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Can Kessel statistically reach 50 goals?

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Old
07-18-2012, 11:29 AM
  #26
ACC1224
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I fully expect Kessel to score 50 at some point in his Leaf career.

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07-18-2012, 11:32 AM
  #27
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I'd rather Kessel score 20 and the leafs make playoff than him score 50 and not.

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07-18-2012, 11:37 AM
  #28
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BobloblawLeaf View Post
Kessel scored 36 goals on the Bruins playing with Marc Savard and Milan Lucic.

The fact that his numbers dropped the following year on the 2nd worst team in the league playing alongside far inferior linemates is not surprising. Every year since joining the Leafs Kessel's game, and statistical output has improved.

Don't forget that Kessel was able to score 36 goals while playing under Claude Julien who is a similar coach to Carlyle. You're right that Kessel's upside is most likely 40 goals, but if everything goes right for him he could have a 50 goal year.
There is a trade off. On the one hand Kessel had lower quality team mates on leafs and even now doesn't have a 1C.

And on the other, Kessel is older and so is scoring should increase as does with other young wingers. And Wilson run and gun worked better than a more conservative defensive style by Julien.

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07-18-2012, 11:40 AM
  #29
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Originally Posted by thebluemachine View Post
Yet this defense oriented game plan did'nt stop Kessel from breaking out and being the 6th highest producing player in the NHL last season.
If you had taken the time to read or analyze the situation the numbers show dramatic decline as the season progressed, particularly under the new coach.

Under Carlyle, Kessel scored 5 goals 5 assists in 15 games in March, and was 0-3-3 points in 3 games in April..

18 games total with 5 goals 8 assists 13 points. [= 23 goal & 59 point pace over 82 games].

A 23 goal pace (under Carlyle) is < 1/2 of the potential 50 goal season question posed here.

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07-18-2012, 11:42 AM
  #30
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Originally Posted by Hotlanta View Post
Sorry if this doesn't deserve its own thread but looking at Kessel's statistics, can he statistically become a consistent 50 goal scorer?
A consistent 50 goal scorer? No. But then, who is?

I think he can hit the 50 goal mark at some point in his career. He'll need better linemates though. And a coach who is willing to let him off the leash.

If Jason Blake could pot 40 in a single season, it's possible.

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07-18-2012, 11:43 AM
  #31
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Put him next to Crosby,Malkin,Thornton,Getzlaf ..ya he definitely could

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07-18-2012, 11:43 AM
  #32
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mess View Post
If you had taken the time to read or analyze the situation the numbers show dramatic decline as the season progressed, particularly under the new coach.

Under Carlyle, Kessel scored 5 goals 5 assists in 15 games in March, and was 0-3-3 points in 3 games in April..

18 games total with 5 goals 8 assists 13 points. [= 23 goal & 59 point pace over 82 games].

A 23 goal pace (under Carlyle) is < 1/2 of the potential 50 goal season question posed here.
kessel's heart wasnt in it after the leafs were eliminated..not making excuses for him but anyone who watched the games in full could probably agree with me

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07-18-2012, 11:57 AM
  #33
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mess View Post
If you had taken the time to read or analyze the situation the numbers show dramatic decline as the season progressed, particularly under the new coach.

Under Carlyle, Kessel scored 5 goals 5 assists in 15 games in March, and was 0-3-3 points in 3 games in April..

18 games total with 5 goals 8 assists 13 points. [= 23 goal & 59 point pace over 82 games].

A 23 goal pace (under Carlyle) is < 1/2 of the potential 50 goal season question posed here.
Are you suggesting that his dip in production was affected by Carlyle's coaching style more than the loss of Lupul at the end of the season?

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07-18-2012, 11:59 AM
  #34
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mess View Post
If you had taken the time to read or analyze the situation the numbers show dramatic decline as the season progressed, particularly under the new coach.

Under Carlyle, Kessel scored 5 goals 5 assists in 15 games in March, and was 0-3-3 points in 3 games in April..

18 games total with 5 goals 8 assists 13 points. [= 23 goal & 59 point pace over 82 games].

A 23 goal pace (under Carlyle) is < 1/2 of the potential 50 goal season question posed here.
Kessel was also playing with a bum wrist in the last stretch of the season, it was obvious he was in some discomfort because he was passing up prime shooting locations(for his standards).

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07-18-2012, 12:04 PM
  #35
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mess View Post
If you had taken the time to read or analyze the situation the numbers show dramatic decline as the season progressed, particularly under the new coach.

Under Carlyle, Kessel scored 5 goals 5 assists in 15 games in March, and was 0-3-3 points in 3 games in April..

18 games total with 5 goals 8 assists 13 points. [= 23 goal & 59 point pace over 82 games].

A 23 goal pace (under Carlyle) is < 1/2 of the potential 50 goal season question posed here.
I have, you just assume that everyone else hasn't.

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07-18-2012, 12:04 PM
  #36
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The injury to Lupul obviously hurt his production in March and April and also had a wrist injury near the end. Without Lupul, Kessel would have no other real top 6 guys for support. It'll just be like when before the Leafs traded for Lupul who can finish on Kessel's passes. His support won't be able to produce consistently and so he would most likely be more inconsistent but would still manage 30ish goals and 60-70 points. Since adding Lupul, I believe they both have been ppg.

