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2012 Free Agency Thread - Part 127 (Vierzehn): Offer Sheet Match Edition

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07-19-2012, 11:19 AM
  #176
Captain Hook
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Sullivan and Michalek were top 6 forward and top 4 D in name only. They certainly didn't play like it. Sully needed a reduced role at his age and Michalek just didn't pan out here.

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07-19-2012, 11:20 AM
  #177
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Originally Posted by cassius View Post
I think you guys are in a bit of denial about this. From a financial perspective, it will be extremely tough for Nashville to match that offer.

I see this going down just like the Phil Kessel situation.
Keep in mind they have $8.4M in additional revenues to spend that they didn't have before (new arena lease deal), minus Suter's cap hit... they can pay this. It's only a question of whether they think it's smart.

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07-19-2012, 11:21 AM
  #178
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Originally Posted by Eyes of Orpik View Post
You would think the Pens downgraded so far, but we actually improved some areas of the team.

Vokoun > Johnson - Tomas Vokoun is a starting goalie who will help Fleury with the work load, also should help keep Fleury consistant because there's a guy on the bench whose capable of being a starter.

Glass > Asham - I liked Asham, but he wasn't effective for us, he added some goals and he's a good fighter. But Glass helps out this team in terms of physicality, PK, and while he's not the fighter Asham is, he still drops the gloves.

Obviosuly Staal > Sutter - Think of their roles though. Jordan Staal was more focused on having an expanded offensive role rather than being a shutdown center. Sutter is a 3rd line, shutdown center who has potential to score 20 goals, 40 points, etc.

Shero can still make a move to improve the team, off season isn't over yet. We lost Steve Sullivan but he can be replaced. Zbynek Michalek was traded so that Niskanen (and maybe Despres) can move to the top 4.
Great points.

Our young defensemen have also had another year to mature. I could see Strait, Bortuzzo, Despres, and/or Dumoulin having roles on this team.

And FA is still not over. Shero could still bring in a winger.

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07-19-2012, 11:21 AM
  #179
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Originally Posted by cassius View Post
I think you guys are in a bit of denial about this. From a financial perspective, it will be extremely tough for Nashville to match that offer.

I see this going down just like the Phil Kessel situation.
Bull****. Whether or not they do match it, they've got the money. Structure aside, the Preds were prepared to pay Suter AND Weber 15M+ per year. Why can't the Preds give Weber 14M and one of their highly touted prospects on an ELC 1M?

Math works just fine. Stings for four years, then things ease up.

And, push comes to shove, Poile will retain the right to trade Weber anywhere he wants and at any time after as little as one year passes. With that contract, teams will give up the farm to Poile. Young talent, great contracts, etc . . . the names we hear people asking for Nash and Ryan, well teams will be tripping over themselves to give that for a SIGNED Weber for less than a 8M per year cap hit.

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07-19-2012, 11:21 AM
  #180
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Originally Posted by Captain Hook View Post
Sullivan and Michalek were top 6 forward and top 4 D in name only. They certainly didn't play like it. Sully needed a reduced role at his age and Michalek just didn't pan out here.
I agree. I feel pretty confident Despres will replace Z just fine and probably with more of a physical presence and more of an offensive one. The D is likely to be improved over all, even though Despres will have his bad nights being a rookie. Sully's loss will hurt the PP some, but offset by a healthy Crosby. Overall I'd say we're better in G and on balance about the same offensively and defensively to start, and by mid-season probably a little better defensively.

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07-19-2012, 11:23 AM
  #181
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for those that are saying we didn't do anything this off-season, I have a very complicated set of diagrams that can hopefully explain how we still have a shot at salvaging this mess of a season.





I know they are complicated, but I have faith that you can figure them out.

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07-19-2012, 11:23 AM
  #182
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Originally Posted by cassius View Post
We lost a top 6 winger (Sullivan) and lost a top 4 D-man (Michalek). I'm not trying to be a negative nancy at all, but there is no way to say that we somehow got better. The team got worse.

If we sign Semin or Doan, yeah then that definitely changes things... and I don't see why bringing up Suter/Parise is relevant at all. They are long gone and history. I could care less if Shero tried to sign them - the simple fact is that we didn't and now they are no longer an option. So why waste words talking about them?
"Originally Posted by cassius
Going after Parise and actually snaring him are two different things. The simple fact is that we're a contending team with a lot of pressure to win and we actually got worse this off-season."


I was responding to your post which mentioned Parise so that is the relevance. I guess it is only relevant if RS actually signs him. Once he does not get him it becomes a failure?? Agree to disagree with your assessment of the Pens "so far" this off season.

