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Can Kessel statistically reach 50 goals?

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07-18-2012, 09:13 AM
  #1
Hotlanta
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Can Kessel statistically reach 50 goals?

Sorry if this doesn't deserve its own thread but looking at Kessel's statistics, can he statistically become a consistent 50 goal scorer?

2012:
Shot % 12.5
Shots 295
Kessel would have needed to shoot at a 17% success rate (1.5% higher then his best Shot%, he had with Boston) or have taken 400 shots, 61 more then Malkin's league high.

The most realistic way for him to reach 50 goals would be to increase his Shot% to 14.5% and increase his shots to 340 but then would he be compromising on his passing abilities?

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07-18-2012, 09:15 AM
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Why not?

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07-18-2012, 09:18 AM
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It's a very difficult task to hit 50 goals in today's NHL. He has the skill but he just isn't at the level of the Malkins and Stamkos-es of the world. Even 40 is a challenge. He needs consistency to get close which means no long cold streaks that are inevitable for most goal scorers.

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07-18-2012, 09:18 AM
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If he had a playmaking center,........absolutley!!!

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07-18-2012, 09:18 AM
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I think he can. Look at the numbers he's put up with Bozak as the #1 C.

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07-18-2012, 09:22 AM
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How does shooting % work exactily? Is it number of goals/number of shots, with shots only reffering to shots on net? If so, you would have to look at his shot attempts (which would include posts, misses and blocked shots) with respect to goals. That would be a lower shooting percentage (probably under 10%) and one would think a slight increase in that percentage could net him another 10-15 goals.

However, in today's NHL it takes a special player to hit 50. I thinmk even 40 is quite the accomplishment (probably equal to scoring 50 20 years ago). I say he's a perennial threat for 40, but only really see Crosby, Malkin, Stamkos and Ovechkin as threats for 50.

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07-18-2012, 09:24 AM
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Kessel has the ability to get 100 points, not just 50 goals. This little snippet of information will probably make some fans sad however.

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07-18-2012, 09:27 AM
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am for points, assist is just as good

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07-18-2012, 09:32 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thebluemachine View Post
Kessel has the ability to get 100 points, not just 50 goals. This little snippet of information will probably make some fans sad however.
I just think this 50 goal thing was a ridiculous pressure the media and fans put on him that is statistically imposible if Kessel wants to be a scoring and passing threat.

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07-18-2012, 09:34 AM
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He can do it if he get some playmaker at his side but I think he is more of a guy who can get that 100 close points due to him setting up players or those finishing shots that didn't go in.

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07-18-2012, 09:35 AM
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My bet is he'll have 1 or 2 seasons of 50 goals in his career but be closer to 35-40 goal scorer most seasons.

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07-18-2012, 09:48 AM
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He's one of the few players in the league I'd give a legitimate outside chance at getting to 50. Career year with a better C and it's certainly possible (using OP's numbers, 325 shots at 15.5% gets there).

I agree with others that there's a very small group with a much higher chance of getting 50 in a given year, but IMO Kessel is in the tier that can get there in a career year.

That being said, no one should need 50 from Kessel to be happy. Hovering in the 35-45 consistently is pretty darn good and should be well within reason if the Leafs can do a bit better than Bozak at C.

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07-18-2012, 09:53 AM
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Easy.

Put him with an elite playmaking centre, done, easy. He scored 36 in 70 games coming back from mono as a 20/21(?). And is the youngest current player to score 4 straight 30 goal seasons.

Put him on Pitts,

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07-18-2012, 10:02 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by devilishleafs View Post
If he had a playmaking center,........absolutley!!!
I'm going to actually put a different spin on this, I think Kessel would score 50 goals if we had a GOAL scoring center(like a E.Staal). The reason I think this is that when you have a play making center you know they are going to be looking for Kessel, teams can cheat on Kessel. When you have a goal scoring center you have to respect their shot and it forces you to stop cheating as much on Kessel. That simple change gives Kessel valuable seconds, even an extra second is all guys like Kessel, Semin, Ovechkin, Kovalchuk etc need to add another 5 or 10 goals a year.

