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Can Kessel statistically reach 50 goals?

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Old
07-18-2012, 03:23 PM
  #76
Briecheeze
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I haven't seen this brought up in the thread, but he has the talent to break 50.

The problem is his conditioning. He wears down over the season (not just this season, but in seasons past), and anyone who's seen him up close can tell he's not quite as in hockey shape as other players.

Of course, I could be wrong, and it might not be a trend (especially considering he's had seasons where he's had to recover from cancer and shoulder surgery)

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Old
07-18-2012, 03:54 PM
  #77
number72
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Originally Posted by dimi78 View Post
So an 80+ point season was setting up Kessel to fail?

My god guys give this a rest will you. Kessel is one of the best young players in the game and one of the few players other teams have to prepare a game plan before playing him to shut him down, you just can't lose sight of this player he'll burn you more times than not .

Heaven sake never has there ever been a player so undervalued in Leaf Land then Phill Kessel with this constant b!tching about the trade that brought him here. He was the best player in the trade the day it happen and 3 years later still is the best player and the b!tching continues as if the Leafs came out of it with nothing.

Anyway I know people are still with the opinion that Kessel needs a star playmaking center to get better I'm not so sure that he requires that. What makes him so dangerous is that he's not a goal scorer who relies on a 1 timer to score, he has the rare ability to create his in own goal scoring opportunities and is most dangerous when he has the puck on his stick creating plays for himself and for teammates rather than waiting for a pass.

NET PRESENCE. Get Kessel a line mate who will be a net presence cause screens in front of the net win battles on the wall, strong on the cycle with a scoring touch along with Lupul not only will Kessel score more but his assists will climb as well. Too many times he lets shots off and theres nobody there to tap the rebound in + a player like this will open space for him to be both a playmaking goal scoring winger. The perfect center for Kessel IMO is Backes or J. Staal

Not only that form a legitimate 2nd scoring line that would cause match up issues for the opposition. Do this and the Boston's of the world wont be able to send big bad Chara and there shut down line on him shift for shift.
I'm not the person blaming Kessel sub 40 or 50 goal production on the lack of #1C.

You seem confused - you say he does not a 1C and than contradict yourself and say Staal/Backes would be perfect.


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Originally Posted by TeamBester View Post
I didn't say that. Name one current player that is younger than Phil that has scored 4 straight 30 goal seasons.
Not a current player but Gartner had something like 15 x 30 goal seasons but that talked to his season to season consistency rather than him being an elite scorer.

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07-18-2012, 04:14 PM
  #78
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I don't see why not. He could've easily hit 40 this year, way too many missed opportunities. He'll probably be a consistent 35-40 goal scorer but if the bounces and chances go his way, i can see him hitting 50.

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07-18-2012, 04:38 PM
  #79
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Originally Posted by Mess View Post
When Kessel was acquired 3 seasons ago he was 21 and had just scored 36 goals. Now he is 24 and has scored 37 goals (+1 goal improvement) on career best over 3 seasons, with seasons of 30 & 32 goals in between those two marks.

Trending shows consistency of recording 30ish goals a season, but not improvement over time and experience.
Yes, let's just ignore the quality of players he's played with to get 36 goals at 20-21, and who he's had to play with before Lupul got here. Not showing any improvement, ha.

If a trend shows anything, it shows him capable of carrying his entire line on his back, something he was never asked to do in Boston. Even when he's put in a position to fail, and the cards are stacked against him, he will not fold. Without complaint, he'll battle to make the best of a bad situation.

Put him with similar calibre players, and you will see him shine (as his PPG pace with Lupul in the lineup would indicate).

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Originally Posted by Mess View Post
The league is getting more and more "defense first oriented" and goals for scored league wise is declining. Ron Wilson's offensive pond hockey style would benefit a goal scorer, whereas Carlyle's system will ask/demand Kessel to become a more complete 2-way player, and focus on his defensive responsibilities more then scoring more goals when better defense is expected from the Leafs overall.
Give him an offensive threat down the middle, and it'll more than offset any stiflings that a defensive system may impose.