With top 6 winger (Lupul) and a number 1C who can at least put up close to 60 points, we can see Kessel could get close to 50.

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07-18-2012, 12:09 PM
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Hard to hit 50 goals without doing so statistically.

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07-18-2012, 12:10 PM
  #38
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Originally Posted by HenryH View Post
The injury to Lupul obviously hurt his production in March and April and also had a wrist injury near the end. Without Lupul, Kessel would have no other real top 6 guys for support. It'll just be like when before the Leafs traded for Lupul who can finish on Kessel's passes. His support won't be able to produce consistently and so he would most likely be more inconsistent but would still manage 30ish goals and 60-70 points. Since adding Lupul, I believe they both have been ppg.

With top 6 winger (Lupul) and a number 1C who can at least put up close to 60 points, we can see Kessel could get close to 50.
This type of excuse just proves how poor the timing of the 'trade' was. The leafs were not in a spot to best leverage his elite skills. And for that matter they are still not - given the team is still a bubble team.

I see two possibilities here if we clear away the excuses
1. Kessel is not gifted enough to be a 50 goal scorer
2. Burke to date has set up Kessel to fail to achieve his full potential on the leafs.

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07-18-2012, 12:20 PM
  #39
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Can and will score 50 a few times in his career, yes.

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07-18-2012, 12:35 PM
  #40
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Highly doubtful Phil ever scores 50 in this league.

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07-18-2012, 12:37 PM
  #41
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dont no about 50 goals but 90 points 40g 50a could happen... tyler bozak missed about 10-15 empty net goals last year that kessel woulda got assists on

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07-18-2012, 12:41 PM
  #42
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mess View Post
If you had taken the time to read or analyze the situation the numbers show dramatic decline as the season progressed, particularly under the new coach.

Under Carlyle, Kessel scored 5 goals 5 assists in 15 games in March, and was 0-3-3 points in 3 games in April..

18 games total with 5 goals 8 assists 13 points. [= 23 goal & 59 point pace over 82 games].

A 23 goal pace (under Carlyle) is < 1/2 of the potential 50 goal season question posed here.
I am not looking into those statistics too much.

I mean the team as a whole was 6-9-3 under Carlyle (where the team only scored 39 goals for a GF/G of only 2.16), which followed us going 1-8-1, meaning his confidence (like the whole teams) was gone. Mixed in with the team's collapse and elimination from the playoffs, which was obviously a huge deflation to all our players, it is clear that the team lacked any motivation in that final stretch. You also can't forget to add in the fact Lupul went down which definitely didn't help improve his numbers.

It is honestly no surprise Kessel's numbers dipped when the team was playing their worst hockey of the season. Given the circumstances, it is per-mature to attribute this fall in points to the coach.

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07-18-2012, 12:51 PM
  #43
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Would be disappointed if he never achieves 40 just because I think we can all agree he has the potential. 50 goals is difficult however.

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07-18-2012, 12:55 PM
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With an AHL centerman, he gets low-mid 30's.
With a good centerman, high 30's.
With an elite centerman, low-mid 40's.

But I think 50's far fetched. He'd have to have a hell of a season.

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07-18-2012, 01:01 PM
  #45
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I think he can. Look at the numbers he's put up with Bozak as the #1 C.
Who was Malkin's center?

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07-18-2012, 01:03 PM
  #46
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Originally Posted by Disgruntled Observer View Post
With an AHL centerman, he gets low-mid 30's.
With a good centerman, high 30's.
With an elite centerman, low-mid 40's.

But I think 50's far fetched. He'd have to have a hell of a season.
He was close to on pace this season with Bozak friggin' centring him until the wheels fell off the entire team. I think he's just this side of a lock for doing it personally.

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07-18-2012, 01:04 PM
  #47
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Originally Posted by Mess View Post
If you had taken the time to read or analyze the situation the numbers show dramatic decline as the season progressed, particularly under the new coach.

Under Carlyle, Kessel scored 5 goals 5 assists in 15 games in March, and was 0-3-3 points in 3 games in April..

18 games total with 5 goals 8 assists 13 points. [= 23 goal & 59 point pace over 82 games].

A 23 goal pace (under Carlyle) is < 1/2 of the potential 50 goal season question posed here.
That is such a small sample size that it isn't even worth mentioning in an argument. Not to mention the fact that Lupul was injured and the guy was playing under a brand new coach with no hope of making the playoffs.

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07-18-2012, 01:08 PM
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Originally Posted by Squiffy View Post
He was close to on pace this season with Bozak friggin' centring him until the wheels fell off the entire team. I think he's just this side of a lock for doing it personally.
I know he was close to that pace for a portion of this season, but that's kind of his issue, right? He's streaky.

A few seasons of 40 goals would have me more than content. (With him personally as a player... not the trade.)

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07-18-2012, 01:08 PM
  #49
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Originally Posted by ULF_55 View Post
Who was Malkin's center?
?? He's a center and his line mates are Neal and Kunitz, whom are both very solid. Not to mention the guy is probably the best hockey player in the world.

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Old
07-18-2012, 01:14 PM
  #50
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Maybe he reaches 50 goals a couple times during his career but I see him hovering around the 35-45 goals every year for sure.

Quite the offensive talent and will hopefully continue to improve and mature as a player.

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