The Beauty is that Kessel is an excellent play-maker and that goal scoring center would not only increase THEIR own totals, Kessel's points would increase quite substantially IMO

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07-18-2012, 10:02 AM
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If the Leafs were an Elite team with a top flight Center, yeah he's a 50 goal scorer. A lot would have to go right, but if he can do 37 on a bottom 5 team, then yeah he's probably a 50 goal scorer on a top 5 team.

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07-18-2012, 10:07 AM
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50 is a hell of a number but I fully expect him to hit 40, a few times. If he got a little stronger and just went through his opposition, a la Ovechkin, obviously anything is possible but it's highly doubtful.

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07-18-2012, 10:13 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Singh66 View Post
I'm going to actually put a different spin on this, I think Kessel would score 50 goals if we had a GOAL scoring center(like a E.Staal). The reason I think this is that when you have a play making center you know they are going to be looking for Kessel, teams can cheat on Kessel. When you have a goal scoring center you have to respect their shot and it forces you to stop cheating as much on Kessel. That simple change gives Kessel valuable seconds, even an extra second is all guys like Kessel, Semin, Ovechkin, Kovalchuk etc need to add another 5 or 10 goals a year.

The Beauty is that Kessel is an excellent play-maker and that goal scoring center would not only increase THEIR own totals, Kessel's points would increase quite substantially IMO
I think this is an interesting point. Having a pass-first centre means Kessel's line becomes a little predictable - perhaps this is a problem Connolly might have with them?

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07-18-2012, 10:41 AM
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Kessel's one of the best pure goalscorers in the game (not saying that's the only thing he can do). The only better ones in the league are: Stamkos, Ovie, Kovalchuck, Perry and maybe Gaborik.

He can score 50 in a season if everything goes right for him (i.e if he has a no. 1 playmaking C and no extended scoring droughts), but he's never going to be a perennial 50 goal man IMO.

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07-18-2012, 10:53 AM
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When Kessel was acquired 3 seasons ago he was 21 and had just scored 36 goals. Now he is 24 and has scored 37 goals (+1 goal improvement) on career best over 3 seasons, with seasons of 30 & 32 goals in between those two marks.

Trending shows consistency of recording 30ish goals a season, but not improvement over time and experience.

The league is getting more and more "defense first oriented" and goals for scored league wise is declining. Ron Wilson's offensive pond hockey style would benefit a goal scorer, whereas Carlyle's system will ask/demand Kessel to become a more complete 2-way player, and focus on his defensive responsibilities more then scoring more goals when better defense is expected from the Leafs overall.

We saw this effect already playing out last season where he scored 10 goals in 11 games in Oct, and 6 goals in 14 games in Nov giving him 16 goals after his first 25 games (.64 GPG pace), when Wilson was in charge.. He managed 21 over the rest of the year (57 games @ .37 GPG pace) to reach 37 total.. However where he finished he season in his last 18 games of the year in March and April under new coach Carlyle where he scored just 5 (.28 GPG pace = 23 goals in 82 games). Hot start and continual decline throughout the season, particularly under the new coach and system. How much Lupul's injury down the stretch the one factor we don't know how it impacted Kessel's goal production under Carlyle.

Kessel is a pure sniper with a great shot, so 40's goal range is achievable, with a little luck and few good bounces and breaks along the way, but all other aspects in play indicate downward pressure on his goal totals all things considered.

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07-18-2012, 10:56 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mess View Post
When Kessel was acquired 3 seasons ago he was 21 and scored 36 goals.

Now he is 24 and has scored 37 goals (+1 goal improvement on career best over 3 seasons, with seasons of 30 & 32 goals in between.

Trending shows consistency of recording 30ish goals a season, but not improvement.