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Originally Posted by Mess View Post
We saw this effect already playing out last season where he scored 10 goals in 11 games in Oct, and 6 goals in 14 games in Nov giving him 16 goals after his first 25 games (.64 GPG pace), when Wilson was in charge.. He managed 21 over the rest of the year (57 games @ .37 GPG pace) to reach 37 total.. However where he finished he season in his last 18 games of the year in March and April under new coach Carlyle where he scored just 5 (.28 GPG pace = 23 goals in 82 games). Hot start and continual decline throughout the season, particularly under the new coach and system. How much Lupul's injury down the stretch the one factor we don't know how it impacted Kessel's goal production under Carlyle.
I'm sure Lupul's injury had nothing to do with his declining totals. I mean, that guy's a total offensive black hole, Kessel should have increased his goalscoring having Loops out of the lineup, right?

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Originally Posted by Mess View Post
Kessel is a pure sniper with a great shot, so 40's goal range is achievable, with a little luck and few good bounces and breaks along the way, but all other aspects in play indicate downward pressure on his goal totals all things considered.
Yes, considering he's just about to enter his primes, he'll be lucky to every score 40 goals a season in his career.

Where do you come up with all this?

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Old
07-18-2012, 04:41 PM
  #80
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Originally Posted by 4evaBlue View Post
Yes, let's just ignore the quality of players he's played with to get 36 goals at 20-21, and who he's had to play with before Lupul got here. Not showing any improvement, ha.

If a trend shows anything, it shows him capable of carrying his entire line on his back, something he was never asked to do in Boston. Even when he's put in a position to fail, and the cards are stacked against him, he will not fold. Without complaint, he'll battle to make the best of a bad situation.

Put him with similar calibre players, and you will see him shine (as his PPG pace with Lupul in the lineup would indicate).



Give him an offensive threat down the middle, and it'll more than offset any stiflings that a defensive system may impose.



I'm sure Lupul's injury had nothing to do with his declining totals. I mean, that guy's a total offensive black hole, Kessel should have increased his goalscoring having Loops out of the lineup, right?



Yes, considering he's just about to enter his primes, he'll be lucky to every score 40 goals a season in his career.

Where do you come up with all this?
Posterior. There should be a significant expectation on increased production going from Marc Savard to Bozak.

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Old
07-18-2012, 04:57 PM
  #81
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It's funny that someone brought up Mike Gartner cuz I think him and Kessel are similar.

I think Kessel will hit 50 one year. But I think he'll make a career of consistently being in the 35-45 year after year, like Gartner.

Problem with Kessel is when he goes into funks he disappears and it takes him a while to get out.

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Old
07-18-2012, 05:06 PM
  #82
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hotlanta View Post
Sorry if this doesn't deserve its own thread but looking at Kessel's statistics, can he statistically become a consistent 50 goal scorer?

2012:
Shot % 12.5
Shots 295
Kessel would have needed to shoot at a 17% success rate (1.5% higher then his best Shot%, he had with Boston) or have taken 400 shots, 61 more then Malkin's league high.

The most realistic way for him to reach 50 goals would be to increase his Shot% to 14.5% and increase his shots to 340 but then would he be compromising on his passing abilities?
'Hey guys, here are some numbers to ponder'
'Nah, OP, I'll base my estimation of Kessel's goal scoring abilities on a gut feeling'.


OP had a good point but no one even looked at it. Increasing shot output and accuracy by that much is hard.

Kessel is pretty damn good and exciting to watch. I certainly hope to see him ratchet a few 40 goals seasons which seem harder to pull than 50 goal twnety years ago. I mean, only 4 players scored more than 40 last seasons... In 92-93 at least 10 players scored more than 50 (the entire top 10 when I looked, dunno after that).

50 goals? I wish Kessel this much success but it's unlikely unless the NHL becomes less defense oriented.

He's still young at 24 but how many players have increased their gpg output by more than 35% after the age of 24? I think Brett Hull did it so it ain't impossible but I wouldn't bet heavily on this.

I like his odds of scoring 500 in his career better than his odds of scoring 50 in one season. Which is still awesome, by the way. Not every player can be as gifted as Sundin, who apparently was better than Jagr based on another thread I've followed on your board.

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Old
07-18-2012, 05:11 PM
  #83
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I really do believe he can hit 50 one day.

