this offseason. You win some you lose some. Not every player wants to come to Pittsburgh.

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07-19-2012, 10:21 AM
  #955
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Their first choice is having Weber there longterm. But we don't know if he wants to be. Suter leaving had to be a big shocker for him. Maybe he wants out and got tired of the contract negotiations. He's guaranteed his mega deal. Can still request a trade down the road.

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07-19-2012, 10:21 AM
  #956
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Originally Posted by Ogrezilla View Post
I agree matching and just keeping him is the way to go. But matching him and trading him is still the better hockey move compared to not matching. Obviously its a money issue there.
Yes, match and trade is the way to go. My point was that I see them trading in 6-8 years, not 12 months. Seems to maximize the value of the deal.

Poile wanted him for 7 years, for up to 9M per.

It's costing him 10M. Stings, but doable under the budget with Suter gone.

Plus, what you get for investing that extra 1M per is the ability to trade a 33 year old Weber anywhere in 7 years (where even the financially struggling teams will love the idea of getting him where the salary is less than the cap hit).

I just don't see why Nashville would pay Weber 26M and then trade him. They don't want to trade him, and I'll bet you a 33 year old Weber gets a bounty pretty close to what a 27 year old Weber gets.

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07-19-2012, 10:21 AM
  #957
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Why the hell do people keep saying "Nashville will match and then they can trade him in a year...". For a small market team, the issue is the money up front. If they are matching the offer, they better be keeping him long term. They can't fork out 28 mil over one calendar year and then trade their captain and franchise player unless they are getting a franchise player coming the other way.

Paying all that money out in one year and then trading him for a re-build could severely hurt the value of the franchise. If attendance goes down the year after the deal, they could be screwed.

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07-19-2012, 10:22 AM
  #958
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ominous Grey View Post
We should offer-sheet Giroux. Handcuff the **** out of them.

15 years, 150 million. They'd have to match.
And G would have to sign

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07-19-2012, 10:23 AM
  #959
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Do the Preds even have the ability to shell out $28M in the next calendar year and $56M by 2015? The structure of this offer sheet is clearly designed to scare off the Preds from matching.

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07-19-2012, 10:24 AM
  #960
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JTG View Post
Right. He's currently Philly's defenseman, but I really have a hard time believing it's for long. That's what I was saying to those who freak out saying, "OMG, Shero does nothing, and we suck so much!"

Sometimes it's better to do nothing. And what really gets me is it's not like Shero did nothing. He had probably close to 200 million dollars of contract money offered to both Parise and Suter this offseason. You win some you lose some. Not every player wants to come to Pittsburgh.

Yah I got no problems with Shero making legit offers but not selling the farm to get guys. I do think Nashville will match, and if it's super-loaded in the first year, I think they won't trade him after. Why trade him after you've already paid out the biggest amount and his hit is close to what you were willing to pay anyway (less actually, if the 7 yr $63M thing is true. That's a $9M hit). In that case I think they'd hold onto him for another 4-5 years as Kirk said and then trade him.

If the front loading thing is not true, and they pay more over time, I think they'd trade him earlier possibly as early as next summer. But I wouldn't recommend the board gets its hopes up that it's to us.

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07-19-2012, 10:24 AM
  #961
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Originally Posted by Shady Machine View Post
Why the hell do people keep saying "Nashville will match and then they can trade him in a year...". For a small market team, the issue is the money up front. If they are matching the offer, they better be keeping him long term. They can't fork out 28 mil over one calendar year and then trade their captain and franchise player unless they are getting a franchise player coming the other way.

Paying all that money out in one year and then trading him for a re-build could severely hurt the value of the franchise. If attendance goes down the year after the deal, they could be screwed.
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.

IMO, if they trade him, it's in 6-8 years. Weber, at 32-34, will start to be in a decline. Everyone and their mother will want him, especially given the salary versus cap hit, and Poile can move him anywhere he wants.

By matching the offer sheet, Poile gets 7 years of prime career Weber and then the ability to trade a 33 year old Weber anywhere he wants (and to retool his team in that deal). It costs him like 1M or so more a year than he'd hoped to pay, but, as I said, with Suter gone, he can do it under the budget.

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07-19-2012, 10:25 AM
  #962
Ominous Grey
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chancellor Vitale View Post
He'd never sign with the Penguins. There is real animosity there. Just like Parise said no to teh Rangers ahead of time, Giroux wouldn't sign here for any amount IMO.
You're probably right. Couldn't hurt to try though.


Voracek then. I want to mess with them. Badly.

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07-19-2012, 10:26 AM
  #963
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Originally Posted by Dupree13 View Post
Do the Preds even have the ability to shell out $28M in the next calendar year and $56M by 2015? The structure of this offer sheet is clearly designed to scare off the Preds from matching.
They were prepared, from a budget perspective, to keep BOTH Weber AND Suter. Poile was offering Suter a deal like Minnesota, and he was thinking about extending Weber for up to 9M a year, depending upon term. What do you think?

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07-19-2012, 10:26 AM
  #964
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Originally Posted by KIRK View Post
Yes, match and trade is the way to go. My point was that I see them trading in 6-8 years, not 12 months. Seems to maximize the value of the deal.

Poile wanted him for 7 years, for up to 9M per.