The league is getting more and more "defense first oriented" and goals for scored league wise is declining. Ron Wilson's offensive pond hockey style would benefit a goal scorer, whereas Carlyle's system will ask/demand Kessel to become a more complete 2-way player, and focus on his defensive responsibilities more then scoring more goals when better defense is expected from the Leafs overall.

We saw this effect already playing out last season where he scored 10 goals in 11 games in Oct, and 6 goals in 14 games in Nov giving him 16 goals after his first 25 games (.64 GPG pace), when Wilson was in charge.. He managed 21 over the rest of the year (57 games @ .37 GPG pace) to reach 37 total.. However where he finished he season in his last 18 games of the year in March and April under new coach Carlyle where he scored just 5 (.28 GPG pace = 23 goals in 82 games). Hot start and continual decline throughout the season, particularly under the new coach and system. How much Lupul's injury down the stretch the one factor we don't know how it impacted Kessel's goal production under Carlyle.

Kessel is a pure sniper with a great shot, so 40's ge goal range is achievable, with a little luck and few good bounces and breaks along the way, but all other aspects in play indicate downward pressure on his goal totals all things considered.
Yet this defense oriented game plan did'nt stop Kessel from breaking out and being the 6th highest producing player in the NHL last season.

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07-18-2012, 10:58 AM
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People still call Kessel a pure goal scorer?

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07-18-2012, 11:01 AM
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Originally Posted by Leaf Rocket View Post
He can do it if he get some playmaker at his side but I think he is more of a guy who can get that 100 close points due to him setting up players or those finishing shots that didn't go in.
I tend to agree with this. Kessel is an underrated playmaker. I wonder if someone could put together a montage of sweet passes Bozak got that he didn't convert on.

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07-18-2012, 11:01 AM
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People still call Kessel a pure goal scorer?
Yeah, Stamkos is more of a pure goal scorer than Kessel.

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07-18-2012, 11:04 AM
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40 first. Hopefully he reaches that goal in the next season. 50 will be much tougher.

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07-18-2012, 11:09 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mess View Post
When Kessel was acquired 3 seasons ago he was 21 and had just scored 36 goals. Now he is 24 and has scored 37 goals (+1 goal improvement) on career best over 3 seasons, with seasons of 30 & 32 goals in between those two marks.

Trending shows consistency of recording 30ish goals a season, but not improvement over time and experience.

The league is getting more and more "defense first oriented" and goals for scored league wise is declining. Ron Wilson's offensive pond hockey style would benefit a goal scorer, whereas Carlyle's system will ask/demand Kessel to become a more complete 2-way player, and focus on his defensive responsibilities more then scoring more goals when better defense is expected from the Leafs overall.

We saw this effect already playing out last season where he scored 10 goals in 11 games in Oct, and 6 goals in 14 games in Nov giving him 16 goals after his first 25 games (.64 GPG pace), when Wilson was in charge.. He managed 21 over the rest of the year (57 games @ .37 GPG pace) to reach 37 total.. However where he finished he season in his last 18 games of the year in March and April under new coach Carlyle where he scored just 5 (.28 GPG pace = 23 goals in 82 games). Hot start and continual decline throughout the season, particularly under the new coach and system. How much Lupul's injury down the stretch the one factor we don't know how it impacted Kessel's goal production under Carlyle.

Kessel is a pure sniper with a great shot, so 40's goal range is achievable, with a little luck and few good bounces and breaks along the way, but all other aspects in play indicate downward pressure on his goal totals all things considered.
Kessel scored 36 goals on the Bruins playing with Marc Savard and Milan Lucic.

The fact that his numbers dropped the following year on the 2nd worst team in the league playing alongside far inferior linemates is not surprising. Every year since joining the Leafs Kessel's game, and statistical output has improved.

Don't forget that Kessel was able to score 36 goals while playing under Claude Julien who is a similar coach to Carlyle. You're right that Kessel's upside is most likely 40 goals, but if everything goes right for him he could have a 50 goal year.

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