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07-18-2012, 05:14 PM
  #84
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He should probably hit 40 first and then talk to BB about better linemates. (aside from lupul)

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07-18-2012, 05:39 PM
  #85
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50 goal players are special dedicated players.


Kessel may get 40 to 44 goals tops

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07-18-2012, 05:56 PM
  #86
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Originally Posted by Leaf Lander View Post
50 goal players are special dedicated players.


Kessel may get 40 to 44 goals tops
What if he's dedicated to scoring goals?

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07-18-2012, 05:59 PM
  #87
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ACC1224 View Post
What if he's dedicated to scoring goals?

He better eat his wheaties

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07-18-2012, 06:02 PM
  #88
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Originally Posted by Leaf Lander View Post
50 goal players are special dedicated players.
I heard PPG players are.

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07-18-2012, 06:14 PM
  #89
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LordCyrez View Post
It's funny that someone brought up Mike Gartner cuz I think him and Kessel are similar.

I think Kessel will hit 50 one year. But I think he'll make a career of consistently being in the 35-45 year after year, like Gartner.

Problem with Kessel is when he goes into funks he disappears and it takes him a while to get out.
Even last year? I thought Kessel was arguably our most consistent player last year.

I think if a few pieces fall into place like a solid #1 center playmaker, good health for him and linemates and a above average shooting percentage I think he should be able to make a good run for 50. But a more realistic goal would be for 2-3 40 goal seasons before he starts declining.

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07-18-2012, 06:14 PM
  #90
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Marc Savard got him 36 goals in 70 games, and hes a much better player now. Get him a legit #1 center and i see him hitting it a few times, not consistently tho

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07-18-2012, 06:20 PM
  #91
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When should be pencil in 50 goals beside Kessel?

2012-2013
2013-2014
2014-2015
2022-2023

Let's say he can do it, do you think it will be in his prime, or with the Leafs?

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07-18-2012, 06:22 PM
  #92
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Originally Posted by ULF_55 View Post
When should be pencil in 50 goals beside Kessel?

2012-2013
2013-2014
2014-2015
2022-2023

Let's say he can do it, do you think it will be in his prime, or with the Leafs?
Things a little boring for you?

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Old
07-18-2012, 06:36 PM
  #93
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Things a little boring for you?
Probably.

Keep hearing he could if but except not his fault ...

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07-18-2012, 06:36 PM
  #94
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He might a couple times but scoring keeps going down. I mean, how many have hit 50 the past few years? But he can be a 40+ goal threat consistently which is good enough.

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07-18-2012, 06:40 PM
  #95
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If he can get 37 goals with Bozak as his center, there is no reason to believe he couldn't with a #1 playmaking center. If he played on a line with Spezza, Crosby, Malkin, Sedin, Giroux, Thornton, or any of those types of players, he would at least once in his career.

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07-18-2012, 06:40 PM
  #96
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No reason to think otherwise; unquestionably a special talent in the NHL. Wonder how many that dont believe it possible, are still star struck with mystery first rounders, and have an abnormal hate for for an NHL GM they have never met?

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07-18-2012, 07:01 PM
  #97
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not with the system carlyle is going to use. matching lines, defence 1st.
its not going to be wide open hockey this year.
i'd give him max 35 this year and playes alot better in his own zone, or he will get less ice time

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07-18-2012, 07:13 PM
  #98
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Originally Posted by ULF_55 View Post
Probably.

Keep hearing he could if but except not his fault ...
Nah, you're probably right, he is 24 or so after all, we've seen all were gonna see.

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07-18-2012, 07:14 PM
  #99
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Quote:
Originally Posted by number72 View Post
I'm not the person blaming Kessel sub 40 or 50 goal production on the lack of #1C.

You seem confused - you say he does not a 1C and than contradict yourself and say Staal/Backes would be perfect.




Not a current player but Gartner had something like 15 x 30 goal seasons but that talked to his season to season consistency rather than him being an elite scorer.
So he contradicts himself by throwing in a #2 c in Staal?

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07-18-2012, 07:19 PM
  #100
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Originally Posted by ULF_55 View Post
Probably.

Keep hearing he could if but except not his fault ...
For those who need to create a sense of shame for Kessel for not scoring 50 goals by now?

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