It's costing him 10M. Stings, but doable under the budget with Suter gone.

Plus, what you get for investing that extra 1M per is the ability to trade a 33 year old Weber anywhere in 7 years (where even the financially struggling teams will love the idea of getting him where the salary is less than the cap hit).

I just don't see why Nashville would pay Weber 26M and then trade him. They don't want to trade him, and I'll bet you a 33 year old Weber gets a bounty pretty close to what a 27 year old Weber gets.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shady Machine View Post
Why the hell do people keep saying "Nashville will match and then they can trade him in a year...". For a small market team, the issue is the money up front. If they are matching the offer, they better be keeping him long term. They can't fork out 28 mil over one calendar year and then trade their captain and franchise player unless they are getting a franchise player coming the other way.

Paying all that money out in one year and then trading him for a re-build could severely hurt the value of the franchise. If attendance goes down the year after the deal, they could be screwed.
I think the people saying match and trade are doing it under the assumption that signing an offer sheet is Weber declaring he doesn't want to be there.

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07-19-2012, 10:26 AM
  #965
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ominous Grey View Post
You think they wouldn't match?
i would think he signs with ANY team offering him an average of $10M PER YEAR.

a few reasons why this wouldn't go well for the Pens:
1. they lose a ton of first rounders (late ones hopefully but still)
2. they are sharply overpaying for a player like Giroux
3. they are sharply overpaying for a player like Giroux for the next 15 years
4. you'd have to PRAY that the Flyers want to match it, because i think deep down in their hearts, they believe that even the almighty Claude Giroux isn't worth $10M for the next 15 years

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07-19-2012, 10:26 AM
  #966
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The point is that they can match and move him later on if need be. When that happens is up to Poile.

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07-19-2012, 10:26 AM
  #967
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Kirk: it would cost him LESS if your 7yr, $63M thing (not sure where that came from) is true. Right now his hit is being calculated at around $7.8M. The hit you're talking about would've been $9M.

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07-19-2012, 10:28 AM
  #968
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ominous Grey View Post
We should offer-sheet Giroux. Handcuff the **** out of them.

15 years, 150 million. They'd have to match.
Sorry for interrupting, but Giroux won't be unsigned on July 1st.

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07-19-2012, 10:29 AM
  #969
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Quote:
Originally Posted by psupens View Post
i would think he signs with ANY team offering him an average of $10M PER YEAR.

a few reasons why this wouldn't go well for the Pens:
1. they lose a ton of first rounders (late ones hopefully but still)
2. they are sharply overpaying for a player like Giroux
3. they are sharply overpaying for a player like Giroux for the next 15 years
4. you'd have to PRAY that the Flyers want to match it, because i think deep down in their hearts, they believe that even the almighty Claude Giroux isn't worth $10M for the next 15 years
No way they don't match it. They're too prideful.

And if not, hey, we have the space and we have Sid's winger for a decade. Even at a 3M overpay.

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07-19-2012, 10:30 AM
  #970
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Not sure if I believe this Weber signing since everyone has been saying that guys won't sign with the Flyers since they trade everybody they sign to a long-term contract, have no loyalty, etc.


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07-19-2012, 10:30 AM
  #971
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Originally Posted by Ogrezilla View Post
I think the people saying match and trade are doing it under the assumption that signing an offer sheet is Weber declaring he doesn't want to be there.
I don't know if I see it that way. I mean, if that were the case, why not go to arbitration, get another 1 year deal and then become a UFA and pick your destination?

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07-19-2012, 10:31 AM
  #972
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Hope Nashville can find the money to match this. Not only does this make Philly much better, but I'd like to see Nashville get a better return than 4 20+ firsts. These long deals are getting a little out of hand though, and it does need to be addressed.

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07-19-2012, 10:31 AM
  #973
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there is maybe a 1% chance Giroux ever sees a July 1st without already having a Flyers contract. I'd bet good money it never happens.

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07-19-2012, 10:31 AM
  #974
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Originally Posted by stefanh View Post
I certainly wouldn't be surprised if they match.

the term is even worse than that though:

14 14 14 14 12 12 6 6 6 6 3 1 1 1

Almost everything in the first 6 years are signing bonuses btw.

$80M for the first 6 years of the deal.
Thanks for the numbers.

So, say you keep him for 8 years.

That's 92M, which is 11.5M. That's a full 2.5M more than the max Poile wanted to pay per year (a tougher number, to be sure).

BUT, Poile had money budgeted for Suter AND Weber. Suter is gone. So, he just allocates less to a Suter replacement.

In 8 years, Weber is 34. He'll have 6 years left on a deal due to pay 24M in salary with a cap hit of 7.877M per year.

Imagine what Poile could get if he tried to unload THAT contract. Teams would line up for Weber on the merits, but your cash strapped teams OR teams that really can't get any names to sign will be offering unreal bounties, the type of bounties that sustain and retool an organization.

It stings to match, but it just means Poile allocates less money for Suter replacement and, in return, gets one heck of a trade chip in say 8 years.

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07-19-2012, 10:31 AM
  #975
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Originally Posted by Shady Machine View Post
I don't know if I see it that way. I mean, if that were the case, why not go to arbitration, get another 1 year deal and then become a UFA and pick your destination?
I don't know either; I'm just giving you the reasoning for people saying sign and trade.

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