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07-19-2012, 11:24 AM
  #183
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Originally Posted by KIRK View Post
The net effect of losing Sullivan and Michalek is small. The net effect of Staal to Sutter is larger. This team is worse. This team is no closer to what should be a give Sid and Geno two good wingers each model. BUT, we're less than a month along . . . I think a lot of people are saying let's see if we're in the same place in a few months.

I'm shocked-- a little, but not entirely with you-- that you'd be on suicide watch already.
I'm not on suicide watch... unless analyzing our off-season in relation to our main rival is considered suicide watch.

At the end of the day, I'm just a realist.

I mean really - if the Flyers end up signing Weber.. how can you disagree with any of the points I outlined? We got worse and they got better - plain and simple.

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07-19-2012, 11:24 AM
  #184
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Originally Posted by Chancellor Vitale View Post
Keep in mind they have $8.4M in additional revenues to spend that they didn't have before (new arena lease deal), minus Suter's cap hit... they can pay this. It's only a question of whether they think it's smart.
It's smart, however you look at it.

The trade value of Weber in 12 months, with THAT contract, will be astronomical.

Or, as I think, they can keep him until he's like 33 or 34 years old. Even then, on the merits, teams will stumble over each other just based on the merits. Add in that you'd be talking a deal paying about 4.5M a year on average with just under a 8M cap hit, and cash strapped teams or teams like Columbus that can never get anyone will make monster offers even for a Weber starting to decline.

QUESTION: Would the 2nd year 13M signing bonus be due before the Preds could move him? It's due day one, but they could trade him day one after 12 months.

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07-19-2012, 11:26 AM
  #185
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How long does Nashville have to match? I can't take any more of this high drama.

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07-19-2012, 11:26 AM
  #186
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cassius View Post
I'm not on suicide watch... unless analyzing our off-season in relation to our main rival is considered suicide watch.

At the end of the day, I'm just a realist.

I mean really - if the Flyers end up signing Weber.. how can you disagree with any of the points I outlined? We got worse and they got better - plain and simple.
they would have gotten better. you are right on that point for sure.

but until the offseason is over, you can't say we got worse this off-season. That's using past tense to talk about the future. If you would please refer to the diagrams above, they may help you understand better.

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07-19-2012, 11:26 AM
  #187
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Originally Posted by Ogrezilla View Post
I know they are complicated, but I have faith that you can figure them out.
Those grids... they share many of the same numbers in a common pattern.

What does it MEAN?! I'm not saying Aliens have anything to do with this, but...

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07-19-2012, 11:27 AM
  #188
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Originally Posted by cassius View Post
I think you guys are in a bit of denial about this. From a financial perspective, it will be extremely tough for Nashville to match that offer.

I see this going down just like the Phil Kessel situation.
Nashville is under the Cap Floor so they have to spend a good portion of it anyway. They can always trade him in one year for probably a bigger package than was being offered currently, seing he was an RFA, and certainly more NHL ready assets than 4 #1 draft picks. To me it is a no brainer for the Preds!!

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07-19-2012, 11:27 AM
  #189
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I think people are going to be surprised with what Sutter can bring. He brings a far better defensive game than Staal did last season and puts up 20 goals easily IMO. Hell get more offensive opportunity here with our system, quality of linemates and spot PP time as a RHS.

Vokoun is a genius move. He's not as good as he once was, but he'll allow Flower to be fresh come postseason and if he underachieves again, Vokoun can win us games.

We absolutely needed a guy like Glass. Someone who's a simple north/south player and hits.

Management saying Despres and the young guns will step up is an improvement by itself. Pair that with some coaching changes to the way we defend, and we're a better team in that regard.

Give Sid his winger. Promote Tangradi. We have our lineup set.

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07-19-2012, 11:27 AM
  #190
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Originally Posted by KIRK View Post
Bull****. Whether or not they do match it, they've got the money. Structure aside, the Preds were prepared to pay Suter AND Weber 15M+ per year. Why can't the Preds give Weber 14M and one of their highly touted prospects on an ELC 1M?

Math works just fine. Stings for four years, then things ease up.

And, push comes to shove, Poile will retain the right to trade Weber anywhere he wants and at any time after as little as one year passes. With that contract, teams will give up the farm to Poile. Young talent, great contracts, etc . . . the names we hear people asking for Nash and Ryan, well teams will be tripping over themselves to give that for a SIGNED Weber for less than a 8M per year cap hit.
We'll see what happens..... for the record I think the Flyers will end up it pulling off. I guess we'll see in a week who was right.

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07-19-2012, 11:28 AM
  #191
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Originally Posted by cassius View Post
We'll see what happens..... for the record I think the Flyers will end up pulling off. I guess we'll see in a week who was right.
at this point the Flyers can't do anything but sit and wait right?

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07-19-2012, 11:28 AM
  #192
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Originally Posted by Chancellor Vitale View Post
Those grids... they share many of the same numbers in a common pattern.

What does it MEAN?! I'm not saying Aliens have anything to do with this, but...

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07-19-2012, 11:29 AM
  #193
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Originally Posted by KIRK View Post
QUESTION: Would the 2nd year 13M signing bonus be due before the Preds could move him? It's due day one, but they could trade him day one after 12 months.
That I don't know. If NHL players don't get paychecks during the summer (?), then I suppose you could say that second bonus is due the first pay period of the season, which would be after the 12 month mark, so... yah they could hypothetically not have to pay that if they trade him next summer. That's if players don't get checks 12 months a year. If they do, I'm not sure how it would work.


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Originally Posted by bathroomSTAAL View Post
How long does Nashville have to match? I can't take any more of this high drama.
A week.

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07-19-2012, 11:30 AM
  #194
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Originally Posted by Ogrezilla View Post
at this point the Flyers can't do anything but sit and wait right?
Yep - Nashville has a week to match.

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07-19-2012, 11:31 AM
  #195
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Originally Posted by cassius View Post
I'm not on suicide watch... unless analyzing our off-season in relation to our main rival is considered suicide watch.

At the end of the day, I'm just a realist.

I mean really - if the Flyers end up signing Weber.. how can you disagree with any of the points I outlined? We got worse and they got better - plain and simple.
cassius - the word in Philly before this morning was that Philly got significantly worse this summer. Pronger, Carle, Jagr gone. The JVR/Schenn trade could go either way.

Sure they improve if Weber goes there but everything I'm reading makes it sound like Nashville will match.

Shero went after Parise and Suter, wanted them both. The rest of the market sucks this summer. I'm sure he's working on other things but you can only take what's out there.

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07-19-2012, 11:31 AM
  #196
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Not sure if this is an "overly pessimistic" read, or not, but reading that statement from the Predators regarding the Weber offer sheet, it sounds like they are saying "While we intended to match any offer sheet that would be made to Shea, this one is, ahh, more difficult than we expected...and we are not sure at this point that we want to/can match...

The statement sounded to me like they were not expecting any offer sheet to be one that specifically attempted to handcuff them, in the way that the offer from Philly tries to do.

I sure do hope they match, as this would be a HUGE coup for the Flyers, IMO (and, a blow to the Pens Cup chances over the next couple of years).

Steve

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07-19-2012, 11:32 AM
  #197
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Originally Posted by Ogrezilla View Post
Hartnell - Giroux - Voracek
Simmons - Schenn - Brierre
Read - Couturier - Fedatenko
Rinaldo - Talbot - Wellwood
Zolnierczyk

ya, they'll be OK
Ya, roll forward a couple seasons without 1sts (for 4 seasons) and one less contract spot until 16/17.

Ya, they'll be fine for a season with no injuries.

Big picture means looking past this season coming up. Granted Weber is the kind of player to take a chance like that, but it hardly doesn't come without cost. Big ones.

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07-19-2012, 11:33 AM
  #198
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So, from reading The Official Statement from Nashville, I got the impression that they're prepared to match, but want to look the offer over to make sure it's kosher ... wouldn't surprise me, either if they're looking to see if they can get the NHL to reject the offer out of hand.

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07-19-2012, 11:35 AM
  #199
cassius
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Originally Posted by WVP View Post
cassius - the word in Philly before this morning was that Philly got significantly worse this summer. Pronger, Carle, Jagr gone. The JVR/Schenn trade could go either way.

Sure they improve if Weber goes there but everything I'm reading makes it sound like Nashville will match.

Shero went after Parise and Suter, wanted them both. The rest of the market sucks this summer. I'm sure he's working on other things but you can only take what's out there.
I have no strong opinion on the JVR/Schenn trade - they both strike me as decent young players who probably needed a change of scenery.

If they don't end up signing Weber? I'll absolutely agree with you that they probably got slightly worse.

But if they do manage to sign Weber? It could be one of the biggest coups in NHL history. It's very rare that your rival acquires the #1 defenseman in the league without giving up any players on their roster. We'll see how this all plays out once the dust settles...


Last edited by cassius: 07-19-2012 at 11:40 AM.
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07-19-2012, 11:36 AM
  #200
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So, from reading The Official Statement from Nashville, I got the impression that they're prepared to match, but want to look the offer over to make sure it's kosher ... wouldn't surprise me, either if they're looking to see if they can get the NHL to reject the offer out of hand.
Was thinking the same thing. Have to believe the NHL will not look at this closely as it is a lot of up front money and nothing ($1M per) the last four years (if I read it right)!!

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